Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus
Op Deterrence of Aggression - 01 December 2024
The “Deterrence of Aggression” [AR = Rada al-Adwan, also seen as "Deterring Aggression" and "Aggression Shield" ] battle was launched by the Syrian opposition factions against the Syrian regime forces and the militias supporting it to direct a "preemptive strike against the Syrian regime forces", and was the first breach of the contact lines between the two parties in Idlib Governorate since the "Turkish-Russian" ceasefire agreement in March 2020. The timing of the opposition's announcement sparked widespread controversy, especially since it came after the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Some welcomed the launch of the military operation, while others expressed surprise and astonishment at its timing.
The insurgents vowed to push all the way into Damascus, but life in the Syrian capital remained normal with no signs of panic. In southeastern Aleppo, however, the main road out of the city was gridlocked as people fled the fighting, and gas stations in the area were short on fuel.
The Turkish-supported Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), which administers liberated areas, underscored the necessity of military action. Prime Minister Eng. Muhammad al-Bashir said: “With the escalation of the criminal regime’s bombing of our people in the liberated areas, we have directed all government agencies to be on alert in anticipation of any emergency, especially with the increasing escalation during the past days.”
The offensive had been prepared for the past six months, the German publication Der Spiegel reporte, citing its sources. According to the publication's sources, the groups presented Turkey with an offensive plan in early October, but Ankara rejected it due to its reluctance to escalate tensions in the region. According to the sources, Assad's demand for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria to normalize Syrian-Turkish relations was the decisive reason why Turkey gave the groups permission to attack.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt both expressed support for the Assad government. Arab leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah II and United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, have also called Assad to express their solidarity.
The Iraqi Prime Minister expressed his readiness to provide support to Syria, linking Syria’s security to Iraq’s national stability. While Iraq officially closed its borders with Syria, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, including the Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades, have signaled their willingness to intervene militarily to prop up Assad’s regime. Iraqi security expert Saad al-Hadithi warned that any such intervention would likely be driven by Tehran, rather than Baghdad, and could destabilize Iraq in the process.
With Iraq signaling potential involvement, there is growing concern that Assad’s calls for assistance could further entangle yet more regional powers in Syria’s conflict. Kazem al-Fartousi, a spokesperson for the brigades, stated that their fighters were prepared to enter Syria, claiming the current conflict is part of an “American-Israeli plan” targeting the resistance axis that unites Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, Iraqi security experts have pointed out that such movements are contingent on decisions from Tehran, raising concerns about deeper Iranian involvement in Syria’s conflict.
The Syrian military rushed reinforcements to the northwest and launched airstrikes in an attempt to push back insurgents who seized the country’s largest city of Aleppo, as Iran pledged to help the government counter the surprise offensive. Iran has been a key political and military ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country's long-running civil war, but it was unclear how Tehran would support Damascus in this latest flareup.
Government troops created a “strong defensive line” in northern Hama, according to Britain-based opposition war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, as they attempted to stall the insurgents' momentum. Meanwhile, jets pounded the cities of Idlib and Aleppo, killing at least 15 people, according to a group that operates in opposition-held areas.
Meanwhile, the Arab League issued a statement expressing concern over Syria’s “deteriorating situation” and urging respect for the country’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The league’s comments reflect the broader regional unease about the conflict’s growing complexity and its implications for Middle Eastern stability.
The director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdul Rahman, confirmed that "there is a strong resistance to the advance of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in Alawite and Christian areas in the Hama countryside." He also pointed out that "the heavy Russian air strikes stopped the advance of the factions in the Hama countryside," after about 16 towns fell into their hands. He also believed that Damascus would not allow the city of Hama to fall, adding that "the regime will send additional military reinforcements to the region."
Channels linked to the elite 4th Armoured Division of the Syrian Army, which is led by Maher al-Assad, the Brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, are reporting some kind of Military Operation in the Capital of Damascus. Official Channels are claiming that fighting is ongoing against “Terror Cells” that have been discovered within the City, while others are claiming that the 4th Division has launched a Coup against the Assad Regime.
The Shizzle reported that Maher, as the younger brother of President Bashar al-Assad, has long been a key figure in Syria’s military and political structure, commanding one of the Syrian Arab Army’s most powerful and loyal divisions. Since taking command of the 4th Division in the early 2000s, Maher has significantly expanded his influence within the military, leveraging the division’s size, operational autonomy, and strategic importance.
The 4th Armoured Division had played a critical role in maintaining Assad’s control over Syria, including its decisive participation in battles like those in Aleppo and southern Syria, where it has acted as a bulwark against opposition forces. The division has earned a reputation for both its military effectiveness and its loyalty to the Assad family, with Maher nurturing close ties to key figures, including commanders within the Syrian military and external actors like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The division is also integral to the regime’s control over critical infrastructure in Syria, including the oil fields in Deir ez-Zor and its coordination with Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias.
The claim that the division is targeting "terror cells" could be a cover for consolidating power or eliminating political rivals within the military, especially as tensions rise between the Assad family and various factions, including local Syrian militias and Russia-aligned forces. That division is called the "captagon" division in Turkiye. Yes they are very elite, they also have resources, sell captagon, also have energy because they only fight while high on captagon.
But the Syrian Observatory confirmed that "there is no coup within the military divisions and brigades of the Syrian Armed Forces, as was previously rumored." As for the Syrian Democratic Forces, he explained that there are no direct confrontations between Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the SDF militants.
The UN Special Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, warned on 01 December 2024 that the current fighting "has serious consequences for regional and international peace." "What we see today in Syria is an indication of a collective failure to implement what has been necessary for years: a genuine political process to implement Security Council Resolution 2254 ," issued in 2015, he said in a statement.
These UN warnings came after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or what was previously called Jabhat al-Nusra, and armed factions took complete control of the city of Aleppo, cut off the Aleppo-Damascus road, or what is known as the M5, and seized the Kuweires airport in the Aleppo countryside, in addition to other military sites on the outskirts of the city, most notably the Menagh military base. These factions also announced their complete control over Idlib and dozens of villages in the Hama countryside, vowing to advance further.
In contrast, the Syrian army confirmed that it launched air strikes on the positions of those factions in Idlib, adding that it had sent more military reinforcements towards Hama. It also vowed to defeat all factions from the areas they had seized in Hama.
Russia and Iran expressed their concern about these developments, as well as Türkiye, which confirmed that it had nothing to do with the attack on Aleppo.
It is noteworthy that Resolution 2254 called for launching the political process in Syria in order to resolve years of war, through the United Nations, and to establish a credible authority and government within 6 months that includes all parties and is not based on sectarianism. It called on the parties to immediately allow humanitarian agencies rapid, safe and unhindered access to all parts of Syria, to allow immediate and humanitarian assistance to reach all those in need, particularly in all besieged and hard-to-reach areas, and to release anyone arbitrarily detained, especially women and children.
The rebels also made it into Tel Rifaat, a town near Aleppo held by US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces, according to pro-government pan-Arab Al Mayadeen TV. Tel Rifaat is far from the large swaths of northeastern Syria that are controlled by the Kurdish troops, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces. A statement from the insurgency called on the SDF to leave the areas near Aleppo that they hold and retreat to their bastions in the northeast.
Department of Military Operations stated "In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful: To all SDF fighting units in the city of Aleppo General Command. We are fighting the criminal Assad regime and keeping the Iranian militias away from our cities and villages in a way that ensures the safety of our people and their safe return. We offer you to leave the city of Aleppo with your weapons towards northeastern Syria safely. We affirm to our Kurdish people in Sheikh Maqsoud and the rest of the towns in the city of Aleppo that you are our people and you have what we have and you have what we owe, and we are responsible for protecting you and securing a decent life for you."
SDF in Sheikh Maqsoud has accepted HTS offer for safe passage towards Raqqa. According to opposition channels, Armored Vehicles and Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are massing in the Raqqa Governorate and near the City of Deir ez-Zor to the East; with some believing that they are preparing to launch an Offensive against Pro-Assad Regime and Iranian-Backed Forces along the Euphrates River. But other srouces report the SDF officially denied the reports of withdrawal from Aleppo.
Despite being at odds politically with the Syrian government, the Kurdish-led administration has opposed the insurgency and accused Turkey, the main back of Syrian opposition groups, of trying to displace the Kurdish population. Turkish officials have said a limited offensive by the rebels was planned to stop government attacks on opposition-held areas in recent weeks, but it expanded as government forces began to retreat.
The Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) released that the Syrian blitz offensive caused some significant Russian losses. "After three days of successful offensive actions by pro-Turkish forces in Syria, Russian troops suffered significant losses, some units of the Russian state are surrounded. Hundreds of Russians are listed as missing in Syria."
At the Abu-ed-Duhur airbase of the Syrian Air Force, the Syrians left the militants T-72 and T-55 tanks , BTR-80 , MLRS "Grad", 130-mm gun M-46 and another ZSU-23-4 "Shilka" , almost exactly like in Kweiris. In this case, at least some of the abandoned equipment may be faulty. Thus, the T-55 was clearly towed with the help of the T-72, the KPVT was removed from the BTR-80, and one barrel is missing from the "Shilka".
In addition to the Pantsir , the Syrians abandoned their L-39ZA , used as light attack aircraft, a supply of bombs for them, and also the Shilka on Kveiris . Now the militants have their own Air Force and Air Defense, and the Syrian Air Force has lost many aircraft. Even if all this is not used against the Syrian army itself, it will simply be burned on the ground. A major circus, instead of flying away on a plane, they abandoned it and ran away on foot.
Earlier the Russian commander of the Russian army, General Kisel, in Syria got sacked and will be replaced: "General Alexander Chaiko, who commanded a group of Russian troops in Syria in 2017-2019, has already arrived on the territory of the Arab country. The commander of the Russian Navy, Admiral Alexander Moiseyev, also appeared at the naval base in the city of Tartus."
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