Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus
Op Deterrence of Aggression - 03 December 2024
The “Deterrence of Aggression” [AR = Rada al-Adwan, also seen as "Deterring Aggression" and "Aggression Shield" ] battle was launched by the Syrian opposition factions against the Syrian regime forces and the militias supporting it to direct a "preemptive strike against the Syrian regime forces".
December 3, 2024, the fighters of the "Military Operations Administration" achieved extensive progress at the expense of the regime forces in strategic areas in the Hama countryside, announcing the liberation of the "Al-Majanzarat School", one of the largest military bases of the regime east of Hama, in addition to the strategic town of "Maarshhour" near the city of Hama, as part of the seventh day of the "Deterrence of Aggression" operation. The control of the "Response to Aggression" operations room on its seventh day represents an important advance in the course of the battles, especially on the eastern axis of the city of Hama in central Syria. The school includes headquarters and logistical centers for Iranian militias.
The first failure was the intelligence service of Assad’s army. Even observers watching opposition groups on social media could see that something big was happening – but they didn’t. The second issue is the lack of professional and well-trained soldiers in the ranks of Assad’s army. The backbone of this force consists of conscripts, most of whom are opposed to his regime. The rest are poorly paid – sometimes going months without salaries – leaving them in brutal poverty. The third issue is the inefficient chain of command. Over the last decade, this army’s leadership has failed to implement basic defensive measures, such as digging trenches or fortifying positions to slow potential enemy advances. And the soldiers themselves have never been trained for such scenarios.
This army was caught entirely off-guard by the attack. While any military can face a surprise assault, the ability to hold defensive lines depends on pre-built fortifications, proper training, and the soldiers’ willingness to stand their ground – not to mention reliable equipment. Assad’s army lacks all of these. It never had them, and the situation has only worsened in the last ten years. Thousands of semi-trained soldiers have been killed, and there is no budget to modernise the army.
It took just 72 hours for the Syrian army and its Russian- and Iran-backed allies to lose all the territory they had “liberated” from Islamist rebel groups in Aleppo province in five years of bloody fighting between 2014 and 2019. The regime forces left behind an unprecedented stockpile of weapons and ammunition, including jets, missiles, and tanks. In Iran – Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s most important ally – criticism has mounted, with some observers deriding the Syrian army as being “not even good enough for a military parade”.
Even retreat has its rules and professional methods, but the Assad army never retreats properly – they just run away. As a result, they always leave behind large quantities of weapons and ammunition for their enemies. Over the years, almost all the ammunition and most of the anti-tank missiles used by armed groups against Assad’s forces originally came from the stockpiles abandoned by his army. These groups simply confiscated them. But this time, the quantities seen in the videos are enormous for a single operation and include several types of heavy weapons that opposition forces have been able to obtain for the first time in the Syrian war.
The captured weapons can be divided into two categories: those that armed groups are able to use, and those they can only display in videos for propaganda purposes but cannot actually operate. These groups are able to use the anti-tank guided missiles, artillery, mortars, tanks, and APCs. And that can make a huge difference. However, would not be able to operate the fighter jets or anti-air missile systems. These require trained personnel, and they simply don’t have them. Turkey cannot help them either because most of these weapons are Russian-made, and the Turks are unfamiliar with them.
The militias of the "25th Special Tasks Division" used the "Al-Mazanjarat" school, which is called "Al-Majanzarat", in the eastern countryside of Hama Governorate, as a place to conduct military training, some of which was supervised by Russia, as the school includes a shooting range, a helicopter landing pad, and many buildings and fortifications.
The Operations Department announced in the morning the liberation of the cities and towns of (Taybat al-Imam, Halfaya, and Maardis), after violent battles at night, in which dozens of members of the Taramih militia were killed, and Tal al-Nasiriyah north of Hama, the town of Khattab and the strategic Khattab area, Arza, and al-Tuwaini, to tighten the noose on the regime forces and get closer to the city of Hama.
It announced targeting two "jamming systems" of the regime forces in Jabal Zain al-Abidin, north of Hama city, destroying a cannon in the city of Mahardah, targeting a regime convoy in Kafr'a, north of Hama, in addition to killing 5 regime elements in Breidej in the Hama countryside after they were targeted by a Shaheen drone, targeting the "Hama Military Airport" with "Shaheen" drones and achieving direct hits, in addition to destroying a BMP vehicle in the armored vehicles school.
With the liberation of "Taybat al-Imam, Halfaya and Maardis", the confrontation became more intense as the factions in the "Military Operations Administration" approached the town of Qamhana and Jabal Zain al-Abidin, the most fortified and powerful areas of the regime, and once they are defeated there, the factions will be directly at the gates of the city of Hama.
The Military Operations Department issued a circular December 3, 2024, calling on all regime soldiers (army, security, and police) who remained in the liberated city of Aleppo to visit the designated police stations to complete their procedures and protect them legally. The circular stressed that failure to complete the procedures exposes the violator to appropriate legal prosecution and lifts the immunity granted to them by the Military Operations Department.
Sham News Network reported that the regime forces increased their forces in the Malouk camp near the city of Talbiseh in the northern Homs countryside, and raised earthen barriers at the entrance to the Homs countryside from the northern side. The information received indicates that there is confusion among the ranks of Assad's militias in Homs, and these fears are reinforced by the escape of several cars carrying families of figures loyal to the Assad regime towards the Syrian coast.
Assad's forces cut off Homs' communications with cement barriers, especially in Deir Baalba, Al-Sina'a, Al-Qusour, Al-Qarabis, and Al-Bayada. They also closed all side roads, especially in the old neighborhoods of Homs. Sources reported that Assad's militias and Iran are seeking to fortify the city of Homs to be a last line of defense after the fall of Hama, where Assad's gangs are trying to buy time to reorganize their ranks.
The regime forces turned the Al-Sham Road sports hall near the Basman Hotel in Homs into an operations and launching headquarters for Iranian militias, and they also reinforced their positions in the Al-Kam area, which has a Shiite majority. The State Security Branch in Homs placed missile platforms within the branch, in addition to positioning artillery and a missile base at the Gardenia Tower and the surrounding orchards in the city of Homs, and heavy equipment with increased fortification.
It is worth noting that among the movements, the Iranian militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard also turned the Husseiniya and the Imam "Zine El Abidine Ben Ali" complex in the Abbasiya neighborhood into their operations headquarters. It is reported that Iranian officers within the Air Force Intelligence Branch in Homs held several meetings amidst a high security alert within the branch, where several cars were observed entering amidst a heavy presence of elements on the roads leading to the branch, amidst great confusion that coincided with the advance of the revolutionaries towards Hama.
Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party in Turkey, said that it is not too late for Bashar al-Assad to start a dialogue with Turkey, considering that it is in his interest to establish a dialogue with Turkey. This comes at a time when several parties loyal to the regime and allied with it are pointing fingers at Turkey for supporting the factions’ operations in the “Deterrence of Aggression” battle in northern Syria." Bahçeli added in a speech during a meeting of his party's parliamentary bloc, that "Assad did not hold Turkey's extended hand and covered his ears, and could not bear the Turkish army's war against terrorism. Syria is a controversial country." He stressed that "in our opinion, it is not too late, and it is in his (Bashar's) interest to establish dialogue with us, and he must establish contacts with Turkey without preconditions," stressing that "Turkey has no interest or ambitions in the territory of any country."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that his country is closely following the recent developments that suddenly erupted in Syria during the past few days, stressing the importance of preserving the unity of Syrian territory, and noting that Turkey's position on the Syrian crisis is clear and based on its national priorities and fixed policies. Erdogan considered in a tweet on his official account on the "X" platform that the recent events in Syria confirmed the correctness of the Turkish position, which has long been calling for the need to be cautious of the impact of the cycle of violence in the Middle East on Syria.
The Turkish President stressed that Turkey's greatest wish is to end the 13-year-old instability in Syria, in line with the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people, while preserving the country's territorial integrity and national cohesion. He stressed that his country is following the field situation moment by moment within the priorities of national security, stressing that all necessary measures will be taken to prevent any measures that may threaten these priorities. He concluded his speech by stressing that the stability of Syria is a necessity to achieve security in the entire region.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in a joint conference with his Iranian counterpart December 2, 2024 that his country does not want the internal war in Syria to escalate further. "It is wrong at this stage to try to explain the events in Syria by foreign intervention. This is the refuge of those who do not want to understand the facts related to Syria," Fidan said. He added: "The reason behind the outbreak of large-scale conflicts again in Syria is that the interconnected problems in this country have not been resolved for more than 13 years." Fidan described the ignoring of the legitimate demands of the Syrian opposition and the regime's failure to participate sincerely in the political process as a "mistake."
International statements have continued regarding the recent developments in Syria after the start of the "Deterrence of Aggression" battle, which achieved significant progress at the expense of the Syrian regime forces in the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. Countries and international organizations stressed the need to find a political solution and stop the escalation in the north of the country, with calls to protect civilians and stop targeting infrastructure.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, during an event in London, called on the Syrian regime and all parties to work towards a political solution that would stop the ongoing conflict in the country. He stressed the need to put an end to the humanitarian tragedy and achieve peace.
The US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said that the Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad is ignoring Security Council resolutions and refusing to sit at the negotiating table. Greenfield stressed the importance of finding ways to achieve peace and security in Syria, stressing that current developments are worrisome, and that the United States will closely follow the situation in cooperation with its regional partners.
Patrick Ryder, the spokesman for the US Department of Defense (Pentagon), called on the conflicting parties in Syria to reduce the escalation that has been ongoing since last Wednesday, after opposition factions launched a large-scale attack on regime forces in the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. The spokesman confirmed in a press briefing on Monday that "the United States has nothing to do with what is happening in Syria," noting that American forces in the region were subjected to a missile attack, but that it did not cause any injuries.
"We are prepared to defend our interests and forces in the region, particularly those operating in Syria, to ensure the defeat of ISIS," Ryder said, adding that "there is no change in our force deployment in northeastern Syria, and we continue to monitor the situation closely." Ryder confirmed that DoD is in contact with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), noting that they are "a key partner in the mission to defeat ISIS," adding, "I will not talk about their potential future operations."
In the context, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller expressed his hope for a de-escalation in Syria, after the attack launched by opposition factions, and said that Washington hopes for the election of a new president for Lebanon.
US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savitt said that the Syrian regime's continued refusal to engage in the political process stipulated in UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and its reliance on Russian and Iranian support has led to the collapse of regime lines in northwestern Syria. The spokesman expressed his country's concern about the recent developments in Syria, noting that the United States is closely monitoring the situation and has been in contact with regional capitals over the past 48 hours.
The spokesman stressed that the United States has nothing to do with the attack by the opposition forces in Syria, and that the field progress achieved by Tahrir al-Sham, which is classified on the American terrorist lists, in cooperation with Syrian opposition factions in Aleppo and the neighboring provinces of Idlib and Hama, has raised questions about the rapid withdrawal of the regime forces and the militias loyal to it.
The White House stressed its call for de-escalation and protection of civilians and minority groups, while emphasizing the need to launch a serious and viable political process to end the civil war in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, and affirmed the United States' commitment to fully defend its personnel and military sites in Syria to ensure that ISIS does not return again.
For its part, the European Union, in a statement issued by the European External Action Service, condemned the airstrikes launched by Russia on civilian areas in northern Syria. It expressed its concern about the continued Russian support for the Syrian regime, called for reducing tensions and protecting civilians, and stressed the importance of reaching a political solution in accordance with UN resolutions.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres also expressed concern over the escalation of violence in northwestern Syria, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to the political process in accordance with Resolution 2254. His spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, stressed that the recent escalation has led to changes in borders, displacement of civilians, and damage to infrastructure. Guterres noted the importance of communicating with the Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, to ensure a return to the political track.
Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it is working with its partners in the region to find solutions to end the fighting that has been going on in Syria for about a week. The spokesman for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Majed Al-Ansari, said that “the political solution is the only way to resolve the crisis of the Syrian people,” stressing that “there will be a comprehensive solution in Syria based on international resolutions,” and he stressed that “we are working with our partners in the region to find solutions to end the fighting in Syria.”
The Arab League said in a statement that it is following with great concern the developments on the ground in Syria, stressing the need to respect the unity, sovereignty and integrity of its territories, in the context of its comment on the "Deterrence of Aggression" operation that led to major collapses in the ranks of the Assad regime in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama. Jamal Rushdi, the official spokesman for the Secretary-General of the Arab League, said, "The League is following with great concern the developments on the ground in Syria, and stresses the need to respect the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic."
Avichay Adraee, the Israeli army spokesman, said that Israel “is closely following what is happening in Syria,” stressing that Tel Aviv “will prevent the Iranian regime from exploiting the situation to transfer weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syrian territory.” Adraee explained that “Hezbollah suffered a defeat in the last battle, and it must be ensured that it does not smuggle weapons into Lebanon.”
For his part, Major General Tamir Yadai, commander of the Israeli ground forces, expressed his growing concern about the situation in Syria, saying: “The situation in Syria is very concerning to us. If the rebels defeat the Syrian regime, in the future we will see them all on our border.”
In the same context, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar indicated that Israel is dealing cautiously with the Syrian scene, saying: “We do not want to side with any party. There is no good choice between the Syrian regime and the jihadist rebels.” He added: “We have to watch how the Syrian scene is shaping up and not from afar.”
“It is unlikely that Syria will regain its central sovereignty over all of its territory as it did before,” Sa’ar explained, noting that “a federal model that gives minorities, such as the Druze and Kurds, a greater role may be the most realistic solution.” He also stressed the importance of taking into account the interests of minorities, especially the Kurds in northern Syria, saying: “We must understand their desires and how we can benefit from the situation to enhance cooperation.”
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
