Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus
Op Deterrence of Aggression - 02 December 2024
The “Deterrence of Aggression” [AR = Rada al-Adwan, also seen as "Deterring Aggression" and "Aggression Shield" ] battle was launched by the Syrian opposition factions against the Syrian regime forces and the militias supporting it to direct a "preemptive strike against the Syrian regime forces".
The director of the Syrian Observatory informed that despite the rebels' attempt to advance and capture Hama as well, the forces of the Assad regime managed to repel them with the help of the Russian-trained 25th Division. Syrian opposition factions have taken control of most of the city of Aleppo and its airport. On the other hand, factions of the "Syrian National Army" supported by Turkey, and also among the opposition to the Assad regime, launched a military operation called "Dawn of Freedom" on Saturday, and joined the fighting in Aleppo.
A US military cargo plane, accompanied by a helicopter, landed at the Al-Omar oil field base in Deir Ezzor, carrying logistical and military equipment to reinforce the “International Coalition” military presence in the region. The “International Coalition” forces targeted sites in the towns of Marat and Khasham, within the scope of the “Seven Villages”, using heavy artillery from their base in the “Conoco” gas field. The “Seven Villages” (Al-Husseiniya, Al-Salihiya, Hatla, Marat, Mazloum, Khasham, and Tabia) are of strategic importance as they are located east of the Euphrates River and constitute a direct point of contact with the areas controlled by the “SDF”, unlike the rest of the areas separated by the river. It is noteworthy that this region had previously witnessed the entry of Russian forces with the aim of reducing Iranian influence there.
International Coalition warplanes targeted sites belonging to Iranian militias in the Badia of Al-Quriyah and Al-Mayadeen in the countryside of Deir Ezzor with heavy machine guns, without any information about human losses so far. A short while ago, the International Coalition forces renewed their artillery shelling from the Conoco factory base on areas controlled by the regime forces and Iranian militias in the seven villages, and targeted the town of Khasham in the countryside of Deir Ezzor with several shells, without any information about human losses so far.
The northern and eastern Hama countryside witnessed a major military escalation, as violent clashes erupted between regime forces and loyalist militias on the one hand, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and allied factions within the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation on the other hand, on the Karnaz axes and the vicinity of Soran after a violent attack by the factions. The clashes were accompanied by air strikes carried out by helicopters and intensive artillery shelling targeting several areas, most notably the city of Morek and the towns adjacent to the fighting axes.
Russian and regime warplanes significantly escalated their attacks in the cities of Aleppo and Idlib, leaving civilian casualties and many wounded. Russian warplanes launched two airstrikes on a group of health facilities, including Idlib University Hospital, Ibn Sina Hospital, the National Hospital, and the Health Directorate in Idlib city. They also launched two airstrikes targeting the “Christian” majority Sulaymaniyah neighborhood in Aleppo city, without any information about human losses.
Director of the Syrian Observatory reported: "Raids on Idlib and its countryside resulted in the death of at least 11 civilians, and yesterday at least 21 civilians were killed, and a raid on the eastern countryside of Aleppo, the Tal Aran area, resulted in the death of 3 people.. The organization is using drones in this battle and targeted the operations room leadership in Jabal Zain al-Abidin.. Today, 200 members of the Popular Mobilization Forces entered through the Al-Bukamal crossing and headed to the Syrian desert, after an appeal from some Shiite sectarians in Al-Safira to the Popular Mobilization Forces to free them from the siege. The Fajr al-Hurriya battle to target the Kurds in the northern countryside of Aleppo, and today the second displacement operation for the Kurds began, and after the appeal yesterday, a corridor was opened for them towards eastern Syria in Raqqa under the protection of the organization after groups from the National Army slaughtered three Kurdish citizens in Tal Rifaat."
The Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad applied for assistance from Israel in the war he is waging against the Syrian rebels, according to a report by the Saudi newspaper "Ilaaf". According to the report, one of Assad's aides who is staying in Europe conveyed the message to the political and security level in Israel. Israel, in response to this message, set its own conditions: the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria. At the moment, it is not known if there are any understandings on the subject.
The IDF spokesman, Brigadier General Daniel Hagari, told the Sky News network in Arabic that Iran is transferring military reinforcements to Syria via air routes. According to him, these are dozens of fighters belonging to Iraqi militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Hagari clarified that Israel is closely following the developments and will take steps to prevent the transfer of Iranian weapons to Syria.
The unusual statement of the IDF spokesman came against the backdrop of a dramatic escalation in the civil war in Syria in the past week between the factions of the Free Syrian Army and the jihadist organizations and the Syrian army, Iran, Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian militias and Russia. Following the escalation, there is a serious fear that Tehran will take advantage of the situation in order to send military forces of the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards to Syria and Lebanon, thereby actually increasing the risk to the State of Israel and disrupting the balance in the north in a significant way.
According to one eport, more than 30,000 Shia Popular Mobilization Forces had crossed into Syria to bolster the Syrian army in its ongoing battles in Aleppo.
Heavy U.S. airstrikes against Iranian and Iranian-backed sites near the town of al-Mayadin in Eastern Syria; with A-10C “Warthog” close-air support attack aircraft and other assets targeted a communication center, barracks, and several other mmlitary sites. Significant casualties were reported, with ambulances and emergency vehicles seen heading to several strike locations. A-10 Warthogs of the U.S. Air Force flew strafing runs against the Iraqi Shia militia columns that entered Syria and were heading toward Damascus to link up with Assad’s forces and fight against Turkish-backed rebels.
The attack by the armed opposition factions under the " Military Operations Department " formed by the "Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room" (established in 2019) exploitedng regional variables resulting from the effects of the war on Gaza and Lebanon, and after sensing upcoming transformations that were preempted to impose new facts on the ground.
The battles generally took place within the de-escalation zone in Idlib and Aleppo, which was created as a result of the Astana process when Moscow and the "guarantor states" (Turkey and Iran) launched an agreement on May 4, 2017, to establish four de-escalation zones, which also included the northern Homs countryside, eastern Ghouta, and the southern region. However, the agreement witnessed several violations, stumbling blocks in its implementation, and disagreements between the two main sponsors, Moscow and Ankara.
The factions that launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression on November 27 included, in addition to Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, the National Liberation Front, which includes factions of the Free Syrian Army in northern Syria, as well as the Syrian Liberation Front, which includes the Free Army, the Falcons of the Levant Brigades, the Damascus Gathering, the factions of the Syrian National Army, the Ahrar al-Sham Movement , and other factions.
There was growing concern within Hayat Tahrir al-Sham about the possibility of a rapprochement or normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria, for which it would be the first to pay the price, which hastened its preemptive military move. All active parties, including Turkey and the armed Syrian opposition, tried to exploit the gray period in the United States and before President Donald Trump officially takes office next January by imposing a new map of control.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham settled its conflict with some other opposing armed organizations with weapons or understandings, and practically became the major force in Idlib. It also withstood repeated demonstrations and protest movements in Idlib, which gave it the momentum to consolidate its presence and move on to achieve other field gains. The armed opposition parties agreed on the necessity of putting an end to the regime army’s violations of the de-escalation zone.
The scenarios generally go in the direction of five possible possibilities:
- A strong counterattack in which Russia and Iran participate effectively, changing the map of control on the ground again in favor of the regime, is a difficult possibility and requires a lot of time and military effort that may not be available.
- The battles will continue and expand, and other fronts will be opened by the armed opposition until the fall of Damascus and then the regime. This is also an unlikely possibility due to the lack of military and political conditions and the difficulty of Russia accepting such a scenario, which maintains military and political interests (in the Hmeimim and Tartus bases), as well as Iran, which will thus lose a major and vital area for it within the “ Axis of Resistance .”
- Returning to the conditions that followed the revolution in 2011, and the outbreak of protests and confrontations in more than one region within the areas controlled by the regime, it does not seem that the initial indicators point to this scenario either.
- A major political settlement based on the current military and field situation, under Turkish, Russian and Iranian sponsorship, by returning to the previous arrangements of the Astana track, with amendments that take into account field changes, and in which the city of Aleppo may take on a special status.
- Return to the Geneva track , launch direct negotiations between the regime and the opposition forces, and pressure towards implementing Resolution 2254 issued in December 2015.
Analysts believe that the continuation of the fighting will prevail at present, awaiting the maturity of a political solution, most of which is still in the hands of Turkey, Russia and Iran, the "guarantor trio" of the Astana track, which in turn takes into account the field and regional variables, in the absence of significant interest from the United States and Europe, but surprises remain possible.
Turkey turned a blind eye to the armed opposition’s momentum after Russia’s attempts over the past year to hold a summit between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed . This was considered intransigence by the Syrian president, who stipulated the withdrawal of Turkish forces, and thus an attempt by Ankara to gain new cards. The Kurdish issue remained Turkey's biggest concern in Syria, where the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are stationed in the cities of Manbij in the eastern Aleppo countryside and Tal Rifaat in the northern Aleppo countryside near the border strip with Turkey.
The attack in which the armed Syrian opposition factions took control of the entire Idlib province, the city of Aleppo, a large part of its province, and areas in Hama province within four days constitutes a painful blow to Damascus that will draw a new map of influence, but this remains linked to the extent to which the armed opposition forces continue their momentum, the regime absorbs the shock, and develops a counterattack.
In comparison to previous battles, it took the Syrian army about 4 years to regain control of the areas it lost in the city of Aleppo in 2016, parts of the province, and areas of the provinces of Idlib and Hama , at a time when it enjoyed great support from Russia and an effective and strong presence of Hezbollah ( the Radwan Force) and the factions loyal to Iran, while this support seems weak at the present time, which indicates the possibility of the battles continuing for a long time and the difficulty of deciding and recovering what was lost.
The Syrian regime is currently focusing on securing the city of Hama due to its strategic importance, considering that the armed opposition factions’ control over it, and then moving to Homs Governorate, will create a field reality conducive to further penetration, and will worsen the military and then political position of Damascus.
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