Do not doubt that people are killed and wounded every day.
Reports are constrained by Israeli military censorship, and
the bravado of war reporters, hence their high casuality rate.
Operation Northern Arrows
On 27 November 2024, a ceasefire agreement was signed by Israel, Lebanon, and several mediating countries including the United States. Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire deal, but soon there were questions about the sustainability of the truce, as both sides accused each other of violating the agreement.
There was a clear exchange of attacks between the two sides on 02 December 2024. Hezbollah could have denied that it was them but they did not. They wanted to test Israel. According to the Lebanese government, Israel carried out more than 50 strikes since the agreement. And in response to these "repeated violations," Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli military targets. Israel explained that it targeted Hezbollah militants who were violating the truce, and warned that the militant group's attacks on Monday would be met with a "harsh response."
The truce deal was aimed at stopping the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, but it remains to be seen whether it will successfully be the first step toward peace in the Middle East, as many hope. The agreement lacked a robust enforcement mechanism with concerns about Hezbolla's continued military presence and Israel pre-emptive strike if a violation occurs. Hezbollah supported by Iran may view the ceasefire as a chance to regroup rather than a genuine step toward peace. And similarly, Israel retained the right to act if it perceived threat, raising the risk of renewed escalation.
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem on Friday 29 November 2024 declared a "great victory" against Israel in his first speech since a ceasefire went into effect in Lebanon. In its first statement since the ceasefire announcement, Hezbollah proclaimed “victory” over Israel and says its fighters remain ready to deal with Israeli attacks. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaeihailed a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon while holding the international community responsible for ensuring peace and stability in the Middle East. "Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei welcomes the news of the cessation of the aggression of the Israeli regime against Lebanon and emphasizes the firm support of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the Lebanese government, nation and resistance [forces]," the ministry said on Telegram.
A poll broadcast 27 November 2024 by Israel's Channel 13 showed that a large majority believes that Israel has not defeated the Lebanese Hezbollah , coinciding with the announcement of an agreement between the two parties that ends the open confrontation that has lasted for more than two months. 60.8% of those surveyed believed that Israel did not achieve victory over Hezbollah, while only 25.8% believed that Israel won, and 13.4% were unsure. 44% also supported ending the war in Lebanon, while 37% opposed a settlement with Hezbollah.
The Israeli Security Cabinet approved the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon by an absolute majority of votes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized the need for the ceasefire and said that Israel would respond to any possible resumption of hostilities. Netanyahu announced 26 November 2024 he agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but added if the deal is violated and it attempts to rearm “we will strike”. Israeli forces carried out more air attacks on Lebanon’s capital after killing at least 31 people in 24 hours there. Hezbollah also resumes rocket fire on Israel.
On the same day Netanyahu agreed to end Israel's war in Lebanon, the French government gave him a huge reward by saying it will not necessarily enforce the ICC's arrest warrant against him. This contradicted the initial French reaction to the ICC's decision less than a week ago.
All armed groups in Lebanon – meaning Hezbollah and its allies – would halt operations against Israel. The Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days. Biden said the troops would gradually pull out and civilians on both sides would be able to return home. Lebanon had earlier pushed for Israeli troops to withdraw as quickly as possible within the truce period, Lebanese officials told Reuters. They now expect Israeli troops to withdraw within the first month, the senior Lebanese political source said.
The deal included language that preserved both Lebanon's and Israel's rights to self-defense. Hezbollah fighters will leave their positions in southern Lebanon to move north of the Litani River, which runs about 30 kilometres (20 miles) north of the border with Israel. Their withdrawal will not be public. The group's military facilities "will be dismantled" but it was not immediately clear whether the group would take them apart itself, or whether the fighters would take their weapons with them as they withdrew.
The Lebanese army would deploy troops to south of the Litani to have around 5,000 soldiers there, including at 33 posts along the border with Israel. The deployment is the first challenge – then how to deal with the locals that want to return home, given the risks of unexploded ordnance. More than 1.2 million people had been displaced by Israeli strikes on Lebanon, many of them from south Lebanon. Hezbollah sees the return of the displaced to their homes as a priority.
Tens of thousands displaced from northern Israel are also expected to return home.
One of the sticking points in the final days leading to the ceasefire's conclusion was how it would be monitored. A pre-existing tripartite mechanism between the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), the Lebanese army and the Israeli army would be expanded to include the US and France, with the US chairing the group. Israel would be expected to flag possible breaches to the monitoring mechanism, and France and the US together would determine whether a violation had taken place, an Israeli official and a Western diplomat told Reuters.
A joint statement by Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said France and the US would work together to ensure the deal is applied fully. Israeli officials insisted that the Israeli army would continue to strike Hezbollah if it identified threats to its security, including transfers of weapons and military equipment to the group. US envoy Amos Hochstein, who negotiated the agreement, had given assurances directly to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that Israel could carry out such strikes on Lebanon. Netanyahu said in a televised address after the security cabinet met that Israel would strike Hezbollah if it violated the deal. Israel would use drones to monitor movements on the ground in Lebanon. Lebanese officials say that provision is not in the deal that it agreed, and that it would oppose any violations of its sovereignty.
At the same time, the implementation of the provisions of the agreement on the withdrawal of Hezbollah armed formations from southern Lebanon, etc. by the Lebanese army causes reasonable skepticism among many, considering that formally all this should have happened anyway after the 2006 war.
First, the majority of Hezbollah forces are reservists, including residents of Shiite settlements in the same southern Lebanon, and they often keep various small arms, grenade launchers, mortars, anti-tank missiles, light MLRS, etc. at home or in numerous caches nearby. That is, if there are residents, there will be Hezbollah.
Second, the remaining heavier weapons are located in an extensive system of underground tunnels, which Israel has still not been able to fully identify, which is why Hezbollah continued to successfully launch even operational-tactical missiles and large-caliber rockets, and there is more doubt that Hezbollah will seriously reveal this system of tunnels to anyone.
The war in Lebanon followed nearly a year of limited cross-border exchanges of fire initiated by Hezbollah, which said it was acting in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza after Israel launched its assault there in October 2023. Lebanon says at least 3,768 people have been killed in the country since October 2023, most of them in the last two months. On the Israeli side, the Lebanon hostilities killed at least 82 soldiers and 47 civilians, authorities said.
A top Hamas leader in Lebanon said the Palestinian armed group will support a ceasefire between its Lebanese ally Hezbollah and Israel, despite Hezbollah’s previous promises to stop the fighting in Lebanon only if the war in Gaza ends. “Any announcement of a ceasefire is welcome. Hezbollah has stood by our people and made significant sacrifices,” Osama Hamdan told the Lebanese broadcaster Al Mayadeen. Despite the Ceasefire Agreement, since the morning Hezbollah launched over 80 Rockets, Missiles, and Drones against Northern Israel; with Red Alerts continuing now in the Western Galilee near the City of Acre.
Israel's security cabinet approved a ceasefire deal with Lebanon, a local Israeli Channel 12 reported. The accord was expected to take effect on 27 November 2024. Netanyahu said 26 November 2024 that Hezbollah was no longer the same group “that launched a war against us”, saying Israeli forces set them back decades. e said Israeli forces killed most of the group’s leadership and “destroyed their infrastructure”. Netanyahu also pledged to return families in northern Israel to their homes – a main war objective. “We were able to achieve many of our goals during this war,” he said.
The ceasefire was expected to pave the way for tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return to homes in the north, but Tel Aviv-based political commentator Ori Goldberg told Al Jazeera that they are “unlikely to feel safe” to do so. “They have become absolutely convinced that the only way they can go home is if Hezbollah is destroyed” because that is the message the government has “instilled in them”, he said.
Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned on X that a ceasefire deal would be a “historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah”. Ben-Gvir and other hardliners had previously threatened to bring down the government if it agrees to a truce deal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last major war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, is a major element in the ceasefire deal. It requires Iran-backed Hezbollah to pull back about 30km (18.6 miles) from the Israeli border, behind the Litani River. The Israeli military would withdraw from south Lebanon within 60 days. The Lebanese army would then deploy in the border region, from where Hezbollah has launched most of its air attacks on northern Israel.
As the truce talks continued, Israel ramped up its bombardment on Lebanon, with Israeli warplanes pounding Beirut’s southern suburbs. The Israeli military said one barrage of strikes had hit 20 targets in the city in just 120 seconds. Seven people were killed and 37 others wounded in Israeli attacks on a Beirut building housing displaced people, the National News Agency reported, citing Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health.
Israeli troops reached the Litani River on 26 November 2024, for the first time since the Israel Defense Forces’ withdrawal from Southern Lebanon on 24 May 2000. The forces of the 91st Division continued their searches to clear terrorist sites, weapons and rocket launchers in complicated, built-up and mountainous areas in southern Lebanon from which terrorist plots were taken towards the Israeli settlements in the north. Launchers and anti-tank missiles that were located and destroyed in the area of the Litani River by Golani patrol forces. In the area of the Litani river, the battle team of the Alexandroni brigade, including the reserve forces of the 769th brigade, the Golani patrol and the Sheldag unit raided following intelligence indications of many terrorist infrastructures that were hidden along the route of the complex area.
By 23 November 2024 Lebanon was reportedly willing to accept the ceasefire agreement offered by Israel. The last arguments were over the dispute mechanism and the Israeli right to attack in Lebanon. Israel reserved the right to attack Lebanon, but this will not be in the agreement but instead in a side letter with the USA. Israel will agree to use that right as rarely as possible, preferring to use the dispute resolution mechanism when possible. There will only be certain instances when Israel can attack in Lebanon.
The Lebanese army will enter south Lebanon and be tasked with removing Hezbollah infrastructure there. They will also, for the first time, set up bases near the border. US envoy Amos Hochstein told Israeli officials, "I have given them an ultimatum, and it seems to have worked." However, Lebanon and Hezbollah are waiting for Iran's approval, which has yet to be given. That may be the final piece.
Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to the US proposal for ceasefire with Israel, with 'some comments' on content, - senior Lebanese politician Ali Hassan Kkhalil told Reuters. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to continue to “systematically operate” against Hezbollah even if a ceasefire deal is reached.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated 18 November 2024 "We don't have agreement. If we did, we'd be out announcing it and trumpeting it from the rooftops. But we believe that we're seeing progress and we think both sides, both the Lebanese side and the Israeli side, have indicated a willingness to get this done and to get it done on a short time frame. So we will continue working at this until we can get both sides to sign on the proverbial dotted line."
Iran backs any decision taken by Lebanon in talks to secure a ceasefire with Israel, a senior Iranian official said on Friday 15 November 2024, signalling Tehran wants to see an end to a conflict that has dealt heavy blows to its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. Asked at a news conference whether he had come to Beirut to undermine the US truce plan, Ali Larijani said: “We are not looking to sabotage anything. We are after a solution to the problems.” Larijani added “We support in all circumstances the Lebanese government. Those who are disrupting are Netanyahu and his people.” Larijani stressed “that Iran supports any decision taken by the government, especially resolution 1701”, the statement said.
The US ambassador to Lebanon presented a draft ceasefire proposal to Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who is endorsed by Hezbollah to negotiate. Berri met Ali Larijani on Friday. In a meeting with Larijani, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged support for Lebanon’s position on implementing 1701 and called this a priority, along with halting the “Israeli aggression”, a statement from his office said.
Since 23 September 2024, Israel has escalated its raids, targeting what it says are Hezbollah strongholds in the southern suburbs of Beirut and in southern and eastern Lebanon, before announcing at the end of the same month the start of ground incursions across the border.
Hezbollah relies on the flexible and decentralized defense tactic, whereby it withdraws tactically and then sets up ambushes and mines, and carries out the elements of surprise and attack without there being a need to move its elements from one axis to another. This was what inflicted heavy human and material losses on the occupation army, forcing it to retreat repeatedly and not be able to remain for long in any area it penetrates.
Military expert, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, said 04 November 2024 that Hezbollah had regained its political balance after it regained its tactical and operational balance a few weeks ago at the level of managing the battle with Israel , pointing to the party’s dual employment of the qualitative missile force horizontally and vertically. Al-Duwairi said - in his interview with Al Jazeera - that the Nasr and Aziz units - affiliated with Hezbollah - are responsible for managing the defensive battle efficiently in the area south of the Litani River.
The Litani River extends 170 kilometers from its source in the east to its mouth in the west, and is about 30 kilometers from the Lebanese-Israeli border. The strategic expert explained that this party wanted to reveal the "Imad 5" facility "to present a specific vision regarding the employment of qualitative missiles," which he considered "a translation of restoring balance." On 03 November 2024, Hezbollah 's war media published a video clip showing a missile launch facility called "Imad 5", which included missile launchers and equipment inside an underground military facility.
The military expert pointed out what he called "Hezbollah's dual use of missile power," as it sometimes resorts to direct missile targeting, and sometimes launches missiles in order to serve another military approach. According to Al-Duwairi, Hezbollah resorts to launching missile barrages that coincide with or slightly precede its drones, as the Iron Dome radars pick up the missiles’ signal and focus on them, while the drones penetrate deep into Israel, sometimes reaching 150 kilometers. Hezbollah's drones have become an obsession for the Israeli army, and Al-Duwairi said that the party was focusing on "the evening meal in order to paralyze a wide geographical area of Israel and force about two million people to enter shelters."
Hezbollah has recently begun a horizontal escalation, launching 100 rockets daily, in addition to a vertical escalation through the use of rockets it has never used before, the military expert said. Al-Duwairi added that Hezbollah's qualitative missiles are evident through their range, accuracy, and ability to reach the target, noting that the party has "a bank of targets that is arranged according to priorities in terms of the impact of these targets on the course of the battle and Israel."
According to Al-Duwairi, the party focuses on Israeli military bases and the facilities that serve them, such as technical and military industries and weapons depots, in addition to economic facilities. In recent days, Hezbollah focused on targeting the Glilot base of the 8200 Military Intelligence Unit on the outskirts of Tel Aviv, and the Palmachim Air Base (south of Tel Aviv). It also focuses on the Shraga and Sanat Gen logistics bases north of Acre, along with the Misgav base (northeast of Haifa), the Ramat David base and airport (southeast of Haifa), and the Zevulon military industries base (north of Haifa).
But the military expert adds, "Hezbollah is very cautious, and does not want to go too far in its policy of targeting Haifa versus the southern suburbs of Beirut ," for fear of a corresponding Israeli excess. Al-Duwairi explained that Hezbollah is bombing military targets in return for Israel targeting the party's social infrastructure and incubator. He explains that the party cannot defeat the Israeli army in a conventional war, but "only by its survival and ability to withstand, and by preventing Israel from achieving its goals and deterring it, it is considered victorious in this case."
Military expert Major General Fayez al-Duwairi said 05 November 2024 that the decrease in the number of missiles launched by Hezbollah towards Israeli targets "depends on the vision of the decision-maker and is not linked to capabilities." Al-Duwairi explained - in his interview with Al Jazeera - that the number and type of missiles are taken at the operational level according to an approach set by the political level. He believes that the escalation in launching missiles and drones must be gradual and controlled, and called for the need to wait for the coming days to know the number and type of missiles.
Monday 04 November 2024, witnessed relative calm compared to the previous days, as the Israeli army said that "90 rockets fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon crossed into Israel," while the number was more than 110 rockets in the previous days. He pointed out that the escalation is not related to Hezbollah's missile capabilities, but is subject to the decision-maker's vision. He added that the party is setting "red lines in light of Israel's superiority through the air force, the imbalance of power, and its waging of an asymmetric war."
Accordingly, according to Al-Duwairi, Hezbollah cannot “overuse its qualitative missiles on targets of high strategic value in the social and economic dimensions, for fear of an excessive Israeli response.”According to Israeli estimates and research centers, Hezbollah possesses between 100,000 and 200,000 missiles, ruling out the validity of Israel’s announcement that 80% of Hezbollah’s missiles were destroyed.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said 30 October 2024 Tuesday that Hezbollah now only retains about 20% of the missile and shell capabilities it had before the war. Israel has dealt "painful blows to Hezbollah since the beginning of the war," but at the same time, al-Duwairi says that "it is inconceivable that it was able to destroy 80% of the party's missile capabilities and stockpiles," citing the "Imad 5" facility that the party recently displayed. The military expert concluded that Gaza had set a lesson by continuing the fighting for the 13th consecutive month, "and therefore Hezbollah must have a vision to employ its capabilities to wage a long war in terms of quantity and quality."
A military source said 05 November 2024 that the Israeli army was waiting for instructions from the political level regarding the next phase of the war on the northern front with Hezbollah in Lebanon. He added in a special interview with Alhurra that the instructions that the military forces worked under before the start of the ground invasion were to remove the threat of border infiltration, occupying towns and penetrating military bases, and that he was close to ending it. He added, "The political level requested the creation of a new security reality and the removal of threats in villages, cities and forests near the borders and Israeli towns, or what is called the first line."
He explained that the question currently being asked was either to redeploy and deploy forces in line with the goals that have been achieved or to deepen the military operation inside Lebanese territory in what was called the second line. The source confirmed that the Israeli army was preparing for these two options. American and Israeli officials estimate that reaching a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah group was "close," according to what the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported.
Officials indicated that Israel was "waiting to receive the final version of the agreement, which is being worked on by US envoy Amos Hochstein." The agency added that there was a belief that progress towards an agreement "may be achieved before the US presidential elections", despite the persistence of some gaps in the negotiations. The Authority had previously reported in a previous report that the army "is close to completing the first phase of its ground operations in southern Lebanon, in line with the requirements of the ground operation," noting that "some members of the regular and reserve army forces, who number several thousand fighters, have been demobilized."
The army began planning to redeploy its forces on the Lebanese border, against the backdrop of talks on a ceasefire and reaching a political settlement with the Lebanese government, mediated by the United States. Hochstein and Middle East envoy Brett McGurk have been touring Lebanon and Israel over the past few days to push for a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist group.
Reuters quoted a senior Lebanese political source and a high-ranking diplomat as saying that the United States "asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel" in order to revive stalled talks to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. The two sources said that Hochstein "conveyed the proposal to caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati this week." Both the United States and Lebanon denied the accuracy of the information indicating that Washington had asked Beirut to declare a unilateral ceasefire.
Israel will not agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon until Hezbollah withdraws north of Lebanon's Litani River and allows residents of northern Israel to return to their homes, Defence Minister Israel Katz said on 13 November 2024. Earlier, Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad released new video footage of Israeli hostage Alexander Troufanov in Gaza, the first in several months.
Lebanese officials said on 15 November 2024 that Beirut is studying a US proposal to reach a truce to stop the war between Hezbollah and Israel. US Ambassador to Beirut Lisa Johnson presented Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri with a 13-point plan, which specifically calls for a 60-day truce and the deployment of the army in southern Lebanon on the border with Israel. The official added that Nabih Berri requested a three-day postponement, indicating in the context that Israel has not yet provided a response. The official did not provide details about the proposal, but explained that "if a ceasefire is agreed upon, the United States and France will announce it in a statement."
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper on Friday that he had received an American proposal, and denied that “the proposal includes any kind of freedom of movement for the Israeli army in Lebanon.” He said: "The Americans and others know that it is unacceptable and cannot even be discussed in principle, and that we cannot accept any infringement on our sovereignty." Berri also denied that "the proposal includes the deployment of NATO forces or others in Lebanon."
Berri revealed that the proposal includes a text that is "unacceptable to Lebanon," which is the issue of forming a committee to supervise the implementation of Resolution 1701, which includes a number of Western countries. He said, "There is a discussion currently taking place about the proposed alternative mechanism, and we will not follow it. There is a clear mechanism in place, and there is no objection to activating it." Berri pointed out that "the arrival of US envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon depends on the development and progress of the negotiations."
The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps said 17 November 2024 that the resolute struggle against the Zionist regime shown in Gaza and Lebanon is driven by the IRGC. “The current tough fields in Gaza and Lebanon are among the existential results of the IRGC’s movement,” Major General Hossein Salami said in an address at the IRGC’s Imam Hussein (AS) military academy in Tehran. Praising the people of Gaza for displaying a combination of might, resistance and fortitude, the commander said the IRGC needs people with such qualities. He noted that the results of the IRGC’s policies have become obvious in the fiercest confrontation in history between Islam and the front of heresy, paganism and hypocrisy.
Israel announced 02 December 2024 the start of widespread strikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah rocket attacks against Israel. The ceasefire is hanging by a thread.
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