fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed
It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies
Operation Northern Arrows - 30 Sep 2024
The US president called for a ceasefire when asked about reports that Israel is preparing for a “limited” ground invasion of Lebanon. Joe Biden, asked if he was comfortable with Israel’s plan, replied: “I’m comfortable with them stopping.” He did not elaborate on how the US plans to halt the conflict, or on the fact that it continues to provide Israel with weapons and billions of dollars in aid.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari commented on reports that Israeli forces have begun a ground operation. "In recent hours, many reports and rumors have spread about the activity of the Israeli army on the Lebanese border. We ask that you do not transmit reports about the activities of the forces, for the sake of the security of our forces. Stick to official reports only and do not spread irresponsible rumors."
US Officials confirmed that Israeli Forces crossed into Southern Lebanon, and were beginning Limited-Ground Operations against Hezbollah Positions near the Border.
The ministers of Israel's political-security cabinet officially approved the next phase of the operation in Lebanon during their meeting 30 September 2024. In mid-September 2024, the cabinet approved another goal for the war that remained confidential: preventing a broad campaign involving Iran. On the 26 September 2024, on the eve of Nasrallah's assassination, the cabinet ministers changed this goal. In the special discussion convened when the Prime Minister was at his hotel in New York, the ministers updated the goal to "reduce the multi-aspect campaign". In other words, Israel was preparing for a significant expansion of the war - including an exchange of blows with Iran. The details were approved for publication by the military censor.
Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz told his counterparts is several countries, including in the United States and Germany, that there will be no ceasefire in Lebanon; and that the end of the campaign will only come with the dissolution of Hezbollah.
A US official told the Washington Post that Israel had informed Washington that it is planning a limited ground operation in Lebanon, which may begin soon and will be smaller than it was in its war against Hezbollah in 2006. The plan will focus "on clearing Hezbollah's infrastructure along the border" to remove the threat it poses to cities in northern Israel.
The New York Times reported that American officials believe they have persuaded Israel not to launch a major ground attack in southern Lebanon. This understanding was reached, according to the newspaper, after intensive talks that took place over the weekend. The newspaper indicates that American officials had detected signs of Israeli preparations to launch a major ground operation in southern Lebanon, and that it was imminent. After discussions with the Israelis, officials said they believed Israel was now planning only "small, targeted raids" in southern Lebanon.
This matter was also confirmed by CNN, which quoted an American official as saying that the United States believes that Israel may soon make a limited incursion into southern Lebanon, after discussions between the two countries. The network reported that the limited ground incursion will target Hezbollah's infrastructure near the border with Israel.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said in a conversation with the heads of councils in the northern border towns that “the next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon. It will be an important factor in changing the security situation and will allow us to complete the important part of the war’s goals, which is returning the residents to their homes, and the operation that is taking place now is in fact part of implementing this.”
The minister added, according to what was reported by Alhurra's correspondent: "This is how the center of gravity appears to be shifting: eliminating Nasrallah, eliminating the missiles, targeting senior officials, and this depends on impressive intelligence and operational successes." Galant had said earlier that "eliminating Nasrallah is an important step, but it is not the end. To return the residents of the north safely to their homes, we will activate all our capabilities, including you."
Alexander Dugin delved into the current state of the Axis of Resistance following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. He explained that the Axis of Resistance in the Middle East was heavily supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran, "and the late Hassan Nasrallah, as the leader of Hezbollah, represented the vanguard of the anti-Israeli resistance of the entire Islamic world." Recalling the strange death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Dugin says that "the picture of Israel attacking its regional adversaries appears to be out of the ordinary.
Dugin further recalls that "Israel's" actions are driven by a Zionist vision of creating a "Greater Israel," with support from extremist factions in the occupied territories. These factions, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers, are preparing for the arrival of the Messiah, a goal that involves dominating the region and potentially even destroying the Al-Aqsa Mosque to build the Third Temple, Dugin explains.
"Perhaps now Israel's land invasion of Lebanon and beyond will follow. In order to create the 'Great Israel' from sea to sea. No matter how utopian and extremist the projects of Netanyahu and his even more right-wing ministers Smotrych and Ben-Gvir may look, they are being implemented right now before our eyes."
According to the New York Times, Israeli Reservists and logistics trucks were gathering at Assembly Points across Northern Israel, with two dozen Humvees filled with soldiers in full-kit equipped with night-vision googles seen heading north near Kiryat Shmona. IDF special forces are conducting raids into Lebanon. The targeted raids have been going on for months and have included Hezbollah's vast tunnel network, according to The Wall Street Journal. The purpose of these operations was to glean information in preparation for a possible invasion, the sources reportedly told the WSJ.
Israel had told the US about a number of operations, the US State Department said, adding that they have discussed reports of ground operations, and Israel has told Washington they are at this time limited operations focused on Hezbollah infrastructure near the border with Lebanon. “They have been informing us about a number of operations; I know I’ve seen reports about ground operations. We’ve had some conversations with them about that,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters on Monday. “They have at this time told us that those are limited operations focused on Hezbollah infrastructure near the border. But we’re in continuous conversations with them about it.” Miller also said that the US “still supports” a ceasefire in Lebanon, “but at the same time, military pressure can at times enable diplomacy”, appearing to support Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.
Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee said that the military leadership approved strengthening the defense on the contact line, announcing that the army is preparing for the coming days. He added that the army's "188th Brigade" conducted training near the northern border and at command headquarters, and training was also conducted for town protection departments to provide a response to various scenarios.
A source in the Lebanese army told Agence France-Presse that its forces are repositioning themselves near the border in southern Lebanon in light of Israeli threats of a possible ground incursion. The source, who preferred to remain anonymous, said that "the Lebanese army forces are repositioning and gathering forces on the southern border," shortly after Israel informed the United States of "limited" ground operations targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure inside Lebanese territory. Reuters quoted a Lebanese security source as saying that Lebanese forces withdrew to a distance of 5 kilometers from the north of the border, while local residents and a security source in southern Lebanon said that they saw the Lebanese army withdrawing from several locations on the southern border with Israel.
A security source told Alhurra TV that heavy artillery shelling targeted areas near the border, starting from the Khiam plain, passing through Wazzani and reaching the Kfar Shouba heights, pointing to intensive flights by Israeli spy aircraft.
Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel said one of the common claims in recent days is that Israel has overestimated Hezbollah, and for years has made itself more fearful of it. Harel warned that the army's recent achievements have encouraged a mood of arrogance in television studios, where broadcasters and experts compete in assessing the enemy's weakness and praising Israeli genius.
The military analyst on the Israeli Walla news website, Amir Bohbot, pointed out the necessity of exploiting what he described as the relative separation between the top of the organization and the field commanders, and the difficulty of transmitting orders within Hezbollah at the required time.
Reserve Lieutenant Colonel Kobi Lavi, the military affairs analyst for the Israeli Broadcasting Authority (official), claimed that Israel's goal from a possible ground maneuver deep inside Lebanon is not occupation, but rather to remove Hezbollah elements from the border to ensure the return of the residents of the northern towns to their homes.
To accept a ceasefire, Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz, in letters he sent to his counterparts in 25 countries, stipulated that Hezbollah move north of the Litani River and disarm it, according to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority (official).
In anticipation, the Deputy Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, announced in a televised speech that the party is prepared for any Israeli ground operation and its forces are ready for a ground engagement. Sheikh Qassem further reinforced the group's long-standing embrace of martyrdom, declaring that Sayyed Nasrallah will be replaced and that their fight against "Israel" will continue unabated. "We love martyrdom," Sheikh Qassem said. "We will replace leaders with leaders."
The Resistance has consistently framed martyrdom as a form of honor, a narrative that has been reinforced by the spiritual roots of Hezbollah for years. Sheikh Qassem's message was clear: Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact, and "Israel's" tactics, which target both Hezbollah military assets and civilians, are seen as attempts to create division among the Lebanese people—a strategy Sheikh Qassem said would not succeed.
Qassem assured that Hezbollah remains resolute and ready to face any Israeli ground invasion, maintaining that the group will continue to defend Lebanon and its people. Qassem reiterated that Hezbollah’s leadership structure is resilient, with clear plans in place for the replacement of leaders, ensuring that the Resistance’s goals remain united.
"Everything we've endured—from the challenges of our past, including the pager situation, to the powerful testimonies of our leaders, particularly our great leader—would have shaken the very foundations of [huge] armies. Yet, we have not wavered; we have moved forward with unwavering sacrifice," Sheikh Qassem said. "We stand united in our struggle, bound by a single mission, and victory will ultimately be ours. What is required now is patience, as we have mobilized every ounce of our strength and preparedness for the challenges that lay ahead," he added. Elijah Magnier, a military analyst based in Brussels, says that Israeli attacks in Lebanon have injured thousands of Hezbollah operatives, reducing the group’s combat effectiveness. “There are thousands of Hezbollah operatives who’ve lost their hands or their eyesight, and they’ve been evacuated to hospitals in Syria and Iran. Therefore, these fighters are out of the equation and can no longer participate in any potential war,” he told Al Jazeera. Moreover, he added that Israel has bombarded at least 3,000 to 3,500 of Hezbollah’s missile units, which has been “highly effective against everything that is above ground”. Despite this, Magnier said Hezbollah’s armed forces that have not been engaged in any attacks, as well as their naval forces, were still “intact”.
At least 45 people were killed in Lebanon’s Ain al-Delb in the south of the capital Beirut, raising the death toll in Israeli attacks in the past 24 hours to 136, according to Lebanese authorities. The death toll included three members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine group who were killed in the Kola area of Beirut in Israel’s first attack on the Lebanese capital beyond the southern suburbs.
Hezbollah said its fighters targeted northern Israel’s Gesher Haziv settlement with a “salvo of rockets”. Earlier, Hezbollah said it had also fired rockets at the northern Israeli town of Safed. It did not elaborate on the results of the attacks that it said came in response to Israeli attacks on the Lebanese territory.
The assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was the culmination of a series of attacks against the organization's top leadership and key weapons caches, based on intelligence gathered over decades, The Times of Israel reported. In a news analysis, it reported that Hezbollah is now facing major challenges in confronting the breaches within its ranks that helped Israel destroy its weapons sites, booby-trapped its communications devices, and assassinate its “veteran” leader, whose whereabouts had been kept a secret for years.
A source "familiar with Israeli thinking" told Reuters hours before the strike that Israel had focused its intelligence efforts on Hezbollah for 20 years and could have targeted Nasrallah if it had wanted to at the time, even if he was at his organization's headquarters. Nasrallah had avoided public appearances since the 2006 Second Lebanon War. He had been "vigilant" for a long time, his movements restricted and the circle of people he saw very small, according to a source familiar with his security arrangements, who the Israeli newspaper quoted as saying that the assassination indicates that Israeli agents had infiltrated his group.
Reuters reported that an unidentified security source told it a week ago that the Hezbollah leader had been more cautious since the September 17 bombings, fearing that Israel would try to kill him, pointing to his absence from the funeral of one of the leaders and his pre-recording of a speech that was broadcast a few days earlier. In a news report in the same context, The Times of Israel quoted the American newspaper, The New York Times, as saying that Israel knew the location of Hassan Nasrallah months before launching the strike that killed him.
"Everything we planned was carried out precisely, without errors, whether in intelligence, planning, aircraft or the operation itself. Everything went smoothly," the commander of the Israeli Air Force's 69th Squadron told reporters. The newspaper revealed that the squadron has a fleet of F-15I fighter jets, and is stationed at the Hatzerim Air Base in southern Israel, adding that half of the pilots who participated in the operation are reserve soldiers.
Israel's Channel 12 claimed that the United States felt misled once the strike on Nasrallah occurred. According to the channel, some Israeli government ministers at a cabinet meeting opposed the plan to target Nasrallah, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich . Smotrich, a “hawk,” and Regional Cooperation Minister David Amsalem were said to be concerned that the move could harm the IDF’s operations in the Gaza Strip.
The United States warned Iran that if it attacked Israel directly in the coming days, the Israeli response this time will be more severe and extensive than it was in April, according to what was reported by Alhurra's correspondent in Tel Aviv.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Tehran will not send forces to support Lebanon or Palestine, because the resistance in both countries has the necessary capabilities to confront Israel, according to it, while a senior Iranian official stated that the axis of resistance will continue the confrontation using unconventional methods. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said during his weekly press conference on Monday that "Lebanon and Palestine have the necessary capacity and strength to confront the aggression of the Zionist regime, and there is no need to deploy Iranian auxiliary or volunteer forces."
"We have not received any requests and we know that they do not need assistance from our forces," Kanaani added. The spokesman stressed that "the usurping Zionist regime will not remain unpunished for the crimes it has committed against the Iranian people, resistance forces, citizens and soldiers."
Bilal al-Shoubaki, head of the political science department at Hebron University, believes that Israel is focusing at this stage on two issues: the first is to prevent Hezbollah as much as possible from repairing the damage caused by the strikes that were directed at it, and it has an understanding that the party cannot move from the current level of confrontation with Israel to another level except by repairing the organizational ranks.
Through the continuous strikes against Hezbollah and its talk of an imminent ground attack on southern Lebanon, Israel is trying to prevent the party from catching its breath, and this is the immediate goal of the occupation, says Al-Shoubaki. Strategically, Al-Shoubaki explained that Israel believes “that the next stage is the stage of political arrangements, not the stage of negotiations,” and therefore, in light of “the euphoria of the victory it has achieved,” it will seek to “impose arrangements on Lebanon.”
In the opinion of academic and political researcher Ali Shukr - in an analysis of the political scene in Lebanon - Hezbollah's strategy during the next stage is divided into two levels: the first relates to the continuation of the support front, as evidenced by the escalation of the resistance's performance today, which made the Israeli occupation acknowledge that the effectiveness of the resistance at this level still poses a threat to Israel. The other level relates to leadership and the restructuring of the General Secretariat and the basic bodies at the field level in the first and second ranks, a process that requires some time.
The academic and political researcher expected that Hezbollah would quickly re-form a new leadership, and based on that, the features of its future position would be drawn. He said, “There are arrangements that are supposed to be very quick and through which a new leadership for Hezbollah will be produced.” He added, “The decision to use weapons and missiles requires a new leadership and not just traditional field procedures.” Regarding the Iranian position in light of current developments, and whether it will respond to Israel, Ali Shukr spoke about a different phase, after the occupation assassinated Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah, and pointed out that this strike and the assassinations that targeted the leaders of the Lebanese party led to a strategic change. "I think the Iranian performance and role should be different now," he said.
According to the academic and political researcher, what he called the geopolitical expression used by Israel reflects what is going on in its mind that it is capable of weakening the axis of resistance, but this matter - the speaker added - is linked to the nature of this axis’ response to Israel, pointing out that the strategic change in the region that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about will lead to the collapse of the axis of resistance, and thus the end of the Iranian role in the region.
For his part, Al-Shoubaki pointed out that there is an Israeli reading of the Iranian mind that indicates that Iran does not want to engage in a confrontation with Israel that would lead to escalation in the Middle East region, while the Israelis see that directing a strike against Iran is an inevitable matter. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General and Deputy Commander of Revolutionary Guards Operations Abbas Nilforoushan in an Israeli raid in the southern suburbs of Beirut "will not pass without a response."
The spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, Stephane Dujarric, said that the UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) were unable to conduct patrols due to the intensity of the Israeli strikes and Hezbollah missiles targeting Israel. He explained to reporters that "UNIFIL forces remain in their positions in the mission's area of ??responsibility, while the intensity of the fighting prevents their movements and their ability to carry out the tasks assigned to them,"
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