Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

Iraq Survey Group Final Report

30 September 2004


Please see the correction regarding Niro Atomizer Inc.

In March 2005, the Special Advisor added addenda to his original report:

Note for the Comprehensive Report with Addenda

Addendums to the Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq's WMD [PDF]




Volume I

Cover Page
Transmittal Message
Acknowledgements
Cover Page 2
Scope Note

Regime Strategic Intent
Contents
Key Findings 1
Who Made Iraq's Strategic Decisions and Determined WMD Policy 5
Saddam's Place in the Regime 5
The Apex of Power 5
Personalized Rule 5
Saddam's Unsettled Lieutenants 5
A Few Key Players in an Insular Environment 7
Saddam Calls the Shots 8
Saddam Shows the Way 9
Harvesting Ideas and Advice in a Byzantine Setting 10
Weaving a Culture of Lies 11
Saddam Became Increasingly Inaccessible 11
Saddam's Command By Violence 12
Saddam's Effect on the Workings of the Iraqi Government 13
Suspicion of Structures 13
Powerless Structures 13
The Higher Committee 14
The Foreign Policy Committees 15
Saddam's Grip on National Security and WMD Development 16
Saddam Holding Court 18
Saddam and Fiscal Policy 18
How Saddam Saw His Subordinates 19
Mining Respect and Expertise 19
Mutuality of Fear 19
Dazzled by Science 19
How Saddam Saw Himself 21
Saddam's Psychology 21
Saddam's Personal Security 21
Saddam the Dynasty Founder 21
Saddam and His Sense of Legacy 22
Desire . . . Dominance and Deterrence Through WMD 23
Saddam's Role in WMD Policy 23
What Saddam Thought: The Perceived Successes of WMD 24
What Saddam Thought: External Concerns 28
Iran 29
Israel 31
The United States 31
WMD Possession-Real or Imagined-Acts as a Deterrent 34
Saddam's Prioritization of Getting Out From Under Sanctions 34
Efforts To Lift Sanctions 35
Realizing Saddam's Veiled WMD Intent 41
Regime Strategy and WMD Timeline 41
Ambition (1980-1991) 41
Decline (1991-1996) 42
Scientific Research and Intention to Reconstitute WMD 44
Reaction to Sanctions 44
Husayn Kamil's Departure 46
Cooperating With UNSCOM While Preserving WMD 47
Recovery (1996-1998) 48
Impact of the "Chicken Farm" Documents 49
Looking Ahead to Resume WMD Programs 49
Guarding WMD Capabilities 51
Iraq's Internal Monitoring Apparatus: The NMD and MIC Programs 53
Suspending Cooperation With UNSCOM 55
Transition (1998-2001) 56
Nullifying All Obligations To UNSC Resolutions 57
Preserving and Restoring WMD Infrastructure and Expertise 59
Pumping Up Key Revenue Streams 60
Miscalculation (2002-2003) 61
Renewing UN Inspections 63
Iraq's Other Security Concerns 64
Sorting Out Whether Iraq Had WMD Before Operation Iraqi Freedom 64
Alternative Hypotheses on Iraq's Nonuse of WMD During Operation Iraqi Freedom 66
Annexes
A. The Quartet-Influence and Disharmony Among Saddam's Lieutenants 69
B. Iraq's Intelligence Services 73
C. Iraq's Security Services 85
D. Saddam's Personal Involvement in WMD Planning 97

Regime Finance and Procurement
Contents
A Word on the Scope of This Chapter 1
Key Findings 3
Chapter Summary 7
The Regime Timeline 9
Ambition (1980-91 9
Decline (1991-96) 9
Recovery (1996-98) 9
Transition and Miscalculation (1999-2003) 10
Directing and Budgeting Iraq's Illicit Procurement 11
Overview 11
President and Presidential Secretary's Role in Illicit Procurement 11
Presidential Diwan's Role in Illicit Procurement 12
Diwan's Role in Supplemental Funding of Government Ministries 12
Extent of Knowledge of the Former President of the Diwan 13
Budgeting Iraqi Procurement 14
General Government Budget 14
Sources of Government Revenue 14
Supplemental Budgetary Process 14
Supplemental Budget Submission Procedure 14
Approval and Authorization of Supplemental Funding 16
Disbursal of Supplemental Funds 18
Financing Iraq's Illicit Procurement 19
Overview 19
Iraqi Economy's Role in Illicit Procurement 19
Economic Ambition (1980-91) 19
Economic Decline (1991-96) 21
Economic Recovery (1997-99) 22
Economic Transition and Miscalculation (1999-2003) 22
Iraq's Revenue Sources 22
Bilateral Trade Protocols 24
Phases of the UN OFF Program 28
Disposition of UN OFF Funds 28
Oil Voucher Process 29
Secret Voucher Recipients 30
Iraqi Oil Vouchers Provided to International Leaders 31
American and British Oil Voucher Recipients 33
Benon Sevan's Use of Iraqi Oil Vouchers 33
Iraqi Intelligence Service Nominations for Oil Vouchers 33
Oil Export Surcharges 33
How Surcharges Were Collected 35
Kickbacks on Commercial Goods Import Contracts 35
Private-Sector Oil Sales 37
Role of the SOMO 38
SOMO's Relationship to the MoO 40
Official Oil Accounts 40
Banking and the Transfer of Financial Assets for Procurement 45
CBI 45
CBI's Role in Licensing Money Exchangers 45
CBI's Role in Tracking Foreign Accounts for Iraq 46
Iraqi Bank Holdings 47
Funding of the Ministries 47
The Use of Foreign Banks 48
Use of Banks in Lebanon 49
Use of Banks in Jordan 49
Use of Banks in Syria 50
Use of Banks in Turkey 50
Use of Banks in Egypt 50
Use of Banks in Belarus 50
Regime Attempts To Recover Funds Prior to OIF 51
The Role of Cash Transactions 51
Iraq's Gold Reserves 51
Executing Illicit Procurement in Iraq: Ministries, Commissions, and Front Companies 53
Overview 53
Ministry of Foreign Affairs 53
MFA-IIS Connections 54
MFA's UN Sanctions Counter-Strategy 55
MFA and Iraq's Bilateral Protocols 56
Ministry of Trade 56
MoT's Role in Procurement 57
Facilitating Illicit Procurement With Cover Contracts 58
Facilitating Illicit Trade Through Commercial Attaches 58
Ministry of Defense 61
MoD Procurement Leadership 61
MoD Procurement Directorates 61
Budgeting and Financing Military Procurement 62
MoD Procurement Process 63
Procurement for the Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard 64
Military Industrialization Commission 65
Procurement Leadership in the MIC 65
MIC: Benefi ciary of Illicit Funds 66
MIC Banking and Financing 66
Items Procured via the MIC's Link to Iraqi Intelligence 69
MIC Front Companies 72
Iraqi Intelligence Service 77
IIS Procurement Leadership and Mission 77
IIS Procurement Cooperation with Foreign Intelligence Services 79
Items Procured by the IIS 79
IIS Front Companies 80
Special Security Organization 82
SSO Procurement Leadership and Mission 82
Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission 82
Ministry of Transport and Communication 83
Mission and Key Procurement Companies under the MoTC 83
Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research 84
University Collaboration With MIC 84
Exploitation of Academic Exchanges for Procurement 85
Ministry of Agriculture 85
Ministry of Interior 86
Front Company Conglomerates: Al-Eman and Al-Handal 86
The Al-Eman Network 88
Al-Handal General Trading Company 90
Supplying Iraq With Prohibited Commodities 93
Overview 93
Procurement Suppliers During the Decline Phase, 1991 to 1996 93
Romania 93
Ukraine 95
Jordan 100
Procurement Suppliers During the Recovery Phase, 1996 to 1998 102
Syria 102
Turkey 104
South Korea 107
People's Republic of China 108
France 111
Former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia 112
Bulgaria 113
Procurement Suppliers in the Transition and Miscalculation Phases, 1998 to 2003 116
Russia 116
North Korea 119
Transportation Routes From North Korea to Iraq 121
Payment Methods for North Korean Contracts 121
Poland 121
Methods Used To Hide Transshipment to Iraq 121
Polish-Iraqi Procurement Financial Flows 122
India 122
Belarus 125
Key Belarusian Individuals Linked to Illicit Trade With Iraq 126
Materials, Equipment and Services Provided by Belarus 127
Payments From Iraq to Belarus 129
Taiwan 129
Egypt 130
Yemen 131
Opening Conventional Trade With Yemen for Oil and Cash 131
Yemen Emerges as an Intermediary for Iraqi Illicit Imports 132
Importing Prohibited Commodities 133
Overview 133
Deceptive Trade Practices Supporting Illicit Procurement 133
Use of Trade Intermediaries 133
Disguising the Nature of Prohibited Goods 134
Consealing the Identity of Commodities 135
Discussing the Commodity's Destination 137
Use of Illicit Smuggling and Transportation Networks 137
Smuggling by Air 138
Smuggling by Land 138
Smuggling by Sea 139
Smuggling via Jordanian Ports 139
Smuggling via Syrian Ports 142
Smuggling via the Arabian Gulf 142
Annexes
A. Translations of Iraq's Bilateral Trade Protocols 145
B. Known Oil Voucher Recipients 167
C. Iraq's Budgetary Process 201
D. Iraq Economic Data 207
E. Illicit Earnings Sources and Estimation Methodology 217
F. Iraqi Oil Smuggling 221
G. Iraq's Banking System 251
H. UN Security Council Resolutions Applicable to Iraq 257
I. Suspected WMD-Related Dual-Use Goods and Procurement Teransactions 261
J. The Procurement of Conventional Military Goods in Breach of UN Sanctions 267
K. Suspected Intermediary and Front Companies Associated With Iraq 291
L. Procurement Acronyms 295

Regime Strategy and WMD Timeline Events




Volume II

Cover Page

Delivery Systems
Contents
Key Findings 1
Evolution of Iraq's Delivery Systems 3
The Regime Strategy and WMD Timeline 3
Ambition (1980-91) 3
Decline (1991-96) 4
Recovery (1996-98) 5
Miscalculation (2002-2003) 7
Resolving the Retained Scud-Variant Missile Question 9
Liquid-Propellant Missile Developments 9
Al Samud II 10
Al Samud Warhead 14
Al Samud II Warhead 16
Solid-Propellant Missile Developments 17
Al Fat'h Missile Program 17
Background 17
General Characteristics 18
Propulsion 18
Guidance and Control 19
Warhead 21
Testing 25
Material Balance 25
Conclusions 28
Al 'Ubur Missile Program 28
Background 28
Propulsion 29
Guidance and Control 29
Warhead 30
Testing 30
Conclusions 30
Other Composite Solid-Propellant Systems 30
Long-Range Ballistic Missile Projects 31
Clustering SA-2/Volga Engines Designs 31
SA-2 Conversions to Surface-to-Surface Missiles 35
Large-Diameter Solid-Propellant Missile Project 35
Program Development 35
New Cruise Missile Projects 37
HY-2 Range Extension 37
Propulsion System 39
Warhead 39
Guidance and Control 39
Conclusions 39
The Jinin [Jenin] Project 39
Propulsion System 40
Warhead 41
Guidance and Control 41
Conclusions 41
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs) 41
Brief History 42
MiG-21 RPV 42
Background 42
Roles and Missions 44
L-29 RPV (Al Bay'ah) 44
Background 44
Roles and Missions 44
Huwaysh's Accounting of the L-29 RPV Program 45
Conclusions 46
Al Yamamah Project 46
Background 46
Ibn-Firnas UAVs 47
Background 47
Characteristics 47
Missions 48
Foreign Assistance 48
Conclusions 51
Al Quds UAV Program 52
Background 52
Characteristics 55
Missions 55
Conclusions 56
Procurement Supporting Iraq's Delivery Systems 56
Infrastructure Improvements and Technology Developments 67
Static Test-Firing Facilities 67
Solid-Propellant Rocket Motor Case Manufacture 67
Propellant Production 67
Solid-Propellant Motor Casting Chambers 68
Production of Solid-Propellant Ingredients 68
Propellant Research 68
Graphite Technology 69
Carbon Fiber Filament Winding 69
Ceramic Warhead Effort? 70
Proscribed Activities 70
Violations of United Nations Sanctions and Resolutions 71
Equipment Restoration. 71
Undeclared Activities 72
Role of the MTCR 74
Annexes
A. Resolving the Retained Scud-Variant Missile Question 77