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Russo-Ukraine War - October 2024

Su	M	Tu	W	Th	F	Sa
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Russian troops took control of Vuhledar in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region on 02 October 2024, opening the way for Russian forces to advance toward other towns in the region. Russians call the town, which sits on a flat plain and is comprised of high-rise apartment buildings and other structures, Ugledar, suggesting that Ukrainian is not simply a Russian dialect. Both sides value Vuhledar due to its position on elevated ground at the intersection of the eastern and southern battlefield fronts, making it key to supply lines. Vuhledar – which means “gift of coal” – is a coal mining town in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region with a pre-war population of around 14,000 people, nearly all of whom have fled. It was built by the Soviet Union in the mid 1960s around a mine. There are two mines there with significant coal reserves.

Control of the town – which Russians long regarded as one of Ukraine’s toughest fortified positions to crack – was considered important by both sides because of its position on elevated ground and because it sits at the intersection of the eastern and southern battlefield fronts giving it added significance when it comes to supplying both sides’ forces. While Ukrainian forces were in full control of Vuhledar, they were able to use the town as a platform to shell Russian military supply lines in the area. The town sits close to a railway line from Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, to Ukraine’s industrialised Donbas region.

The 72nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed to hold the town, which was situated on a hill and had a very favourable position for defence, and which this brigade and other units had held for two years. One of the military officers at the headquarters of one of the battalions of the 72nd Brigade explained: ‘And what is a dominant height now, if the enemy’s reconnaissance drones are hovering over you around the clock? And they have an advantage in artillery, we had practically no artillery, it’s not like it was in the winter of 23rd, when we defeated the 155th Brigade (in February 2023, the 72nd Brigade destroyed several columns of Russian tanks and effectively rendered the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Federation incapable of fighting, which attacked Pavlivka, near Vuhledar — ed.) Then we had a lot of artillery, shoot if you want, but now we don’t, they have parity in the air due to the larger number of FPV drones. The Russians also started remotely mining all the access roads to the front line. Yes, their infantry are bums, but they have an advantage in means and numbers. We simply had no one and nothing to fight with.’"

The capture of Ugledar in Donetsk Oblast did not give the Russian army anything in strategic terms, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces merely shortened their front line in a secondary area for them. This was written 11 October 2024 in his Telegram channel by former FSB officer Igor Girkin-Strelkov, who was convicted in Russia. He noted that the Ukrainian army, holding on to the Kursk region of the Russian Federation and Vovchansk in the Kharkov region, as well as in the Donbass, has been implementing the strategy of "territory in exchange for time" for 2.5 years: "On our side, there is a tactical gain, which, in fact, is completely "in the shadow" of the strategic loss of time and wasted forces. The hopes of some "optimists" that the US will "distract" itself by defending Israel and "abandon" the Ukrainians are completely groundless - they will NOT abandon them. I continue to expect the "next move" of the Ukrainians." Ukraine continued to stubbornly transfer its units from Donbass to the Kursk region, despite the ongoing loss of positions there and the long-term lack of success in the border area. Apparently, the Ukrainian command finally decided to exchange Pokrovsk and Toretsk for holding Pyaterochka in Sudzha.

Kyiv knows of 93 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POW) who were summarily executed by Russian soldiers on the battlefield throughout the full-scale war, a senior representative of the Prosecutor General's Office said on national television on 04 October 2024.

To end the war in Ukraine in 2025, hard diplomatic work is needed, which will include improving the situation at the front and military-diplomatic efforts to implement the Peace Plan. This was stated in an interview October 11, 2024 for OBOZ.UA by former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko. According to him, weather conditions may also influence the end of the war in 2025, since with the onset of winter it will be much more difficult to attack than to defend:

"If now, on the one hand, we provide the Ukrainian Defense Forces with powerful and rapid supplies, and on the other hand, we strengthen mobilization in order to replenish, first of all, the brigades that are fighting on the contact line, and also to form reserve brigades, then this year it will be possible to resolve the issue of stabilizing the front, that is, to stop the enemy's advance and move on to forming reserve brigades, creating a resource for de-occupation processes. And this will encourage Russia to move to the negotiation process."

Bloomberg cited officials close to NATO as saying that Ukraine’s allies are detecting that Zelenskyy may be getting ready to adopt a more flexible approach as they strive to bring an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Zelenskyy is under growing pressure from Western partners to find a path toward a negotiated settlement, according to FT. There is a widespread sense that a Kamala Harris administration would ultimately be in favor of negotiations and winding down the war, however difficult it might be to provide the requisite security guarantees for Ukraine, according to FT.

Russian military gunned down nine more Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Kursk region, as reported by DeepState. On 10 October 2024, Russians undressed and shot at point-blank the drone operators in the area of Zelyonyi Shlyah. The Ukrainians surrendered according to the rules of war.

On October 13, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stated that Russia and the DPRK are "increasing the alliance" and it is not only about the supply of weapons that are used against Ukraine, but also about the "handover of people" to the Russian troops. Already on October 14, Zelenskyi said that North Korea "actually joined" the war against Ukraine. On October 14, the head of Russia, Vladimir Putin, submitted to the Russian State Duma for consideration a draft on the ratification of the treaty on "comprehensive strategic partnership" between the Russian Federation and North Korea. Russia and the DPRK signed this treaty on June 19, 2024. The State Duma ratified the agreement on October 24. Andrew Perpetua noted 27 October 2024: "Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by U\ukriane. In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense. There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.

"Zelensky knew the problems here, they were publicly known. He should have, and it was his duty as commander, to go to these places and see the issues to understand them and do everything in his power to correct them. But he didn't. In the past I have said it is Zelenskyi's job to be president, not to be a diplomat. And I got a lot of pushback from people saying "no, being a diplomat is the most valuable thing he has to do." Now do you see? Now do you see what happens when the President refuses to do his job? "

Snow will reduce the effect of unpredictability at the front due to the fact that traces of equipment and people will become visible, worse visibility will complicate the work of drones. Oleksandr Danylenko, the head of the media interaction group of the "Hart" border brigade, told about this on Suspilnoy 27 October 2024. "In case of snow, it will be much more difficult to hide movement. Human traces and traces of machinery will be clearly visible in the snow. The effect of unexpectedness becomes much smaller. In addition, bad weather makes it difficult for drones to operate due to reduced visibility. This, in turn, complicates the targeting of artillery and mortars, because currently reconnaissance drones help them a lot in this. And we understand it, and the Russians are preparing for it. Also, when it is cold, it is very clearly visible through the thermal imagers of people and equipment, due to the high temperature difference. Not so in the summer, because the earth warms up. It will also make changes in tactics....

"Recently, we have had no cases of Russians being captured. Offered to them when they are in a losing situation, but they refuse. They say: "Our commanders told us that you do not take prisoners," so they fight to the last.

The Russians launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk, on a 70 kilometers wide front. The attack has breached Ukrainian defences in just a few days in many areas, and there can be some dangerous developments ahead.

Heavy fighting continued 28 October 2024 across the front lines of Ukraine. Russia's Defense Ministry says its forces had taken control of the village of Izmailivka in Ukraine's heavily embattled Donetsk region on Sunday, taking the lives of up to 770 Ukrainian soldiers. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Armed Forces said on Saturday that Kyiv forces had repelled 36 Russian attacks along the Pokrovsk frontline in the previous day. The news comes after North Korea surprisingly sent thousands of its highly trained troops in support of Russia's military. Pundits warn that North Korean units joining the fight would stoke the almost three-year war and bring geopolitical consequences as far away as the Indo-Pacific region.

Russia gained more territory in October 2024 than in any month since July 2022, to include 160+ square miles in the Donetsk region. According to ISW estimates, the Russian armed forces made a net gain of 206 square miles between Sept. 30, 2024, and Oct. 31, 2024. Russian gains acknowledged by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT project included the seizures of Levadne, Hirnyk, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Selydove, Vyshneve, and Zoryane. Capture of Selydove gave the Russian army tactical access to Pokrovsk, which is a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. During October 2024 Russia suffered record losses of personnel, armored vehicles and artillery systems. The monthly tally of killed and wounded for October 2024 reached 40,520, the highest of Putin's full-scale invasion, beating the previous record of 38,940 in May this year. Ukraine says it's figures are "approximate".

That is to say, the butcher's bill was about 200 KIA/WIA per square mile, and about 7 square miles per day, about 75 KIA/WIA per square kilometer and about 18 square kilometer per day. Ukraine's total geographic area is 233,100 square miles (603,700 square kilometers). This makes it the second largest country in Europe by area, after Russia. So, in dog years, the direct military occupation of the remainder of Ukraine could require Russian troops at this rate to spend another 33,539 days [a bit less than 92 years, with victory arriving in the year 2116], at a cost of about 45,300,000 KIA/WIA, give or take.