Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus
Op Deterrence of Aggression - 12 Days to Damascus
Twelve days were enough to topple Bashar al-Assad's regime, which had been oppressing the Syrian people for more than five decades. The situation in Syria seemed frozen on the ground and politically since the signing of the ceasefire agreement under Russian-Turkish sponsorship in Idlib Governorate in March 2020, which halted the extensive military operations between opposition forces and government forces in northwestern Syria.
Syrian armed opposition has been working to strengthen its military capabilities, transforming its structure into a semi-regular armed force, and improving its level of training. “What we are seeing now is the result of the past few years of training and professionalization of HTS forces,” said Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
On the other hand, government forces were witnessing increasing internal deterioration due to the collapse of the currency, the weakness of the economy, and the spread of corruption and crime. Charles Lister, a researcher specializing in Syrian affairs, even described the Syrian regime as “the largest drug state in the world,” due to its reliance on the proceeds of the Captagon drug trade to support corruption networks, which include military leaders, militias, and warlords.
Things remained in an artificial calm even as the region was ignited by the Israeli war on Gaza and southern Lebanon, but on November 26, the regime’s artillery shelled the city of Ariha in the Aleppo countryside, which is under opposition control, killing and wounding 16 people, which further inflamed the situation on the ground.
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, November 27, the Syrian opposition factions launched a military operation against the Syrian government forces and their allies under the name of “deterring aggression,” following violent confrontations in the areas of engagement in the western Aleppo countryside and the eastern Idlib countryside, the first of its kind since the March 2020 agreement.
During the first hours of its surprise attack, the armed opposition made significant progress and appeared in a more cohesive and organized form through the “Operation Deterrence of Aggression Operation Room,” where it took control of 20 towns and villages in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib, in addition to the base of the 46th Regiment, the most important strategic point on the road to Aleppo.
The next day, November 28, the opposition took control of additional villages in the eastern Idlib countryside, bringing them just a few kilometers from the M5 highway, which links northern and southern Syria and connects the most important strategic cities of Aleppo, Homs and Hama. The next morning, the forces continued to advance in the Idlib and Aleppo countrysides, capturing new villages and cities, the most important of which is the city of Saraqib in the Idlib countryside, located at the junction of two international roads.
Aleppo is the first stop
On the same day, November 29, the opposition launched an intensive attack on the city of Aleppo, and within hours succeeded in taking control of several main neighborhoods, including Al-Hamdaniya, Al-Jamiliya, and Salah al-Din, and by the end of the day the forces reached the main square in the center of the city. In the early hours of November 30, the opposition was able to take control of the Aleppo Citadel and the governor's headquarters. In the face of this advance, government forces withdrew to limited strongholds in Idlib, while they also retreated in Aleppo.
Meanwhile, it was announced that the opposition had seized large quantities of weapons left behind by the regime, including T-90A tanks, an S-125 Neva air defense system battery, Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2 systems, in addition to helicopters and fighter jets that were stationed at the Aleppo and Menagh air bases.
Hama next stop
By the evening of November 30, the opposition had made rapid advances into Hama province, taking control of dozens of key towns and villages, and had captured Aleppo International Airport, which had initially fallen under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces. In contrast, regime forces were reinforced around Hama, and large reinforcements were deployed in areas such as Jabal Zein al-Abidin. Russia also launched several heavy airstrikes, including one on a refugee camp in Idlib that killed nine civilians and wounded dozens, and another that targeted Aleppo University Hospital, killing 12 people.
The battles around Hama were among the fiercest in this wave of confrontations, but the opposition succeeded in resolving matters, taking advantage of the deteriorating condition of the regular forces. By December 5, the opposition announced its control of Hama and its advance towards its central prison, managing to release hundreds of prisoners, while the regime announced the deployment of its forces outside the city.
The fall of Hama was a premature death certificate for the regime, which had not lost control of the city since 2011, and it opened the way for the opposition to seize two towns of symbolic importance without a fight: Muhardeh, which is inhabited by many Christians, and Salamiyah, which is an Ismaili community and which the opposition entered thanks to an agreement with the city’s sheikhs and its Ismaili religious council.
The outskirts of Homs
These developments put the opposition on the outskirts of the city of Rastan, where it seized a strategic military base in the north. To confront this advance, Russian aircraft launched a raid targeting the main bridge linking Homs and Hama, in an attempt to hinder the opposition’s advance. Homs is the main hub of Syria's railway and highway network, making it the main and easiest corridor for the movement of goods, people and military forces throughout the country.
Perhaps these reasons made the Syrian regime's defense of Homs relatively different, as Assad's forces realize that their loss of Homs is a major, irreparable loss on the ground, and that the opposition's control over it gives them a decisive strategic advantage. The opposition's control of Homs paved the way within a few hours to control the city of Qusayr, one of the most important border cities with Lebanon. But that did not prevent the opposition from advancing, as it captured the city of Rastan on December 6, placing it on an open road towards Homs.
Kurdish movements
In conjunction with these developments, and in an attempt to exploit the retreat of regime forces in northwestern Syria, the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces began to strengthen their positions since the end of November, and seized strategic locations in Aleppo from which government forces had withdrawn, the most important of which are Aleppo International Airport and the towns of Nubl and Zahraa, before these areas were later lost to the opposition.
On December 3, the Syrian Democratic Forces launched a surprise attack on Syrian army positions near the towns of Khasham and Al-Salihiyah in Deir Ezzor, aiming to consolidate their control in the eastern region. However, these forces were forced to withdraw hours after their advance. But by December 5, the SDF had advanced towards Raqqa, taking control of oil fields in the areas of al-Thawra and al-Rusafa, in addition to other strategic locations after the withdrawal of regime forces and groups loyal to it.
On December 6, regime forces began a major withdrawal from Deir ez-Zor, al-Mayadin, al-Qouriya, and al-Bukamal towards Damascus to strengthen the position of the government and fugitive President Bashar al-Assad; as a result, the SDF was able to extend its control over the city of Deir ez-Zor and extended towards al-Bukamal and the Iraqi border, strengthening its influence in the eastern region.
Damascus and the fall of Assad
On the evening of December 6, regime forces suddenly withdrew from Sweida towards the capital Damascus to strengthen their defenses there, opening the way for local opposition forces to take control of the city with little resistance. On the morning of December 7, the rapid collapse of government forces continued as they withdrew from the city of Quneitra, located on the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, to be taken by the opposition within a few hours.
On December 7, also, and in the face of the successive withdrawals of the regime forces in the face of the opposition’s advance, the latter was able to overcome the remnants of the regime forces in the city of Homs and enter it in the evening of that day, where it celebrated confirming its control over its most prominent squares and the mosque of the companion Khalid bin al-Walid.
On the same day, opposition forces advanced into the southern Damascus countryside, and once again regime forces withdrew from a number of important towns, leaving the opposition only 10 kilometers from the outskirts of Damascus, in an exciting development that reflected the extent of the military pressure that Syrian forces faced in those areas.
On December 7, armed opposition forces and fighters from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham encircled Damascus. Within a single night, they seized the strategic city of Homs, encountering little resistance, and advanced into Damascus itself. Along their path, they freed prisoners from numerous detention facilities, including Syria’s largest prison, Saydnaya, symbolizing the regime’s total loss of control.
By midday on December 7, panic had engulfed the city. Syrian soldiers, shedding their uniforms for civilian attire, fled the capital in haste, leaving it nearly defenseless. By nightfall, the streets of Damascus were deserted of military personnel, replaced by frightened citizens scrambling to stockpile food and flee their homes. This exodus was particularly evident in the affluent northern districts, where residents departed en masse, fearing chaos. In contrast, the southern part of the city presented a starkly different scene: There, the opposition was welcomed as liberators. Crowds gathered in celebration, waving flags, and in a climactic act of defiance, the statue of Hafez Assad, founder of the modern Syrian regime and father of Bashar Assad, was torn down.
Over the previous ten days, there had been no decisive confrontations on the regime’s part, not only because the regime’s forces are weak, but also because no one is willing to fight for Assad. On the other hand, the Syrian opposition has been winning diplomatically and strategically, not just militarily. As Charles Lister, a Syria scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, has written, the opposition has negotiated with Ismaili notables, Assad’s military and civilian leadership, and Sunni tribes, leading to mostly peaceful opposition takeovers.
After the opposition besieged the capital, especially those coming from the Daraa and Sweida fronts from the south, and from the eastern and western countryside of Damascus, and with the dawn of December 8, the opposition was able to control the capital, Damascus, and enter all strategic and vital institutions such as the Mezzeh military airport, the People's Palace, the radio and television building, and the General Staff.
The commander of the Syrian opposition’s military operations department, Ahmed al-Sharaa, nicknamed al-Julani, gave a speech at the Umayyad Mosque in the heart of Damascus, in which he said, “The victory that has been achieved is a victory for all Syrians,” and stressed that “the deposed president, Bashar al-Assad, spread sectarianism, and today our country belongs to all of us.” The armed opposition forces were able to topple Bashar al-Assad’s regime in twelve days of fighting, fourteen years after the first chant!
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