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Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus

Op Deterrence of Aggression - 05 December 2024

The “Deterrence of Aggression” [AR = Rada al-Adwan, also seen as "Deterring Aggression" and "Aggression Shield" ] battle was launched by the Syrian opposition factions against the Syrian regime forces and the militias supporting it to direct a "preemptive strike against the Syrian regime forces".

After completing control over Aleppo and Idlib, the opposition continued its advance towards Hama Governorate to control it. The Syrian opposition forces announced entering the city of Hama and taking control of its neighborhoods, coinciding with the Syrian Ministry of Defense announcing its withdrawal from the city. Syrian armed opposition announced the "liberation" of Hama military airport and the control of the police headquarters building in the city. The opposition said it had taken control of Hama Central Prison and released prisoners from it, and that "a number of military and security leaders affiliated with the Assad regime fled the city."

Hama witnessed bloody events in 1982, when President Hafez al-Assad , father of the current president Bashar, crushed an uprising. Human rights organizations estimate that this military campaign led to the deaths of 10,000 to 40,000 people. As a result, the Muslim Brotherhood was banned in Syria and the death penalty was imposed on anyone convicted of belonging to it.

The Popular Mobilization Forces said it had not deployed forces in Syria, and leaders within it said they would only do so on orders from their leaders. The commander of the Syrian opposition military operations, Ahmed al-Sharaa, nicknamed al-Julani, urged Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani - in a video statement - not to allow the Popular Mobilization Forces to intervene in Syria, and warned against escalating tensions in the region. He added, "We urge him to keep Iraq away from entering into a new war with Syria," stressing that the belief that the war will extend to Iraq is an illusion.

The Syrian opposition forces announced that they had completed control over the city of Hama after taking control of more towns and military sites in the northern countryside, while the Syrian Ministry of Defense confirmed that its forces had redeployed outside the city to preserve the lives of civilians and not to involve them in the battles.

The opposition said it had taken control of the Aqirbat area and its surroundings in the eastern Hama countryside. The leader of the Military Operations Department, Hassan Abdul Ghani, said via the X platform: “Our forces entered Hama Central Prison and freed hundreds of wronged prisoners from it.” The opposition forces reached the center of Hama city, and pictures from inside the city showed the opposition forces roaming several neighborhoods in the city and the residents welcoming them.

The armed opposition announced that its forces had entered the neighborhoods of Al-Arbaeen, Al-Mazarib, and Al-Sawaiq in Hama after battles with the Syrian regime forces. In a speech, the commander of the Syrian opposition's military operations department, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, said that opposition fighters have begun entering the city of Hama. Al-Julani added that what he described as the conquest of the city of Hama "is not revenge," as he put it. For his part, the leader of the Military Operations Department, Hassan Abdul Ghani, said via his account on social media, “Hama al-Fida; the criminal Hafez al-Assad entered it with tanks and stole it from its people, and today we entered it with tanks and are returning it to its people.”

In contrast, the Syrian Ministry of Defense announced that its forces had carried out a "redeployment and repositioning" outside the city of Hama "to preserve the lives of the city's civilians and not to involve them in the battles," it said. The ministry said it would continue to "carry out its national duty to restore the areas that terrorist organizations entered," as it put it. The Ministry of Defense statement also mentioned that a number of its soldiers were killed during clashes with what it described as "terrorist organizations that attacked the city of Hama from several axes and in large numbers, using all means and military equipment, and with the help of immersion groups."

The official Syrian news agency (SANA) quoted a military source as saying, "Our air defenses confronted hostile drones in the skies of the capital, Damascus, and shot down two of them." In the Aleppo countryside , the Syrian armed opposition broadcasted images, which it said showed members of the regime forces being taken out by buses from the Al-Waha area in the city of Al-Safira, in the southern Aleppo countryside, to the city of Homs. The opposition added that this happened after the negotiations with them ended, and an agreement was reached to hand over their weapons and move to Homs.

After the Syrian armed opposition took control of large areas in the north of the country, including the entire administrative borders of Aleppo Governorate and its countryside, and large areas of the northern Hama countryside , and announced the start of its incursion into the city of Hama, the security services and some military units in the areas controlled by the government resorted to preparing to include young men who had evaded military service in the ranks of the army.

President Bashar al-Assad issued Decree No. 28 stipulating the addition of 50% to the fixed salaries of military personnel covered by the provisions of the Military Service Law, in what observers see as an attempt to raise the morale of army personnel for fear of defections and in preparation for the fierce battles on the northern front.

Figures close to the Syrian government also announced the formation of armed groups to defend their areas. Those who join them are paid salaries equal to five times the salaries of members of the Syrian army, in addition to giving recruits powers that facilitate their work. While there are conflicting reports about a campaign of arrests in the cities and towns of the Damascus countryside, Hama, Homs and other areas under government control, of those between the ages of 18 and 40 who are not required to serve, and those who have completed their compulsory service for compulsory conscription, which has created a state of panic and fear among the people of these areas.

Pro-Syrian government media denied that any arrests had taken place, stressing that no instructions or directives had been issued by official bodies in this regard. With the heavy deployment of temporary security and military checkpoints affiliated with the government at the entrances to cities and towns and in the main squares in Damascus and its countryside since last Sunday, young men who had evaded reserve or compulsory military service have been confined to their homes for fear of arrest, which has led to the disruption of their interests and businesses.

There is a campaign of arrests of young men who have evaded military service, led by the Fourth Division, affiliated with Maher al-Assad , brother of President Bashar al-Assad , and forces from the military intelligence, with the aim of recruiting them as quickly as possible to reinforce the army forces on the battlefronts with the opposition factions.

While Wassim al-Assad, the leader of a “local armed group” in Latakia province and cousin of the Syrian president, announced on December 1st on his personal Facebook page that “special support and protection groups are being prepared for Latakia province and its countryside to be a backup for the army and forces operating on the battlefronts.”

The recruits of these groups have “external missions under the Military Intelligence Division with a monthly salary of 3 million Syrian pounds ($175) for the fighter,” promising those who join these groups that their situations will be settled, whether they are “deserters or called up for compulsory service” in the army. Wassim al-Assad later posted pictures on his Facebook page showing him alongside a group of militants.

Asaad Mustafa, a former minister in the regime’s government before he joined the revolution after it broke out in 2011, said that controlling Homs (central Syria) would be a decisive turning point in the conflict with the regime, because it is the northern gateway to the capital Damascus. He pointed out that the province has great strategic importance because it is located on the international highway that connects the coastal region to Damascus.

The opposition leader expected that the Syrian coastal region - which includes a stronghold for the regime - would witness movements against it soon, especially after the defeats it suffered, pointing out that the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime is closer than ever, especially since he is suffering and his allies are in a miserable situation, according to his expression.

The Syrian opposition continues its sudden and unprecedented attack in the northwest of the country, where it achieved great progress during the week, gaining most of the city of Aleppo, the country's second largest city and its economic capital, and completed control of the neighboring Idlib province. It also penetrated Hama and took control of important areas and cities in its vicinity before penetrating the city.

Mustafa pointed out that after taking full control of Hama in the coming hours, Homs will be the next stop, and on the road to it from Hama there are some cities and towns in the northern Homs countryside such as Rastan and Talbiseh that will fall quickly, especially since the demonstrations there against the regime and the blocking of roads by the residents have been ongoing for some time, and they are waiting for the opportunity to escape from its control.

Mustafa said that controlling Homs (central Syria) would be a decisive turning point in the conflict with the regime, because it is the northern gateway to the capital Damascus. He pointed out that the province has great strategic importance because it is located on the international highway that connects the coastal region to Damascus.

The opposition leader expected that the Syrian coastal region - which includes a stronghold for the regime - would witness movements against it soon, especially after the defeats it suffered, pointing out that the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime is closer than ever, especially since he is suffering and his allies are in a miserable situation, according to his expression.