Russo-Ukraine War - 2025
According to NATO, the war had claimed the lives of about one million soldiers, including 400,000 Ukrainians, by the end of 2024.
A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.
On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.
"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]
Moscow, which describes the Ukraine conflict as a US-led proxy war against Russia, has pledged to achieve its goals by any means necessary as its national security depends on it. The West is willing “to fight to the last Ukrainian” to inflict damage on Russia, the Kremlin has argued.
Most likely, 2025 will be marked by the failure of negotiations with the participation of Trump, and the continuation of military operations, where Russia will continue to try to improve its position "on the ground" as much as possible, and Ukraine will try with all its might to slow down the Russian advance and make attempts to switch attention to other areas of the front. Military cooperation with Iran and North Korea will continue and deepen, it is very likely that the supply of military equipment from the DPRK will only expand.
Putin, for his part, previously put forward initiatives for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, which, in particular, stipulate that Moscow will immediately cease fire and declare its readiness for negotiations after the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory of Russia's new regions. Kiev should also declare that it is abandoning its intention to join NATO and should carry out demilitarization and de-Nazification, as well as accept a neutral, non-aligned and non-nuclear status. Plus, the West’s anti-Russian sanctions must be lifted, Putin underscored.
Russia and Ukraine may clinch a peace deal in 2025, which could envisage Moscow retaining territories it earlier liberated, the Financial Times reported 01 Janaury 2025. “[Under the possible deal] Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy will agree to de facto but not de jure Russian control of the land it currently occupies, with some land swaps, in return for European security guarantees with US support, while Ukraine’s NATO accession is ultimately put on ice. [Russian President] Vladimir Putin will calculate that European resolve will eventually falter,” according to the newspaper.
This was echoed by Germany's Die Welt weekly, which insisted that territorial concessions to Russia are the only option for the Kiev regime in terms of peace negotiations. “Ukraine is significantly weakened militarily: troop morale is falling and the number of deserters is rising. […] Volodymyr Zelensky would be forced to give up Ukrainian territory for a ceasefire [talks]”, Die Welt pointed out.
As 2025 began, Russia's war on Ukraine approached its fourth year, and while officials and observers see a horizon for the end of the war, others expect a major escalation in which the past years will be "just nothing." Expectations are based on the fact that 2024 was in Moscow's favor on the ground, as it advanced at a remarkable pace, controlling about 2,800 square kilometers, especially in the Donetsk province in southeastern Ukraine. Kyiv failed to liberate any of its territory or even launch counter-operations similar to those in 2022 and 2023, despite having intensified the use of attack drones, obtained F-16 aircraft , and received a green light to strike deep inside Russia with long-range Western missiles.
Under Russian pressure and the demands of the "Western allies," Ukraine had been sending messages from time to time agreeing to stop the war through negotiations, and its readiness to make concessions on the ground in exchange for security guarantees. A reality that places the war in Ukraine before 5 main scenarios in the year 2025, some of which relate to the form and date of the end of the war, and some of which are considered “just a new year” in it:
- Scenario 1: Control over the entire Donbas: It includes Russia's continued advance, reaching the point of seizing the entire Donbas region in southeastern Ukraine (with its Donetsk and Luhansk provinces), as well as seeking to annex new territories in the Zaporizhia and Kherson provinces , before the spring of next year. According to the Deep State website for military operations maps, Moscow currently controls about 60% of the area of Donetsk, and about 98% of the area of Luhansk. In this context, Ulyana Bezbalko, a writer on military affairs, told Al Jazeera Net: “Donbas is Russia’s main target, but it is currently mobilising for extensive offensive operations in the south, and winter is the best period for it to achieve this goal. We will not see anything new before spring, and the military force will have the final say.” In her opinion, Ukraine is unable to stop the Russian advance or take the initiative on the fronts, and the authorities have retreated from the goal of liberating all the territories, "and Western leaders do not believe in this possibility and want to push Kiev towards some kind of peace."
- Scenario 2: Waiting for explosive negotiations: The scenario is about sitting at the negotiating table, as all parties now see the end of the war in this way, with different views on the date and goals. “The war is perhaps closer than ever to its climax, and then it will come to an end,” Bezbalko comments. “What matters in this end is its form. Ukraine does not want to freeze the conflict, but to stop it with promises and security guarantees, with Russia withdrawing from territories it did not control before 2014. Moscow wants other guarantees related to its security and its general status in NATO or its membership.” To this end, Bezbalko believes that the United States has the "carrot and stick" means to push and pressure both Moscow and Kiev, but its failure means the continuation of the war at greater costs to both sides, while Russia continues to have the advantage of progress. According to Ukrainian officials, Moscow currently controls about 18% of Ukraine's 603,600 square kilometers.
- Scenario 3: Russia will not negotiate: Other officials believe that this scenario - which Russia is preparing - is far from serious negotiation, as indicated by what it is doing and mobilizing for on the ground, even if it hints otherwise. “I don’t believe the Russians, whatever they say,” said Oleg Zhdanov, a military expert and reserve colonel. “Moscow has recruited 430,000 in 2024, and the plan for 2025 calls for another 450,000. It is also mobilizing for new large-scale offensive operations in the south of the country. This means it is preparing for more, not anything else.” According to him, US President-elect Donald Trump cannot force the Kremlin to negotiate, but Washington may significantly increase the volume of its aid to turn Ukraine from defense to offense, but not before the middle of the year.
- Scenario Four: End of the War After a Year: Based on this opinion, expert Oleg Zhdanov draws this scenario, expecting that the end of the war will indeed be negotiated, but not before a whole year. "I think the negotiation efforts will be formal during the year if they happen. We are facing the possibility of a major escalation that will continue until the balance of power in the negotiations tips in Ukraine's favor. I do not think that is possible before the end of 2025 or even the beginning of 2026," he says.
- Scenario Five: Ceasefire and Freezing the Conflict: This scenario does not end the war, but rather freezes it temporarily until the parties agree with the mediators on some peace agreement and parameters. Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Center for Applied Political Studies (Penta), said, “This scenario is supported by the fact that Trump’s team insists on a temporary ceasefire if negotiations begin between Russia and Ukraine. Freezing the war is more possible, and will be faster than stopping it.” He believes that Russia has not achieved its goals, but it may actually be interested in freezing the war, not stopping it, and that it is suffering from internal problems that are pushing it to do so. He says that "Russian society (like Ukrainian society) is tired of the war, and even the small military achievements that have been made have cost Moscow huge losses in people, resources and the economy."
It is noteworthy that in February 2022, Russia began a large-scale war on 9 Ukrainian provinces bordering its territory, including Kiev in the north, before withdrawing completely or partially from 5 provinces, and announcing in September of the same year a constitutional amendment by which it included Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson in the east and south.
Informed sources revealed that the Russian General Staff received instructions to end operations in the Kursk region by January 20, coinciding with the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. According to the Insider T channel's Telegram account, Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov spoke with President Putin about the situation in the Kursk region, and told him that liberating the region may take longer than expected, as Ukrainian forces continue to transfer more reserve forces despite their heavy losses. According to the channel, the capture of the Kursk salient would be an announcement of the failure of the Ukrainian military operation in the border area between the two countries. Russia's position is pushing for recognition of the so-called "comprehensive annexation" of the areas it occupied, and forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the regions that Russia annexed in the constitutional amendments, namely Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.
The Ukrainian military launched a new offensive in the Kursk region of Russia 05 January 2025 as Moscow’s forces continue to push deep inside eastern Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed in a statement on Sunday that Ukrainian forces launched new attacks amid their incursion into Russia that began with a surprise assault in August.
In Russia’s Kursk region, the Russian troops were unexpectedly attacked from several directions. This was reported by Andrii Kovalenko, Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) under the National Security and Defense Council, on Telegram, as per Ukrinform. “There is significant concern among the Russians in Kursk region because they were attacked from several directions, and this came as a surprise to them. The Defense Forces are actively operating,” Kovalenko noted.
Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are advancing from the direction of Sudzha towards the village of Bolshoe Soldatske. According to “bloggers,” the offensive involves armored vehicles. In addition to so-called “war correspondents,” some occupation “officials” have also reported on the offensive. Head of the President`s Office of Ukraine commented this events: "Kursk, good news, Russia is getting what it deserves."
An analysis released 09 January 2025 by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) found that a Russian victory in its war against Ukraine could force the United States to spend an additional $808 billion on defense over five years – more than seven times the current military aid provided to Kyiv. The comprehensive report “Dollars and Sense: America’s Interest in a Ukrainian Victory” presents a stark financial and strategic assessment of what America would face if Russia defeats Ukraine. Their analysis suggests that from 2025 to 2029, the US would need to dramatically expand its military capabilities to counter an emboldened Russia positioned directly on NATO’s eastern flank. The US would need to add 266,000 military personnel, focusing heavily on ground forces to man 14 new brigade combat teams. The Navy would require 18 more battleforce ships, while the Air Force would need 555 additional aircraft. Space assets and cyber capabilities would also require substantial expansion.
The AEI report’s findings strongly align with a similar analysis published by two prominent Dutch think tanks—the Clingendael Institute of International Relations and The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies—in July 2024. Their policy paper, “Freedom isn’t Free | A cost-benefit analysis of support for Ukraine,” examined three potential scenarios: Ukrainian victory, protracted conflict, and Russian victory. The Dutch analysis mirrors the AEI report’s key finding: while supporting Ukraine now requires significant investment, letting Russia win would cost far more. According to the Dutch think tanks, European NATO allies might need to double their defense spending if Russia wins and the US scales back its European presence. This aligns with AEI’s projection that the US would face an $808 billion defense burden.
Ukraine said it was forced to shut down its power grid in several regions 15 January 2025 despite freezing winter weather after a massive missile attack launched by Russia. Russia launched dozens of missiles and drones at the Ukrainian energy sector, Kyiv said Wednesday, ramping up a months-long bombing campaign at a precarious moment of the war for Ukraine. The Ukrainian air force said Russia had deployed 43 cruise and ballistic missiles and 74 attack drones in the overnight barrage that appeared to have targeted sites mainly in western Ukraine.
The barrage came just one day after Kyiv said it had carried out its largest aerial attack of the war on Russian army factories and energy hubs hundreds of kilometres from the front line. Th on 15 January, according to Russian channels, Ukrainian drones launched a massive attack on Russia's Tambov region, reportedly targeting a gunpowder plant near Kuzmino-Gat. Locals reported spotting multiple aircraft-type UAVs and hearing air defense systems in action. The Tambov gunpowder plant is one of the largest industrial facilities in Russia that manufactures ammunition for the army.
On 15 January 2025 at Trump’s behest, Speaker Mike Johnson removed Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio) as chair of the House Intelligence Committee. One reason for the purge of Turner is surely Ukraine. Turner has been a powerful champion for the cause of Ukraine in the House, including during last year’s fight over Ukraine aid. He said then that Kremlin propaganda had affected the Republican party, and that “anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia messages” were being uttered even “on the House floor.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's statements at his first speech in the European Parliament confirmed that the new head of the Alliance is an even more aggressive lobbyist for the militarization of Europe and increased military aid to Ukraine than even the previous Jens Stoltenberg.
The Telegraph reported that Western leaders were thinking about protecting the territory remaining under Kiev's control from future Russian attacks. Judging by the text, Emmanuel Macron was the one who is pushing this idea the hardest , while the UK authorities were hesitant about its implementation, noting that this would require deploying thousands of British soldiers, something the army does not have the capacity to do. The Telegraph also writes that there is a discussion about establishing a no-fly zone over the remaining Ukrainian territory and how it could be organized.
European peacekeeping forces would be stationed along the frozen contact line. NATO units would be deployed in Kiev to free the Ukrainian Armed Forces from guarding the capital and direct them to contain possible breakthroughs of the front line. In western Ukraine, the process of training the Ukrainian army is beginning with the involvement of NATO troops under the protection of air defense systems located in Poland. Western leaders were planning to deploy NATO troops and infrastructure on Ukrainian territory to send Ukrainian Armed Forces units from the rear to the front.
Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky reportedly urged European nations to deploy at least 200,000 troops in his country to enforce a potential ceasefire agreement with Russia. Speaking to the media on 21 January 2025, he said a lower number of foreign “peacekeepers” would amount to “nothing,” according to Reuters. The remark came after Zelensky’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Several media outlets claimed the UK and France were considering sending troops to Ukraine, in the event that the hostilities are suspended. “From all the Europeans? 200,000, it’s a minimum. It’s a minimum, otherwise it’s nothing,” Zelensky said of the proposal. ”Unless we have strong security guarantees, be it NATO [membership], or a military contingent and long-range weapons deployed on the Ukrainian territory, Putin will certainly return with an army ten times larger that the force he had in early 2022,” he claimed.
Ukraine's 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade, commenting on the situation near Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast, emphasised that despite having sufficient artillery and drones, the units faced a critical shortage of personnel in the infantry divisions: "Compared to Avdiivka, the reasons for losing territory are different. In Avdiivka, there was a shortage of artillery rounds, and FPV drones were just starting to develop, but infantry was still present. Back then, the absence of artillery was made up for by the troops. Now, however, there is enough artillery and drones, but there are not enough soldiers to fight. There is a complete shortage of personnel in the infantry units."
The soldiers said that a typical Russian assault operation involves several groups of 4-6 individuals attacking Ukrainian positions from different directions. The most intense activity occurs at dawn, when reduced visibility due to fog or rain makes aerial reconnaissance more challenging. The Russians frequently move through wooded areas, using the vegetation to shield themselves from FPV drones: "Hitting a moving target with artillery is extremely difficult, and in such cases, cluster munitions are somewhat effective. Targeting FPV drones in a grove is challenging due to the radio horizon and the branches that obstruct accurate hits. Moreover, enemy groups now often include soldiers with automatic shotguns, and they are able to shoot down our drones."
Strelkov-Girkin wrote "Reflections on What Would Be Better Not to Happen" (for the Year 2025) "The situation for the Russian Federation is characterized as negative: by the end of the third year of the war, none of the objectives previously declared as "goals of the special military operation (SMO)" have been achieved or are close to being achieved:
" 1. The "Zelensky regime" has not been overthrown and is holding stronger than in 2022. "Under the war," the accelerated "de-Russification" of Ukraine has continued, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate has been reformed, Nazi propaganda has "brainwashed" the population, and hatred for Russia has not only failed to diminish but has grown many times over.
" 2. No "demilitarization of Ukraine" has been achieved. On the contrary, there is now a massive grouping (several hundred thousand strong) in front of our lines, armed possibly better than before the start of the SMO, well- organized, experienced, resilient, and (despite war fatigue) showing no signs of imminent collapse. Part of this grouping is conducting combat operations on the territory of Russia's "old regions"-in the Kursk region, from which our forces have been unable to oust the enemy for over four months. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are intensifying missile and drone attacks on the deep rear of our troops, reaching as far as the Volga and beyond, hitting industrial and infrastructure facilities on a scale that grows month by month.
" 3. The territories of the "new regions" (except for the Luhansk People's Republic) have not been liberated from the enemy. The adversary continues to firmly hold the capital and the right-bank part of the Kherson region, the capital and a significant part of the Zaporizhzhia region, and substantial territories of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). Our successes in the Kharkiv region are minimal and remain purely tactical. There is no chance that all "constitutional" territories of the Russian Federation can be liberated militarily in the near future.
" To sum up, the SMO-in the form in which it began-has failed (it has not achieved its stated objectives). "
Donald J. Trump @realDonald Trump wrote 22 January 2025 "I'm not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin and this despite the Radical Left's Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process. All of that being said, I'm going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a "deal," and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let's get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way and the easy way is always better. It's time to "MAKE A DEAL." NO MORE LIVES SHOULD BE LOST!!!'" 2.72k ReTruths 12.7k Likes
Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and deputy director for world economy and international politics at the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics, said that “the support for Ukraine has stopped being a priority for the US.” He said “Trump’s interest is not to back Ukraine as an anti-Russian proxy, but to end the conflict as soon as possible, in order to free up resources for the fight against China”. Suslov noted that it is still “unlikely that the US would allow Kiev to suffer a devastating defeat or would agree to Kiev’s capitulation” because “everyone would immediately use it against Trump, painting him as weak.”
Russia currently has no potential for a large-scale breakthrough at the front, according to NATO Commander Europe Cavoli. "I am not worried that Ukraine could suddenly lose. I don't see the potential for a massive breakthrough. This is not a political, but a military vision. It relates to the situation on both sides - the effective defense by the Ukrainians, and the difficulty for the Russian side to create a significant offensive force for a potential breakthrough," Cavoli noted.
Fighters from the 40th Marines, 5th and 37th brigades, with the support of special forces, artillery and aviation of the "East" group of forces, liberated the regional center of Velyka Novosilka - the largest defense and logistics hub of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction.
The Russian tactics are not dynamic, but are causing Ukraine no end of bother. Put simply, Russia had the infantry and Ukraine does not. Issues with mobilisation and desertion hit Ukraine's reserves hard. "We struggle to replace our battlefield losses," says Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko, the commander of a Ukrainian tactical grouping in the Donbas. "They might throw a battalion's worth of soldiers at a position we've manned with four or five soldiers." The brigades that make up the Donbas frontline are consistently understaffed, under pressure, and cracking. The front line keeps creeping back. "We no longer have tactics beyond plugging holes," says "Kupol," the nom de guerre of a now-retired commander, who up until September led a brigade fighting in eastern Donbas. "We throw battalions into the chaotic mess and hope we can somehow stop the grind."
Igor Strelkov-Girkin posted on his TG channel 28 January 2025: “I consider the most important news to be China’s readiness to comply with US sanctions against our tanker fleet (blocking 5 tankers with Russian oil in Chinese territorial waters). It has been clear to me for a long time that China is far from supporting Russia in the current SMO and (at best) was ready to “benevolently tolerate” all the inconveniences associated with it for some time. It has also been clear for a long time that “China’s patience” in connection with the said inconveniences is either running out or has expired completely: the SMO has lasted for almost three years, and Russia’s victory (and the end of the military conflict on terms that suit Moscow) is not even on the horizon. "Accordingly, Beijing is demonstrating its irritation and “transparently hinting” to Moscow that “it’s time to end it on any terms or otherwise…” It is not clear to me how to “get out” of this wonderful situation (having only North Korea as an ally). Especially considering that society is not mobilized "at all", already very tired of the war, and does not feel any enthusiasm for its further continuation. However, Moscow is not succeeding in leaving the SMO "on any terms" (as they already tried to do in 2022 during the so-called "Istanbul agreements"). "I think I wrote somewhere before that the situation is almost like the joke about the hunter who climbed into a bear's den: - "Hey pal! I caught a bear!" - "Then drag him here!" - "I can't. It's holding me!" "Kyiv will not go for "Russian terms" (i.e. separating not only Crimea and Donbas from "Ukraine" but also Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) under any circumstances (while its front is generally strong). It is even doubtful that it will "agree to lose" Donbas and Crimea. But I cannot imagine how, even if Zelensky (suddenly) agrees to “bargain”, it is possible to “sell” to Russians the return to the so-called “Ukraine” of the already constitutionally annexed by the RF Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. "No, of course, with certain propaganda efforts, the majority (under the slogan “as long as there is no war”) will “swallow” this too, but two problems remain: 1) How will the army react to this? 2) (This is most important) Who will guarantee that having occupied the south of the aforementioned regions, the “Kyiv’s partners” will not immediately “spit” on these very guarantees? "Personally, I believe that this is what will happen, as they say, “everywhere from now on”. The most difficult thing for “Moscow’s terms” is ensuring that the population doesn't understand (in the above scenario) that: a) we lost the war; b) the war, although lost, is not over “not at all”. "But, in all likelihood, this will happen, if people do not radically change their own (I emphasize) attitude towards this very SMO and the confrontation with NATO / USA / the West in general. In general, sitting in a Penal Colony, it would be difficult for me to give any recommendations on how to "return into China’s good graces". To develop such recommendations, I need a deep and comprehensive immersion in the history and practice of interstate relations for about 15 years (and this is the "very minimum"). "Unfortunately, no one will give me such an opportunity in the near future. Without further at least "friendly neutrality" of China, the continuation of large-scale military actions seems very problematic to me. Well, unless we undertake (suddenly - with a delay of 3 years) sharp, fast, and (most importantly) successful "super-efforts". Which the Kremlin categorically did not want to undertake for the past 10 years.” Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) denied on 27 January 2025 media reports that its head, Kyrylo Budanov, predicted serious consequences for the existence of Ukraine unless negotiations begin by the summer during a confidential parliamentary meeting. Although HUR’s statement did not specify the alleged quote, an assessment attributed to Budanov began circulating in the Ukrainian media earlier on Jan. 27. "If there are no serious negotiations by the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may begin," an undisclosed source told Ukrainska Pravda, referring to an alleged statement by Budanov during a closed-door parliamentary meeting. "The Ukrainian military intelligence would like to draw the attention… to the fact that the alleged quote of (Budanov)... from a closed, classified session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine… is not true," HUR’s statement read.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
