World War III.2 -Horizontal Escalation
Horizontal escalation refers to the expansion of a conflict or war into additional geographic areas or involving new actors on a similar level of involvement. It is a concept used in international relations and military strategy.
In the context of a conflict, horizontal escalation occurs when the original conflict spreads beyond its initial boundaries to involve additional territories or states. This can happen when a conflict between two parties draws in other countries or regions, leading to a broader and more complex conflict. Horizontal escalation can occur through the direct involvement of new actors or through their support for one side or the other.
For example, in the context of the Ukraine war, horizontal escalation would involve the conflict expanding to neighboring countries like Georgia or Moldova, with these countries becoming actively involved in the conflict either militarily or through support to one side.
Herman Kahn was an American strategist and futurist who became known for his work on nuclear warfare and escalation during the Cold War era. Kahn's views on escalation were outlined in his influential book published in 1965, titled "On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios." In this book, Kahn explored the dynamics of escalation in conflict, particularly in the context of nuclear war. He argued that understanding and analyzing different escalation scenarios was crucial for developing effective strategies and policies.
Kahn's main contribution was the development of a framework for understanding different levels of escalation in conflict. He proposed a spectrum of escalation, ranging from limited, localized conflicts to all-out global nuclear war. He argued that it was important to consider various factors that could influence the decision-making process during a crisis, such as military capabilities, political considerations, and the psychology of decision-makers.
One of Kahn's controversial ideas was the concept of "thinking the unthinkable." He suggested that policymakers and strategists should not shy away from considering extreme and previously unimaginable scenarios, including the use of nuclear weapons. By exploring these scenarios, he believed that decision-makers could better understand the potential consequences and develop more effective strategies for deterrence and crisis management.
Vertical escalation refers to the escalation of a conflict or crisis by increasing the level of destructive force of weapons employed. Vertical escalation typically occurs when a conflict cannot be resolved at lower levels. Weapons supplied to Ukraine by Western countries are becoming more and more advanced, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 04 June 2023, adding that possible deliveries of long-range missiles are fraught with a new escalation. "Indeed, the level of tactical and technical characteristics of the weapons that are going [to Ukraine] is constantly rising. Now we can already see the beginning of discussions on the supply of missiles with a range of 500 kilometers [310 miles] or more from France and Germany. This is a completely different type of weapon," Peskov told reporters, adding that such deliveries would bring about a new phase of escalation.
During the Great Patriotic War, which was the Soviet Union's term for its part of World War II, the concept of a "second front" referred to the opening of a new major front against Nazi Germany in Western Europe. The Soviet Union had been fighting against Germany on the Eastern Front since June 1941, and Stalin had repeatedly called for the Allies, particularly the United States and Britain, to open a second front in Western Europe to relieve some of the pressure on the Soviet forces.
The Soviet leadership believed that a second front would divert German resources and attention away from the Eastern Front and help to shorten the overall duration of the war. However, the Allies did not immediately open a second front, leading to considerable tension and disagreements between the Soviet Union and its Western allies.
It was not until June 6, 1944, with the Allied invasion of Normandy, commonly known as D-Day, that a significant second front was established. This operation marked the beginning of the liberation of Western Europe from German occupation and the eventual defeat of Nazi Germany.
To the West, the concept of a second front in the Great Patriotic War became symbolic of the cooperation and joint efforts of the Allies against Nazi Germany and the ultimate victory over fascism in Europe. To many Soviet analysts, teh failure of teh West to open a Second Front early in the war demonstrated a Western strategy of using Germany to weaken the Soviet Union.
During World War II, the United States did not provide direct aid to Nazi Germany. On the contrary, the United States was one of the Allied powers that fought against Nazi Germany and its Axis partners.
Before the United States entered the war in December 1941 following the attack on Pearl Harbor, it pursued a policy of neutrality and non-intervention. However, the U.S. government implemented measures such as the Lend-Lease Act, which allowed the United States to provide military equipment, supplies, and other forms of assistance to the Allied nations, including the Soviet Union, Great Britain, and other countries fighting against Nazi Germany.
The United States supplied significant aid to its Allies through lend-lease programs, which helped bolster their war efforts. This aid included war materials, vehicles, aircraft, and food supplies, among other resources. The U.S. also provided financial support and played a crucial role in coordinating the global war strategy against the Axis powers. The United States was actively engaged in fighting against Nazi Germany and played a significant role in the ultimate defeat of the Axis powers in World War II.
In May 2023 there was an increase in drone attacks and shelling in territory that is not directly on the front line — on both sides. Gerhard Mangott, an Austrian expert on Russia, saw a connection between the late May drone attack on Moscow, the shelling of Russian border regions and the deployment of "partisans," which is how he described the members of the paramilitary units stationed in Ukraine, namely the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, who say they are Russian citizens.
"Clearly, the Ukrainian side wants to bring the horror of war to Russia as well," Mangott told DW. "It wants to show the people there that the state is not capable of protecting them, whether in the border regions or Moscow," he said, adding that this undermined the Kremlin's attempts to "create the impression in Russian society that there is no war at all, that everything is normal."
Kyiv was trying to force Moscow to increase security along its border, and thus be compelled to withdraw troops from Ukraine. He pointed out that it would not become clear for weeks yet whether this strategy had improved Ukraine's chance of a successful counteroffensive.
A rise in cross border attacks on Russia and drone strikes inside the country presents a risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict, and the United States is watching it "very, very carefully," Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told American broadcaster -5 June 2023. There is "always risk," Milley said in a interview, when asked if the recent drone strikes on Moscow and the continued shelling of the Belgorod region would risk escalating the conflict.
Vladimir Putin didn't publicly expressed much concern about the attacks on the border regions. On 01 June 2023, the day of the most intensive attacks in Shebekino, he was calmly taking questions from schoolchildren, one of whom wondered whether he was more powerful than Santa Claus. Asked about the drone attacks in Shebekino, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov simply said, "Certainly this cannot affect the course of special military operation," seemingly downplaying the strikes.
As political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on Wednesday, Putin's strategy is to "keep quiet where possible, to present failures as successes, and to not dwell on the attacks: then there will be no need to react or make excuses. In his dealings with domestic institutions and the elite, Putin has long been guided by the same mantra of 'Don't make a big deal of it.'" But Stanovaya thinks Putin's usual playbook has begun to backfire. "People want to see strong leadership, but right now, that leadership is looking increasingly helpless and confused," she wrote.
Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst and former Putin speechwriter, thinks the recent attacks on Russian territory could have an impact on the public's perception of the Russian leadership and the war in Ukraine. "The raids in Belgorod completely destroy the myth of Putin's invincible army. They not only don't know how to advance, they're just as bad at defending," he said on Telegram. "Nothing can destroy the basis for public support under an authoritarian government more than [weakness]."
There were reports that the concentration of strike forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was taking place in the Transnistrian direction. But on 22 February 2023, in an interview with the British edition of the Financial Times, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, said that he does not see the risk of military scenarios on the Moldovan border in the near future. At the same time, Zelensky tells the Western media that Russia is allegedly "preparing an invasion of Transnistria and wants to take control of the Chisinau airport." And the Prime Minister of Moldova, Dorin Recean, says that the government admits such a scenario and is preparing to counteract it.
Kyiv and the United States may contemplate "second front" against the Russian Federation. There was no way to sign Georgia for an adventure. What remained is Transnistria. But Chisinau was not at all eager to fight. In addition, guarantees of security and peaceful settlement of the conflict in Transnistria were given by the international community, including the United States, the EU and the OSCE, as participants in the peace talks in the 5+2 format.
The writer "Andalusian Horseman" suggested 21 March 2024 that China might put boots on the ground in Taiwan and in North Korea. "Open up these two fronts to keep America busy so it doesn’t have time to back Europe. Essentially leaving Europe to Russia’s mercy. And another reason they sent this message across is because Russia and China’s interests are linked very closely, they’re strategic partners whose history of partnership goes back 20 years ago. They fear that if Russia falls in Ukraine, then China is next or if Europe falls in Ukraine, then that’s terrible for Chinese interests in Europe. It’s a lose-lose situation for China. Losing your strategic partner or losing one of your biggest customers."
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