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Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus

Op Deterrence of Aggression - 27 November 2024

The Military Operations Department of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham", with the support of the "Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room" in Idlib, announced on 27 November 2024 the start of a military operation called "Deterrence of Aggression". For more than a month, before the 22nd round of the Astana talks on a political solution in Syria on November 11 and 12, Tahrir al-Sham had intensified its preparations for a military operation aimed at expanding its control, which was limited to a mountainous strip near the Turkish border in Idlib, to Aleppo province.

This came after the Syrian regime and Iranian militias targeted various civilian areas in northwestern Syria. The military operation began on two axes, the first in the countryside around western city Aleppo the largest city in northern Syria, and the second in the eastern Idlib countryside. On the first axis, the opposition factions took control of about 20 sites, ranging from villages, towns, and military points in the western Aleppo countryside, most notably the “46th Regiment,” which was an important military site and a main line of defense for the city of Aleppo, which was now about 10 kilometers away from the factions.

On 27 November 2024, in just six hours, Syrian rebels advanced to within 7 kilometers of Aleppo’s center, seizing dozens of towns, military bases, weapons depots, and tanks. They also dealt significant losses to Iranian militias in Aleppo’s western countryside during the first day of fighting. HTS began what appeared to be a large-scale offensive from the west in the direction of Aleppo, seizing new territory in the largest escalation in the Syrian civil war since 2020. The initial offensive operations were carried out by rebels from the former Al-Nusra front, one of the factions of the rebel coalition in Syria known as HTS.

Hours after the start of the military operation, Reuters quoted a Turkish security official as confirming that the operations were taking place within the framework of the 2019 de-escalation agreement, which gave the impression that it was implicit support for securing the de-escalation zone and restoring its borders before the 2020 Sochi agreement. The Turkish Foreign Ministry also held the Syrian regime responsible for the escalation, noting that the clashes that erupted in northwestern Syria were caused by the ongoing bombing of the region, but maintaining calm is a priority for Ankara.

Türkiye expressed deep concern over the escalation in Idlib, which contravenes the Turkish-Russian understanding on de-escalation zones in northwestern Syria, known as the “Putin-Erdogan” zone. In contrast, Russia believes that Türkiye has not fulfilled its pledges regarding separating the “moderate” factions from the “extremist groups” in Idlib, according to the understandings between the two sides.

The operation came amid explicit criticism from Ankara of both Russia and Iran regarding the process of normalizing relations with the Syrian government. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said a few days ago that Russia is now neutral on the normalization file, while Moscow explicitly announced for the first time that Turkey is acting “as an occupying state in Syria, and that its refusal to withdraw its forces is what is obstructing the path of normalization between Ankara and Damascus.”

After launching its “Deterrence of Aggression” operation, Turkey did not issue an official position, nor did it move to pressure Tahrir al-Sham. The only reaction was what a responsible source in the Turkish Ministry of Defense said on Thursday, that Turkey is closely following the recent movements of the opposition factions in northern Syria, and has taken all precautions to ensure the security of Turkish forces there. With the start of the move by Tahrir al-Sham, Türkiye sent huge reinforcements to its forces’ positions in the Euphrates Shield area in Aleppo, in addition to its military points in Idlib.

On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi considered the recent moves by Tahrir al-Sham and the factions supporting it to be an “American-Israeli plot” aimed at disrupting security and stability in the region, following Israel’s failures and defeats at the hands of the resistance. During a phone call with his Lebanese counterpart, Abdullah Bou Habib, on Thursday, regarding the latest developments in the situation in Lebanon after the ceasefire, Araqchi stressed the need to confront the abhorrent phenomenon of terrorism.

SAA (Syrian Arab Army government forces) responded by shelling HTS command and control centres with heavy artillery and rockets. They also targeted supply routes used by the HTS in an attempt to limit their offensive potential. Shortly after the onset of the battles, Syrian and Russian warplanes took off in the direction of the Idlib and Aleppo axes. Syrian warplanes conducted airstrikes on HTS positions in the vicinity of Idlib and Aleppo. Extensive airstrikes continued in the Aleppo and Idlib areas, including cluster shelling on an HTS logistical convoy. There were also reports of SAA reinforcements arriving from Aleppo to the frontlines, ready to defend against further HTS attacks.

Several Syrian anti-Assad and opposition rebel groups who previously opposed Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) in Northwestern Syria came out with statements of support for their ongoing offensive against the city of Aleppo. Even the Syrian Brigade Party, a Druze paramilitary group, called on Druze to defect from pro-Assad forces near aleppo, and for HTS to show mercy to any Druze fighters they capture, as they were likely to have been forcibly conscripted.

SAA (Syrian Arab Army government forces) responded by shelling HTS command and control centres with heavy artillery and rockets. They also targeted supply routes used by the HTS in an attempt to limit their offensive potential. Shortly after the onset of the battles, Syrian and Russian warplanes took off in the direction of the Idlib and Aleppo axes. Syrian warplanes conducted airstrikes on HTS positions in the vicinity of Idlib and Aleppo. Extensive airstrikes continued in the Aleppo and Idlib areas, including cluster shelling on an HTS logistical convoy. There were also reports of SAA reinforcements arriving from Aleppo to the frontlines, ready to defend against further HTS attacks.

Several Syrian anti-Assad and opposition rebel groups who previously opposed Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) in Northwestern Syria came out with statements of support for their ongoing offensive against the city of Aleppo. Even the Syrian Brigade Party, a Druze paramilitary group, called on Druze to defect from pro-Assad forces near aleppo, and for HTS to show mercy to any Druze fighters they capture, as they were likely to have been forcibly conscripted.

In the eastern Idlib countryside, where opposition factions began a military operation on the city of Saraqib, located on the Damascus-Aleppo international road, the Operations Department announced its control over the village of Dadikh and its hill overlooking the international road. The administration confirmed the killing of dozens of Syrian regime forces, and the acquisition of heavy equipment including tanks, armored vehicles, and medium weapons.

On the other hand, the Syrian regime forces and Russian aircraft targeted various areas in northwestern Syria in Sarmin, Idlib, Ariha, Abzmo, Darat Izza, and others. According to the opposition's military operations department, this operation aims to return about one hundred thousand displaced people to their cities and villages controlled by Iranian militias.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights revealed the killing of about 100 members of the Syrian regime forces, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and armed factions in the Aleppo countryside. The Observatory said in a statement that the operation launched by the organization with the support of the "National Army factions" in the Aleppo countryside area resulted in the killing of 44 members of the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham organization and 16 members of the factions.