fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed
It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies
Operation Northern Arrows - 25 Sep 2024
Rabbi Yitzchak Ginsburgh called for the conquest of Lebanon and the settlement of Southern Lebanon in a letter published on 25 September 2024. In excerpts from the letter published in Israeli media, Rabbi Ginsburgh wrote that "the enemy must be struck with full force," quoting a well-known Jewish-ethical principle: "Those who come to kill, can be killed." Ginsburgh is affiliated with the Chabad movement and is currently head of Od Yosef Chai Yeshiva in the West Bank, and is a well-respected kabbalist.
He stated that Lebanon was part of the Land of Israel and was given to the Jewish people by God, citing verses that claimed that the Land of Israel stretched until the Euphrates River. "In our generation, God gives us the ability to receive the gift [of Israel] again, to conquer and settle the land.... Today it is clear that the time has come to conquer the Lebanese territories as well, only in this way can the threat be removed and true peace brought to the entire country. After the conquest and expulsion of the hostile population, a Jewish settlement must be established, thus completing the victory."
The war between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah entered a new phase after Israeli army aircraft launched intensive air strikes over the course of two days on various locations in Lebanon, which were met with intensive operations by Hezbollah. Large areas of Lebanon were subjected to Israeli raids, including the capital Beirut, dozens of villages in the south, the Bekaa, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, the towns of Mays al-Jabal, Aitaroun, Houla, Taybeh, Markaba, Bani Hayyan, Jabal al-Rayhan, the heights of Iqlim al-Tuffah, Bint Jbeil, Hanin, Zawtar, and the Nabatieh region in southern Lebanon, and the areas surrounding the Shaara and Harbata regions and the areas surrounding the towns of Shamstar, Taria, and Bouday in eastern Lebanon.
Over 1,500 Hizbullah personnel lost operational function following the beeper explosion attack last week, as reported this 25 September 2024 by the Reuters news agency. At the same time, it was reported that Hezbollah appointed replacements for some of the senior commanders who were recently eliminated by Israel. A Hezbollah official told Reuters that 1,500 of the organization's operators were "put out of action" following the attacks on pagers and walkie-talkies. Many of those activists who were hit lost their hands or were blinded.
The continuation of Hezbollah's rocket attacks on Israel was possible because the chain of command in the organization continues to work despite the "disruption" that was evident following the blasts of the pagers and walkie-talkies. Three different sources reported that Hezbollah's communication capability is based on a dedicated landline telephone network, which was described as critical to its continued work and operation. It was also reported that many fighters in the terrorist organization carry pagers of older types, and they were not harmed in the attack last week. The same senior security official said that Hezbollah is also prepared in the event that its communications network falls, and its fighters are trained to operate as small, independent units "that are capable of fighting on their own against IDF forces for long periods of time."
According to some estimates, since the beginning of the war, as of 25 September 2024 Hezbollah had lost "tens of percent" of its firepower. The day before, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed to have eliminated 50% of Hezbollah’s missile capabilities. In addition, many activists and senior officials were killed in Israeli attacks. However, the organization still possessed many capabilities. The intelligence wing of the IDF devised a plan to deal with Hezbollah's main threats. That plan dealt with the organization's firepower, its raid capabilities into Israeli territory and the elimination of enior Hezbollah officials.
In the meantime, the IDF raised three divisions to the northern border, which were intended to stop a ground attack by Hezbollah, should the terrorist organization try to carry out one. However, most of Hezbollah's Radwan force went up beyond the Litani River and is not in southern Lebanon, therefore Hezbollah's ability to carry out an invasion The ground is limited. It is possible that the assassination of Hizbullah's chief of staff, Akil, was carried out due to fears that Hizbullah officials were planning an invasion of Israel.
Israel reserved for itself the possibility of ground action in Lebanon. The units in the north conducted exercises that simulate ground action. The same action, if carried out, will harm Hezbollah operatives who fire anti-tank missiles at the settlements of the fence, which are more difficult to hit from the air.
About 280 terrorist targets had been attacked in Lebanon since this morning, the IDF spokesman informed. Among them are the launchers from which the attacks were carried out on Safed, Nahariya and the Emekim earlier today. Also IDF warehouses, terrorists. Terrorist infrastructure and ready-to-launch launchers were attacked. "We will continue the effort to damage and degrade Hezbollah's military capabilities and infrastructure," an IDF spokesperson said.
The IDF spokesman informed that as of this morning fighter jets attacked 60 terrorist targets of the intelligence headquarters of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, under the direction of the intelligence wing. The strikes destroyed collection means, command posts and other infrastructures that are used by the enemy to create the intelligence picture.
Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi sent a message to Hezbollah. "You can hear the planes up here, we are attacking all day," he told the fighters in an exercise held by the Northern Command. "Both to prepare the area for the possibility of your entry, and also to continue to strike in Hezbollah". According to Halevi, "Hezbollah today expanded its circle of fire, and in the future, it will receive a very strong response. And you will prepare. Today we will continue, we will not stop, we will continue to attack and continue to harm them everywhere. The goal is a very clear goal to return the residents of the north to their homes with confidence".
"In order to do this, we are preparing a maneuver," the Chief of Staff explained to the fighters. ours and carry out an attack." Halevi continued: "Your entry there with strength, the meeting with Hezbollah operatives there, who will see what it is like to meet a professional, highly skilled fighting force with experience in combat. You come much stronger than them, much more experienced than them, go in, destroy the enemy there, leave sharp to destroy infrastructure".
Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visited an exercise of the 7th Brigade in the Northern Command: "You can hear the planes up here, we attack all day. Both to prepare the area for the possibility of your entry, and also to continue harming Hezbollah. Hezbollah today expanded its circle of fire, later in the day, it will receive a very strong response. You will prepare." "Today we will continue, we are not stopping, we continue to attack and continue to hurt them everywhere" Halevi emphasized to the fighters. "The goal is a very clear goal - to return the residents of the north to a safe situation. To do this, we are preparing the course of the maneuver, and the meaning is that your military shoes, the maneuver boots, enter the enemy's territory."
The Commander of the Northern Command Major General Uri Gordin visited the same exercise, he examined the readiness of the fighters and held an operational situation assessment with them. During the visit, the general emphasized the importance of the preparation and readiness of the forces, in order to change the security situation and return the residents of the north back to their homes. "We have entered another phase of the campaign and we are in the 'Northern Arrows' operation. The operation began with a very significant damage to Hezbollah's capabilities, with an emphasis on fire capabilities, and a very significant damage to the organization's commanders," said the commander of the Northern Command. "We need to be very strongly prepared to enter the maneuver and into action."
The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq accepted responsibility for launching drones at a "vital target" in Eilat. 20:47 - IDF: 2 UAVs arrived from the east of the city of Eilat, a Navy missile ship intercepted one of them. According to various reports, this is a UAV that came from Iraq. The IDF spokeswoman said: "Following the alerts that were activated in the area of ??the city of Eilat, two unmanned aircraft were detected coming from the east. A Navy missile ship of the type 'Saar 5' intercepted an aircraft One unmanned and the fall of another unmanned aircraft was detected in the area of the city of Eilat.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: "We are dealing blows to Hezbollah that he did not imagine... I cannot detail everything we are doing, but I can tell you one thing: we are determined to return our residents in the north safely to their homes," said Ra M and added: "We are inflicting blows on Hezbollah that he did not imagine. We do it with power, we do it with guile. I promise you one thing - we will not rest until they return home."
Commander of the Ramon base, Lt. Col. Nadav Bar: "Every barrel that is aimed at Israeli citizens and every IDF warehouse will become a target," said the base commander and added: "The mission is not over and we have many more tools that we have not used. The Air Force continues the IDF's most powerful attack in Lebanon since the beginning of the fighting."
American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken referred to the expansion of the campaign in Lebanon and said that "the danger of regional escalation is immediate." According to Blinken, the US continues to promote diplomatic measures that will prevent an all-out war. The US Secretary of State also added that efforts continue to promote a cease-fire deal in Gaza, and to return the abductees from captivity.
According to some sources familiar with the details, a new US initiative may include the release of hostages and that the details are being discussed on the sidelines of the General Assembly in New York. Assessment of an official in Lebanon: Hezbollah is "open to any arrangement" in Gaza and Lebanon. "If a package deal is not presented, it will be impossible to get an agreement and the war will not stop," said another Lebanese official.
Sky News in Arabic reported: The initiative of the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Navia Berri includes the reduction of escalation and the draft document includes a ceasefire for 4 weeks. The American envoy Hochstein will lead the negotiations to reach a comprehensive agreement between Lebanon and Israel. It was also reported that the document of the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabia Berri, is based on reaching a formula that is acceptable to all parties, for the implementation of Resolution 1701.
The opinions of Israeli experts and researchers - including former military officials - differed regarding the effectiveness of any expected ground operation in southern Lebanon , and the possibility of separating the support front in Lebanon from the Gaza Strip .
The former commander of the Israeli air defense system, Major General (res.) Ran Kochav, says, “The battle cannot be decided from the air, although it is certainly possible to eliminate Hezbollah’s military capabilities and convince its Secretary-General to withdraw to the north of the Litani River .”
In turn, the former commander of the Israeli army's ground forces, Major General (res.) Guy Tzur, said that "defeating Hezbollah and severing Lebanon's connection to Gaza by force will be possible after carrying out a ground operation deep inside Lebanon and striking all of the party's capabilities."
In the same context, Ron Ben-Yishai, military affairs analyst for the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, said that a ground force could occupy an area and make it a bargaining area. "The ground force can also eliminate all of Hezbollah's military capabilities, but that would take a long time," he added.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, went in the same direction, saying, “In order to defeat Hezbollah, we must embark on a complex ground operation, which may be relatively longer than we would like.”
On the other hand, the former head of the Israeli army's planning division, Nimrod Sheffer, seemed unsure that the ground force would push Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah to agree to Israel's terms for stopping the war. "Israel must use all its power, not just its air power," Sheffer added, before asking, "What power should be used so that Nasrallah accepts Israel's conditions to end the fighting?"
In the same context, former Israeli army spokesman Ronen Manelis described Israel's idea of ??gradual escalation against Hezbollah to sever the connection between Gaza and Lebanon as empty. According to Manelis, Israel lacks two elements: modesty and realism, despite the great achievements it has made. He believes that the only way to sever the connection between the two sides is through a political process.
For his part, the former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Division, Amos Yadlin, said that Israel's move on the northern front aims to end the war from the north and sever the connection between Hezbollah and the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) , Yahya Sinwar . Yadlin added, "When Sinwar realizes that Hezbollah is out of the equation, that the Houthis and the Iraqis are helpless, and that the Iranians are out of the equation, there may be an opportunity to end the war from north to south."
In turn, former head of the Israeli National Security Council, Eyal Hulata, doubted the attempt to separate the arenas at the current moment in time, saying that it "cannot succeed," noting that the settlement would be joint, including a deal to return the prisoners held in Gaza.
Two military experts agreed that the current situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border is witnessing a noticeable escalation with Hezbollah targeting specific Israeli military sites, stressing at the same time that neither party currently wants a comprehensive ground war. Despite the ongoing escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border, military and strategic expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna believes that the current reality is completely different from the 2006 war.
He pointed to several factors, including the current war in Gaza, and the change in the regional and international situation, noting that the Israeli Northern Command has significantly strengthened its forces in a way that indicates its readiness for a ground war scenario. Hanna warns that entering a ground war would be very costly for Israel, recalling the experience of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon until 2000, expressing his belief that Israel's strategy may be directed towards the total destruction of the area from the Blue Line to Nabatieh, with the aim of making it uninhabitable and weakening Hezbollah's ability to fight.
Military and strategic expert, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, agrees with Hanna, adding that the Israeli military preparations - which have reached the point of mobilizing 5 additional military divisions attached to the 98th Division, bringing the total number to 6 divisions, in addition to two brigades - "cannot be the mobilization of this large number of forces in vain, but rather it is a preparation for a possible scenario that may be bad."
However, Al-Duwairi confirms that, so far, he does not see any real desire from the Israeli side or from Hezbollah to engage in a comprehensive ground battle, and he explains that each side has its reasons and justifications for avoiding this scenario at present. The military expert points out that Israel's declared goal is to return the "displaced", comparing this to its declared goal in Gaza, which is to free the prisoners. However, he stresses that achieving this goal has field requirements, including legal requirements such as implementing Resolution 1701, which stipulates that Hezbollah withdraw to the north of the Litani River.
In turn, Hanna said that the recent operations went beyond the direct borders to reach areas close to Tel Aviv and Haifa, which - according to the military expert - is new and of strategic significance, noting that the distance from the Lebanese border to Haifa is about 50 km, while it reaches the vicinity of Tel Aviv for a distance of about 110 km. Among the prominent targets that Hezbollah missiles have recently reached, Hanna mentions the Israeli Unit 8200, which is an important intelligence unit responsible for gathering information and eavesdropping. The expert believes that targeting this unit comes within the framework of the party’s awareness of the importance of intelligence information in the Israeli military strategy.
According to Hanna, Hezbollah has so far only targeted military targets, indicating that the party does not really want to expand the scope of the war, and also drawing attention to a new phenomenon of targeting areas that are not necessarily majority-supporting for Hezbollah, such as Keserwan and Jbeil.
For his part, Al-Duwairi describes the current stage as a stage of “breaking the will,” as Israel is trying to break Hezbollah’s will and make it comply with Israeli conditions. He warns that if the party insists on its position and translates the speech of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah regarding the unity of the arenas and the continuation of the fighting, “we may witness a ground war.”
Regarding the impact of firing a single missile on Mossad in Tel Aviv, Al-Falahi draws attention to the fact that Hezbollah’s launch of the “Qader 1” missile is considered a specific message in response to the “crime of blowing up the pager,” and he likens this attack to the Israeli raids on the southern suburbs of Beirut, which targeted specific locations based on intelligence information.
Hanna also stressed the importance of the weather and terrain factor in any potential military operation, as southern Lebanon, with its mountainous nature, valleys and forests, is completely different from the flat nature of Gaza, which could affect the course of military operations, especially air operations. Hanna notes that Hezbollah has previously proven its ability to withstand long periods, citing the 34-day war in 2006, and warns that Israel cannot afford another loss to the party, recalling an Israeli official’s statement that Israel could fall if it lost one war.
President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a moderate tone during his first address to the United Nations General Assembly, including saying Iran wants to hold more talks with the West and other global powers on its nuclear programme and US sanctions. But he also railed against the “genocide” being perpetrated in Gaza and called for a ceasefire. After returning to Tehran on Thursday, he told reporters that his team spoke with 15 countries about Gaza and Lebanon, and asserted that “the Zionist regime and its supporters are the biggest terrorists” who are killing civilians while claiming to be supporters of human rights and international law.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
