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Syrian "refugees should stay where the hell they are...
No one has worked harder for the human condition than I have, but
they’re not part of the human condition..."
Jerry Lewis
29 December 2015

Syria Revolution

After five years of struggle, the civil war in Syria increasingly resembled the Spanish Civil War of the late 1930s, the bloody struggle that provided a preview of the larger war the came in 1939. In Spain, Fascist forces were backed by Italy and Germany, pitted against leftist forces, some backed by the Soviet Union. The anti-fascist forces were divided into Stalinist, Trotskyite and Anarchist factions, which battled each other as well as the fascists. In Syria, Shia Iran is backing the Alawite [quasi co-religionist] Assad regime, while Sunni monarchies - Saudi Arabia and Qatar - backed some opposition militias. The situation is far more complex, but this framework is a good place to start.

The Syrian armed conflict began in 2011 as a civil uprising against the government of President Bashar al-Assad, inspired by the Arab Spring protests. Since 2012, the conflict became increasingly violent and developed in a full-scale civil war, as armed opposition groups confronted Syrian government forces and began seizing key territories. The rise of Islamist groups and subsequent infighting marked another phase in the conflict that culminated in 2014, with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) conquering large areas in the eastern part of the country and further into Iraq and establishing the so-called ‘Islamic State caliphate’. The creation of the ‘caliphate’ prompted the military intervention of an international US-led coalition against ISIL. Since late 2015, military interventions of other external actors in support of Assad marked the comeback of the Syrian government, which gradually recaptured most territories and consolidated its control.

Five long years passed since the war in Syria started. The toll that this conflict had taken on the Syrian people goes far beyond anything imagined when the uprising began in 2011. As violence escalated year after year, so did the seemingly endless number of innocent men, women and children whose lives were lost to the conflict. The survivors of this brutal war are the maimed, the displaced, the women and girls who endured sexual violence. No corner of the country had been left unscathed. Destruction, rubble and chaos have replaced homes, schools, hospitals and historical monuments. Go where they may, Syrians find no place to shelter.

There were more than five million Syrian refugees. The majority are in neighbouring countries but with rapidly growing numbers in other parts of the world, including almost one million in Europe. For many, as Pope Francis memorably stated, it is “a journey laden with terrible injustices”. It is imperative that host countries find the will and the means to deal adequately with the refugee crisis in a way that guarantees humane treatment and protection rather than reducing people to mere numbers.

The efforts of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Syria and the International Syria Support Group resulted in a cessation of hostilities in March 2016. This led to a significant decrease of armed violence incidents in areas where the cessation of hostilities applies. For the first time since the war started, civilians in large parts of the country feel a return to normalcy in their daily lives.

The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia had shared goals in Syria, as all three wanted the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad to be toppled by rebel forces. On other issues they differ. For example, the US supported Kurdish forces in Syria who scored significant military victories against IS, but Turkey considered them terrorists and is targeting them with airstrikes.

The US sought to rein in its allies Turkey and Saudi Arabia from military action in Syria if a ceasefire failed. Despite mounting regional frustration over Washington’s passive stance on the five-year-old conflict, the Obama administration and other western powers are worried that direct military interventions could lead to an escalation of the conflict and a dangerous clash with Russia.

Washington could perhaps get away with cutting its losses by fudging some kind of apparent face-saving “compromise” with Russia over Syria. Even though Russia and Syria will have emerged vindicated and victorious. But anything short of regime change is an unacceptable defeat for Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Russia, which supported the government of Bashar Assad, saw it as the only regional force capable of defeating IS on the ground, warned against a ground intervention, which, Moscow believed, would only serve to prolong the war in Syria. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military forces to intervene in Syria, one thing cannot be in doubt. Russia had drawn a red line on the American regime-change project in the Middle East.

The High Negotiations Committee (HNC), the Saudi-backed alliance of Syrian opposition groups, said on 04 March 2016 that the "current conditions" of a ceasefire do not allow for peace talks to move forward. "During the ceasefire, there were 90 airstrikes against 50 regions controlled by the moderate opposition," noted Riad Hijab, coordinator of the HCN, during a press conference following talks with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault. "Current conditions in the country are not ripe for a resumption of negotiations," said Hijab. "No aid has entered the besieged areas and detainees have not been released."

Anti-Assad rebel commanders estimated that 80 percent of the ground forces the Assad regime deployed since the Russian bombing campaign was launched in September 2015 did not consist of Syrians but were made up of Hezbollah and Iranian fighters along with Shi’ite volunteers from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The head of the US Central Intelligence Agency said 29 July 2016 that he was not optimistic about the future of Syria remaining one country. John Brennan's comments are a rare public acknowledgement by a senior US official that Syria may not survive a five-year civil war in its current state. "I don't know whether or not Syria can be put back together again," he said at the annual Aspen Security Forum in Colorado. "There’s been so much blood spilled, I don’t know if we’re going to be able to get back to [a unified Syria] in my life time."

In November 2017, the Syrian Army and its allies launched a major offensive that liberated the city of Al-Bukamal from Daesh terrorists. After advancing towards the city from three fronts, pro-government troops, aided by Russian airpower, stormed Al-Bukamal, and continued to advance in the oil-rich province. Although foreign combatants constitute a minority of Syria's coalition of pro-government forces, they were present in large numbers during this particular operation, mainly because the city is situated close to the Syria-Iraq border. Troops from the 4th Armored Division, Republican Guard, and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were active in this front, in addition to militiamen from numerous Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs.)

With Daesh's defeat, pro-government forces will soon turn their attention and resources to Islamist militant groups in other parts of Syria, such as the north-western province of Idlib, which shares a border with Turkey. Ali Velayati, a top aide and foreign policy advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader recently warned that Idlib province would soon be cleared of terrorists. Furthermore, pro-government forces have been deploying reinforcements to northern Syria, in preparation of a large-scale offensive in Hama and Idlib.

By the end of 2018, the conflict was viewed as having shifted decisively in Assad’s favour. Assad was re-elected for a fourth term as President of Syria in the May 2021 elections, which were found to lack any form of credibility. States from the region such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have re-established diplomatic relations with Syria and the country was officially readmitted to the Arab League in May 2023. Multilateral efforts for a political solution to the Syrian conflict have so far yielded no results.

During the course of the war, Syria became the scene for a series of intersecting conflicts involving many internal and international actors Three main campaigns have driven the conflict in Syria: the violence between the Syrian government and opposition forces; the efforts of a US-led coalition to defeat ISIL; and the military operations against Syrian Kurds by Turkish forces. Complex alliances, shifting allegiances, rivalries and conflicting interests between the actors involved continue to affect the balance of power and to foster uncertainty.

The ongoing foreign military presence in Syria and the ceasefire deal between Türkiye and Russia on March 5, 2020 have helped bring about the longest period of calm since the start of Syria’s civil war in 2011. This has essentially frozen the frontlines between local forces and their respective zones of control. However, these factors have also brought the conflict to a dead end, preventing any side from bringing about a decisive settlement of the conflict on the ground. The intensity and diversity of military activities by foreign forces in Syria, the secrecy surrounding them, and with continuous changes in the scale and nature of foreign military deployments in response to the developments on the ground, regionally and internationally: all these factors make the process of tracking and classifying foreign military deployments in Syria highly complex.

Since 2020, the frontlines have remained static while the conflict has changed from large-scale military clashes to localised clashes between armed groups and government forces with a decrease in civilian casualties. Since the March 2020 ceasefire which froze the last major frontline in Idlib governorate, the country has been de facto partitioned into four main areas controlled by different parties to the conflict: the GoS-controlled area (about two thirds of the country), the northeast controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a territory in northern Syria under control of the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the area in the northwest controlled by the rebel group Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS).

By 2022, a total of 306 887 civilians were estimated by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to have been killed since the beginning of the armed conflict. Most other sources estimated the number of fatalities to be at around 500 000 or higher. The conflict has also caused the biggest displacement crisis in the world. According to estimates, it has driven some 5.2 million Syrian refugees out of the country and, as of May 2023, 6.8 million Syrians were living in internal displacement (80 % of whom had been displaced for more than five years), making the country home to the highest number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the world.

A combination of factors, including international economic sanctions, the financial collapse of Lebanon, protracted conflict, hyperinflation, currency devaluation and rising prices, as well as water and fuel shortages have contributed to a further significant worsening of the socio-economic conditions in Syria. The economic situation has also contributed to a rapid deterioration of humanitarian conditions in the country. Over 90 % of the Syrian population were living below the poverty line as of June 2023. About 15.3 million Syrians (of an overall population of 21.7 million) were assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance and around 12.1 million persons faced acute food insecurity in the country. Moreover, the devastating earthquakes of February 2023 resulted in massive damages of infrastructure (e.g. schools) and displacement.

The war in Gaza continued to cast a dark shadow over the wider Middle East region, in particular Syria where a series of strikes and attacks are exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation, the UN Special Envoy for the country said on 25 April 2024. Briefing ambassadors on the Security Council, Geir Pedersen called for a regional de-escalation, starting with an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. In addition to the regional spillover effects, he expressed deep concern over the ongoing conflict within Syria itself. "There are in fact no signs of calm in any of Syria's theaters - only unresolved conflicts, bubbling violence, and sharp flares of hostilities, any of which could be the kindling for a new conflagration," he stated.

From the Syrian geopolitical perspective, Syria constituted the main cornerstone of the Axis of Resistance for several reasons, including its fixed and principled position with regard to “Israel” and Arab rights, most notably the right of the Palestinian Arab people to achieve their basic constants, its location between Iraq and Lebanon as a link in the passage of military aid coming from the head of the axis, Iran and Hezbollah, and its historical embrace of the Palestinian resistance. Therefore, it was a target of conspiracies by Israel, the United States and the West in cooperation with some of the Arab regime in general, for the purpose of changing its position in a way that is in harmony with the Israeli, American and Western vision of the Middle East, but it remained steadfast and did not budge from its principled positions.

Syria was able to absorb those conspiracies and attacks, confront them and thwart them, the last and most severe of which was the intensity of the "Decade of Fire" that entered Syria under the guise of the "Arab Spring", since 2011 and constituted a broad aggression from about a hundred countries through the influx of armed Takfiri groups from the borders of Turkey and Iraq - before getting rid of ISIS - and its sisters and Jordan. The West established two command rooms to manage the conflict inside Syria through the Jordanian room called "MOC", and the second room in Turkey called "MOM". In the face of the aggression and global war against it as a regime and state, both Iran, which still maintains loyalty to Syria, which stood by it during the Iran-Iraq war, and Russia, its historical strategic ally since the time of the Soviet Union, which is looking for a place for itself in the warm waters of the Middle East to prevent the United States and NATO from monopolizing the region.

The Syrian forces were able, together, to defeat the forces of thought and opposition in all areas until they reached Idlib Governorate, so that the fighting stopped there after the signing of the de-escalation agreement, which was the culmination of the Astana meetings and sponsored by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, and was signed on May 4, 2017, where Turkey guaranteed the commitment of the opposition forces, and Russia and Iran guaranteed the commitment of the Syrian state, its army, and the auxiliary forces .

Israeli raids against what it called the Iranian and Hezbollah presence on Syrian territory did not stop, as its leaders and politicians announced repeatedly that they would not allow the presence of Iran, Hezbollah, and the forces allied with Iran on Syrian territory, and that this presence constitutes an existential threat to it, so they launched hundreds of raids on sites in Syria during the past years under the pretext of this presence.