fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed
It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies
Operation Northern Arrows - 26 Sep 2024
Israel said all options were on the table, that it’s going to spare no effort when it comes to accomplishing the goal of returning evacuated Israelis back to those towns and settlements in northern Israel. The Israeli army chief of staff said there will be Israeli military boots in enemy territory, and air strikes conducted by the army are going to assist with that – a similar policy to what we saw last October and November in the Gaza Strip. The head of Israel’s air force said he’s prepared to assist the Israeli military on the ground with continued air strikes, should there need to be a ground invasion into Lebanese territory. Air Force Commander Major-General Tomer Bar said “We are preparing shoulder to shoulder with Northern Command for a ground manoeuvre. Prepared, if activated. This is a decision to be made above us”. He wants to prevent Iran from assisting Hezbollah in any which when it comes to weapons transfers.
“A full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel could be devastating for both parties,” US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in London. A ceasefire in Lebanon “can also be used to conclude and implement a deal to secure a ceasefire in Gaza”, he added. Austin said the United States will continue to provide military aid to Israel no matter what happens in Lebanon and Gaza. Asked about “red lines” for US support to Israel, Austin told reporters the US won’t change its commitment to help Israel protect itself. “We’ve been committed from the very beginning to help Israel, provide the things that are necessary for them to be able to protect their sovereign territory, and that hasn’t changed and won’t change in the future,” Austin said after a meeting in London.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warns the Israel-Hezbollah conflict could spill over into the region after talks with Israeli opposition politician Benny Gantz. “Hezbollah must withdraw from the border area of Lebanon. All parties have a responsibility to find a diplomatic solution. I spoke about this with Benny Gantz. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah must not become a regional conflagration,” said Scholz.
The far-right partner in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government threatened to quit the coalition if a permanent ceasefire is reached with Hezbollah. Itamar Ben-Gvir, head of the Jewish Power party, threatened to suspend cooperation with the coalition if a temporary deal is reached. “If a temporary ceasefire becomes permanent, we will resign from the government,” he said. If Ben-Gvir leaves the coalition, Netanyahu would lose his parliamentary majority and could see his government come toppling down, though opposition leaders have said they would offer support for a ceasefire deal.
American and Israeli media outlets reported conflicting news about the ceasefire initiative between Israel and Hezbollah , launched by the United States and a number of Western and Arab countries, which calls for a 21-day truce leading to a political settlement. Talk of the proposal also sparked mixed reactions inside Israel. On Hezbollah’s part, there has always been a ceasefire proposal on the table. If there is a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, they will cease hostilities. This has always been the deal since October 8.
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said that Israel must announce that it accepts the ceasefire proposal, “but only for 7 days.” He stressed that any proposal must allow the residents of the north to return to their homes immediately and lead to the renewal of negotiations on the prisoner swap deal in Gaza , stressing the need to reject any agreement that does not include removing Hezbollah from Israel's northern borders, he said.
In contrast, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that the only way to restore the population and security to the north is "Hezbollah's surrender or war," stressing that the battle must end with crushing the party and depriving it of the ability to harm the population of the north. Channel 12 quoted the Settlements Minister as saying, "There is no moral mandate for a ceasefire, neither for 21 days nor for 21 hours."
The Israeli Minister of Culture and Sports also said that a ceasefire without any tangible concessions from Hezbollah is a "grave mistake," according to the Israel Hayom newspaper. The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation quoted members of the ruling Likud party as saying that "if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu goes for a ceasefire, we will reconsider our vote on approving the budget."
On the other hand, Netanyahu's office denied reports that he had agreed to a ceasefire proposal in Lebanon, stressing that it was "incorrect" and that the prime minister had not yet responded to the American-French offer. He added that Netanyahu ordered the army to continue fighting in the north with full force.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz also said , "There will be no ceasefire and we will fight Hezbollah until victory and the return of residents to the north." In turn, the office of Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati denied the news circulating about his signing the ceasefire proposal after he met with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and US envoy Amos Hochstein.
US officials told the New York Times that Israel and Hezbollah had not yet signed the ceasefire proposal, while other officials told Israel Hayom that the agreement would go into effect "within a few hours." Israeli Channel 12 reported - quoting a source in Netanyahu's office - that there is a green light for a ceasefire in order to start negotiations, and that Netanyahu ordered the Israeli army to reduce attacks in Lebanon against the backdrop of the ongoing talks.
The Washington Post also reported, citing American officials, that there is American optimism that Israel and Lebanon will sign a 21-day ceasefire agreement. Officials added that Hezbollah will not directly sign the agreement, but they expect that if the Lebanese government agrees to the agreement, it will be able to convince the party.
CNN quoted an official in President Joe Biden's administration as saying that the ceasefire proposal in Lebanon is a comprehensive effort to prevent the conflict from expanding into a regional war, and that efforts to mediate a ceasefire have begun in earnest for Washington.
Other US officials told the network they hope the ceasefire will lead to a breakthrough in Gaza. The Wall Street Journal reported that an American official felt, after talks with the parties, that the time had come to call for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but Hezbollah leaders still believed that Israel was hesitant about the issue of a ground invasion. ABC News quoted American officials as saying that Washington urged a diplomatic solution between Israel and Hezbollah, but it is concerned about a comprehensive war, and that Tel Aviv indicated that it intends to move forward with plans to battle the party.
It is noteworthy that the United States had launched earlier a joint initiative with a number of Western and Arab countries to call for a ceasefire between the Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel for a period of 21 days in order to make way for reaching a political settlement. US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said in a joint statement published early today, "We have worked together in recent days on a joint call for a temporary ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and avoid further escalation across the border." Biden and Macron added that "the statement we negotiated now has the support of the United States, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar."
However, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari explained that "there is no official mediation path yet working to stop the fire in Lebanon," stressing that Qatar is not aware of any direct link between the ceasefire proposal in Lebanon and the ceasefire in Gaza. Axios also quoted an American official as saying that the wording of the joint international statement and the Biden-Macron statement was coordinated with Lebanon and Israel, and that the countries that signed the statement believe that a 21-day truce is sufficient to find a settlement between the two parties.
Despite Israeli insistence that strikes on Lebanon will continue, Sky News reported 26 September 2024 that a 21-day cease-fire was set to take effect soon [as of 08 Octpbre 2024, there was no ceasefire]. Sky News reported, citing senior officials in the Biden administration, that the cease-fire with Hezbollah was expected to come into effect in the coming hours. The U.S. officials indicated that the ceasefire will last 21 days, as called for in a statement by U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, which was also joined by Australia, Canada, the European Union, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
"During these 21 days, the parties will hold negotiations. We hope for a solution that will return the citizens of both countries to their homes," a U.S. official said. He added that "the agreement will only be valid in Lebanon, but it will also buy time for negotiations with Hamas in Gaza. A diplomatic solution can be achieved."
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that "the campaign in the north should end in one scenario - crushing Hezbollah and denying its ability to harm the residents of the north. We must not give time to the enemy to recover from the severe blows it has received and to reorganize for the continuation of the war after 21 days. Surrender of Hezbollah or war, this is the only way we will restore the residents and security to the north and the country."
Minister Orit Struck also attacked: "There is no moral mandate for a cease-fire. Neither for 21 days nor for 21 hours. Hezbollah turned Lebanon into a barrel of explosives. UN Resolution 1701 turned the residents of the north into hostages, and exiles in their own country. We do not repeat past mistakes. We won't stop until it is fixed."
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said: "So now suddenly the world is pushing for a cease-fire with Hezbollah. It just doesn't work that way. Israel reacted very late and began to gradually destroy Hezbollah. So suddenly, the world decides that now is the time for a cease-fire? Israel must remove Hezbollah as a threat to our families. If Hezbollah wants the fire to stop, let it disarm and move 15 km away from the Israeli border."
Opposition leader Yair Lapid said that Israel "should announce this morning that it accepts the Biden-Macron cease-fire proposal, but only for seven days, in order not to allow Hezbollah to restore its command and control systems. We will not accept any proposal that does not include removing Hezbollah from our northern border." Prime minister Netanyahu's office had not responded to the report.
Then the prime minister’s office released a statement saying any reports of an imminent ceasefire was “incorrect” and that the IDF would continue fighting with “full force.” Later, the prime minister himself told the press as he got off his plane in New York City: “My policy, our policy, is clear: We continue to hit Hezbollah with all our might. We will not stop until we achieve all our goals.”
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