Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus
Op Deterrence of Aggression - 07 December 2024
The “Deterrence of Aggression” [AR = Rada al-Adwan, also seen as "Deterring Aggression" and "Aggression Shield" ] battle was launched by the Syrian opposition factions against the Syrian regime forces and the militias supporting it to direct a "preemptive strike against the Syrian regime forces".
Reuters quoted an American official as saying that the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could collapse within 5 to 10 days, and it also quoted Western officials as saying that it could collapse next week. CBS, citing US officials, reported "Iranian forces that were defending Assad have almost completely withdrawn from Syria. We expect Damascus to fall into the hands of the Syrian opposition. It seems that the rule of the Assad family is coming to an end.""
The office of Syrian President Bashar Assad denied reports that the leader had left Syria's capital, Damascus. The presidency condemned what it described as "rumors and false news about [Assad] leaving Damascus." "We confirm that the Syrian president is pursuing his work and national and constitutional tasks from the capital, Damascus," the statement said. It comes after Syrian rebel groups said they had advanced to within 20 kilometers (12 miles) of the country's capital.
Syria's Interior Minister Mohammed al-Rahmoun appeared on state televisio, looking to assure people that the capital Damascus and its surroundings were well protected. "There is a very strong security and military cordon on the far edges of Damascus and its countryside, and no one... can penetrate this defensive line that we, the armed forces, are building," al-Rahmoun said.
According to the Wall Street Journal, both Egyptian and Jordanian officials urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to leave the country and establish a government in exile; with his wife and children having left Damascus for Moscow last week, while his brother-in-law fled to the United Arab Emirates. Assad urged Turkiye to intervene and halt the rebel offensive, while requesting intelligence support and weapons from several countries, including the UAE, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, all of which have been refused.
The Syrian regime denied that Bashar al-Assad had left Syrian territory, saying that he was continuing his work from the capital, Damascus, coinciding with the announcement by opposition fighters that they had surrounded the city. The “ Presidency of the Republic ” page said that Bashar al-Assad is in Damascus, continuing his work and “national and constitutional duties,” denying that he has left or made quick visits to one country or another. She stated that all news, activities and positions related to Bashar al-Assad are issued by the platforms of the “Presidency of the Republic and the Syrian National Media.” She considered that anything else comes within the framework of “rumors and their blatant goals,” and are attempts to mislead and influence the Syrian state and society.
Bashar al-Assad reportedly presented two indirect offers to the United States of America in order to remain in power in Syria, or secure his exit from Syria, coinciding with the arrival of opposition factions to the gates of the capital, Damascus. The first offer, made by Assad to President-elect Donald Trump through the United Arab Emirates, was that Syria would cut all ties with Iranian-backed armed groups, such as Hezbollah, if Western powers would exert their influence to stop the fighting on Syrian soil.
The second offer was for Assad to send a prominent Christian leader to meet with Hungarian President Viktor Orban to convey what he saw as an “existential threat to the Christian minority” in Syria if the “Islamist rebels” were to win. The intention was for Orban to convey this “danger” to his ally Trump. The Christian cleric, the Syriac Orthodox Patriarch, Ignatius Aphrem II, went to Hungary to convey his “concerns,” on December 2.
These two offers are in exchange for Assad’s willingness to reach a deal that allows him to keep the remaining territory controlled by his army, or guarantee his safe passage into exile if necessary, according to what Bloomberg News Agency reported today, Saturday, December 7, citing diplomatic and informed people. The agency considered Assad's initiatives a last attempt to remain in power, and that he is besieged after the opposition factions reached the outskirts of the capital.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump strongly criticized Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for the ongoing chaos in Syria, emphasizing that the United States should avoid involvement in the conflict. In a message posted on his Twitter account, Trump reiterated his stance, declaring, “The U.S. should have nothing to do with the conflict.”
Trump highlighted the recent advances by opposition fighters, stating: “In an unprecedented move, they have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad.” The President-elect also pointed out Russia’s challenges, asserting that their military efforts in Ukraine, which he claimed have resulted in significant losses, have diminished Moscow’s ability to sustain its support for Assad. “Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria.”
Trump criticized the policies of former U.S. President Barack Obama, stating: “This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in.”
Trump concluded with a stark warning: “Syria is a mess, but it is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
The Russian Air Force attempted to target and destroy the al-Rastan bridge between Hama and Homs earlier, for the second day in a row, once again failing to cause any major structural damage to the bridge.
Reuters reported from opposition sources that dozens of Syrian army vehicles had left Homs. It also quoted a senior Syrian army officer as saying that army and security leaders had left the Shayrat military base in the Homs countryside by helicopter to the coast.
Other reports suggested that the city of Homs in western Syria had been captured by rebel forces led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with the remaining defenders either having surrendered or fled towards the south. The Syrian armed opposition announced the complete liberation of the city of Homs. This came shortly after the commander-in-chief of the armed opposition's operations department, Ahmed al-Sharaa - nicknamed Abu Muhammad al-Julani - announced that complete control over Homs was imminent, and he confirmed that the opposition was living the final moments of liberating the city. The road to Damascus is now clear, with Russian and Syrian forces on the coast of Tartus and Latakia cut-off from the rest of Syria. Reports that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) had entered the town of Sayyidah Zaynab only 6 miles to the southeast of Damascus. This area was previously known to be a stronghold of Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed forces in Syria, who all appear to have fled the country.
Residents of the Jaramana area in the Damascus countryside destroyed a statue of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad’s father, amid chants of “Syria is ours and not the Assad family’s. Long live Syria and down with Bashar al-Assad.” The regime forces deployed snipers in towns in Eastern Ghouta, placing them on the roofs of tall buildings, schools and intersections, especially in towns located in the middle of Ghouta, east of Damascus, which indicates that it wants to entrench itself in the area, fearing any military movement in the region. The Operations Room of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) announced that it had taken control of several positions previously held by the Syrian government forces west of Damascus, following a series of strategic withdrawals by the latter. According to the announcement, the government forces began retreating from key checkpoints in Artoz and Mudayfa in the western Damascus countryside. HTS claimed that its forces are advancing rapidly, declaring that soon they will reach the gates of Damascus.
The statement highlighted the collapse of government forces in the towns of Kanaker, Zakyah, and Khan Sheikh in the western Damascus countryside, near the southern region of Daraa. HTS further stated that its forces had entered the city of Sanamayn, north of Daraa, placing them less than 20 kilometers from the southern gate of Damascus. Opposition media reported that HTS also expelled the government forces from the city of al-Qaryatayn, east of Homs, and continues to push forward in the area.
Syrian rebel forces have taken the southern town of Sanamayn and advanced to within 20 kilometers (12 miles) of the capital, Damascus, rebel commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani said. Abdul-Ghani is a commander within the Islamist-led alliance that has launched the ongoing offensive in the country's northwest. Sanamayn, on the main highway from Damascus to Jordan, is situated in southern Daraa province. According to the head of the Britain-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel Rahman, the province is now completely in the hands of local rebel fighters.
"Local factions have taken control of more areas in Daraa province, including Daraa city ... they now control more than 90% of the province, as regime forces successively pulled out," the Observatory said. The developments in Daraa come as an Islamist-led rebel alliance has taken the key cities of Aleppo and Hama in the north and center of the country in what is seen as a major challenge to President Bashar Assad's power. Daraa province, which borders Jordan, was dubbed the "cradle of the revolution" early in Syria's civil war, which erupted in 2012. It was there that activists accused the government of detaining and torturing a group of boys for writing anti-Assad slogans on walls at their school in 2011, leading to anti-regime protests that were brutally repressed. The province has experienced considerable unrest in the past few years despite a truce brokered by Russia, one of Assad's staunchest allies.
As the Syrian army retreated from most of southern Syria, Druze anti-government and local militants took control of government buildings in the towns of Khan Arnabeh and Al-Baath. The militants also claim that the Syrian army forces have withdrawn from all areas of Quneitra province and have taken full control of the areas of the province. However, the Al-Kum region is currently under the control of the Syrian forces, and this afternoon, the militants' advance along the Quneitra-Damascus road was blocked by them.
Quneitra province is located in southwestern Syria, adjacent to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The fall of this region to militants is a new border challenge for Israeli, and Israel could use this as an excuse to enter Syrian territory directly.
In Daraa province, the areas of Deir al-Adas, Jabbab and al-Sanamin have fallen to militants. Russian-Syrian warplanes have carried out several airstrikes on these areas. Clashes have been reported in the Ghabagheb area, which is located on the Daraa-Damascus road, and the militants have stopped in this area.
In Sweida province, the Shahba area has been captured by armed opposition groups in Syria. The militants have moved to Khalkhaleh Airport in the north of Sweida. Khalkhaleh Airport is under the control of Syrian army forces, and local sources claim that the opposition is negotiating and bringing them with them.
The militants who have taken control of the city of Sweida are composed of Druze anti-government and local militants. Since the beginning of the occupation of Sweida until now, they have not supported the terrorist groups Tahrir al-Sham and their allies, but they are with them in opposing Bashar al-Assad and have been working against Damascus towards this goal.
The movements and attacks of the militants based in southern Syria indicate their attention and focus on moving towards Damascus. They are overtaking the Tahrir al-Sham militants in northern Syria to take control of Damascus and overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad. Given the defensive barrier created in the city of Homs, it is more likely that the fighting will reach Damascus from the south, which will double the military pressure on the weak Syrian army.
According to Axios’ Barak Ravid, Israel sent messages to several of the rebel groups operating in Syria over the past few days, including Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), telling them that if they approach the Golan heights in any way that violates the Israel-Syria truce agreement, then they will face military action.
The Israeli military said it was reinforcing its presence in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights near the Syrian border. "In accordance with the assessment of the situation, it was decided to further reinforce forces for defense missions in the Golan Heights area, near the Syrian border," an Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson wrote on Telegram. "The reinforcement of forces will enable the strengthening of defense in the area, and the preparation of forces for various scenarios in the sector," the statement continued.
Politicians trying to find a way out of the escalating situation in Syria are no longer able to keep up with developments on the ground, which are tightening the noose around President Bashar al-Assad , who is no longer in a position to impose dictates, experts said. While some countries were meeting in the Qatari capital, Doha, in search of a political initiative to prevent Syria from falling into the trap of chaos again, the Syrian opposition was approaching entering the capital, Damascus.
While there are conflicting reports about Assad remaining in Damascus, the Syrian opposition fought fierce battles over the past 24 hours in the Homs countryside , and has succeeded in taking control of important points, including the Mamluk checkpoint and the 26th Division command center, according to what Al Jazeera correspondent Omar Al-Hajj confirmed.
With these rapid developments on the ground, it has become clear that politicians are no longer able to keep up with fighters who achieve victories that make them not forced to accept the terms of the defeated, according to Dr. Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies. The discussions taking place in Doha, or those that took place in Iraq, are all taking place between external parties, and they are not all looking for a political solution between the opposition and the regime, but rather looking for the shape of Syria after Assad.
Even the talk by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi about his country's readiness to deal with the Syrian opposition, or the initiatives being talked about or leaked to Western media regarding Assad's acceptance of a new constitution or reaching a certain agreement, are all nothing more than attempts at wasted time, in Maki's opinion.
Therefore, the important question now may be the fate of Assad, who will not be able to impose his conditions on the opposition, which has achieved major victories on the ground, according to Makki, who believes that the Syrian president “may fight and may be killed during the battles after all his allies have abandoned him.”
The same opinion was expressed by military expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna, who said that the battle in Syria has become the driving force behind politics, and that the political meetings taking place can be said to be a foreknowledge of who will ultimately sit at the negotiating table. Hanna pointed out that Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham - which appears to have the upper hand in deciding the battle - "is not recognized internationally or by some parties inside, in addition to the fact that the opposition has not won everything so far and the regime has not lost everything either."
In addition to that, the military expert adds, the capital is the center of gravity of the regime, which has a large force there, headed by the Fourth Division, led by Maher al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad’s brother. Hanna believes that President Assad "may preserve the northern countryside that connects Damascus to the coast in order to negotiate a new constitution that may guarantee him a share in Syria's future." However, the opposition's advance towards the Damascus countryside and its consolidation there will be important - as the military expert says - because it will separate the capital from the coast even if it does not control the entire city of Homs, as the spokesman said.
One Russian observer noted that the collapse of Assad's army in Syria is very similar to, and even surpasses, what was witnessed in Afghanistan during the Taliban offensive and the expulsion of the Americans. The army is falling apart, fleeing, abandoning everything, and in this case, the key question is not Assad's fate, nor the various coordination and reconciliation centers, nor even the flower-laying ceremonies or Yunarmiya concerts on yet another holiday. What truly matters is: what will remain for us? Ten years of our presence, fallen Russian soldiers, billions of rubles spent, and thousands of tons of ammunition-these must somehow, in some way, be compensated. It's clear that Assad himself has done everything possible to bring his country to collapse and his army to disgrace. However, those who have commanded and are commanding in this direction on our behalf must understand their responsibility for everything I just listed. Syria, which during the Special Military Operation (SMO) became a quiet haven and a place where failing military leaders could be tucked away, struck back according to all the rules of war. And it struck where we were vulnerable-a vulnerability that exists only when your enemy prepares for war while you, not only unprepared, don't even want to think about it.
The beginning of the SMO, or rother failures in it, were in many ways tied to the "Syrian experience." 8otto1ion Tactical Groups (8TGs), driving in columns, idling in those columns-these were all from the Syrian playbook. But unlike Syria, a real adversary does not forgive such things. We had to rethink our tactics and strategy. Mony resisted this, blaming the situation and those "damned bloggers" who, sitting on their sofas, dared to criticize generals and question the actions of the former Minister of Defense's deputies (now the "Lefortovo Battalion"). Continuing on this topic, Syria become a quiet haven - without war, without bloggers, with a military cargo cult and all its attributes. Moreover, the contingent in Syria became very small, but still led by generals.
Now, the only thing that can not only brighten this bleak picture but also provide some compensation for the current failure and wasted resources is for us to retain control of the Latakia and Tartus provinces. Control with full factual authority vested in the military and special agencies, excluding various mukhabarat structures as well as Syrian intelligence and bureaucrats. Mobilizing those, primarily Alawites, who can genuinely fight to defend Latakia and won't flee at the sight of militants.
The "Latakian People's Republic" and the "Free Port of Tartus" are the only measures that can save what remains of Syria and (more importantly) secure Russian interests. Unfortunately, planning and preparing for such a development should have happened earlier, and if no such plans existed, it may already be too late. The situation with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) once again demonstrates where and to what end "reconciliations" without the decisive defeat of the enemy can lead.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
