Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus
Op Deterrence of Aggression - 04 December 2024
The “Deterrence of Aggression” [AR = Rada al-Adwan, also seen as "Deterring Aggression" and "Aggression Shield" ] battle was launched by the Syrian opposition factions against the Syrian regime forces and the militias supporting it to direct a "preemptive strike against the Syrian regime forces".
The escalation in northwest Syria placed Aleppo at the center of renewed conflict, following clashes that broke out shortly after a ceasefire was announced in Lebanon. This unexpected flare-up marked the beginning of a new phase of violence not seen in four years, as a coalition of armed groups, including the Türkiye-backed Syrian National Army and jihadist factions like the Levant Liberation Organization (formerly Jebhat al-Nusra), launched a calculated offensive on the city of over two million inhabitants.
For his part, military and strategic analyst Hatem Al-Falahi - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - believes that what is happening now on the Syrian scene is a quasi-Turkish-Russian agreement. Turkey has been pressing during the past few days to reach an agreement with the Syrian regime, but it refused. Russia then wanted to prove to Iran and the regime that they must bear responsibility for decisions that could be painful.
The battle for Aleppo was about more than just the city itself. It’s a microcosm of the broader regional power struggles that have defined Syria’s civil war. This renewed offensive calls into question the stability of the region as well as the efficacy of diplomatic efforts by the rest of the world. Despite international attempts to broker peace, Syria remains deeply divided and now, more than ever, the geopolitical stakes in Aleppo couldn’t be higher.
In a well-coordinated attack, fighters from several militant groups entered the city’s western suburbs, advancing toward Saadallah al-Jabri Square, the symbolic center of the city. This marks a shift in strategy, as these groups had already seized significant territory in the north and west of Aleppo, as well as parts of eastern Idlib. For many locals, the rapid advance of militants was a shocking development, a grim reminder that peace was still far from reach.
The Syrian army’s response was underwhelming. Its defense ministry issued a statement acknowledging a “large-scale” and “unexpected” attack by opposition forces but failed to present a convincing counteroffensive strategy. Reports have also surfaced of airstrikes by Russian and Syrian forces targeting the supply routes of militants in the suburbs of Aleppo and Idlib. These efforts may not tip the balance, casting doubt over Damascus’ capacity to hold off the insurgents in the face of this new wave of aggression.
Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo was both an economic hub and a vital stronghold for the government’s control over the country. Its capture by extremist groups would be a devastating blow to Damascus’ authority. Situated less than 200 miles (310 kms) from the capital, the ancient city holds both symbolic and strategic importance. Its fall would shift the balance of power in Syria and would severely weaken the government of Bashar Assad.
What makes this latest battle even more complex was the role of Iran, whose forces have a significant presence in Syria. Despite the large number of Iranian military facilities – including 52 military bases and 177 additional sites in Aleppo – Iranian forces have failed to take decisive action against the advancing terrorist groups. This inaction raises questions about Tehran’s strategy in Syria, as its military infrastructure seems increasingly vulnerable to attacks from more agile opposition forces.
Why has Iran, with its substantial military presence, failed to counter these groups effectively? The absence of air support and a broader reliance on Syrian infrastructure could be major factors in this failure. On top of these shortcomings, Iranian forces have been hesitant to engage directly, perhaps due to the larger geopolitical context and to the looming threat of Israeli and international coalition strikes. This strategic hesitation was allowing groups labeled as terrorist organizations to infiltrate Aleppo with little resistance.
Meanwhile, Damascus has been forced to acknowledge the worsening situation, announcing that it would be bolstering military supplies to strengthen its position. However, these efforts seem reactive rather than proactive, a sign that its military strategy was increasingly on the defensive.
The most prominent aspect of this rapid advance of the opposition forces was the successive withdrawals of the Syrian regime forces, and the state of collapse that struck it at the level of leadership and individuals, which made it easy for the opposition to enter Aleppo, for example, without fighting. This rapid decline and successive withdrawals have raised many questions about the readiness and effectiveness of the regime forces, despite the presence of regional and international allies.
The opposition's performance has developed greatly in recent years, as it has gained extensive experience in combat, and has become better organized and more disciplined, in addition to the remarkable development in the field of local manufacturing of weapons, equipment and military vehicles, as well as the development in military technology, represented by night-vision and communication devices. Among the important developments witnessed by these industries is the widespread use of armored personnel carriers, most of which are locally manufactured and developed, which contributed to transporting soldiers to the front lines in a safe manner, in addition to the development of night fighting mechanisms among these factions, including night vision equipment and thermal snipers, which facilitated the exploitation of night periods to advance and monitor the movements of the regime and its militias. Military and strategic expert Abdullah Al-Asaad told Al Jazeera Net that these thermal snipers operate under infrared rays (X-rays), so that the element entrenched behind a cover can, based on the scope, carry out an accurate sniper operation that enables the regime forces’ tactics to be restricted. In addition to the development of local manufacturing processes, the security and military reality witnessed a state of “institutionalization,” based - as officials explained - upon its establishment on curricula and training courses that suit the Syrian reality.
This includes the issuance of a decision by the so-called “ Salvation Government ” in Idlib, affiliated with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, in March 2021 to form a “Military College.” The first batch graduated in September 2022, and included 400 officers from various military factions in Idlib and the western Aleppo countryside.
The most notable development in the field of military industries for the opposition was represented by the “Shaheen” drones. Since the first day of the battle, the “Military Operations Department” published a video clip of what it called the “Shaheen Brigades” entitled “We will reach you wherever you are,” through which it announced the use of drones in offensive operations. The clip showed drones launched with initial push by a person, and other drones with four rotors launched from a dedicated platform.
By using these drones, the opposition forces were able to achieve specific goals, including targeting the head of the Military Security Branch in the city of Hama on Sunday, December 1, followed on the second day by targeting a large gathering of regime officers at the summit of Mount Zein al-Abidin in northern Hama, according to what was reported by the “Military Operations Department.”
In addition to targeting the leadership and operations rooms of the regime forces, these drones were used to bomb tanks, military fortifications, ammunition depots, and military convoys, in addition to destroying two helicopters at Al-Nayrab Airport before they took off, and dropping leaflets in areas where the regime forces were present, calling on elements to defect from it.
In this context, Rashid Hourani, a researcher in military affairs at the Jusoor Center for Studies, revealed that these drones were used to carry out precise and rapid security breaches, which contributed to destabilizing the ranks of the regime forces. These operations were manifested in the announcement of the “Military Operations Department” targeting Headquarters 30 in the city of Aleppo, on the first day of the opposition forces’ advance towards the city, which led to the killing of a large number of command officers in Aleppo, and this led - according to Hourani - to a large withdrawal and escape of the elements who lost contact with the command.
It is noteworthy that on the day the opposition attack on Aleppo began, Thursday, November 28, the Iranian Tasnim News Agency announced the killing of one of the senior Iranian advisors, the leader of the Revolutionary Guards, Brigadier General Kiomars Pour Hashemi, in an attack launched by militants on Aleppo, according to the agency.
The opposition forces were able to take control of huge weapons stores that include anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, rocket shells, more than 100 tanks, rocket launchers, and other special and heavy equipment, following the regime’s withdrawal from civilian and military airports, regiments, colleges, and weapons and ammunition manufacturing plants, most notably: Aleppo Military Airport, Kuweires Airport, military colleges, defense and scientific research laboratories in Aleppo, the 46th Regiment, and the 80th Air Defense Regiment.
Researcher Rashid Hourani confirmed that the quantity of weapons seized from the “Deterrence of Aggression” room, especially in the 46th Regiment, exceeds the quantities allocated by the room to start the operation, and this is what prompted the opposition to seize control of the largest possible geographical area.
As for the air defense weapons that were seized, researcher Hourani reveals that through his communication with the “Military Operations Department,” he was assured that many officers expressed their willingness to carry out airstrikes using these weapons and shoulder-mounted missiles, in addition to the fact that there are “shooters” courses to train fighters to use these missiles.
A report by the American magazine Newsweek stated that the seizure by opposition forces in northern Syria of advanced military equipment, such as the Russian air defense system "Pantsir-S1", is a major and complex shift in the ongoing conflict, as this weapon will strengthen the opposition with significant defensive capabilities, which will complicate the air operations of the Syrian army, which is a point of strength for it, according to Newsweek.
The factors behind the rapid collapse of the regime forces are not limited to factors related to the opposition in terms of its military and organizational situation, which was evident in the inclusion of all opposition factions participating in the operation (chiefly Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Ahrar al-Sham Movement, and Jaysh al-Izza) in a single operations room since 2019 called the “Al-Fath al-Mubin Operations Room” to coordinate military efforts between the factions in Idlib and the western countryside of Aleppo.
In contrast, the large defection witnessed by the regime forces, in addition to the long years of service of the elements and their poor economic conditions, led to the "flabbiness" of these forces, and the matter was made worse - according to military observers - by the regime's reliance on sectarian militias and military recruitment operations to cover the shortage in its forces on the fronts.
Brigadier General Abdullah Al-Asaad explains that the Syrian regime army has turned into a “militia, and its ideology has become the ideology of the militias that used to operate on Syrian soil, and whose concern was and still is to secure their own interests and gains through theft, looting, and imposing taxes on civilians.”
Al-Asaad continues his talk by saying that the ideological state of this army has changed. Instead of its mission being to defend the homeland and protect its people from internal and external attacks and threats, it “has turned into a militia in the hands of the regime, which has used it to suppress the Syrian people.”
For his part, researcher Rashid Hourani points out that the regime suffers from a major shortage and collapse in human numbers, which appeared through the decrees with which the regime tried to repair the shortage of human cadres within it and announce volunteer contracts in its forces to avoid the shortage in compulsory service resulting from defection, desertion, or failure to serve in the army.
This psychological and ideological state of the regime forces is met, in Al-Hourani’s opinion, by a very high morale and ideological spirit among the opposition forces, resulting from years of ideological preparation on the one hand, and because most of those participating in Operation “Deterrence of the Title” are from the areas from which the regime displaced them, such as Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Homs, and others, which gave them a strong moral and psychological motive to liberate their areas.
In an effort by the Syrian regime to strengthen its military institution and provide its forces at all levels with volunteers to compensate for the human losses its army has suffered over the past years, the Syrian Ministry of Defense has announced several times volunteer contracts in the army’s ranks, the last of which was last September, where the contract was set for a period of 5 and 10 years, and includes entitlements, benefits, and financial rewards. The most prominent factor that led to the rapid collapse of the regime forces was the absence of Russian air cover, which had provided the regime forces with great military superiority since its intervention in the Syrian war in 2015.
Russia's involvement in the Ukrainian war has prompted Moscow to withdraw a large portion of its forces, especially the Air Force, from Syria. This includes Russia's withdrawal of the S-300 air defense battery , which is not as influential in the current fighting as Moscow's directing of elite Russian pilots to Ukraine instead of Syria.
On the other hand, the Israeli targeting of Iranian leaders and cadres in Syria, in addition to the United States’ efforts to limit or end Iranian influence in the region after October 7, 2023, and this was accompanied by the destruction of Hezbollah’s military capabilities in Lebanon after the Israeli escalation and its being forced to withdraw a large number of its fighters deployed on the Aleppo and Idlib fronts towards Lebanon due to the battles on the southern front; all of this led to a great deal of confusion in the Syrian defenses and created a human and military vacuum that the regime was unable to fill on the fronts.
The surprise insurgency cast serious doubts on the viability of the 2020 ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia and Türkiye. It highlights the deal’s fragility and, as the fighting intensifies, the region’s stability hangs in the balance. International diplomacy’s failure to bring about a lasting resolution in Syria was also evident. UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen’s statement about a “political stalemate” echoes a broader global frustration over lack of progress. Efforts at conflict resolution have been stymied by inertia and competing interests, making permanent peace seem increasingly remote.
Regionally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s attempts to open dialogue with Syrian President Bashar Assad have also stalled. Erdogan has expressed a desire for normalization, which he claims would pave the way for peace in Syria. Yet, no significant steps have been taken toward this goal. Türkiye, which has taken in over three million refugees from Syria, faces mounting pressure on both the human-displacement front and in its ongoing conflict with Kurdish groups. Any serious progress toward peace must involve dialogue between Ankara and Damascus – an element still missing from the current strategy.
Türkiye has a growing military presence in Syria, with 12 bases and 114 military sites, including a significant concentration in Aleppo and Idlib. While Iranian forces remain larger in number, Ankara’s military capabilities – particularly in air defense, artillery, and modern communications technology—make it an increasingly influential player in the Syrian conflict.
This shift in power dynamics has allowed Türkiye to bolster its position in Syria, with an ability to control various armed groups under its patronage, though it does not officially acknowledge this. Through its actions, Ankara was consolidating its influence, particularly in Aleppo, where it was positioned to play a central role in the conflict’s future trajectory.
The geopolitical struggle was intensifying. The Syrian conflict and, in particular, the battle for Aleppo reflects the broader struggle for influence between regional powers like Türkiye and Iran. Ankara’s military engagement in Syria was likely to continue to expand, as its influence becomes increasingly critical to the region’s future stability.
Israel’s longstanding concerns about the growing influence of Iran-backed forces near its borders became more urgent as Syria’s internal conflict drags on. In response, the Jewish state has positioned itself as a key player in shaping the regional security landscape, taking a more proactive stance to counter the expansion of Iranian influence. This shift in Israeli strategy aligns with a broader US approach that was likely under the incoming Trump administration, which will prioritize countering Iran and strengthening ties with regional allies like Israel. With a potential re-engagement of a Republican-led administration, Israel’s strategic interests and its close partnership with the US could drive coordinated actions in Syria, influencing both local and foreign actors.
A significant “Ukrainian trace” has been detected among foreign fighters in northwestern Syria, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has claimed. The diplomat cited data available on cooperation between Kiev and the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), including on drones, following a claim Ukraine’s intelligence services likely collaborated with the jihadists.
The Kyiv Post reported that Islamist groups involved in recent attacks in Aleppo province could have been prepared by the ‘Khimik’ Special Forces unit of Ukraine’s military intelligence service (HUR), which allegedly provided “operational training” to militants in Idlib province.
“This is not the first region where the Kiev regime applies its criminal experience,” Zakharova stated, as cited by newspaper Vedomosti, highlighting previous Ukrainian involvement in conflicts across Africa and now, reportedly, in Syria. “Radicals are clearly trying to undermine years of efforts toward stability in this country, posing serious security risks for civilians, particularly in conflict zones,” Zakharova explained. She condemned the use of civilians as human shields, describing it as a disturbing tactic amid the ongoing violence.
Zakharova also suggested that these terrorist acts likely benefit from external support aimed at reigniting conflict in Syria. “We express our solidarity with the leadership and people of Syria in this challenging situation,” she said, reaffirming Moscow’s commitment to the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
An employee of a military company told Sputnik on Wednesday that armed groups in Syria are being trained by Ukrainian trainers and adopting their tactics. “I can confirm that the armed groups in Syria were trained by foreign specialists and trainers,” the specialist, who studies the drone systems of terrorists in Syria, told the Russian RIA Novosti agency. “I was present in the zone of the special military operation (Russia), and I saw how the drones work there. After that, I observed the militants using the same tactics as the Ukrainians.”
He added that he "observed the militants using the same tactics used by the Ukrainians," concluding that "Ukrainian intelligence is present in the Idlib de-escalation zone." He also noted that the militants began using suicide drones at night, which means that they are equipped with night cameras or thermal imaging devices, and this tactic is typical for the Ukrainian military, in the area of ????the special military operation.
Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzia confirmed that terrorists in Syria receive support from the United States and Ukraine, pointing to the role of the Ukrainian General Intelligence Service in organizing terrorist activity in Syria and supplying them with weapons. Nebenzia said in his speech on 03 December 2024, at the UN Security Council meeting on: “The situation in the Middle East (Syria)” in New York: “We condemn the organized attack on Aleppo launched by the terrorists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham who control Idlib,” stressing that “during the attack, more than 400 terrorists were eliminated and 600 others were injured, and the enemy will be defeated no matter how much support is provided to it.”
He continued: "I believe that it is in the interest of Western countries to dispel all doubts, especially in this process, and in this context we want to draw attention to the role of the General Intelligence Service of Ukraine in organizing the activity of terrorists and supplying them with weapons." He added: "We have repeatedly spoken in the Security Council chamber about the presence of Ukrainian military and intelligence advisers who have equipped and trained the forces of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, and there is dealing there between Ukraine and terrorists, whether to recruit terrorists into the ranks of the Ukrainian forces or to fight the Syrians."
He continued: “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham does not hide its support from Ukraine, but rather boasts about it. Ukrainian intelligence agents are arming Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib with drones. Western experts have questioned this information, but what happened on November 26 confirmed the accuracy of our information, and it became clear that Ukraine has turned into a farm for international terrorism, threatening international security and peace, not only through its operations in Russia, but also in Syria.”
The Russian representative to the Security Council stressed that "what happened in recent days in Syria made it clear that the work of the United States, which is present in Syria illegally, aims to destabilize Syria, including the east of the Euphrates and Al-Tanf, and Washington seeks to occupy the areas rich in oil and natural resources in northeastern Syria." He added: "The United States and its allies are seizing every opportunity to sow chaos in the country, to strangle it economically and support terrorists. The Americans are not ashamed to present Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as the moderate opposition, and the organization has shown so-called moderation in recent days."
He stressed that "double standards are unacceptable, and the struggle against organizations classified by the United Nations as terrorist must continue. The legitimate government in Syria must be supported, and terrorist attacks by the Al-Nusra Front must be condemned in the past, as Syria's neighbors did."
Nebenzia stressed that "as history shows, the exploitation of terrorists for political purposes backfires on their masters. We continue our contacts with our partners in the Astana process, and we are in contact with our colleagues in Iran and Turkey, who share our concerns regarding the escalation in Aleppo and Idlib. We agree with them on the need to coordinate efforts to stabilize the situation in Syria." He concluded by saying: “We call for a return to the ceasefire in Idlib dated March 2020, and we are confident that stability on the ground and the return of security and peace in Syria can only be achieved by removing the illegal military presence in Syria and stopping air strikes on Syria.”
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