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fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed

It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies

Operation Northern Arrows - 01 Oct 2024

IDF troops began limited, localized and targeted raids against Hezbollah terror targets in the border area of southern Lebanon. The IDF launched raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure located in villages in southern Lebanon. These areas have long been used by Hezbollah to prepare for hostile actions against Israel, and our objective is clear: remove the immediate threats to civilian communities in northern Israel. These operations as part of Operation “Northern Arrows” are carefully coordinated and supported by the Israeli Air Force and IDF Artillery, where precise strikes are being conducted on Hezbollah military targets in the area. This multi-layered approach ensures that we are striking at the heart of the threat, while minimizing risks to civilians.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin expressed his shared belief with Israel of the necessity of “dismantling Hezbollah’s offensive infrastructure” along the Lebanese border with the Hebrew state “to ensure that Lebanese Hezbollah cannot launch attacks similar to the October 7 attacks on northern towns in Israel.”

The IDF issued warnings to civilians in southern Lebanon, urging them to move away from areas where Hezbollah has embedded its forces and infrastructure. These warnings are part of our ongoing effort to prevent civilian casualties, while targeting the terrorist infrastructure that threatens Israel’s security. These weapons are those that would typically be associated with full-fledged militaries.

This operation was being conducted according to a methodical plan developed by the General Staff and Northern Command in which Israeli forces had undergone extensive training and preparation. Every step taken is part of a larger effort to protect Israel’s security, while also aligning with decisions made by the political echelon. Confronting threats on multiple fronts, the IDF remains fully committed to achieving the goals of this war, defending Israel and ensuring the safe return of her citizens. Operation “Northern Arrows” is a critical part of this mission, and the IDF continued to act decisively to safeguard our nation.

Following intelligence gathered over the years, the IDF also embarked on dozens of ground operations inside Lebanese territory. The goal: to neutralize and destroy Hezbollah's ability to carry out a surprise attack in the north. These are operations aimed at neutralizing and destroying Hezbollah's capabilities in the villages and areas near the border. Led by the Northern Command and directed by intelligence information from the Intelligence Division, IDF forces, led by special units, entered the heart of the fighting compounds that Hezbollah had abandoned in southern Lebanon.

For decades, Hezbollah built terrorist and fighting infrastructures in the villages near the border, through which it planned to penetrate into Israeli territory and carry out its October 7. Hezbollah built tunnels under the houses in the villages and armed them with weapons and weapons. The fighters entered the villages and the tangled areas and broke through the underground openings in dozens of targets all along the border. They uncovered the weapons caches and tunnels, gathered valuable intelligence, and thoroughly destroyed the weapons. including underground infrastructures and advanced means made in Iran.

Special forces from the Israeli army had begun activities inside Lebanese territory about two months ago with the aim of gathering intelligence, including information about buildings and tunnels. During dozens of operations in enemy territory, the forces uncovered and destroyed about 700 targets - among them underground compounds, thousands of military targets, warehouses of weapons, tens of tons of explosives, residences for activists, headquarters and more. Some of the means of warfare were taken to Israeli territory.

Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said that Israeli ground attacks in southern Lebanon "will target Hezbollah strongholds on the border," which pose a "threat to Israel." He explained: "These ground attacks will target Hezbollah strongholds that threaten Israeli towns, kibbutzim (residential communities) and communities on our borders." He added that "Hezbollah has turned the Lebanese villages adjacent to Israeli villages into military bases ready to attack Israel," stressing that the war is "with Hezbollah and not with the people of Lebanon."

For his part, an Israeli security official said, according to Reuters, that "the ground military operation in Lebanon is limited, and only extended a short distance across the border," adding that "there were no reports of direct clashes with Hezbollah fighters." He pointed out that the option of a broader operation targeting Beirut "is not on the table," noting that the participating forces "are the type that carry out limited operations."

Following the incursion of its forces into Lebanese territory, the Israeli army said that "violent battles" were taking place with the Hezbollah group in southern Lebanon, while the latter announced that it had "targeted Israeli forces" across the border in Metula, with artillery fire. "There is heavy fighting in the southern Lebanon area, during which Hezbollah elements are exploiting the civilian environment and the population as human shields to launch attacks," said Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee. He added via the "X" platform, addressing the residents of the area: "For your personal safety, we ask you not to move vehicles from the northern region to the area south of the Litani River."

Adraee said that "air force warplanes" raided "yesterday, with intelligence guidance from the Intelligence Service and in a precise manner, in the southern suburb of Beirut, a number of weapons production sites and other military structures belonging to the terrorist Hezbollah." He added, "Hezbollah deliberately chose to place its production sites and combat means in the heart of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and is hiding them in the heart of civilian centers there."

The American magazine " Time " quoted a source it described as "informed", saying that Iran "is working to transfer thousands of militants to the border areas between Syria and Lebanon." The source added to the magazine, "During the past two months, several thousand militants have already left Iraq for Syria," noting that this means that Tehran "is preparing to strengthen its deterrent force." The American magazine quoted the former Pentagon official, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, Jonathan Lord: “Iran is not fighting for its proxies, its proxies are fighting for it.”

"The (Iranian) regime is more interested in preserving itself, and will not deliberately put itself at risk," he added. An informed source had previously told the American Bloomberg Agency that Iran is trying to "transfer thousands of fighters to the border areas between Lebanon and Syria." The source, who was not named by the agency, added that "Iraq will turn, along with Syria, into main channels to Hezbollah," noting that the latter "built a network of tunnels on the Syrian-Lebanese border, and some of its leaders fled to Syria."

“Iran will have to respond, as a larger group of people emerges demanding revenge,” Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, told TIME. “The Iranian regime doesn’t want to get involved in a conflict it can’t win, so it will have to calibrate its responses.” It is noteworthy that the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed, on Monday, that Tehran "will not send militants" to Lebanon and Gaza to confront Israel.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said during his weekly press conference that "the governments of Lebanon and Palestine have the ability and strength to confront" Israel, noting that there is no need "to deploy Iranian auxiliary or volunteer forces," according to what was reported by the Radio Free Europe website. "We have not received any requests either, and we know they do not need assistance from our forces," the spokesman added.

The American Stratfor Center for Strategic and Security Studies said that Israel has multiple options for ground operations while Hezbollah tries to reorganize its ranks and recover from its losses. But it ruled out in his assessments that any ground operation would secure southern Lebanon in a definite and rapid manner, and might drag Israel into a longer and more extensive military campaign that would not fully achieve its goals and would cause more damage to Lebanon.

The assessment said that evidence, which emerged on September 30, had increased that Israel was preparing to invade Lebanon , with tanks spotted on Israel's northern border and US officials warning that an operation might be imminent. The Stratfor Center reported that the Israeli army continued its large-scale air strikes that targeted the Bekaa, Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Syrian-Lebanese border after the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.

Stratfor said that these operations aim to weaken Hezbollah's capabilities, dismantle its leadership structure, and prevent arms shipments from Syria by imposing an effective military siege against the organization, isolating it from its allies and supply lines from Iran . The American center added that Israeli officials - whose identities were not revealed - claimed that the Israeli army had already begun special operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in recent days and months, and had reached the tunnels to collect intelligence about them and about the organization's readiness to wage a ground war.

According to Stratfor's assessment, Israel is exploiting the "temporary chaos" in Hezbollah after a series of successful strikes and its weak response to the killing of its leader, suggesting that the Netanyahu government will seize what it sees as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to dismantle the party's military wing. Stratfor considers Israel’s successive tactical victories—including its September 17-18 attacks on Hezbollah’s electronic devices—and the damage to the Lebanese party’s command-and-control structure and military capabilities, as encouraging the IDF to seize the opportunity to impose a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, in the hope of allowing northern Israelis to return after being forced to flee by Hezbollah’s cross-border rocket attacks.

The American center believes that the Israelis feel emboldened because Hezbollah has become largely depleted and unable to defend effectively against them on the ground or to threaten their cities on a sustained basis. The Israelis are also exploiting Iran’s apparent unwillingness to rush to Hezbollah’s defense or respond significantly to Israel for Nasrallah’s killing, even though Hezbollah is Tehran’s most well-armed, organized, and important proxy in the region.

Stratfor suggests that Israel would likely launch at least a limited ground incursion into Lebanon as a first option, although Israel might adopt more aggressive strategies to create the desired buffer zone in the south. Israel has said it does not seek to destroy Hezbollah, the goal of its 2006 war with the Lebanese group, but rather to weaken it to the point where it is forced to withdraw from the border and end attacks on Israel.

As a result of this goal, which Stratfor describes as the least expansive, Israel will scale back ground operations designed to break Hezbollah's political will to resist and create a buffer zone in the south without diverting focus from the Gaza and West Bank fronts.

These options, ranked from most likely to least likely, include:

1. Invading southern Lebanon and then withdrawing to the border , similar to Israel’s strategy in Gaza, with the aim of creating a “limited demilitarized zone” in which Hezbollah and other militants cannot establish themselves or move. Israel will enforce this zone by firing across the border rather than by ground forces, thus limiting the risk of the army falling into the trap of guerrilla warfare.
2. Limited operations in a border area to occupy a buffer zone . In this scenario, the Israelis would send forces to occupy a strip about 10 kilometers deep inside Lebanon. This option is more dangerous diplomatically and militarily than raids and withdrawals.
3. Advance to the Litani River , then withdraw . After the Israeli army sees Hezbollah in a state of chaos, it will advance deep into southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, flood the area with troops to dismantle the party’s infrastructure, and kill and capture large numbers of its fighters.
4. Advancing toward the Litani River to re-establish a temporary version of the buffer zone it established in 1982. In this scenario, the occupation army concludes that retaining Lebanese territory is the only way to achieve Israel’s security goals and make Hezbollah willing to negotiate a sustainable end to the fighting.

The American center goes on to say that Israeli ground operations as far north as the Bekaa may not rely on traditional brigades but rather commando forces that are also likely to begin operating frequently inside Syria to intercept supplies from Iran, capture and kill senior Hezbollah leaders, and weaken Hezbollah's position in general. Meanwhile, the Israeli air campaign may intensify across the rest of Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah forces as well as the transportation infrastructure needed to resupply them in an attempt to cripple the organization.

Stratfor concludes by hypothesizing that if Hezbollah were able to kill enough Israeli troops, this would weaken Israel's resolve to maintain the buffer zone, and might force it to end the fighting without guarantees of the party's permanent withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

In light of the accelerating military escalation between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, many countries around the world announced the evacuation of their citizens from Lebanon, while other countries urged them to leave, amid the possibility of the war expanding regionally after the Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon began.