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Russo-Ukraine War - February 2024

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A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

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Russia sends soldiers into meat assaults, but does not take back corpses.

Despite the huge American and Western aid amounting to more than $100 billion during 2023, its counterattack - which was much promoted - ended in great disappointment after Russia repelled it, and the Ukrainian army did not succeed in regaining the territory controlled by Moscow, which is estimated at a fifth of Ukrainian territory. If Kiev receives a large boost of US aid in 2024, as President Biden hoped, it may still have to consolidate its power and absorb the relentless Russian attacks.

US President Joe Biden saaid on 04 February 2024 "The bipartisan national security agreement ... allows the United States to continue our vital work, together with partners all around the world, to stand up for Ukraine’s freedom and support its ability to defend itself against Russia’s aggression. As I have said before, if we don’t stop Putin’s appetite for power and control in Ukraine, he won’t limit himself to just Ukraine and the costs for America will rise.... I know we have our divisions at home but we cannot let partisan politics get in the way of our responsibilities as a great nation. I refuse to let that happen."

"Over the last several weeks, the Senate has been working feverishly on bipartisan legislation to ensure Israel can decisively defeat Hamas, surge humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians in Gaza, support Ukraine against Russian aggression, tackle the challenges at our Southern border and strengthen our democratic allies in the Indo-Pacific region." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies wrote in a dear colleague letter 04 February 2024. "House Republicans have released legislation that provides critical aid to Israel but irresponsibly fails to address the other national security issues that are important to the American people, as set forth above. There is reason to believe that this eleventh-hour standalone bill is a cynical attempt to undermine the Senate’s bipartisan effort, given that House Republicans have been ordered by the former president not to pass any border security legislation or assistance for Ukraine. "

The amazing thing is that there are large majorities in the House and the Senate that would support Ukraine aid, but Trump/Johnson/MAGA are so desperate to harm Ukraine and help Putin, that they are doing this. It’s not the border issue, it’s serving Putin’s interests

The representative of the Pentagon, Sabrina Singh, said 06 February 2024 that China is watching how the USA supports Ukraine in the conditions of the war unleashed by Russia. "If we flinch, the PRC will also be bold in taking even more provocative actions in the Indo-Pacific region," Singh said. "Putin will not stop in his pursuit of power and control outside Ukraine in the direction of NATO. If he attacks an Alliance ally, we will find ourselves in direct conflict (with the Russian Federation — Ed .), as we are committed to protecting every centimeter of NATO," the spokeswoman said.

US President Joe Biden on February 6 urged Congress to pass a bipartisan immigration bill that also includes aid for Ukraine as lawmakers face political pressure from Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump to scuttle it. Speaking from the White House, Biden told lawmakers to pass the measure, which he said includes much of what Republicans have demanded on the immigration matter, and send it to his desk, emphasizing the urgent need to approve the $60 billion in wartime aid for Ukraine included in the measure and stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"The clock is ticking. Every week, every month that passes without new aid for Ukraine means fewer artillery shells, fewer air-defense systems, fewer tools for Ukraine to defend itself against this Russian onslaught," Biden said. Biden called it a critical moment, saying Putin is "betting on" the United States walking away and warning that if it fails to approve aid for Ukraine, the country would be a historic mistake. "Supporting this bill is standing up to Putin. Opposing this bill is playing into his hands," he said. "The world is watching."

On 16 February 2024, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrsky, announced the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka. He explained his decision with a plan to transfer units to defense “based on the operational situation that has developed around the city.” The military commander added that the units left Avdiivka to avoid encirclement and for the sake of preserving the lives and health of the fighters. Now, according to him, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gained a foothold in more favorable positions.

The head of the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu reported to President Vladimir Putin about the complete capture of Avdeevka in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) under the control of the Center group of troops under the command of Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev . The department reports this on its Telegram channel. He said that under continuous fire from Russian troops, only separate scattered formations of fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) managed to hastily leave Avdiivka, abandoning their weapons and military equipment. Currently, measures are being taken in the village to block Ukrainian units that have left the city and settled at the Avdeevka Coke and Chemical Plant.

Russian President Vladimir Putin listened to the report of the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu and congratulated the Russian military on their success and important victory.

Ukraine is paying a heavy price for such a step-by-step approach. Time is not on Ukraine's side. So when we tell Ukraine that we will be with it as long as it takes, it is not enough. We have to be with Ukraine in such a number that it will be necessary... And this was not our practice in the last two years. We gave Ukraine enough not to lose, but not enough to win, and that has to change." emphasized the US Ambassador to NATO in 2013-17, Lieutenant General Douglas Lute.

According to General Lute, this year the US should provide Ukraine with high-precision, long-range strike systems of the necessary quantity and quality "to isolate Russian forces ... by attacking their command, strike forces and logistics capabilities." According to him, measures to increase long-range strikes will help protect the Ukrainian civilian population and infrastructure: "It is impossible to protect Ukrainian cities from an air attack only at the point of arrival, it is necessary to bring this protection to the starting positions, whether in occupied Ukraine or even, in my opinion, on the territory of Russia"

"Russian troops are low-skilled forces that sit behind very deep and effective defensive positions. We have to break through that defense and attack their weaknesses while avoiding their strengths." according to General Lute, who stated long-range strike systems will make it possible to take advantage of the weak points of the Russian troops, "their indiscipline, lack of cohesion, poor leadership, poor logistics."

The general emphasized that Russian logistics are very vulnerable to long-range precision strikes: "Russia has always had an army that depended on railway logistics. The railway is a permanent target. It can be attacked, then attacked again, repair crews can be attacked, and significantly hamper Russian logistics, isolate it and render the Russian occupiers incapable. Iconic here is the Kerch bridge and the railway, which supplies Crimea and allows the Russian occupation to continue."

According to General Lüte, a long-term strike campaign could reinforce the weaknesses of the Russian army, isolating it and making it unsustainable: "Long-range strike systems like the American ATACMS and the German Taurus are available and effective if we provide them in sufficient numbers."

If the issue of providing Ukraine with adequate means of air defense is not resolved, it will lead to Russia's victory in the war, according to Roger Zackheim, director of the Washington-based Ronald Reagan Institute. "We need to continue to support the Ukrainians so that they have a chance to win, otherwise they will lose. One of the reasons the additional funding should be approved is because it helps strengthen air defense in terms of providing Patriot systems ," the analyst said during a panel discussion at the Atlantic Council. Also, according to Zackheim, the victory of Ukraine requires aviation, primarily F-16 fighters. At the same time, the director of the Reagan Institute believes that Ukraine should have the right to strike on Russian territory.

"F-16 should hit targets on the territory of Russia... This (Ukraine's acquisition of F-16s - ed.) will have a significant impact on the battlefield if they are allowed to target Russian positions not only on the Ukrainian side of the border, but also on the other side of the border... This is a proportional, consistent right of armed forces conflict, the ability to target the enemy when they target you from their sovereign territory.” At the same time, Roger Zackheim noted that if the rule of not hitting targets on Russian territory is applied to the work of Ukrainians with F-16 fighters, it will be a "recipe for losing" Ukraine in the war.

By the time of the fall of Avdiivka on 18 February 2024, Russia launched a general offensive all along the front. Days short of the second anniversary of the initial onslaught on 22 February 2924, there were no big announcements from the Russian Federation.

"It will be difficult for us in March-April. We will go through a period of various waves: political, financial, and various pressures. Russia will prepare counteroffensive actions at the beginning of summer or at the end of May, if they can. They will prepare. We will prepare for their fight," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed. This is how Zelenskyy answered a Latvian journalist's question during a press conference at the "Ukraine. Year 2024" forum, which took place on 25 February 2024. "The turning point will be the elections in the USA, and we will understand what will happen after that. We will be able to hold the first summit and at least do everything to prepare a document for the whole world that can lead to the end of the war," the head of state emphasized. Earlier, at a press conference, Zelenskyy called the third year of a full-scale war a "turning point" . According to the head of state, the format of the end of hostilities may depend on 2024.

This was stated 22 February 2024 by Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev did not rule out that Russia could “reach Kiev” and said that Russia was “waiting for it” for Odessa to join the country. Medvedev stated this during an interview with Russian media. In particular, he said that Russia has been waiting for the “return of Odessa,” and declared the city’s historical affiliation with the aggressor country. “Odessa, come home, we’ve been waiting for Odessa in the Russian Federation. Even because of the history of this city, what kind of people live there, what language they speak, this is our Russian city,” Medvedev said.

Russian troops will still be able to occupy the Ukrainian capital, Medvedev believes. This may be necessary to “achieve the objectives of the special operation.” He also told journalists about the need to destroy the “Kiev regime.” “The Kiev regime must be destroyed, it must not remain in this world,” the politician said. The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council also spoke about those Ukrainians who are waiting for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They harm the Russian state, so they should be “re-educated,” the politician believes. “If these are people who harm Russia, they must be exposed and punished, sent to Siberia,” Medvedev said.

While there was no consensus about sending ground forces, French President Emmanuel Macron said on 26 February 2024 following a pro-Ukraine summit in Paris that “in terms of dynamics, we cannot exclude anything” in the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. The UK, Poland, Czech Republic, Finland, and Sweden all spoke up on 27 February 2024 against Macron’s suggestion that Western troops could be deployed to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was even more categorical, declaring that there will be “no ground troops, no soldiers on Ukrainian soil, who are sent there by European or NATO countries” in the future.

Estonia is “not afraid” of Russia and thinks sending NATO ground troops to Ukraine ought to be under consideration, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told Sky News in an interview aired on 28 February 2024. So far, only Estonia and Lithuania have expressed any enthusiasm for the idea of escalating NATO support to Kiev beyond deliveries of weapons, ammunition, and money. “We shouldn’t be afraid of our own power. Russia is saying this or that step is escalation, but defense is not escalation,” Kallas told Sky. “I’m saying we should have all options on the table. What more can we do in order to really help Ukraine win?”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during an annual address to the nation 29 February 2024, two weeks ahead of the presidential election, praised Russian troops fighting in Ukraine as “courageous” warriors who would not back down. “I look at these courageous people, sometimes very young guys, and without any exaggeration I can say my heart fills with pride. They will not back down, will not fail and will not betray,” Putin said.

His comments also came with the Kremlin revelling in its recent gains in Ukraine, an economy that has defied the devastating effects of sanctions, and signs of Western support for Ukraine becoming strained. On the war in Ukraine, Putin said the Russian army had increased its combat capabilities and is “confidently” advancing across the front line. “Today, when our homeland is defending its sovereignty and security and protecting the lives of our fellow countrymen in Donbas and Novorossiya [ed = regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed], the decisive role in this righteous struggle belongs to our citizens, our unity, devotion to our native country and responsibility for its fate,” he said.