Civilian Casualties and Humanitarian Impact

The vast majority of civilian casualties (89 percent) and damage to educational and health facilities (93 percent) occurred in territory controlled by Ukraine. Short-range drones, including First-Person-View (FPV) drones, caused the highest number of casualties in January, exceeding the impact of any other weapon. In government-controlled parts of Kherson region, this weapon accounted for 70 percent of the casualties.

Several attacks in Zaporizhzhia City on January 8, 18, and 23 caused a high number of civilian casualties (17 killed; 176 injured), contributing to the overall January increase. The majority of casualties (81 percent) occurred near the frontline, primarily in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

On January 1, a drone attack in Kyiv killed two people and injured at least six others, and also damaged the main building of the National Bank of Ukraine. Russian forces carried out missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure throughout the month.

A Russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih on January 14 killed 19 people. A subsequent drone attack on the city later that day killed one additional person. Russian forces dropped seven glide bombs on Kupiansk, killing two civilians and damaging over 60 residences.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russia had launched 300 attack drones and 20 missiles at Ukrainian targets in the first three days of 2025 alone. Russian drones hit critical infrastructure in Uman in Cherkasy region, disrupting power, water, and heating supply in surrounding settlements.

At the Front

In January 2025, Russian forces continued their advance across multiple sectors of the front, with the most significant gains occurring in the Donetsk region. Russian forces captured the town of Kurakhove on January 10, following which they continued their advance toward the key fortress city of Pokrovsk in western Donetsk.

Russian forces established full control over Kurakhove on January 10 and subsequently advanced to positions as close as three kilometers from Pokrovsk's urban core. Rather than launching a full-frontal assault on Pokrovsk, Russian forces flanked the city from the west and southeast, capturing over a dozen settlements. The presence of Russian troops and artillery gradually led to the destruction of most public infrastructure and businesses in the area, hampered civilian evacuation, and resulted in the closure of a large coking coal mine outside the city on January 14.

In southwest Donetsk, Russian forces occupied Velyka Novosilka and a neighboring settlement, in addition to two villages southwest of Pokrovsk, advancing closer to the administrative boundary with the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces also advanced in the direction of Kupiansk, taking control of settlements in the Kharkiv region and in the Luhansk region. Russian forces seized Lozova and Nadiia along the administrative border between the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions.

The Russian defense ministry claimed that Russian forces took the village of Uspenivka in the Pokrovsk sector of Donetsk Oblast. Geo-located footage confirmed Russia's control over the village of Vozdvyzhenka in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces also advanced within the city of Toretsk, with territorial gains occurring in the Donetsk region south of Pokrovsk.

In the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukrainian forces had maintained control since their August 2024 incursion, Russian forces made a breakthrough south of Sudzha threatening to encircle Ukrainian units in the area. Russian forces were advancing in the villages of Zhuravka and Novenke and also recaptured the town of Staraya Sorochina. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed that Russia had lost some 38,000 soldiers in Kursk, while 700 others were captured and over 1,000 pieces of equipment destroyed.

North Korean Troop Involvement

On January 11, 2025, Ukraine announced the capture of two wounded North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, marking the first time that Kyiv successfully detained North Korean troops alive since their entry into the war. The South Korean National Intelligence Service confirmed the North Korean origin of the two prisoners.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a short video showing the interrogation of the two captured soldiers. One was lying on a bed with bandaged hands, the other was sitting with a bandage on his jaw. According to the Security Service of Ukraine, the prisoners do not speak Ukrainian, English or Russian, so communication took place through Korean interpreters. At the time of capture, one of the soldiers had a Russian military ID card issued in the name of another person registered in the Republic of Tuva.

According to South Korea's National Intelligence Service, one of the captured soldiers revealed during questioning that he had arrived in Russia in November 2024 and undertook a week of military training from Russian forces before deployment to the battlefield. The soldier believed he was being sent for training and learned about the deployment only upon arrival in Russia. The soldier claimed there were significant troop losses during combat.

Zelenskyy offered to exchange the captured North Korean soldiers with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in return for Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia. "We are ready to hand them over to Kim Jong Un if he can organize their exchange for our warriors who are being held captive in Russia," Zelenskyy stated. He added that there would "undoubtedly be more" North Korean soldiers captured, saying "It's only a matter of time before our troops manage to capture others."

Ukrainian and Western assessments indicated that approximately 11,000 troops from North Korea had been deployed to the Kursk region to support Russian forces. Neither Russia nor North Korea publicly confirmed the troop deployment during January. The White House confirmed that North Korean forces were battling on the front lines in largely infantry positions, fighting both with Russian units and, in some cases, independently around Kursk.

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated that some North Korean soldiers had taken their own lives rather than surrender to Ukrainian forces, "likely out of fear of reprisal against their families in North Korea in the event that they're captured."

Ukraine's Allied Support

On January 9, 2025, the last Ramstein format meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group took place before Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. The meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany brought together defense ministers and senior military officials from over 50 countries, including all 32 NATO members, to discuss continued support for Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the meeting and emphasized the critical need for air defense systems. "The key task for Ukraine is strengthening our air defenses, to at least enable Ukraine to keep the Russian air force away from our cities and borders," Zelenskyy stated in his daily video address.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who chaired his 25th and final Ramstein meeting, addressed concerns about the future of the format under the incoming Trump administration. When asked whether he feared Trump might halt the Ukraine Defense Contact Group's work, Austin responded: "That is a decision that's up for the next Administration to make. And I won't speculate on which direction they would go in. But what I will tell you is that this is important not only to Ukraine but to the United States of America, to Europe, and to the entire world."

At the meeting, coalitions presented their roadmaps for developing Ukraine's armed forces through 2027, focusing on Ukraine's air force, armor, artillery, de-mining, drone, integrated air and missile defense, information technology and maritime security needs. The Pentagon emphasized that these roadmaps were "intended to enable donors to plan for and support Ukraine sustainably into the future."

The Czech-led artillery initiative delivered 1.6 million rounds of large-caliber ammunition. Czech President Petr Pavel stated that Ukraine has "sufficient resources to cover Ukraine's need" until April 2025, with the Czech initiative having enough funding to supply Ukraine with artillery until September 2025.

Mirage 2000 fighter jets sent by France to Ukraine were used in combat against Russian air attacks for the first time in January 2025. Ukrainian media reported that Ukraine would receive its first French Mirage 2000-5F multirole fighters during the month.

A significant development occurred when Maxar Technologies stopped supplying the Ukrainian government with satellite images after a request from the US Executive Office, raising concerns about intelligence support under the incoming administration.

The Trump Administration and Policy Shifts

Donald Trump was inaugurated as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, bringing uncertainty about the future of US support for Ukraine. During the presidential campaign and transition period, Trump had repeatedly claimed he could end the war quickly, initially promising to resolve the conflict "on day one" of his term.

In the days leading up to the inauguration, Trump made controversial statements about the origins of the conflict. On January 7, Trump blamed President Joe Biden for provoking Russia's war by supporting Ukraine's NATO aspirations. "That's been like written in stone. And Biden said, 'No, they should be able to join NATO.' Then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep. I could understand their (Russia's) feelings about that," Trump said during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago.

The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy led to concerns among European allies and efforts to "Trump-proof" support for Ukraine. In June 2024, NATO countries had signed off on a plan for the alliance to take over control of part of the aid channel from the US in coordinating military aid to Ukraine. The UK was set to assume leadership of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in February 2025, taking over the role the US had held since the start of the full-scale war.

Retired US Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg was expected to be tasked with laying the foundation for a peace deal in Ukraine. Kellogg had previously laid out his vision for what a deal could look like through his work as co-chair of the pro-Trump Center for American Security within the America First Policy Institute.

Political scientist David Sirakov suggested that the January 9 Ramstein meeting could be the last in this format. "After all we know from the election campaign and from Donald Trump's environment, that is probably the case," Sirakov stated. He predicted that Trump would rely more on unilateral action than cooperation, and that further meetings might take place without American participation at different locations, possibly in Wiesbaden where NATO's new Ukraine command was stationed.

European countries sought to ramp up their own military spending and additional support for Ukraine amid concerns that Trump would end military aid. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi stated during a December 2024 briefing that several European countries were interested in deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine in an initiative led primarily by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory

Ukrainian forces continued their campaign of strikes against Russian military and energy infrastructure throughout January 2025. A Ukrainian drone and Neptune missile attack hit a Russian ammunition depot in the village of Chaltyr, Rostov Oblast. Drone attacks were also reported in Leningrad Oblast, with one strike causing a fire at an industrial area in Gatchina that burned 1,900 square meters.

The Ilya oil refinery was reported to be on fire after locals reported hearing explosions. The governor of Krasnodar Krai claimed that one person was injured while 12 homes were damaged following a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on the region. Russian forces claimed to have "neutralized" a Neptune-MD missile over the Sea of Azov and 90 drones across the Black Sea, Crimea, Krasnodar Krai and in Bryansk, Belgorod, Krasnodar, Rostov and Kursk Oblasts.

Ukrainian authorities announced an investigation following reports that hundreds of soldiers had defected from the 155th Mechanized Brigade during training in France. The investigation represented a significant concern about unit cohesion and morale after nearly three years of war.

Russian-installed authorities in Donetsk Oblast claimed that three people were killed in Ukrainian airstrikes in Donetsk city and Svitlodarsk. The Ukrainian military claimed it had carried out a strike on a command post of the Russian 3rd Army Corps in Svitlodarsk.

The Ukrainian 65th Mechanized Brigade claimed to have destroyed a Tor missile system and two Buk missile systems using drones during fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the course of one day, demonstrating the continued effectiveness of drone warfare.

Military Aid Commitments

Trump stated he would allow European countries to buy US weapons on behalf of, or transfer them to, Ukraine, suggesting a shift toward indirect rather than direct US military assistance. This position appeared to indicate a transition away from the Biden administration's approach of providing direct military aid packages.

The Biden administration had publicly promised to use all remaining Presidential Drawdown Authority funds before Trump entered office, fearing that the new administration might cut off aid immediately. However, approximately $3.8 billion in allocated funds remained unused at the time of Trump's inauguration.

Major General Dmytro Krasylnykov, commander of Ukraine's Operational Command North, was dismissed from his post in January. The circumstances of his dismissal highlighted ongoing challenges in military leadership and command structure during the conflict.

A major issue emerged regarding military desertion. In the third year of the war, the number of Ukrainian deserters increased massively. According to Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office statistics, more than 100,000 criminal cases for desertion were initiated by the end of November 2024, with over 22,000 cases of desertion registered in 2024 alone.

The UN and the Government of Ukraine launched a $2.6 billion humanitarian plan to assist some six million people in 2025. UN officials noted that the number of those in need had decreased from 14.6 million in 2024 to 12.7 million, due to improved access to services in the capital and other major urban centers. However, conditions near the front lines reached catastrophic levels.