Hizballah / Hezbollah - Al-Aqsa Flood - 2023-2024
Israeli N12 television reported 24 August 2024 that senior officials in Israel estimated Hezbollah will attack in the coming days. According to the sources, the organization is expected to respond in the coming days in response to the elimination of Fuad Shukar, regardless of the success or failure of the contacts for the kidnapping deal in Cairo. Times of Israel reports Israel believes Hezbollah is expected to respond to the recent assassination of top military commander Fuad Shukr’s assassination “in the coming days,” according to Channel 12 news. The network, which doesn’t cite a source, says Israeli officials assess the Lebanese terror group will attack regardless of the status of the hostage-ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas.
The latest round of escalation in the Middle East followed the death in Tehran of the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian radical movement Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, and the liquidation in Beirut of one of the commanders of the military wing of Hezbollah, Fuad Shokr. Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah blamed Israel for what happened and said they would not leave it unanswered.
Hamas had informed the mediators that they will only accept a complete withdrawal of the Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, including from the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors. The Lebanese member of parliament on behalf of Hezbollah, Ibrahim al-Mousavi, told the Al-Jazeera channel that "the reaction to the assassination of Hezbollah's senior military commander Fouad Shukar will not be 'unclear' or ambiguous, everyone will recognize that it is about this."
An Israeli military analysis stated that Hezbollah's precision missiles are capable of targeting any location in Israel, thanks to their advanced systems, which include course correction systems and warheads with great destructive power. The analysis, published by the Calcalist website of the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, indicated that the Fateh 110 missiles possessed by Hezbollah can fly from the port of Beirut to the port of Eilat in the far south of Israel.
In this context, Professor Zvi Ekstein, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Israel and founder of the Aaron Institute for Economic Policy, warned of the potential economic consequences of a comprehensive war, which could include an escalation in Gaza and tensions with Hezbollah and Iran. According to Eckstein, the current situation threatens economic stability in Israel and requires an emergency response. If a multi-front war breaks out with Iran and Hezbollah, Israel could face missile attacks on Tel Aviv and disruption of port operations, which could lead to a major economic downturn. GDP could fall by 5% or more, and the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise above 80%. Eckstein stressed that the current situation requires preparation for the worst-case scenario, including preparation for the suspension of flights and the disruption of ports.
In light of the psychological warfare that the Israeli home front is experiencing due to the delayed response, and the uncertainty regarding the destination of the missiles and drones that may be launched from Iran and Lebanon, and whether the response will be joint between the multiple fronts or limited to Hezbollah, Israel faces challenges and differences in positions and strategies regarding the effectiveness of the comprehensive war. Israeli analysts' readings addressed the available options to confront the attacks and ways to respond to them, amidst consensus estimates that the gradual escalation and mutual threat to launch attacks - even if limited - portend a comprehensive confrontation, even if it is postponed to this stage.
Readings by military and political analysts and researchers in Iranian and Middle Eastern affairs estimated that Israel has three options:
- The first is to reach an agreement to return the Israeli detainees, and a ceasefire on the Gaza front , which will likely lead to a ceasefire on the northern front with Lebanon.
- The second is to continue the war of attrition with Hezbollah, whose end is not in sight, but the circle of participants is expanding with time. According to the Israeli military intelligence " Aman ", other armed organizations in the Middle East that are mobilizing to participate in the fighting on multiple fronts are drawing this from the state of chaos and the poor strategic situation of Israel.
- Given the complexities of the scene on the northern front with Lebanon, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to stop the war on the Gaza front, Israel has the third option of launching a preemptive strike against Hezbollah. There are also those who are pushing to launch a similar strike against Iran by destroying its nuclear project, which means a devastating war.
In reading these options, the Israeli army reserve colonel: Yom Tov Samia, the former commander of the Gaza Division and the commander of the Southern Command, believes that “there is no strategic thinking in Israel about the nature of the attacks and even how to respond to them.” He expected that Israel would find itself in the future facing a comprehensive war with Lebanon, if it wanted to eliminate strategic threats, saying that "the deterrent state has something to lose," explaining, "In 2006, Israel declared war on Hezbollah, and today, after 10 months of fighting with Hezbollah, the scenario is being repeated. This is a repetition of the mistake. War must be declared on Lebanon, which has something to lose." The same approach was adopted by Benny Sabati, a researcher in Iranian affairs at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, who reviewed in an article in the Maariv newspaper the expected attack by Iran and Hezbollah, and the nature of the Israeli response to it. From the Israeli researcher's point of view, "Iran is not the main threat to Israel," saying, "The real monster is here on the northern border with Lebanon. The Iranians have run out of time. There have been diplomatic efforts and implicit threats towards them, while Israel is better prepared, and therefore the Iranian threat is not as declared." Regarding the threat to Israel, Sabati said that Iran is the distant country, and it is not the main threat, "It is Hezbollah with its quantity of missiles and drones. Israel needs to think about how to completely eliminate these threats in Lebanon and coming from Iran. These threats have existed on the northern front for 45 years." Under the title "Between Gaza and Nuclear", Amos Harel, a military analyst for Haaretz, wrote an article in which he reviewed the threats to Israel from Iran and Hezbollah, the expected attacks, and Israel's options for responding to them, noting that there are considerations for all parties to contain the mutual attacks to avoid a comprehensive war. The military analyst says the Israeli public is taking seriously the threats of Iran and Hezbollah to carry out a missile and drone attack on the home front, in response to the recent assassinations in Beirut and Tehran.
Harel adds, "It is clear that Israel's opponents, as the fighting continues, are making a certain effort to announce their intentions and threats to strike targets deep inside Israel, in the center of the country, its north, and the greater Tel Aviv area." Regarding the nature of the Israeli response to the attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, the military analyst believes that the Israeli counter-warnings reflect the readiness of the air force to bomb distant targets, "which portends a comprehensive war that no party has an interest in breaking out, each for its own considerations, interests and goals." Harel suggested that the Israeli warnings and threats, and what he described as "American appeasement efforts" and its veiled threats, could lead Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and armed groups in Iraq to try to minimize damage to Israeli civilian targets in order to avoid a comprehensive confrontation that gets out of control.
The Axis of Resistance is an informal military and political alliance led by Iran. The alliance's goal is to confront Western interests in the Middle East, particularly those of the United States and Israel. The term "axis of resistance" describes any individual or group willing to fight Iran's wars in exchange for: Funding, Arms, Military training, Intelligence support. The Axis included : Syria, Hezbollah, HAMAS' Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iraqi Shia militias, the Yemeni Houthi movement and other militant groups.
On the morning of October 7, Israel was subjected to an unprecedented rocket attack from the Gaza Strip. After massive shelling, Hamas fighters entered the border areas in the south of the Jewish state. The military wing of Hamas announced Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. In response, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the launch of Operation Iron Swords in the Gaza Strip.
Since the beginning of the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Hezbollah and the Israeli army exchanged blows in the border areas, but have avoided large-scale escalation. However, Israeli authorities do not rule out a worsening of the situation in the north.Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov noted that the incidents on the Lebanese-Israeli border did not mean Hezbollah was entering into a military confrontation; in his words, the parties were observing the “usual rules of the game.” Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin , for his part, stated that the United States does not see the concentration of forces of the Lebanese movement on the border.
The political adviser to the secretary-general of the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement considered the Al-Aqsa Storm operation as a clear indicator of the Zionist regime’s serious weakness. Speaking to Tasnim in Beirut on 10 October 2023, Sayyid Hussein al-Musawi said the military operation that the Palestinian forces in Gaza have launched against Israel laid bare the Zionist regime’s weakness and the “catastrophic defeat” of its army in intelligence activities.
The Israeli army that claimed to be invincible has been humiliated in various military confrontations, such as the battle for the liberation of Lebanon, the 33-Day War in 2006, and the Al-Aqsa Storm operation, he added. Musawi noted that the most recent operation, launched with the purpose of releasing Palestinian prisoners, underlined that the Islamic Ummah is being assisted by God Almighty and will never surrender.
“As Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah has said, Israel is weaker than the spider’s web. Today, we can clearly observe the correctness of his words,” the advisor stated. Musawi finally expressed hope that the Al-Aqsa Storm operation would be a prelude to the eventual victory over Israel, saying the operation proved that normalization of ties with the Zionist regime is tantamount to a bet on a losing horse.
Hezbollah compelled Israel to deploy massive reinforcements on the Lebanon border, boosting the resident Golani brigade to probably 100,000 soldiers or more. It knows that, unlike Hamas – which can only launch rockets, Hezbollah has a realistic possibility of advancing into Israel and holding ground taken. But Hezbollah does not need to attack across the Blue Line demarcating the two countries. By its very existence, it is what militaries call an “army-in-waiting”. Israel must keep its assets in the north to counter, and deter, any potential big push that would be a serious military, and even bigger political, problem for Israel.
The current situation and most possible developments seem to favour Hezbollah. If it just maintains the current low-level engagement, it blocks significant Israeli military assets. It can choose to respond to the continued destruction of Gaza by launching a relatively moderate series of rocket attacks against Israel without significant risk of provoking an Israeli offensive into Lebanon. Coordinated missile attacks against targets that Hamas can reach, say in Tel Aviv, would put the Iron Dome defences under enormous strain. And Hezbollah could also bombard Hamas-safe cities in the north like Haifa or Kiryat Shmona. Such modest levels of escalation would win Hamas popularity in the Arab and Muslim world as the only non-Palestinian force joining the Gaza Palestinians’ fight.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told senior Israeli officials that Hezbollah is “ten times stronger than Hamas,” Israel’s Kan public broadcaster reported. With the IDF looking to keep the war contained to Gaza, Gallant and other officials have issued a mixture of threats and promises to the Lebanese group in a bid to keep its fighters out of the conflict.
"We have no interest in a war in the north. We don't want to escalate the situation," Gallant told reporters last week, adding that if Hezbollah “restrains itself, we will respect that and keep the situation as it is.” The same day, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi warned in a televised statement that war with Hezbollah would “de facto, bring about the destruction of Lebanon.”
Observers of the Israel-HAMAS conflict said Hezbollah appeared to be attempting to draw Israeli forces away from Gaza ahead of an expected land incursion. Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem said 21 October 2023 a second front in the war had already been opened. “We are in the heart of the battle today. We are making achievements through this battle.” While fighting had escalated, it remained geographically confined.
Lebanese Hezbollah, for its part, does not intend to mediate between Israel and Hamas after the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation. The Shiite Islamist movement said that it was "fully prepared" to intervene against Israel in due course, during a demonstration in support of Palestinians in Beirut. “Hezbollah’s first ties with Hamas date back to the 1990s, when leaders of the Palestinian Islamist movement were expelled to an area of southern Lebanon where Hezbollah was present,” said Wassim Nasr, a FRANCE 24 journalist specialized in jihadist movements.
Since this period, Hezbollah has maintained strong ties with Hamas, even if the two organisations have experienced differing points of view – especially during the civil war in Syria in 2011. In recent months, Hezbollah and Hamas are likely to have met in Beirut on multiple occasions with representatives of Islamic Jihad and the Iranian Al-Quds Force – “the Axis of Resistance” in short. Their objective was to “carefully plan the offensive in Israel”, according to French-language newspaper in Lebanon The Orient Le Jour.
Didier Billion, deputy director of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) is more cautious: “I don’t know anything about what was discussed, but it is important to understand that these different groups have an ideological-political proximity and a convergence upon the necessary fight against [Israel].”
The US State Department said top diplomat Blinken spoke with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, noting “growing concern over rising tensions along Lebanon’s southern border”. It said “The secretary reiterated the importance of respecting the interests of the Lebanese people, who would be affected by Lebanon being drawn into the conflict instigated by Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel”. Blinken “expressed his condolences to the families of Lebanese civilians who have tragically lost their lives as a result of the conflict and underscored continued US support for the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces, the sole legitimate guarantors of Lebanon’s stability and territorial integrity”.
Hezbollah increased the frequency and severity of its attacks over the third week of Octpber. On 20 October 2023 alone, it launched between 20 and 30 rockets at military facilities in the Mount Dov area and two rockets at the town of Metula, according to the IDF. Hezbollah fighters also targeted multiple IDF observation posts with anti-tank guided missiles and small arms fire. An Israeli-American soldier was killed and three other Israeli troops wounded in a missile strike near the border, while Hezbollah gunmen seriously wounded an Israeli soldier in a separate assault, the IDF said.
At least six Israeli soldiers, 13 Hezbollah fighters, and five Palestinian militants have been killed along the border since the conflict broke out, according to a tally by the Times of Israel. One Israeli civilian was killed in a Hezbollah attack, while several Lebanese civilians and a Reuters journalist were killed by Israeli shelling.
On 21 October 2023 there were several attacks from Shebaa farms to Al Abad, where the Hezbollah fighters fired anti-tank missiles towards the [Israeli] position. And also close to here, the [Israeli] Hanita position, Hezbollah fighters launched some guided missiles towards the position. On the other side, Israel started using its drones in targeting Hezbollah fighters. We know now that there were four Hezbollah fighters killed today: three in Shebaa when a drone attacked a car, and one in the town of Hula, when an Israeli drone launched a missile towards a car.
The Lebanese Hezbollah movement will regret its decision to get involved in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Haaretz quoted Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant as saying 21 October 2023. "Hezbollah decided to fight and is paying the price. We must be prepared for anything. There are big challenges ahead,” he said.
The New York Times wrote Gallant advocated a preemptive strike against Hezbollah. He called for focusing efforts on the Lebanese movement, as he believes that it poses a greater threat than Hamas . However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vetoed such proposals, and the United States , according to the Times of Israel, privately criticized the idea because such a mistake could lead to a wider war.
France directly called on the Lebanese Hezbollah movement not to contribute to the aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, reports France-Presse. According to the agency, Paris was in direct contact with the movement to avoid escalating the conflict on the Lebanese border with Israel. “We sent messages to Hezbollah... through our ambassador and our services,” French President Emmanuel Macron said.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on 22 October 2023 that there had been an escalation of attacks on Israeli military positions around the northern border by the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus said Hezbollah was "playing a very very dangerous game. They're escalating the situation. We see more and more attacks every day." "Hezbollah... is dragging Lebanon into a war that it will gain nothing from, but stands to lose a lot," Conricus said after pointing out areas where he said the group had been attacking.
Israeli authorities said they had ordered the evacuation of 14 more communities on the country’s northern border with Lebanon as fire exchanges between the Israeli army and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah continue. Hezbollah said six of its fighters were killed in one day, bringing the total of its members’ death toll in the current escalation to 19.
The Russian newspaper Gazeta on 25 October 2023 discussed the possible intervention of the Lebanese Hezbollah in the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and Israel, and said that it would force Tel Aviv to fight on three fronts, which would drain its resources, and force units of the Israeli army to remain on the border with Lebanon for months.
The Russian newspaper quoted the American Vice magazine as saying that Hezbollah could fire thousands of rockets daily into Israeli territory for months on end, which would force many Israeli army units to remain on the border with Lebanon, and prevent them from participating in any invasion of Gaza if there was a need for it . . Gazeta added that Hezbollah is intensifying its attacks on Israeli sites along the border, indicating its readiness to enter into a serious confrontation with Israel for the first time since 2006.
It also reported that an American official stated that Hezbollah is exploiting the “strategic ambiguity” to keep Israel and its allies in a state of preparedness regarding the possibility of its intervention in the fighting after launching a ground operation by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip, adding that the initial attacks are not compared to what Hezbollah can do if it decides to intervene in the conflict completely.
It said that Hezbollah is an integrated military force that possesses 150,000 missiles, which are more effective than the weapons available to the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements . If Hezbollah intervenes fully in the war, it will be able to fire thousands of rockets at Israel daily for months on end.
Gazeta indicated that a source in the Israeli army said that confronting Hezbollah would require a large-scale ground invasion and the occupation of a large part of Lebanon, adding that Israel is currently fighting on one and a half fronts, and this is one of the reasons for the success of the Hamas operation on the seventh of this month, stressing that the invasion The ground attack on Gaza will be long-term, necessitating the acquisition of more forces than Israel uses. However, if the war starts, there is a risk of a major uprising in the West Bank , and if Hezbollah joins the war, the number of open fronts will increase.
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