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Russo-Ukraine War - September 2025

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A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

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Russia said on 01 Septembe 2025 that any peacekeeping force deployed in Ukraine without a UN Security Council mandate would be considered "legitimate targets." "Any foreign military contingents sent to the combat zone will be, from the point of view of international law, ordinary combatants and a legitimate military target for our Armed Forces," Moscow's Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said.

Russia insists that any guarantees must include it and be underwritten by the UN Security Council. Guarantees cannot, Moscow argues, be directed against Russia but must be structured in partnership with it – another thorny point. Putin addressed the idea of postwar peacekeeping forces, saying they would be unnecessary once a settlement was reached. “And if decisions are reached that lead to peace, to long-term peace, then I simply do not see any sense in their presence on the territory of Ukraine, full stop.”

Putin made it clear that “without Russia’s participation, no format of security guarantees would be possible in principle.”. Such deployments would themselves be unnecessary if a comprehensive peace agreement could be reached, contradicting the core principle of Ukrainian neutrality demanded by Russia, as outlined in the 2022 draft peace deal inked in Istanbul.

Putin’s remarks drew a clear boundary: foreign soldiers fighting in Ukraine during the conflict would be treated as legitimate targets, while peacekeepers after a settlement would be unnecessary. By collapsing those two scenarios into one, Western media reframed a conditional warning into a sweeping threat – turning a repeat of long-standing policy into another headline of Russian aggression.

The United States had not yet provided any specifics regarding the degree of involvement in guaranteeing Ukraine's security, and without direct US participation, even those few countries that agree to send troops after the end of the conflict were only willing to do so under American guarantees. Zelensky spoke 06 Septembe 2025 a little about the results of the "Coalition of the Willing" conversation. There were two key statements: The main factor in guaranteeing security will be a strong Ukrainian army; arms supplies are also planned. There will be a presence of foreign troops, we understand the approximate number of countries that have agreed, but we cannot name the exact number.

In general, with such rhetoric, there is no need to worry about the possibility of a quick end to the Ukrainian conflict . Simply because the absence of NATO troops in Ukraine is much more important to Moscow than control over any part of it, including even Kherson and Zaporozhye. Therefore, attempts to agree on the deployment of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory after the end of the conflict will simply mean its inevitable continuation , so that no deployment of troops will occur.

Russia fired its largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the war began on the night of 6-7 September 2024, setting the main government building in central Kyiv ablaze and damaging the structure before the fire was put out, officials said. At least four people, including an infant, were killed and dozens wounded across the country as Russia launched more than 800 drones and 13 missiles in the attacks. Russia launched 805 drones into Ukraine overnight and 13 missiles, with Ukrainian defence units downing 751 drones and four missiles, Ukraine Air Force said. That was the highest number of drones Russia has used to attack the country since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Kyiv's Mayor Vitali Klitschko said a fire broke out at the government building in the city centre after the attack, which began with drones raining down, followed by missile strikes. The drone attacks killed an infant and a young woman, Klitschko said on the Telegram messaging app, while a pregnant woman was among the five injured admitted to hospital. The roof and upper floors of Ukraine's cabinet of ministers building, the seat of the government in Kyiv, were damaged in a Russian strike early Sunday, Ukraine's prime minister said.

“For the first time, the government building was damaged by an enemy attack, including the roof and upper floors,” said Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. “We will restore the buildings, but lost lives cannot be returned.” The attack on the Ukrainian government building was a "very worrying development because this is the governmental district of Kyiv, the area that is considered probably the most strongly protected in all of Ukraine by the country's air defences", said FRANCE 24's Gulliver Cragg, reporting from Kyiv.

The Russian Armed Forces carried out the largest troop redeployment since the Battle of Kiev in 2022. Airborne and marine units from the Sumy region have arrived in the Pokrovsk direction, and now a motorized rifle division from the Kherson region has been added to the Chasov Yar area. In addition, Ukrainian observers claim that the Russian Armed Forces plan to deploy the 7th Airborne Division with four additional regiments in the Zaporizhia region, supported by motorized rifle units. The 7th Air Assault Corps reported Russia had deployed marine units near Pokrovsk and stepped up armored assaults aimed at cutting supply lines. Moscow is reportedly preparing a so-called “decisive breakthrough” in Donetsk to capture the Pokrovsk–Kramatorsk–Sloviansk area. Ukraine expected massive use of armored vehicles and artillery in the near future with the aim of breaking through the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass and in the medium term reaching the borders of the DPR.

Charlie Kirk, one of Trump's key allies, was fatally shot at a mass event at Utah Valley University 10 September 2025. This is not the first time an assassination attempt has been made on a politician who opposes aid to Ukraine. In May 2024, a pro-Ukrainian radical attempted to shoot Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was hospitalized in critical condition. That same year, there were two attempts to kill then-presidential candidate Donald Trump, who had previously questioned US aid to Ukraine. CNN reported that Kirk had played a key role in Trump's victory in the election, ensuring a good turnout among young people.

FSB Lt. Col. (ret.) Andrey Popov, claimed US security agencies are known to run an entire cohort of informal ‘agents’, identified ahead of time, led on, controlled and given the chance to carry out their crime, after which they are liquidated or allowed to disappear (ensuring plausible deniability for powerful forces behind the scenes). The FSB vet suspects “some kind of criminal organization” has been in control of law enforcement and domestic intelligence in the US going back to the Kennedy era, organizing them in such a way as to ease political murder and protect the masterminds. The ability to freely kill politicians means control, “exercised in the most radical way imaginable – by eliminating people influencing public opinion in a direction that’s not favorable to this organized criminal group,” Popov summed up.

U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, Ret. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg: “I was asked this question [If Russia is winning the war against Ukraine] by the President, President Trump, in the Oval Office, probably six weeks ago. I responded quite forcefully, and I finally said, ‘Mr. President, don’t just listen to me. Your Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Dan Caine, is outside. Bring him in. Ask him that question, he’s your principal military advisor.’ and he did. Dan said the same thing, ‘Are they winning?’ ‘No, they’re not winning.’”

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated 15 September 2025 while speaking to reporters from the state-run news agency RIA Novosti, “NATO is at war with Russia; this is obvious and requires no further proof. NATO is de facto involved in this war. NATO provides both indirect and direct support to Kyiv. Therefore, it can be said with absolute certainty that NATO is at war with Russia.”

US President Donald Trump said there is "unfathomable hatred" between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Trump again stated that ending the war in Ukraine turned out to be more difficult than he expected. "I want to stop it. And you know, I stopped seven wars. I thought this (Russia's war in Ukraine) would be easy for me, but it turned out to be a failure. The hatred between Zelensky and Putin is incomprehensible. They hate each other. I think I'll have to tell them. We'll figure it out, one way or another. They (Putin and Zelensky, — ed.) hate each other so much that they can't breathe. So I'll have to intervene," the president said.

Trump said that NATO and the EU "are not doing their job" and continue to buy energy from Russia. "Europe is my friend. But they buy oil from Russia. So we can't be the only ones working, you know, at full capacity. The sanctions they are imposing are not tough enough. I am ready to impose sanctions, but they should tighten their sanctions in line with what I am doing. I think they will do it, but right now they are only talking, not acting," the president said.

Having 30-35% of its oil refining facilities shut down, Russia may face a serious crisis. At the same time, one should not underestimate the enemy’s ability to quickly restore its energy objects after strikes. The relevant statement was made by Energy Industry Research Center Director Oleksandr Kharchenko in a commentary to Ukrinform. “One should not underestimate the Muscovites. Just as we start rebuilding right away, they start rebuilding right away. It is a huge undertaking to really, directly and reliably knock out a factory. There’s always the possibility of reconnecting something, bypassing something,” Kharchenko told.

British intelligence, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the authoritative publication Bloomberg almost unanimously state that Russia is carrying out a large-scale regrouping of its forces, redeploying up to 100 thousand troops to the Donetsk front. The troops are being withdrawn from the Kharkiv, Sumy and even Kherson regions in order to concentrate the striking force to successfully achieve the "seizure of the entirety of the Donetsk region".

The discourse is focused on the forces referred to by Russian propagandists as "elite". These are the units of the 40th and 155th Marine Brigades, the 177th Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla, units of the 11th and 76th Airborne Assault Brigades, as well as the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment. Some analysts predict that such a concentration of forces points to Russia’s intention to focus its autumn offensive on capturing the still-unoccupied part of the Donetsk region, in particular the areas of Dobropillya, Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. At the same time, the decrease in activity in the Sumy and Kharkiv directions indicates the failure of Russian attempts to create a so-called buffer security zone in the north.

The priority objectives set by the occupiers for their autumn-winter offensive campaign were quite obvious and pragmatic from a military point of view. As Oleksandr Kovalenko points out, the prime objective of Russia’s failed summer campaign was to set up a bridgehead for further advances in the cold season. Moscow was seeking to bring its human resources into urban areas to avoid protracted fighting in the open terrain during the season of rains, frosts and snowfalls, and thus preclude undue additional casualties and equipment losses. That explains why Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Lyman, Borova, Siversk and Kostyantynivka were identified as key targets.

Since that plan failed to be executed to full extent, the adversary is now forced to focus maximum effort on the seizure of Pokrovsk -- the last major city on the western edge of Donetsk Oblast, serving as a gateway for Russian forces to continue advancing deeper into the region. An offensive on Pokrovsk from the south and a simultaneous push on the Lyman direction towards Sloviansk from the north are supposed to take Ukrainian forces into huge ticks.

Russia was relocating its troops to Donbas, but not in such quantities as rumored. This is not a preparation for the “ultimate and decisive” offensive, but rather a tactical step forced by resource shortage and the failure of previous plans.

Donald Trump set the EU and NATO countries' refusal to purchase Russian oil as a condition for introducing new American sanctions against Russia. However, the main consumers of Russian hydrocarbons in Europe are not ready to take this step. In addition, it seems that Trump has already resigned himself to the idea that a personal bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky should not be expected in the near future.

Trump will not force any conditions on either Moscow or Kiev to resume peace negotiations, Washington’s ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker has stated. Appearing on Fox Business, the envoy said that the US president will, nevertheless, continue to push for a settlement in the Ukraine conflict. ”President Trump is going to continue to find the leverage and to find the conditions where he can bring both sides and mediate a resolution… [but] he’s not going to set the conditions,” Whitaker said. “Both sides are going to have to agree to a peace deal,” he added.

On 19 September 2025 the head of Britain’s foreign intelligence agency said there is “absolutely no evidence” that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin wants to negotiate peace in Ukraine. Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6 as it is more commonly known, said Putin was “stringing us along”. “He seeks to impose his imperial will by all means at his disposal. But he cannot succeed," Moore said. "Bluntly, Putin has bitten off more than he can chew. He thought he was going to win an easy victory. But he – and many others – underestimated the Ukrainians.” Moore said Putin was “mortgaging his country’s future for his own personal legacy and a distorted version of history” and the war was “accelerating this decline”.

The European Commission has presented the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. The EU intends to ban the import of Russian liquefied gas, crypto platforms and cryptocurrency transactions. In addition, they want to ban the Mir credit card system. This was announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on September 19, The European Union plans to ban all imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by January 2027 as part of its new 19th sanctions package against Moscow, Ukrinform reports. “Energy exports remain Russia’s main source of revenue for financing its illegal war,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. “We propose a full ban on Russian LNG imports by January 2027, removal of remaining exemptions for Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, and an expansion of sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, including 118 new vessels.” The package also includes a full ban on operations of Russian banks and financial institutions, even those operating in third countries.

Seventy-five percent of Ukrainians categorically reject Russia’s so-called “peace plan,” which envisions the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas. That is according to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), Ukrinform reported 21 September 2025. The latest version of Russia’s “peace plan” is categorically rejected by 75% of Ukrainians. Seventeen percent of respondents said they were prepared to accept such a plan. However, if it were implemented, 65% would view it as Ukraine’s defeat (and only 7% as a success), while 69% would expect Russia to attempt another invasion.

At the same time, 74% of Ukrainians (albeit without enthusiasm) are ready to support a European-Ukrainian peace plan, which envisages freezing the conflict along the current front line without any legal recognition of territorial losses, while providing Ukraine with security guarantees. Only 30% of respondents would regard such a peace as Ukraine’s success, while 18% would see it as a defeat (44% would view it as partly a success and partly a defeat). Even under this scenario, however, the majority (56%) would still expect Russia to attempt another offensive.

KIIS noted that under the conditional European-Ukrainian plan, Ukraine would receive reliable security guarantees from Europe and the United States, including sustained deliveries of weapons and financial aid in sufficient quantities, as well as protection of its airspace from Russian attacks. The current front line would be frozen, Russia would retain control over the occupied territories, but neither Ukraine nor the international community would recognize this officially. Ukraine would move forward on its path to EU membership. Sanctions against Russia would remain in place until a lasting peace is established and the threat of renewed aggression disappears.

The conditional Russian plan, by contrast, envisions the U.S. and Europe lifting all sanctions against Russia. The Russian language would gain official status. Ukraine would be required to significantly reduce its army and limit its weapons. Ukraine would permanently renounce NATO membership, and the West would no longer be allowed to supply Ukraine with weapons. Russia would have the right to determine what security guarantees Ukraine could receive and would itself be one of Ukraine’s security guarantors. Ukraine would withdraw its forces from parts of the Donetsk region currently under its control, including Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and other cities. Ukraine would officially recognize Crimea, the Donetsk, and Luhansk regions as parts of Russia and renounce them forever. Russia would also retain control of the occupied areas of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Retired French Army General and military expert Nicolas Richoux believes Ukraine has chosen the right strategy — holding the front lines while striking Russia’s critical infrastructure deep behind enemy lines. Richoux said this in an interview with Ukrinform. “I think the Ukrainians have chosen a good strategy. You are holding the enemy. They will never be in Kyiv, nor even in Pokrovsk, by December. Instead, you now have the ability to destroy targets deep inside [Russian] territory — whether it’s communications, command posts, and especially oil refineries. Destroying pipelines, striking railways — this all hits Russia’s ability to wage war.” He added that this is “the smartest decision Ukraine can make at this moment.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said 23 September 2025 that Washington could "at any time" end its mediation in resolving Russia's war against Ukraine. He said this on Fox News. According to him, the current head of the White House is the only world leader who has a real chance to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. "In the case of Russia and Ukraine, the only leader in the world who has any chance of ending this is President Trump, which is why he has put more time and effort into it than anyone else. Every other country, including Turkey, by the way, is asking us to intervene," the diplomat said. In addition, Rubio noted that Trump expressed "deep disappointment in the direction the situation continues to go."

United States President Donald Trump said 23 September 2025 he believes Ukraine, with the support of the European Union and NATO, could win back all of the territory Russia has captured since its invasion more than three years ago, in a dramatic shift in his policy on Ukraine. “With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform after his meeting on Tuesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump criticised Russia’s prosecution of the conflict, saying it had been fighting “aimlessly” in a war that a “real military power” would have won in “less than a week”. Trump also dismissed Russia as a “paper tiger”, saying President Vladimir “Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”

"After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form. With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option.

Why not? Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win. This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like "a paper tiger." When the people living in Moscow, and all of the Great Cities, Towns, and Districts all throughout Russia, find out what is really going on with this War, the fact that it's almost impossible for them to get Gasoline through the long lines that are being formed, and all of the other things that are taking place in their War Economy, where most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine, which has Great Spirit, and only getting better, Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that! Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act. In any event, I wish both Countries well. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them. Good luck to all!"

Trump's statement represented a real change in the US position because what Zelenskyy has asked for from day one is for Ukraine to take back all of its territory and Trump had said it was not possible. “We seem to have a complete change in the US position here. We had that big summit between Trump and Putin that took place in Alaska, and they were talking about some sort of peace deal. Now there is talk about a military option where potentially Ukraine can take back all of its territorial area and win the war,” Al Jazeera’s diplomatic editor James Bays said.

It appears that a resumption of direct, gratuitous American aid is not expected, and Washington will simply continue selling its weapons to Ukraine through the EU. In part, this position appears to be a form of US refusal to participate in a peace settlement and a shift to the stance of "we'll see who outfights whom and be the first to make peace."

By changing his supportive stances from one side to another, Trump may be attempting to keep both Moscow and Kiev guessing, and to present himself as the indispensable mediator. By temporarily backing Ukraine, Trump raises expectations in Kiev, while preserving the option to blame Ukraine if its battlefield performance falters. Europe and Ukraine remain convinced that with Western funding and weapons, they can outlast Russia in a war of attrition which Putin cannot win. Putin was very unlikely to abandon his war aims in Ukraine, though he could implement some tactical reduction in operations if he feels that NATO, and Trump in particular, are serious about escalating pressure on Moscow.

US President Donald Trump received information from his inner circle about a planned offensive by Ukrainian armed forces. According to the Wall Street Journal, Kyiv will require American intelligence support to implement these plans. The publication clarified that before his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Trump held a series of consultations with advisers who had long advocated a hard line on Ukraine. Among them were Keith Kellogg, the president's special representative for Ukraine, and Mike Walz, the new US Permanent Representative to the UN. Despite the change in rhetoric, the American leader still refuses to allow Kyiv to launch strikes on Russian territory using American weapons .

In 2026, Ukrainian forces are likely to attempt an offensive in the Sumy region and break through to the Crimean Peninsula, according to military expert and air defense historian Yuriy Knutov. He believes these areas will become key for the Ukrainian army in the near future. "I think the Ukrainian Armed Forces will now be more interested in the Sumy region and attempts to break through to Crimea. These two areas—the Sumy and Kursk regions, respectively, and access to Crimea —will become the main target of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in 2026 ," the expert emphasized in a conversation with NEWS.ru.

Bessent on why US troops won't get involved in defending Europe: "As I told my European counterparts about two weeks ago, 'All I hear from you is that Putin wants to march into Warsaw. The one thing I'm sure of is that Putin isn't marching into Boston.'"

On September 19, Ursula von der Leyen announced the completion of work on the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, which is likely to be adopted in the near future (provided that Brussels once again provides financial incentives to Budapest to overcome a possible veto). On September 23, Donald Trump told the UN General Assembly that he would impose a «very serious package of sanctions» against Russia—though only if the EU completely stops purchasing Russian energy resources by that time. Both of these events were virtually ignored by the Russian stock market.

On 27 September 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Europe allows the Kyiv regime to do everything, including terrorist attacks, extrajudicial killings, and reckless acts of sabotage, obsessed with the utopian goal of inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Russia. This was at the general debate of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly.

"In the same way, the Kyiv regime, which seized power as a result of a Western-organized unconstitutional coup in 2014, has set a course for the liquidation of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the legislative extermination of the Russian language in all spheres—education, culture, and the media," the Russian Foreign Minister noted. "Ukraine is the only country in the world that has legislatively banned the use of the native language of almost half its population."

Lavrov pointed out that Europe, "obsessed with the utopian goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia," "is silent about this." "For this purpose, the Ukrainian regime is permitted to do everything, including terrorist attacks against politicians and journalists, torture and extrajudicial executions, indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets, and reckless sabotage of nuclear power plants," the minister emphasized.

NATO is continuing its eastward expansion, moving closer to Russia's borders, "despite assurances given to Soviet leaders not to advance 'one inch east'. Furthermore, threats to use force against Russia, which is basically being accused of planning to attack NATO and EU countries, are being heard with increasing frequency," Lavrov said.

"Russia never had such intentions and doesn't have them today. However, any aggression against my country will be decisively rebuffed. There should be no doubt about this among those in NATO and the EU who are not only working to convince their voters of the inevitability of war with Russia and forcing them to tighten their belts, but also openly declare preparations for an attack on our Kaliningrad region and other Russian territories," Lavrov added.

US Vice President J.D. Vance called 28 September 2025 on Moscow to “'wake up and accept reality,” claiming that Russia has little “to show for” its military effort in the Ukraine conflict. His words echoed those of President Donald Trump, who has recently also changed his rhetoric on the issue by stating that Kiev could defeat Moscow. For months, Washington insisted that Kiev would need to give up on certain territorial claims for a US-mediated peace deal with Moscow to move forward. However, the US President made a U-turn by dismissing Russia as a “paper tiger” and urging Kiev to “act.” Vance called on Moscow to sit down at the negotiating table in an interview with Fox News on Sunday. The US would “keep on working for peace, and we hope the Russians actually wake up to the reality on the ground,” he stated while largely repeating Trump’s recent arguments. According to the vice president, Moscow’s forces have “really stalled” and “don’t have much territorial gain to show for” their efforts, with the Russian economy allegedly “in shambles.”