Iraq Survey Group Final Report

 

Delivery Systems
Annex A

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Resolving the Retained Scud-Variant Missile Question

Introduction

The data in this Annex are complementary to and in support of the material found in the Delivery Systems Report and as such should be referenced only in conjunction with that Report. Items in this Annex address specific topics that are presented in the Report but include greater detail or additional data, and provide more information to support the contentions and arguments in the main text.

1.1 Scud Missile Material Balance

Documentation recovered by ISG appears to be an Iraqi attempt to account for its Scud missiles. This material reportedly was never disclosed to the UN. The documentation includes the serial numbers for all 819 Scud missiles Iraq received from the Soviet Union between 1972 and 1988, contract numbers, and the disposition of these missiles broken down by serial number. Also included are two figures: the first entitled “Inventory Account of Used Rockets Provided by Russia (Declaration)” represents the Scud missile account as given to the UN; the second figure entitled “Inventory Account of Used Rockets Provided by Russia (Facts)” is, according to the engineer, the most accurate accounting for Iraq’s Scud missiles. The numbers in this second figure vary from the numbers Iraq disclosed in its 2002 Currently Accurate Full, and Complete Declaration (CAFCD) to the UN, and the explanation for the discrepancy in the numbers is provided in these documents. According to the source of this information, these documents represent the full story on Scud missile material balance. This material was most likely prepared to support a presentation at the Technical Evaluation Meetings (TEMs) held in Baghdad in early 1998.

Available data suggest that Iraq’s declaration of its unilateral destruction to the UN was assembled from eyewitness accounts rather than by matching up serial numbers. The Regime officials who participated in this effort supposedly interviewed more than 100 army personnel and other individuals who saw or claimed to have seen the disposition of the Scud missiles at some time. The method in which this information was derived was susceptible to error and, as such, should likely not have been forwarded to the UN as the official position.

Figure 2 reportedly contains Iraq’s most accurate accounting for its Scud missiles. The figures in the chart are supported by the serial numbers contained in some of the other documents. The total number of missiles listed in the accounting is 816 vice 819, and an explanation was attempted, shown in the following inset.

ISG assesses that the accounting for missiles 853648 and 866417 is still incomplete.

Below is the breakdown for all 819 SCUD-B missiles according to the year of delivery and serial number. This information is reflected in Figure 2.

1.2 Scud Warhead Material Balance

ISG has collected an official National Monitoring Directorate (NMD) document, dated 12 December 1997, on the expenditure of Scud warheads imported from the Soviet Union, which differs from the figures provided in the 1996 Full, Final, and Complete Disclosure (FFCD). These FFCD data are also repeated in the 2002 CAFCD. The NMD document is most likely part of that organization’s effort to reconcile the material for imported Scud warheads. Although unable to verify information, ISG judges that this is a factual accounting for the 819 Scud warheads Iraq imported from the Soviet Union.

As with the data in for missile consumption (Section 1.1), this material was most likely prepared to support a presentation at the Warhead Technical Evaluation Meeting (TEM) held in Baghdad between the 1st and 6th February 1998.

Following the acceptance of UNSCR 687, Iraq was forced to destroy its remaining inventory of Scud missiles, warheads, and related equipment. Iraq had imported 819 warheads from the Soviet Union and had succeeded in producing warheads indigenously. During the period of warhead destruction, the distinction between the imported warheads and the indigenously produced warheads became unclear, and thus a full and accurate accounting for the destruction of imported and indigenously produced Scud warheads has never been reconciled.

• According to the NMD accounting (Tables 1 & 2), Iraq fired 87 imported warheads and six indigenously produced warheads (presumably concrete warheads for the Al Hijarah missiles) during the 1991 Gulf War. In the 1996 FFCD and the CAFCD, Iraq declared that it had fired 88 imported warheads and 5 indigenously produced Al Hijarah warheads. This leaves a discrepancy of one imported warhead.
• In the 1996 FFCD and the CAFCD, the Iraqis declared that they unilaterally destroyed 119 imported warheads. This NMD document shows only 118 had been destroyed.
  
• The disagreement between the numbers provided in the 1996 FFCD and the CAFCD, and this NMD document for the “special” CBW warheads destroyed by the Chemical Destruction Group, (CDG), is the largest. During this destruction of warheads, an accurate accounting for the number of imported versus indigenously produced warheads was never achieved.
  

This is a comparison of the figures derived from the NMD document and the 2002 CAFCD.

Official NMD document with the expenditure of 819 imported Scud warheads.