Operation True Promise 2 - Iran vs Israel
On 26 October 2024, Israel's military announced that it had launched a series of aistrikes against military facilities in Iran. Accodring to IDF spokesperson RAdm. Daniel Hagari, the strikes were "in response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel (...) The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since October 7th—on seven fronts—including direct attacks from Iranian soil." Explosions were reported to be heard in Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj. Early reports suggested that Iranian energy and nuclear facilities had not been targeted. There were three reported waves of Israeli airstrikes against Iran.
In the evening of October 1, 2024, Iran attacked Israel with missiles - the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced about 180 missiles were fired. Tehran called it a response to Israel's "aggressive actions," including the recent assassination of Hezbollah leader and co-founder Hassan Nasrallah. Israel said air defense forces repelled the air attack, and the IDF later said it had attacked Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. According to the Ministry of Health of Lebanon, at least 55 people were killed in the last day in the south of the country as a result of Israeli strikes.
The IDF and the Air Force prepared for action against Iran. Coordination has also been held with the Americans, and they are expected to receive an update before the attack - this as part of the joint preparation for Iran's retaliatory actions. Israel has already decided on the type of response, but its timing has not been determined. Final approval of the cabinet is required to carry out the operation.
The political echelon decided which targets will be attacked in Iran, it was announced in the 15 October 2024 evening news at Khan 11. The decision was made after a discussion held yesterday that lasted several hours in a hole in Kariya. An Israeli source told the news here after the discussion: "The goals are clear, now it's just a matter of time." It was also published this evening in the edition that Israel has not yet indicated to the United States exact targets that it plans to attack, but rather general lines regarding the targets of the attack. The American administration expressed satisfaction "relatively" with the targets that Israel plans to attack in response to the Iranian attack earlier this month. According to sources familiar with the details: "The goals can change even in the 90th minute."
The "New York Times" newspaper quoted sources familiar with the details this evening: "Israel's promises not to attack oil and nuclear sites only referred to the current attack. This means that it can still attack more ambitious targets in the next rounds of fighting with Tehran." Israeli officials told the newspaper that despite the statement that Israel will not harm nuclear challenges, it is possible that Israel will attack nuclear research laboratories, even if it avoids harming the underground enrichment sites. In the meantime, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived with a helicopter in the afternoon to a security facility in the Gillot area, and a security consultation was held there. An official involved in the details told here news: "The political-security cabinet will meet from time to time if necessary, to enable the operation to be carried out quickly."
Defense Minister Yoav Galant said regarding the expected reaction in Iran: "We see things eye to eye - the Prime Minister, the Defense Minister and the Chief of Staff, both in the context of the need for a response and the essence of the response." According to Gallant: "The reaction will be precise, painful and surprising towards Iran." Tonight it was reported in the United States that Netanyahu told President Biden that Israel will not attack nuclear facilities but Tehran's military assets. Gallant said these things in the emergency economic committee, to discuss preparation for the possibility of the expansion of the regional campaign, and to expand the government's preparedness for the rehabilitation of the northern settlements and the strengthening of the region.
It was announced on the "Kalman Lieberman" program on Network B that in the security consultation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant and other ministers, full agreements were reached on the course of action against Iran, the apparent timing and strength of the response. However, final approval by the cabinet is still required perform the action. Tonight it was reported in the "Washington Post" that Prime Minister Netanyahu told US President Joe Biden that Israel would be ready to attack military targets in Iran instead of nuclear and oil facilities. According to the report, the administration sees this as a sign of restraint on the part of Israel, after they expressed fear of an attack that would lead to a wide regional war.
In the conversation that Biden had with Netanyahu last 09 October 2024, the Prime Minister sounded like he was holding a more moderate position than in the past. This is what an American official privy to the details told the newspaper. This position, according to the source, somewhat influenced President Biden's willingness to send Israel an advanced air defense system. The report also stated that Netanyahu told Biden that the counter-reaction to Iran would take place in such a way that it would not affect the US election. The Wall Street Journal also confirmed the details, adding that the same message was also said in a phone call between Gallant and Austin. According to the report, Shem Israel She said she would attack intelligence facilities or military sites. The Prime Minister's Office said in response to the foreign reports: "We listen to the opinions of the American administration, but we will make our final decisions based on Israel's national interests."
Anonymous officials told US media on 14 October 2024 that Prime Minister Netanyahu had informed the White House of Israeli plans to attack Iranian military sites, rather than oil or nuclear facilities as earlier threatened, and do so before the November 5 elections. The Washington Post reported that Israel planned to strike Iranian military sites before the November vote. This was designed “to remind Americans that they cannot think and countenance thinking about separating American interests from those of Israel,” Dr. Isa Blumi, associate professor at Stockholm University’s Department of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, told Sputnik.
“What this proposal of staging another confrontation with Iran just before the elections is designed to do is force the political parties, those who are running for president, those who are running for the Senate, for the Congress to all ‘stand in solidarity’ with Israel,” Dr. Blumi said, pointing to the immense power the Israel lobby carries with the US political class. A repledging of loyalty is particularly important now, the professor believes, given “the fact that the American population is largely conflicted” about the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, with “the images of civilians being murdered, people burnt alive, the bombing of Beirut all now very much complicating the storyline” they’ve grown accustomed to hearing from their leaders and the press.
In this light, a new round of Israeli aggression against Iran and the inevitable Iranian response would “return American politics, the discourse around American politics into…a campaign to defend Israel from the easy ‘enemy of Western civilization’” – the Islamic Republic and its Axis of Resistance. This could prove particularly relevant if US troops found themselves in harm’s way, with any potential escalation “retold” and branded “as ‘a war of self-defense’ for Israel vis-à-vis the Iranians and its allies,” the observer said. Blumi expected Iran – whose political system is far more complex and nuanced than Western stereotypes give it credit for, to do its best to avoid an escalation. “If, however, Israel and the Americans actually engage in economic warfare and try to destroy Iranian oil infrastructure, for instance, then we may see the war expand,” he warned.
This reporting on an Israeli focus on Iranian military assets comes following two weeks of threats by Israeli officials, lawmakers and media about strikes on Iranian nuclear and energy sites, following Iran’s October 1 Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israeli military and intelligence facilities in response to a months-long series of Israeli provocations. The shift in tone may come out of the realization that if the IDF proceeds with attacks targeting Iranian energy facilities, Tehran could retaliate with a concentrated strike on a key Israeli trade hub, and major gas exploration and extraction infrastructure, says Furkan Halit Yolcu, security expert and researcher at Sakarya University’s Middle East Institute.
“When we imagine a scenario where Israel hits oil fields and important institutions like parliamentary buildings, government buildings, sites where large industrial buildings are located, I think Iran’s target is going to be Haifa – a coastal area where Israel’s biggest trade routes are. Haifa’s coastal area is really close to the Leviathan natural gas reserve search area. I think that’s going to immensely impact the Israeli search for natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean Sea,” Yolcu told Sputnik. “[Haifa] is really valuable for Israel because almost half of exports and imports are made through that coast. So paralyzing that part of Israel is going to hurt industry and production and the employment market – whatever you can imagine about Israel’s economy,” the observer emphasized.
An estimated 98% of Israel’s foreign trade passes through its maritime ports, including Haifa, Ashdod and Eilat, with Haifa processing around 30 million tons of cargo per year, accounting for 32% of all containers arriving in the country, and serving as a major regional transshipment hub. The blow that Israel would face from a potential Iranian attack on Haifa would exacerbate the economic strain already facing Tel Aviv along its ‘southern front’, with Yemen’s Houthi militias effectively shutting down Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat and driving it into bankruptcy amid an unceasing campaign of drone and missile attacks on suspected Israeli-linked merchant ships in the region, which have helped put a serious crimp on Tel Aviv's economic prospects.
As for WaPo’s reporting on Israeli plans to strike before November 5, this is connected with the realization, both in Washington and Tel Aviv, that a new escalation in the Middle East could have a dramatic impact on energy prices, markets and supply chains, Yolcu says.
An Israeli attack would likely serve to “increas[e] energy prices, which is going to help Russia, help China a bit, help Iran immensely. Hitting the oil fields and creating a supply [shortage] in the energy sector is going to help Iran in return. That’s one of the reasons why the United States is trying to avoid Israel hitting oil fields and energy industry institutions and sites,” the observer explained. Therefore, Israel is likely testing the waters and “checking in” with the US via these media reports citing anonymous officials to avoid any unexpected unpleasant reactions from Washington, whose continued sponsorship is critical to fueling Israel’s military machine, Yolcu said.
The Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported on 23 October 2024 that Israel is about to attack Iran despite American pressure to ease the attack. The authority described the current situation as “one of the most tense and complex times in Israel’s history.” This comes within the framework of preparations for a possible attack on Iran, in response to its missile attacks on Israel. The agency reported that an Israeli attack on Iran is "imminent," based on what was confirmed by unnamed Israeli officials, and indicated that the United States is aware that an Israeli attack on Iran may happen soon, but the American pressure is centered on how to respond. Israeli Defense Minister Galant said, during his visit to the flight crews at the Hatzerim Air Base, that Israel is still determined to respond to Iran. In a video released by his office, "After the attack on Iran, everyone inside and outside Israel will understand the strength and preparedness of our army." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian threatened Israel with a severe and decisive response if it attacked his country, and criticized the unconditional American support for Israel, while the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, threatened Tel Aviv with a devastating response if it attacked his country's nuclear facilities. "We do not seek war, but if any party wants to attack us, it will face a severe and decisive response," said Bazeshkian, stressing that "the Zionist entity has crossed all red lines and has proven by killing innocent people that it does not adhere to any humanitarian principle." The Iranian president said that what threatens the region is the unconditional support of the United States and Western countries for Israel.
The Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) quoted the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Mohammad Eslami, as saying that Iran is not concerned about an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. The Iranian official stressed that his country's defenses are capable of confronting any military threat, and said, "If Israel attacks our nuclear facilities, our response will be devastating."
Former Israeli Air Defense Commander Zvika Haimovich said that the Iranian response to the expected Israeli attack would be "different in style and timing." Haimovich said that Iran's attack on Israel on October 1 was fundamentally different from the attack on April 14. Haimovich believes that the Iranian response to the Israeli attack will be "very soon," saying that "the Iranians in the air force and air defenses are prepared for such a scenario."
The Iranian government is still seeking to avoid a war with Israel, but it is readying itself for all-out conflict as the country awaits Israel’s response to its missile attack earlier this month, The New York Times reported 25 October 2024. “Iran has ordered the armed forces to be prepared for war but also to try to avoid it,” according to the report, which cites four anonymous Iranian officials, including two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The sources explained “the scope of any Iranian retaliation … will largely depend on the severity of Israel’s attacks”. If Israel causes significant damage or casualties, Iran will respond, but if Israel only targets a limited number of military sites and weapons depots, “Iran might well do nothing”.
IRGC chief Hossein Salami issued new threats to Israel on 24 October 2024, warning the country not to count on the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system for protection. "Every time you fire a projectile, we will fire many more of you," he said. He also considered that Israel cannot win this conflict, saying, "We will defeat you." He warned Tel Aviv, considering that "a small entity whose economy depends on the sea for 98% of its value must think carefully, as unwise decisions may hasten its sudden downfall." In addition, he believed that "the Americans are making a mistake by linking their political reputation with the criminal Zionist entity and has become an outcast." He added that "the world today knows America through the bombs that fall on the children of Gaza and Lebanon," according to him.
For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that his country's response to any expected Israeli attack would be calculated and proportionate. Many Iranian officials have insisted, despite the threats and intimidation, over the past period that they are not seeking to expand the war or escalate it. They also indicated that their response would be precise and calculated as well.
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