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Russo-Ukraine War - December 2024

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Trump’s advisers presented him with three plans for resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Reuters has reported, citing several sources close to the US president-elect. Despite certain differences, all of the proposals include Kiev ceding territory to Moscow and giving up on its aspiration to join NATO, the agency said in an article on Wednesday. A former Trump national security official, involved in the ongoing government transition in the US, has told Reuters that one of the plans came from the president-elect’s incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg. The other two were authored by Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and Trump’s former acting intelligence chief, Richard Grenell, respectively.

Trump had yet to convene a central working group to flesh out a unified peace plan, four advisers told the agency on condition of anonymity. The deal between Moscow and Kiev will likely depend on direct personal engagement between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, the advisers stressed. During his presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed that he would end the fighting between Moscow and Kiev within 24 hours if he is reelected, but never explained how exactly he was going to achieve this.

Zelensky, who previously vigorously rejected the possibility of making any concessions to Moscow, had recently softened his stance on the issue. He told Kyodo News that Ukraine “could even cede some territories, which we cannot return today” to Russia and try getting them back through diplomatic means later. The Ukrainian leader also insisted that guaranteed NATO membership for Kiev must be a condition for signing a truce, as it will put Ukraine in “a strong position” in the event that a new conflict breaks out with Russia.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s readiness to look for a diplomatic solution. For it to be achieved, the “root causes” of the conflict must be eliminated, including NATO’s eastward expansion and “systematic” violations of the rights of Russian speakers by the Kiev government, he said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine needs to begin conscripting men as young as 18 to succeed on the battlefield against Russia. The current minimum age set by Kiev for draftees is 25. Washington and its allies have long been pushing Ukraine to lower its mobilization age to replace its losses of personnel on the battlefield. Blinken made the remarks on 04 December 2024 in an interview with Reuters at NATO headquarters in Brussels, after attending a two-day meeting of the military bloc’s foreign ministers.

The top US diplomat said that Kiev has “hard decisions” to make about further mobilization. “Getting younger people into the fight, we think, many of us think, is necessary,” Blinken stated. “Right now, 18- to 25-year-olds are not in the fight,” he said, noting it is up to Kiev to decide how best to get them into frontline operations. He reiterated the call at a press meeting, claiming that manpower is critical, “because even with the money, even with the munitions, there have to be people on the front lines.”

Dmitry Litvin, an aide to Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, had said that the US call to replenish the country’s fighting forces with young men “does not make sense” and that Washington should instead focus on sending the firepower it has promised Kiev as quickly as possible.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-Louisian) is opposed to a new $24 billion request from the White House. The US House of Representatives will not consider President Joe Biden’s request to include $24 billion in additional aid to Ukraine in a government funding bill, Speaker Johnson said. In the absence of a formal budget, the US government has been funded through “continuing resolutions” periodically approved by Congress. The White House has requested the $24 billion as part of its latest proposed legislation, which the House would need to adopt before adjourning for Christmas holidays.

“I’m not planning to do that,” Johnson said on Wednesday, at a press conference on Capitol Hill. “It is not the place of Joe Biden to make that decision now.” The Louisiana Republican reminded reporters that he had predicted Donald Trump’s election would change the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and make further US funding unnecessary, adding that this is precisely what’s been happening in recent weeks. “We have a newly-elected president and we’re going to wait and take the new commander-in-chief’s direction on all of that,” Johnson said. “So I don’t expect any Ukraine funding to come up now.”

Volodymyr Dacenko, a columnist in Forbes Ukraine, noted 11 December 2024 "The battle of Pokrov became the biggest battle of this war. But it also became one of the largest battles in history in terms of the number of armored vehicles lost. 2/ In the battles near Pokrovsk, Ru losses are close to the number of the entire Western Military District of the Ru Fed as of 2022, which was being prepared for war with NATO. And this is about 60% of the forces with which Russia planned to seize Ukraine in three days in 2022. In October 2023, Ru defined the offensive on Pokrovsk as the main axis of its offensive campaign. Obviously, Putin is focused on the goal of completely capturing the Donetsk region as the highest priority goal in the coming years. But this offensive led to colossal losses. During the first few weeks of the offensive, Russian losses were estimated at 13,000 soldiers. In February 2024, Russian losses were estimated at 47,000 soldiers killed and wounded.

"In the future, the dynamics of battles in this direction did not decrease. Under this dynamic, Russia's total losses for 13 months of fighting in the Pokrovsky direction amount to about 150,000 soldiers killed and wounded. This is more than Russia's losses in the battles for Bakhmut (100,000).... Russia lost more tanks at Pokrovsk than any country in Europe has in its army. Or more soldiers than the entire Armed Forces of the United Kingdom.... Russian losses of armored vehicles at Pokrovsk are greater than the losses of the German army in the Battle of Stalingrad. The Battle of Pokrov may become one of the largest offensives in history in terms of the number of armored vehicles lost..."

By 21 December 2024 Russia's counter-offensive against the Ukrainian-occupied salient in Kursk oblast continues with tactical gains in territorial control observed in the last week. In the north-western corner of the salient, Russian forces have advanced up to 4km south-east along a front of approximately 4km, contesting the village of Kruglen'koe. In the south-eastern corner of the salient, Russian forces have advanced west approximately 2km from the town of Plekhovo and remain near the outskirts of Makhnovka, approximately 3km to the north.

Ukrainian forces control approximately 480 sq km of Russian territory, down from approximately 510 sq km a week ago, and a high point of 800-900 sq km in August 2024. The recent loss of territory is likely due to Russian counterattacks being led by Naval Infantry, Airborne (VDV) forces and troops from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Ukraine's incursion into Kursk, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is the first time since the Second World War that foreign troops have occupied Russian territory. Russia will almost certainly continue carrying out limited attacks to reduce the amount of territory in Kursk oblast under Ukrainian control.

At the discussions at the home of NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte in Brussels on 25 December 2024, Polish President Andrzej Duda called for the EU to confiscate and spend the €260bn worth of Russian sovereign assets immobilised at European financial institutions an idea promoted by the US and UK but resisted by Germany, France and Italy. 'You don't understand how this would affect the stability of our financial markets,' Scholz barked across the table at Duda, startling other leaders present, according to three people briefed on the discussions. 'You don't even use the euro!'"

Russia is not satisfied with the proposal of the team of US President-elect Donald Trump to postpone Ukraine's membership in NATO for 20 years and the deployment of EU and British peacekeepers to its territory. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov 29 December 2024. He noted that, according to information from various sources and Trump's interview with The Times magazine on December 12, the new US president is talking about freezing hostilities on the front lines and transferring responsibility for the conflict with Russia to European countries. "We, of course, are not satisfied with the proposals made on behalf of representatives of the president-elect's team - to postpone Ukraine's membership in NATO for 20 years, as well as to introduce a peacekeeping contingent of British and European forces into Ukraine," Lavrov said.



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