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fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed

It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies

Operation Northern Arrows - 08 October 2024

By 08 October 2024, IDF troops had carried out dozens of targeted operations near the border in southern Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah combat compounds and weapons that endanger Israeli civilians. Since the beginning of the war, the IDF conducted dozens of targeted operations in areas near the border in southern Lebanon in order to dismantle Hezbollah’s terrorist capabilities and infrastructure that pose a threat to Israeli civilian communities in northern Israel. These operations were conducted in order to dismantle the military capabilities of Hezbollah's Radwan Forces and prevent it from carrying out its October 7th-style ‘Conquer the Galilee’ plan for an invasion into northern Israel. The IDF continues to operate to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities and infrastructure, and push Hezbollah away from the border area in order to enable the residents of the north to return to their homes in safety.

The Israeli army announced that the 146th Division had begun a "limited, targeted ground operation in the western sector of southern Lebanon against Hezbollah targets ."

Military expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi said 08 October 2024 that Israel distributed 4 military divisions spatially along the border with Lebanon, where their types vary between armored divisions, paratroopers, and mechanized infantry. He added that the IDF had mobilized 4 divisions "so that the ground attack would be heavy, but it is moving along the contact areas with Lebanon, only hundreds of meters or several kilometers deep." Al-Duwairi explained that the IDF planned to launch its ground attack in stages, as it "pushed a third of the force from each division, and is waiting to achieve initial successes before pushing the rest of the forces." He added that the occupation wants to "develop ground operations and give them geographical depth to achieve the goals of the first stage, not the final goals, which he said are reaching the Litani River ."

Hezbollah launched the largest missile attack from southern Lebanon on Haifa and its bay with dozens of missiles from areas where the Israeli army is conducting its ground operations, which led to sirens sounding in many areas at the same time. The Israeli army announced that 105 rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards northern Israel, in two waves Some 18 years ago, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated by Israel in late September 2024, threatened the Israeli occupation that the Lebanese resistance's missiles would reach Haifa and beyond. An Israeli army statement said that since the launch of Operation "Arrows of the North" in Beirut, more than 3,000 rockets had been fired from Lebanon towards Israeli populated areas.

Israel had two options, both of which are bitter. The first: to begin evacuating Haifa factories gradually, to prevent a human catastrophe, and here the Lebanese resistance would have succeeded in expanding the area of displacement. The second: silence and receiving the resistance missiles, and betting only on luck so that these sensitive places are not hit, or preparing for a human and environmental disaster in Haifa that will be the natural price paid for Lebanon.

The speech of the Deputy Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, on 08 October 2024, raised questions about the "severing of the link" between Lebanon and Gaza, especially since he did not address the party's condition regarding a truce in the Strip in exchange for a ceasefire with Israel. Hezbollah had always stressed that it will not accept any ceasefire unless there is a truce in Gaza first. Qassem said in a video address that "Hezbollah supports the efforts of Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to reach a ceasefire."

Before this speech, there were indications from other leaders that Hezbollah might change its position. Mahmoud Qamati, a Hezbollah leader, told Iraqi state television on 06 October 2024 that "the group will be ready to start exploring political solutions, and that they will come after stopping the Zionist aggression on Lebanon," without mentioning Gaza.

"Separating the connection between Gaza and Lebanon is a good idea and a positive sign. But it will not make sense until there is a ceasefire," Edward Gabriel, executive director of the American Task Force on Lebanon, said in an interview with Alhurra.

But Radwan Akil, a Lebanese writer and political researcher, pointed out that what Naim Qassem said "is not new." He continued in an interview with Alhurra TV, "Nasrallah mentioned this previously, but the most important thing now is the ceasefire, and talking about anything before that is meaningless." He added: "Lebanon agreed to a three-week truce, but Netanyahu reneged on this agreement, and the Americans did not put the necessary pressure on him to implement it."

"Hamas members are still confident in Hezbollah's position on linking any agreement to a cessation of the war in Gaza," Hamas leader Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters. Reuters quoted an "unnamed" Lebanese government official as saying that "Hezbollah changed its position due to a set of pressures, including the mass exodus of individuals from key electoral districts," where the Shiite group's supporters live in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

In recent days, senior lawmakers from other sects in Lebanon's political scene have called for a resolution to end the fighting that does not tie Lebanon's future to the Gaza war. "We will not link our fate to the fate of Gaza," Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said on 07 October 2024. "The priority is to stop the Israeli attack," Christian politician Suleiman Franjieh, a close ally of Hezbollah, told reporters. He added: "We must emerge united in Lebanon, and the most important thing is that Lebanon emerges victorious."

The Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon prompted some Lebanese politicians to make a new attempt to fill the two-year presidential vacuum, in an attempt to revive the state that is facing paralysis in various aspects of life while groaning under the weight of the escalating conflict.