fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed
It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies
Operation Northern Arrows - 28 Sep 2024
More than 1,000 people have been killed and over 6,300 others injured in Lebanon in Israeli airstrikes over the past 12 days, Lebanon's caretaker Health Minister Firas Abiad said 28 September 2024. "As many as 1,030 people, including 56 women and 87 children, were killed from September 16-27, 2024. The total number of people injured during this period is 6,352," Abiad said.
US officials do not recommend that Israel conduct a ground operation in Lebanon. At the same time, US forces in the region are preparing for Iran's possible response to the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. This was reported by The Washington Post on 28 September 2024 with reference to sources. "A senior administration official said the U.S. is preparing for a range of possible responses, including a direct response from Hezbollah, attacks by Iranian-controlled forces such as the Houthis in Yemen, Iranian attacks on U.S. forces in the region or a direct missile strike Iran behind Israel," the publication emphasizes.
According to one of the officials, the US is well prepared to deal with various options for retaliatory actions. US officials believe that "the operations carried out by Israel led to the defeat of Hezbollah". As specified by sources of the publication, "US officials continue to recommend that Israel not carry out a ground invasion of Lebanon", as this will only complicate Israel's attempts to weaken Hezbollah .
“Hassan Nasrallah is dead,” Israeli military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani announced. Hezbollah’s leader for the past 32 years, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike on Lebanon’s capital Beirut the evening of 27 September 2024. Ali Karki, the commander of Hezbollah’s southern front, and other Hezbollah commanders were also killed in the massive air attack on Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh, the Israeli military claimed. Hezbollah is clearly marred by fundamental rot and internal corruption if the Israelis have been able to penetrate its security so thoroughly and decapitate most of its known senior leadership so rapidly.
The commander of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Lebanon, Abbas Nilforooshan, was killed during an Israeli airstrike on Beirut, Iranian news agency Mehr reported. Nilforooshan, who was also the IRGC's deputy chief for operations, was reportedly killed alongside Nasrallah.
US President Joe Biden called the killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah by Israel a "measure of justice," claiming the movement's leader was responsible for killing hundreds of Americans. "Hassan Nasrallah and the terrorist group he led, Hezbollah, were responsible for killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror. His death from an Israeli airstrike is a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians," Biden said in a statement released by the White House. Biden added that the United States supported Israel's right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Palestinian movement Hamas, the Houthis and "any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups."
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that the elimination of Lebanese movement Hezbollah leader Hassan Hasrallah was "one of the most justified counter-terrorism actions" that Israel had ever taken. "The elimination of arch-terrorist Nasrallah is one of the most justified counter-terrorism actions Israel has ever taken. Nasrallah, who dedicated his life to the destruction of Israel and led over 30 years of terror activity against Israel, including in recent days, deserved to be taken down," Katz wrote on X.
Moscow strongly condemns the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, warning that it may have serious consequences for Lebanon and the entire Middle East. Russia called on Israel to cease fire, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. ”We strongly condemn yet another political assassination committed by Israel,” the statement said. “This act of force is fraught with further dramatic consequences for Lebanon and the entire Middle East. Israel could not have been unaware of the danger but proceeded with this step – the killing of Lebanese citizens, which will almost inevitably provoke a new wave of violence.”
Palestinian movement Hamas declared a united front with Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah after the latter officially confirmed the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike on a southern suburb of Beirut. "We, the Hamas movement, and in the face of this Zionist crime and massacre, must renew our absolute solidarity and stand together with our brothers from Hezbollah and the Islamic resistance in Lebanon, who are participating with our people and Operation Al-Aqsa Flood [a Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023] in defense of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and of the legitimate rights of our people and its aspiration for freedom, independence and self-determination," Hamas said in a statement.
Nearly all of Hezbollah’s military leaders have been eliminated in recent Israeli strikes, officials in West Jerusalem have claimed, after the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in a bombardment of a compound in Beirut. In a post on X, the Israeli Foreign Ministry released a diagram of what it said was Hezbollah's military chain of command. All of the 18 high-ranking members – including Nasrallah and Ali Karaki, the commander of Hezbollah’s Southern front, and the heads of several units – are said to have been “eliminated.” A separate post by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) listed 11 senior Hezbollah members, ten of whom were also described as “eliminated.” Only Abu Ali Rida, the commander of the Bader unit, has survived so far, according to the list. The IDF list largely mirrored the ministry’s, but included two additional names – Ibrahim Muhammad Qabisi, the commander of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile force, and Hussein Srour, the head of the Aerial Command – both of whom are also presumed dead.
Just more than a week ago, Israel also killed senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil in Beirut. These events come just two months after Hamas’s political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by Israel in Iran. The deaths of Nasrallah and other leaders in these unprecedented attacks on Lebanon and during the mass detonation of pagers and handheld radios belonging to Hezbollah commanders earlier this month have left the group facing a potential power vacuum. Israel has claimed this as a huge victory, but observers fear an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, backs Hezbollah.
In a statement, in which it confirmed the death of Nasrallah, Hezbollah said it would continue its military operation in support of Gaza and the defence of Lebanon. It launched five rocket attacks into northern Israel following the announcement that Nasrallah had been killed, according to Al Jazeera correspondent Imran Khan, reporting from Marjayoun, Lebanon.
“It is going to be extremely hard for the people of Lebanon who believe in the resistance to accept this assassination and the news of his death,” military analyst Elijah Magnier told Al Jazeera. “There is no other leader of the same charisma – not the leadership but the charisma – that Nasrallah enjoyed in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East among those who supported the resistance.”
While many in Israel celebrated the killing of Nasrallah, Israel’s military said it still had a “ways to go” in the fight against Hezbollah and would continue targeting its leaders. “Hezbollah still has rockets and missiles and has the capability of shooting many of them simultaneously,” said Shoshani, adding that the Iran-backed group was believed to have “tens of thousands of rockets”. The army’s chief of staff Herzi Halevi said: “The message is simple, anyone who threatens the citizens of Israel – we will know how to reach them.”
While Hezbollah has been hit hard in the short term, analysts say it is unlikely that the group will be badly affected in the long run as one leader can be replaced with another and the group maintains its vast military arsenal and strength. Beirut is considered to be Hezbollah’s “weakest point” as it is also where Western embassies and people who are affiliated with Western intelligence agencies are, said Mohammad Marandi, a professor at the University of Tehran. Overall, however, “Israel does not have the capability to defeat Hezbollah militarily”, Marandi told Al Jazeera.
Analysts say the group now faces strategic choices amid a temporary leadership vacuum rather than a full blow to its survival. “Hezbollah is not going to disappear,” said Yezid Sayig, senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Programme. It will “exercise strategic patience” even if Iran does not sweep in to defend them now, he added. Experts do believe, however, that Hezbollah has made other mistakes that have weakened it relative to Israel.
“The big mistake that Hezbollah has made is to allow the Iranians to use them too much as a proxy,” said Sultan Barakat, senior professor in public policy at Hamad Bin Khalifa University. “Hezbollah were very effective when they fought for the liberation of the Lebanese land – for their own people.” For the last year, however, Iran has given them little agency around how to use weapons they were given, while the group has miscalculated how much violence Israel is willing to exert, not just on the people of Gaza, but on the Lebanese people as well, he told Al Jazeera.
Experts largely agree that Israel will continue on the offensive. “Israel views it has momentum on its side following Nasrallah’s death and would want to take maximum advantage of a leadership vacuum,” Ali Rizk, a security and policy analyst, told Al Jazeera.
The perceived success of its assault on Hezbollah may also sway domestic public opinion in Netanyahu’s favour, according to Mohamad Elmasry at the Doha Institute of Graduate Studies. “Israelis who were opposing Netanyahu were opposed to his failures in Gaza, not being able to eliminate Hamas and not being able to bring hostages home, but they were not an antiwar crowd,” Elmasry said. However, Israel may not necessarily achieve its stated goals of eliminating resistance and creating calm. In the past, escalated attacks have worked against them by breeding more resistance and opposition to Israel, Elmasry told Al Jazeera.
A continued offensive would also require continued supply of American ammunition, according to Elijah Magnier a military analyst in Brussels. In his first statement after the assassination, US President Joe Biden said Washington supported Israel’s military strikes against Hezbollah, and described Nasrallah’s killing as “justice” for hundreds of Americans he accused Hezbollah of killing.
While Nasrallah’s killing added to fears of an Iranian response, experts say the country now faces an even more delicate balancing act between standing up to Israel and avoiding a spillover of war in the region. “Iran will probably not opt for an all-out escalation,” said Rizk. He added that the country will likely continue its usual approach of “fighting via proxies, including allies in Iraq and Yemen” before entering into any direct confrontation with Israel.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a statement on the killing of Nasrallah on Saturday, saying it “will only further strengthen the resistance”. He added that the international community will not forget that the order for this “terrorist attack” was issued from New York, likely referring to Netanyahu’s presence at the United Nations General Assembly. Pezeshkian also said the United States cannot deny complicity in Nasrallah’s killing as it has continued to supply weapons and military aid to Israel since the war on Gaza began nearly one year ago.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remained defiant amid Nasrallah’s fate, saying Israel had not seriously hurt Hezbollah’s “strong structure”, and urging Muslims around the world to stand with Hezbollah in confronting Israel. “Let the Zionist criminals know that they are far too insignificant to cause any major damage to the strong structure of Hezbollah in Lebanon,” said Khamenei in reference to Israel. “By the grace of God, Lebanon will make the invading, wicked, and discredited enemy regret their actions,” he said.
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