At the Front

Major Russian Offensive Operations

Russia fired its largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the war began on the night of September 6-7, 2025, setting the main government building in central Kyiv ablaze. At least four people, including an infant, were killed and dozens wounded across the country as Russia launched more than 800 drones and 13 missiles in the attacks. Russia launched 805 drones into Ukraine overnight and 13 missiles, with Ukrainian defence units downing 751 drones and four missiles.

The roof and upper floors of Ukraine's cabinet of ministers building, the seat of the government in Kyiv, were damaged in the Russian strike. "For the first time, the government building was damaged by an enemy attack, including the roof and upper floors," said Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. The attack on the Ukrainian government building was described as a "very worrying development because this is the governmental district of Kyiv, the area that is considered probably the most strongly protected in all of Ukraine by the country's air defences."

Russian Troop Redeployments and Force Concentration

The Russian Armed Forces carried out the largest troop redeployment since the Battle of Kiev in 2022. Airborne and marine units from the Sumy region have arrived in the Pokrovsk direction, and now a motorized rifle division from the Kherson region has been added to the Chasov Yar area. Ukrainian observers claim that the Russian Armed Forces plan to deploy the 7th Airborne Division with four additional regiments in the Zaporizhia region, supported by motorized rifle units.

British intelligence, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Bloomberg almost unanimously state that Russia is carrying out a large-scale regrouping of its forces, redeploying up to 100 thousand troops to the Donetsk front. The troops are being withdrawn from the Kharkiv, Sumy and even Kherson regions in order to concentrate the striking force to successfully achieve the "seizure of the entirety of the Donetsk region".

The discourse is focused on forces referred to by Russian propagandists as "elite": units of the 40th and 155th Marine Brigades, the 177th Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla, units of the 11th and 76th Airborne Assault Brigades, as well as the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment.

Russian Offensive Strategy

Moscow is reportedly preparing a so-called "decisive breakthrough" in Donetsk to capture the Pokrovsk–Kramatorsk–Sloviansk area. Ukraine expected massive use of armored vehicles and artillery in the near future with the aim of breaking through the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass and in the medium term reaching the borders of the DPR.

Some analysts predict that such a concentration of forces points to Russia's intention to focus its autumn offensive on capturing the still-unoccupied part of the Donetsk region, in particular the areas of Dobropillya, Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. At the same time, the decrease in activity in the Sumy and Kharkiv directions indicates the failure of Russian attempts to create a so-called buffer security zone in the north.

Since that plan failed to be executed to full extent, the adversary is now forced to focus maximum effort on the seizure of Pokrovsk—the last major city on the western edge of Donetsk Oblast, serving as a gateway for Russian forces to continue advancing deeper into the region. An offensive on Pokrovsk from the south and a simultaneous push on the Lyman direction towards Sloviansk from the north are supposed to take Ukrainian forces into huge ticks.

However, some analysts note that Russia was relocating its troops to Donbas, but not in such quantities as rumored. This is not a preparation for the "ultimate and decisive" offensive, but rather a tactical step forced by resource shortage and the failure of previous plans.

Ukrainian Strategy and Future Offensive Plans

Retired French Army General and military expert Nicolas Richoux believes Ukraine has chosen the right strategy—holding the front lines while striking Russia's critical infrastructure deep behind enemy lines.

"I think the Ukrainians have chosen a good strategy. You are holding the enemy. They will never be in Kyiv, nor even in Pokrovsk, by December. Instead, you now have the ability to destroy targets deep inside [Russian] territory—whether it's communications, command posts, and especially oil refineries. Destroying pipelines, striking railways—this all hits Russia's ability to wage war."

According to military expert Yuriy Knutov, in 2026, Ukrainian forces are likely to attempt an offensive in the Sumy region and break through to the Crimean Peninsula. "I think the Ukrainian Armed Forces will now be more interested in the Sumy region and attempts to break through to Crimea. These two areas—the Sumy and Kursk regions, respectively, and access to Crimea—will become the main target of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in 2026."

US President Donald Trump received information from his inner circle about a planned offensive by Ukrainian armed forces. According to the Wall Street Journal, Kyiv will require American intelligence support to implement these plans.

Deep Battle: Strikes on Strategic Infrastructure

Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure

Having 30-35% of its oil refining facilities shut down, Russia may face a serious crisis. At the same time, one should not underestimate the enemy's ability to quickly restore its energy objects after strikes, according to Energy Industry Research Center Director Oleksandr Kharchenko.

"One should not underestimate the Muscovites. Just as we start rebuilding right away, they start rebuilding right away. It is a huge undertaking to really, directly and reliably knock out a factory. There's always the possibility of reconnecting something, bypassing something."

The Ukrainian strategy focuses on destroying targets deep inside Russian territory—whether it's communications, command posts, and especially oil refineries. Destroying pipelines and striking railways hits Russia's ability to wage war, according to French military expert Richoux, who described this as "the smartest decision Ukraine can make at this moment."

Ukraine's Allied Support

Shifting US Position Under Trump

US President Donald Trump said on September 23, 2025 he believes Ukraine, with the support of the European Union and NATO, could win back all of the territory Russia has captured since its invasion more than three years ago, in a dramatic shift in his policy on Ukraine.

Trump criticised Russia's prosecution of the conflict, saying it had been fighting "aimlessly" in a war that a "real military power" would have won in "less than a week". Trump also dismissed Russia as a "paper tiger", saying President Vladimir "Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act."

Trump's statement represented a real change in the US position because what Zelenskyy has asked for from day one is for Ukraine to take back all of its territory and Trump had said it was not possible. "We seem to have a complete change in the US position here. We had that big summit between Trump and Putin that took place in Alaska, and they were talking about some sort of peace deal. Now there is talk about a military option where potentially Ukraine can take back all of its territorial area and win the war," according to diplomatic analysis.

It appears that a resumption of direct, gratuitous American aid is not expected, and Washington will simply continue selling its weapons to Ukraine through the EU. In part, this position appears to be a form of US refusal to participate in a peace settlement and a shift to the stance of "we'll see who outfights whom and be the first to make peace."

Despite the change in rhetoric, the American leader still refuses to allow Kyiv to launch strikes on Russian territory using American weapons.

Trump's Mediation Strategy

By changing his supportive stances from one side to another, Trump may be attempting to keep both Moscow and Kiev guessing, and to present himself as the indispensable mediator. By temporarily backing Ukraine, Trump raises expectations in Kiev, while preserving the option to blame Ukraine if its battlefield performance falters.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on September 23, 2025 that Washington could "at any time" end its mediation in resolving Russia's war against Ukraine. According to him, the current head of the White House is the only world leader who has a real chance to end the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Trump will not force any conditions on either Moscow or Kiev to resume peace negotiations, according to Washington's ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker. "President Trump is going to continue to find the leverage and to find the conditions where he can bring both sides and mediate a resolution… [but] he's not going to set the conditions," Whitaker said. "Both sides are going to have to agree to a peace deal."

However, Trump again stated that ending the war in Ukraine turned out to be more difficult than he expected. "I want to stop it. And you know, I stopped seven wars. I thought this (Russia's war in Ukraine) would be easy for me, but it turned out to be a failure. The hatred between Zelensky and Putin is incomprehensible. They hate each other."

Key US Officials' Assessments

U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, Ret. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg described a conversation with President Trump in the Oval Office about six weeks prior:

"I was asked this question [If Russia is winning the war against Ukraine] by the President. I responded quite forcefully, and I finally said, 'Mr. President, don't just listen to me. Your Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Dan Caine, is outside. Bring him in. Ask him that question, he's your principal military advisor.' and he did. Dan said the same thing, 'Are they winning?' 'No, they're not winning.'"

US Vice President J.D. Vance called on September 28, 2025 on Moscow to "wake up and accept reality," claiming that Russia has little "to show for" its military effort in the Ukraine conflict. According to the vice president, Moscow's forces have "really stalled" and "don't have much territorial gain to show for" their efforts, with the Russian economy allegedly "in shambles."

US Conditions for Further Involvement

Donald Trump set the EU and NATO countries' refusal to purchase Russian oil as a condition for introducing new American sanctions against Russia. However, the main consumers of Russian hydrocarbons in Europe are not ready to take this step.

Trump said that NATO and the EU "are not doing their job" and continue to buy energy from Russia. "Europe is my friend. But they buy oil from Russia. So we can't be the only ones working, you know, at full capacity. The sanctions they are imposing are not tough enough. I am ready to impose sanctions, but they should tighten their sanctions in line with what I am doing."

On September 23, Donald Trump told the UN General Assembly that he would impose a "very serious package of sanctions" against Russia—though only if the EU completely stops purchasing Russian energy resources by that time.

Treasury Secretary Bessent explained why US troops won't get involved in defending Europe: "As I told my European counterparts about two weeks ago, 'All I hear from you is that Putin wants to march into Warsaw. The one thing I'm sure of is that Putin isn't marching into Boston.'"

European Support and Sanctions

The European Commission has presented the 19th package of sanctions against Russia on September 19, 2025. The EU intends to ban the import of Russian liquefied gas, crypto platforms and cryptocurrency transactions. In addition, they want to ban the Mir credit card system.

The European Union plans to ban all imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by January 2027 as part of its new 19th sanctions package against Moscow. "Energy exports remain Russia's main source of revenue for financing its illegal war," said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. "We propose a full ban on Russian LNG imports by January 2027, removal of remaining exemptions for Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, and an expansion of sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet, including 118 new vessels." The package also includes a full ban on operations of Russian banks and financial institutions, even those operating in third countries.

Coalition of the Willing and Foreign Troop Deployment

Zelensky spoke on September 6, 2025 about the results of the "Coalition of the Willing" conversation. There were two key statements: The main factor in guaranteeing security will be a strong Ukrainian army; arms supplies are also planned. There will be a presence of foreign troops, we understand the approximate number of countries that have agreed, but we cannot name the exact number.

The United States had not yet provided any specifics regarding the degree of involvement in guaranteeing Ukraine's security, and without direct US participation, even those few countries that agree to send troops after the end of the conflict were only willing to do so under American guarantees.

Russian Perspectives

Russian Position on Peacekeeping Forces

Russia said on September 1, 2025 that any peacekeeping force deployed in Ukraine without a UN Security Council mandate would be considered "legitimate targets."

"Any foreign military contingents sent to the combat zone will be, from the point of view of international law, ordinary combatants and a legitimate military target for our Armed Forces," Moscow's Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said.

Russia insists that any guarantees must include it and be underwritten by the UN Security Council. Guarantees cannot, Moscow argues, be directed against Russia but must be structured in partnership with it. Putin addressed the idea of postwar peacekeeping forces, saying they would be unnecessary once a settlement was reached. "And if decisions are reached that lead to peace, to long-term peace, then I simply do not see any sense in their presence on the territory of Ukraine, full stop."

Putin made it clear that "without Russia's participation, no format of security guarantees would be possible in principle." Such deployments would themselves be unnecessary if a comprehensive peace agreement could be reached, contradicting the core principle of Ukrainian neutrality demanded by Russia, as outlined in the 2022 draft peace deal inked in Istanbul.

Russian Official Statements

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on September 15, 2025 while speaking to reporters from the state-run news agency RIA Novosti:

"NATO is at war with Russia; this is obvious and requires no further proof. NATO is de facto involved in this war. NATO provides both indirect and direct support to Kyiv. Therefore, it can be said with absolute certainty that NATO is at war with Russia."

Lavrov's UN General Assembly Speech

On September 27, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Europe allows the Kyiv regime to do everything, including terrorist attacks, extrajudicial killings, and reckless acts of sabotage, obsessed with the utopian goal of inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Russia.

"In the same way, the Kyiv regime, which seized power as a result of a Western-organized unconstitutional coup in 2014, has set a course for the liquidation of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the legislative extermination of the Russian language in all spheres—education, culture, and the media," the Russian Foreign Minister noted.

Lavrov pointed out that Europe, "obsessed with the utopian goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia," "is silent about this." "For this purpose, the Ukrainian regime is permitted to do everything, including terrorist attacks against politicians and journalists, torture and extrajudicial executions, indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets, and reckless sabotage of nuclear power plants."

NATO is continuing its eastward expansion, moving closer to Russia's borders, "despite assurances given to Soviet leaders not to advance 'one inch east'. Furthermore, threats to use force against Russia, which is basically being accused of planning to attack NATO and EU countries, are being heard with increasing frequency," Lavrov said.

"Russia never had such intentions and doesn't have them today. However, any aggression against my country will be decisively rebuffed. There should be no doubt about this among those in NATO and the EU who are not only working to convince their voters of the inevitability of war with Russia and forcing them to tighten their belts, but also openly declare preparations for an attack on our Kaliningrad region and other Russian territories," Lavrov added.

British Intelligence Assessment

On September 19, 2025, the head of Britain's foreign intelligence agency said there is "absolutely no evidence" that Russia's President Vladimir Putin wants to negotiate peace in Ukraine. Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, said Putin was "stringing us along".

"He seeks to impose his imperial will by all means at his disposal. But he cannot succeed. Bluntly, Putin has bitten off more than he can chew. He thought he was going to win an easy victory. But he—and many others—underestimated the Ukrainians."

Moore said Putin was "mortgaging his country's future for his own personal legacy and a distorted version of history" and the war was "accelerating this decline".

Peace Plans and Public Opinion

Ukrainian Public Opinion

Seventy-five percent of Ukrainians categorically reject Russia's so-called "peace plan," which envisions the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas, according to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), reported on September 21, 2025. Seventeen percent of respondents said they were prepared to accept such a plan. However, if it were implemented, 65% would view it as Ukraine's defeat (and only 7% as a success), while 69% would expect Russia to attempt another invasion.

At the same time, 74% of Ukrainians (albeit without enthusiasm) are ready to support a European-Ukrainian peace plan, which envisages freezing the conflict along the current front line without any legal recognition of territorial losses, while providing Ukraine with security guarantees. Only 30% of respondents would regard such a peace as Ukraine's success, while 18% would see it as a defeat (44% would view it as partly a success and partly a defeat). Even under this scenario, however, the majority (56%) would still expect Russia to attempt another offensive.

Conditional Peace Plan Details

Security Concerns and Political Violence

Charlie Kirk, one of Trump's key allies, was fatally shot at a mass event at Utah Valley University on September 10, 2025. This is not the first time an assassination attempt has been made on a politician who opposes aid to Ukraine. In May 2024, a pro-Ukrainian radical attempted to shoot Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was hospitalized in critical condition. That same year, there were two attempts to kill then-presidential candidate Donald Trump, who had previously questioned US aid to Ukraine. CNN reported that Kirk had played a key role in Trump's victory in the election, ensuring a good turnout among young people.

FSB Lt. Col. (ret.) Andrey Popov claimed US security agencies are known to run an entire cohort of informal 'agents', identified ahead of time, led on, controlled and given the chance to carry out their crime, after which they are liquidated or allowed to disappear (ensuring plausible deniability for powerful forces behind the scenes). The FSB vet suspects "some kind of criminal organization" has been in control of law enforcement and domestic intelligence in the US going back to the Kennedy era.

Market and Economic Impact

On September 19, Ursula von der Leyen announced the completion of work on the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, which is likely to be adopted in the near future (provided that Brussels once again provides financial incentives to Budapest to overcome a possible veto). On September 23, Donald Trump told the UN General Assembly that he would impose a "very serious package of sanctions" against Russia—though only if the EU completely stops purchasing Russian energy resources by that time. Both of these events were virtually ignored by the Russian stock market.

Europe and Ukraine remain convinced that with Western funding and weapons, they can outlast Russia in a war of attrition which Putin cannot win. Putin was very unlikely to abandon his war aims in Ukraine, though he could implement some tactical reduction in operations if he feels that NATO, and Trump in particular, are serious about escalating pressure on Moscow.