Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus
Op Deterrence of Aggression - 07 December 2024
The “Deterrence of Aggression” [AR = Rada al-Adwan, also seen as "Deterring Aggression" and "Aggression Shield" ] battle was launched by the Syrian opposition factions against the Syrian regime forces and the militias supporting it to direct a "preemptive strike against the Syrian regime forces".
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaida affiliate, said in an interview with CNN that his goal was to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In his first sit-down media interview in years, at an undisclosed location in Syria, he spoke about plans to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.” Speaking to CNN, Golani claimed he intended to rebuild Syria and repatriate refugees who fled to Lebanon and Turkey during the decade-long civil war.
Jolani said he had gone through episodes of transformation through the years. “A person in their twenties will have a different personality than someone in their thirties or forties, and certainly someone in their fifties. This is human nature.” In a sign of his attempted rebranding, he also publicly used his real name for the first time – Ahmed al-Sharaa – instead of the nom de guerre by which he is widely known.
The rapid collapse of Assad's forces came as a surprise to all observers, as the battles of the Syrian revolution had never been decided so quickly, which raises questions about the opposition's ability to tighten control and retain these large areas of land that it had acquired all at once.
Syria seemed to be on the verge of a major change in the balance of power that it has not witnessed since 2011. The rapid advance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters, with the assistance of other armed factions, from Aleppo in the north towards the capital Damascus in the south, passing through Hama yesterday, and perhaps Homs now, is already threatening to radically change the map of control and influence in the country, a map that has been almost fixed since 2020. It is clear that the expansion of armed factions in large parts of Syria will have major repercussions on the Syrian interior, especially since their declared goal is to overthrow the regime.
Homs has a larger population of Alawis than Hama, but HTS has reportedly offered assurances that minorities in Syria will not be harmed. The city is effectively a gateway to Syria’s capital, Damascus, as well as to the coastal provinces of Tartous and Latakia, which are Alawi heartlands and where Russian naval and air bases are located. If Homs falls to the opposition, then opposition fighters are likely to push on to try to take Damascus.
As long as the Fargales-Shairat-Hasiya-Al-Qusayr line in the northern and southern half of Homs, the headquarters of the 12th Brigade and the 9th Armored Division in Al-Sanamin, and the southern defense line of Damascus in Sa'sa, Kanaker, Ghabagh, Al-Kiswah, and Qatna are in the hands of the Assad regime, it was too early to talk about the final victory of the opposition.
Regime forces started to withdraw several military unites from different areas in Deir Ezzor to Damascus. The withdrawals were concentrated in positions in the cities of Deir Ezzor, Al-Bokamal and Al-Mayadeen and Al-Quriyah area and other positions in areas stretching along Euphrates river in Al-Bokamal countryside. According to SOHR sources, those movements coincided with the arrival of military reinforcement of tens of Syrian militiamen of Iranian-backed militias, mainly the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and other affiliated militias, in Al-Bokamal city, which is a major strategic site on the Syria-Iraq border.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad arrived in the Iranian capital Tehran on an official visit aimed at discussing military developments in Syria. The visit is expected to include high-level meetings with Iranian officials to enhance military and strategic cooperation between the two countries, in light of current regional challenges.
The Syrian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the army has not withdrawn from the vicinity of the city of Homs and its countryside. The ministry said in a statement: There is no truth to the news circulated by some media outlets and pages affiliated with armed organizations about any withdrawal of any units of our armed forces present in the vicinity of the city of Homs and its countryside. The ministry confirmed that the armed forces are fully prepared and ready to carry out their duties and confront any armed attack.
The Syrian Arab Army Command issued a statement warning the separatist Kurdish units against carrying out any attacks on its forces deployed in the Deir Ezzor region. The command stressed that any escalation of this kind will be met with a firm response that may include air strikes, stressing the importance of not being drawn into terrorist military operations in Idlib and working to avoid any tension that may lead to destabilizing security.
Syrian Armed Forces were attacked by militants from armed groups in the Syrian province of Latakia, the Al Watan newspaper reported. According to the publication, the attack was plotted by terrorists of the Turkistan Islamic Party (banned in Russia) and groups cooperating with it. The newspaper provided no additional details on the ongoing operation.
Terrorism will spread into Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq if terrorist groups in Syria are not exterminated immediately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. "These terrorists will not just stop with Syria. This threat hangs over the entire region and will spread to other countries, such as Jordan, Turkey, Iraq. Terrorism must be nipped in the bud, otherwise it will spread to adjacent territories. If we want to defend our security, we must defend our neighbors from terrorism," his press service quoted him as saying at a joint news conference with his Syrian and Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad.
According to Araghchi, "anyone who ignores the role of the Zionist regime in the Syrian crisis is making a mistake." He said that the current outbreak of terrorist activities in Syria is a result of an "American-Israeli plot" and called for holding any "countries that keep silent or support these terrorist attacks" accountable.
Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that there is an international duty to fight terrorism in Syria, while he indicated that Iraqi-Iranian relations are proceeding optimally, and "we have taken a decision to continue our activities jointly regarding Syria." "There is an international duty to fight terrorism in Syria," Araqchi said in a joint press conference with his Syrian and Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad. Araqchi said that he held important meetings with the presidencies in Iraq, in which he talked about relations between the two countries and the situation in Syria.
The Iranian Foreign Minister confirmed that "our relations with Iraq are proceeding optimally, and we have taken a decision to continue our joint activities regarding Syria." Araghchi continued, "Today's tripartite meeting contains three messages, the first of which is to support Syria, its government and people, against the armed groups," noting that "whoever wants to ignore the Zionist entity's interference in this situation in Syria is mistaken."
Araghchi explained: "We announced our support for Syria and we will continue this support with all our weight," noting that "the armed threats in Syria will not be limited to it only, but will extend to neighboring countries if they do not fight." Araghchi said, "Terrorism knows no borders and militants must be fought in their infancy. Terrorism should not be discriminated against." He stressed that "there is an international duty to fight the militants in Syria, and the countries that distinguish themselves in confronting the militants are responsible for this situation." He concluded by saying: "The international community must support the region's efforts against militants, especially those in Syria."
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein also stressed that Syria's security is linked to the security of the region, while he indicated that Iraq will call for an urgent meeting of the Arab League at the ministerial level to discuss the dangerous situation in Syria. Hussein said, "We met today and discussed the situation in Syria in detail and its consequences on neighboring countries, especially Iraq," stressing that "Syria's security is linked to the security of the region."
He added, "The attacks on Syria by 'armed organizations' are condemned wherever they are," noting that "Iraq was also a victim of the militants." He added, "Iraq's position is clear and the security of Syria and Iraq is linked," stressing "the protection of Iraq's lands and borders and keeping it away from any armed attacks through the Iraqi armed forces in all their forms." Hussein also stressed during the press conference: "Our armed forces are ready to protect the homeland," explaining that "Baghdad will take the initiative to hold a meeting of a number of countries in Baghdad to discuss the dangerous situation in Syria."
A Syrian military source said: There is no truth to the news on the militants’ pages about the army withdrawing from Homs. We confirm that the Syrian Arab Army is present in Homs and its countryside and is deployed on fixed and solid defensive lines. It has been reinforced with additional large forces equipped with various types of equipment and weapons. Our forces are ready to repel any armed attack.
Fighter jets executed several airstrikes, targeting Al-Rastan bridge on Homs-Hama highway linking Homs and Hama cities, as well as attacking positions around the bridge, attempting to cut off the road between Hama and Homs and secure Homs city. Meanwhile, regime forces erected soil barriers on Homs-Hama highway on the road leading to Talbiseh city in the northern countryside of Homs, isolating Homs city from Al-Rastan and Talbiseh cities.
Hayyaat Tahrir Al-Sham and factions operating under the banner of “Deterrence of Aggression” operations room took control of Talbiseh and Al-Rastan cities in the northern countryside of Homs, where several pickup vehicles with heavy machineguns installed over them arrived in the two cities from Hama city, which was captured by factions yesterday, amid complete absence of regime forces. Locals welcomed the rebels and expressed their joy of the factions’ arrival in areas in the northern countryside of Homs.
"Following a situation assessment that has been underway since yesterday at the General Staff and the Northern Command, and in light of developments in the internal fighting in Syria, it was decided to reinforce air and ground forces in the Golan Heights sector," the IDF announced. "IDF forces are deployed in the border area and are on alert and ready according to the various scenarios. The IDF is monitoring the events and is preparing for every scenario in attack and defense, will not allow a threat near Israel's border, and will act to thwart any threat to the citizens of the State of Israel." Kurdish SDF forces, allies of the US military in Syria, have captured the Al-Bukamal border crossing between Syria and Iraq, which is the main smuggling route for weapons and personnel for the pro-Iranian militias.
The Russian Embassy in Syria reminded Russian citizens living in the SAR of the possibility of leaving the country on commercial flights through operating airports. The situation in the country was heating up with each passing hour. According to reports from the field, the militants had already reached the outskirts of Homs. If they took the city and made a dash to the border with Lebanon, the governorates of Tartus and Latakia, where Russian military bases are deployed, will be cut off from the rest of the country. Army and tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces are doing everything possible to slow down the militants' advance, but without support on the ground, this is unlikely to succeed.
v Engineer Mohammed al-Bashir, head of the Syrian Salvation Government , which has been running Idlib for years, pledged that his government would work to provide basic services to the people of Aleppo continuously during the coming period, in light of the long power and water outages, and the high prices of food. "After the liberation of the city of Aleppo, we in the Salvation Government mobilized all our cadres working in institutions, ministries and general directorates, to enter the city of Aleppo to maintain the operation of services and provide them to our people in Aleppo in a sustainable manner, especially basic services such as bread, fuel, gas, health and water pumping."
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