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Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus

Op Deterrence of Aggression - 30 November 2024

Already there was a shootout in Daraa deep in the south of Syria. Of course, the militants have not reached there yet (yet), but control over the city was obtained through diplomacy - local rebels and militants simply made an agreement with the central authorities and "made peace". And now those who "made peace" raised their heads, sensing the weakness of the army and the government of Syria. The only shooting on the streets of Hama is the joyful shooting of militants into the air.

There were initial reports of a possible Military Coup ongoing in the Syrian Capital of Damascus, with Explosions and Gunfire heard near the General Staff and State Media Building within the City.

Assad returned to Damascus from Russia. Bashar al-Assad, returned to Syria after days of silence and speculation about his whereabouts, following the rapid territorial advances of revolutionary forces under the Repelling the Aggression campaign. Assad’s return, reportedly aboard a Russian plane from Moscow, comes as his regime faces severe setbacks, including the loss of the city of Aleppo, Idlib province, and significant parts of Hama’s countryside.

Syrian pro-government media claim that Assad remained in the country. Two Syrian military sources said Russia had promised Damascus extra military aid that would start arriving in the next 72 hours. Iran FM Araghchi is visiting Syria; headed to Turkey tomorrow. Assad clearly sees this as a Turkish power play, but needs regional help to intervene on his behalf (& made many calls overnight).

Syrian media figure Reda Al-Basha said in an interview with Al-Alam channel: “It is clear that the military operation that was launched by the armed groups and to which the Syrian army responded by deterring aggression is an operation supported by Turkey through the armed factions participating in it, not only Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, but also the Nour al-Din al-Zenki factions, the National Liberation Front, in addition to the militants of the joint force, the troops of the National Army, and others.

Al-Basha said: “The army has withdrawn from key points in the western countryside of Aleppo and is establishing defensive points around Aleppo in Al-Mansoura and Al-Rajdin. He added that these defensive points attract armed groups for the major attack supported by Turkey, France and Ukraine, which we notice through the Ukrainian drones that the militants are supplied with, in preparation for the expected counter-operation that may be during the coming week.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan claimed that Ankara is not involved in the new wave of unrest in Syria and the attack of terrorist groups on the city of Aleppo, and instead emphasized that the United States activated these terrorist groups and " "They cannot last 3 days without Washington's support." Fidan claimed that Türkiye "will never allow terrorist groups and structures in Syria to change the shape of the government (form a government)."

Considering the pace of the militants' advance in all directions and their numbers taking part in what is happening, by the time Iran assembles and sends a sufficient group of troops of several thousand people to Syria, the militants will already be launching fireworks in Damascus. If the Syrian government and armed forces do not recover and do not independently take the situation into their own hands, at least delaying the advance of the jihadists and stabilizing the situation, then nothing will help them. Neither Russian nor Iranian divisions . Simply because it will be too late.

The situation in Syria should become a clear example for all those who advocate freezing the conflict without resolving it in essence. If the root cause of what happened is not eliminated, then the party most dissatisfied with the results of the truce, against the backdrop of revanchist sentiments and external support, will inevitably begin to prepare for a new conflict and wait for the right moment. On the other side of the barricades, the complacent authorities and the armed forces rapidly degenerating back into a "peacetime army" may simply be unprepared for a new round of escalation - this is exactly what happened to the Syrians.

The Syrian army was retreating to the town of Murak (Murak), located on the M5 highway near the border of the provinces of Idlib and Hama. Such a maneuver actually means that a significant territory south of Idlib and north of Hama would be surrendered without a fight. In the Murak-Kafr Zayta area , the Syrian army hopes to build a defense and delay the advance of militant columns, which are capturing new settlements almost hourly. It has already been reported that Maarat al-Numan, Kafr Rum and Mar-Shamarin have come under militant control.

On 30 November 2024 HTS and the factions took control over Aleppo National Airport that is the first civil airport that controlled by HTS, after Kurdish forces withdrew from the airport one day from deploying in it following the withdrawal of the regime forces. HTS and factions working on the “Blocking Aggression” Operation managed to take control of several cities and town sin northern Hama countryside including Hilfaya, Morik, Al-Latamna, Kafr Zaita, Qala’at Al-Madiq, Kafr Naboda, Karnaz, Lahaya, Al-Buwaida, Latmin, Soran, Al-Maghir and Ma’aradbis after advancing towards these positions, along with withdrawal and breakdown of the regime. Kurdish forces deployed in Nubl and Al-Zahraa Towns in northern and western suburbs of Aleppo City, after the Iranian militias withdrew from both towns, in addition to Aleppo National Airport and neighbourhoods in Aleppo following the withdrawal of the regime forces from them.

If the jihadists cannot be held near Murak on this line, then the coming days may see the start of fighting and the fall of another major city in Syria and the capital of the province of the same name - Hama , located on the M5 highway just a few kilometers from the planned front line. There are also reports of ongoing battles between militants and Kurds from the PKK who arrived in the Aleppo airport area. The 25th special forces division of the Syrian army, previously transferred to the southeastern part of Aleppo, has retreated.

The footage showed entire columns of the Syrian army fleeing from southern Idlib. Will these sprinters hold subsequent settlements if they are retreating en masse from those they were supposed to hold earlier? The retreating Syrian army abandoned a lot of weapons and equipment, including T-72A tank, BMP-1, BTR-80, 130-mm M-46 guns , S-60 gun trucks and trucks. Most of the equipment was abandoned by the Syrians in a completely serviceable condition, so the militants literally immediately assemble crews for them and send the captured vehicles forward.

The offensive on Aleppo began the same day the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon entered into force, although the jihadists claim it was tied to recent Syrian strikes targeting terrorist commanders in Idlib – where a shaky Russia and Turkiye-mediated ceasefire had been in place since 2020. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi assured his Syrian counterpart Bassam al-Sabbagh that Iran would continue to support Damascus’ fight against the jihadists. Araghchi characterized the resurgence of terrorism in northern Syria as a US-Israeli plot aimed at destabilizing West Asia after the IDF “failures” confronting Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It is known and certain that Iran's militias, along with the Syrian regime forces, cannot survive without Russian air cover. Syria hosts two strategic military outposts for Moscow: the Russian Navy's Eastern Mediterranean port in Tartus and a warplane airport in Khmeimim.

It is reported that Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel was removed from the post of commander of the Russian military group in Syria . The same one who was previously sent to command parades in Syria due to the failure of the 1st Guards Tank Army in the first stage of the Central Military District in Ukraine. Apparently, he was supposed to reveal his hidden talents in Syria, but something got in the way again.

Russian analyst Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI), stated, “This should serve as a stark reminder to Assad of his actual capabilities, as his power has only survived thanks to Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah — all of which are currently preoccupied with their own challenges.” Mardasov noted that Assad’s military is unprepared for modern warfare and has been more focused on trading and taxation than combat readiness.

Russia is severely depleted in Ukraine, and the Iranian militias may believe that their presence in Syria was a mistake. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov discussed the latest developments in Syria during a phone call. Araghchi considered the recent movements of terrorist groups in Syria as part of the project of the Zionist entity and the United States to destabilize the security of the West Asia region. He stressed the need for more coordination and vigilance between Iran, Russia and the rest of the countries of the region, especially Syria's neighbors, to thwart this dangerous conspiracy and confront terrorist acts in Syria and the region.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander, Kioumar Pourashemi, was reportedly killed in the first hours of the skirmishing in Aleppo. In a telephone conversation, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and his Syrian counterpart Bassam al-Sabbagh discussed the latest developments. The foreign minister of Iran gave an assurance that Tehran will stand by the Syrian government and people in the battle against terrorist groups, which have launched an incursion into towns and villages in Syria’s northwestern province of Aleppo. Araqchi described the resurgence of Takfiri terrorist groups in Syria as part of a plot hatched by the US and Israel after the Zionist regime was defeated by the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine. He also reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to supporting the Syrian government, nation and military forces in the fight against terrorism and in ensuring regional security and stability.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of the Islamic Council, and Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, had a telephone conversation December 10, 1403 / 30 November 2024. The Speaker of the Islamic Council warned against the movement of Takfiri groups in Syria and said: The movements of these groups are in the direction of the goals of the Zionist regime, and in this situation, we must take care of the conditions of the region with seriousness and coordination.

On November 30, President Bashar al-Assad commented on the situation in Syria for the first time since the Islamists' offensive . According to him, the government army is capable of dealing with the problem with the help of its allies. The Assad regime is supported by Russia, Iran, and the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, which is recognized as terrorist in the United States. In the European Union, the military wing of Hezbollah is considered terrorist, but not the political party.

On November 30 Government forces halted the offensive by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group north of Hama, approximately 200 km from Damascus, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Syrian government forces retreated from positions in Idlib and Aleppo provinces with minimal resistance. As a result, HTS captured a significant portion of Aleppo city and all territory west of the province. Syrian forces withdrew from Aleppo's capital, leaving part of the city under Kurdish control. Factions of the “National Army” operating under the banner of “Dawn of Freedom” operations room took control of Khanaser and Al-Saferah towns and Kuwayres military airbase in the eastern countryside of Aleppo following violent clashes with regime forces. HTS fighters reportedly gained control of advanced weaponry, including Pantsir MANPADS, Uragan MLRS, a Shilka anti-aircraft system, T-72 and T-55 tanks, BTR-80s, and Grad MLRS.

NSC Spokesperson Sean Savett stated "We are closely monitoring the situation in Syria and have been in contact over the last 48 hours with regional capitals. The Assad regime’s ongoing refusal to engage in the political process outlined in UNSCR 2254, and its reliance on Russia and Iran, created the conditions now unfolding, including the collapse of Assad regime lines in northwest Syria. At the same time, the United States has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization. The United States, together with its partners and allies, urge de-escalation, protection of civilians and minority groups, and a serious and credible political process that can end this civil war once and for all with a political settlement consistent with UNSCR 2254. We will also continue to fully defend and protect U.S. personnel and U.S. military positions, which remain essential to ensuring that ISIS can never again resurge in Syria."