Russo-Ukraine War - 17 March 2022
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"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine in response to the appeal of the leaders of the "Donbass republics" for help. That attack is a blatant violation of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. Putin stressed that Moscow's goal is the demilitarization and denazification of the country.
Moscow cannot take into account the decision of the International Court of Justice, which demanded an immediate halt to the military operation in Ukraine, said Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President. "No, we will not be able to take this decision into account. The international court has such a thing as the consent of the parties. There can be no agreement here. In this case, this is something that we cannot take into account," he stressed. Peskov called Biden’s characterisation of Putin as a war criminal “unacceptable and unforgivable rhetoric”.
“He is a war criminal,” Biden told reporters in Washington, referring to the Russian leader. The US president was simply answering a “direct question” White House press secretary Jen Psaki later said. “We have all seen barbaric acts, horrific acts by a foreign dictator in a country that is threatening and taking the lives of civilians, impacting hospitals, women who are pregnant, journalists, others,” she told reporters.
US Secretary of State Antony Binken says he agrees with President Joe Biden that ‘war crimes’ have been committed in Ukraine. “Yesterday, President Biden said that – in his opinion – war crimes have been committed in Ukraine. Personally, I agree,” Blinken told reporters. “Intentionally targeting civilians is a war crime. After all the destruction of the past three weeks I find it difficult to conclude that the Russians are doing otherwise.”
The economic consequences of the Russian military operation in Ukraine will affect the whole world, said US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. According to him, the consequences "are felt around the world in rising food prices, concerns about [supplies] of food, fuel." "These are serious problems that the world community needs to urgently solve," he said.
Russia's Finance Ministry says it had sent interest payments on its dollar-denominated sovereign bonds for transfer to creditors. The ministry said that it ordered the transfer of about 117 million dollars in coupon payments that were due on 16 March 2022. Russia had said it planned to repay debt in rubles as almost half of its foreign reserve holdings remain frozen as part of international sanctions imposed for the invasion of Ukraine. But the value of the ruble has been tumbling. Credit ratings agencies may deem payments in the currency as a default, citing the unilateral change in payment terms. The March 16 deadline for sovereign bond repayments has a grace period of 30 days -- but more interest payments are due at the end of the month. The ratings agencies say Russia is likely to buckle, with a default coming as early as April.
The war between Ukraine and Russia, two of the world’s top crop producers, will likely lead to a food crisis in the next 12-18 months in Africa and the Middle East, French President Emmanuel Macron said. Ukraine, along with southwestern Russia, has long been known as “Europe’s breadbasket” thanks to the region's rich dark soil, chernozem, among the most fertile in the world. The region accounts “for about 15 percent of the world’s wheat production, and nearly 30 percent of world exports,” Sébastien Abis, a researcher at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) and director for the Deemeter Club think tank, which specialises in global agricultural issues, told FRANCE 24. “But it’s not just wheat,” Abis said, “the two countries account for 80 percent of the world’s sunflower oil production, and Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest exporter of maize.”
Slovakia is ready to abandon the only S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in the country and transfer it to Ukraine if it receives air defense systems in return, said Defense Minister Yaroslav Nagy.
Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin was asked about the possible transfer of air defense systems to Ukrainian military personnel. "We are consulting with a number of our allies and partners to make sure we get as much capacity as possible to continue assisting the Ukrainian forces. <...> These consultations will continue, but I have nothing to announce [about the S-300]" - said the American minister.
Austin also noted that there is no possibility of establishing any "lite version" of the no-fly zone. "A no-fly zone means that you are in conflict with Russia. Our position <...> is still that we will not do this," the head of the Pentagon stressed.
Russian forces continue to regroup near the large cities in preparations for upcoming attacks. Ukrainian Army conducted several successful counter-attacks and destroyed a number of Russian equipment.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has largely stalled on all fronts, with Russian forces suffering heavy losses and making minimal progress on land, sea or air in recent days, British military intelligence said. “Ukrainian resistance remains staunch and well-coordinated,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence said. “The vast majority of Ukrainian territory, including all major cities, remains in Ukrainian hands.”
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Frank Ledwidge, senior lecturer in military capabilities and strategy at the University of Portsmouth, said Russia’s attack “has, in military terms, culminated”. He added “Essentially, that they’ve gone as far as they can with the logistics and weaponry they brought into the country – that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s stalled”.
“What we’re seeing now is what’s called an operational pause as they start to get, in colloquial terms, their act together, which they have not had largely due to very poor planning assumptions in the early part of the campaign. So they’d be working frantically to try to get weapons and get their planning sorted out and to understand where does it go next. And of course, Ukrainians have a say in that, which is why we are starting to see counterattacks by Ukrainian armed forces that seem to be having some effect.”
The British Ministry of Defence says Russia’s failure to control Ukrainian airspace means it has probably expended far more stand-off air-launched weapons than originally planned. “As a result, it is likely Russia is resorting to the use of older, less precise weapons, which are less militarily effective and more likely to result in civilian casualties,” the ministry said in its latest intelligence update.
Despite US assertions that Russia is facing major military and logistic setbacks in its invasion of Ukraine, Putin said the operation was unfolding “successfully, in strict accordance with pre-approved plans”. Putin said the West’s “economic blitzkrieg” against Moscow has failed, while admitting the situation is “not easy” for Russians.
During the day, the Russian armed forces advanced 10 km during the special operation, said the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov. "The armed forces of the Russian Federation, continuing their successful offensive, took control of the settlements of Novomayorskoye and Prechistovka. The advance in a day was 10 km," he said.
In Kyiv Oblast, according to Ukrainian Army, Russian forces were preparing to storm and capture Vyshorod and the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power plant nearby. The enemy forces attempted to gain new grounds on the western bank of Dnieper towards Kyiv, but they weren’t successful. On the eastern bank, Russian Army amass troops in the area of Bohdanivka. In Sumy Oblast, enemy forces paused all offensive operations in the area and focus on establishing supply routes for forwarded units and regrouping its forces in the rear. Sumy, Lebedyn and Okhtyrka remains besieged. Russian forces struggled to advance deeper into the city in the western part of Mariupol.
Russian operational-tactical, army and unmanned aircraft destroyed 11 Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems, including the S-300 division, said Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov. "Operational-tactical, army and unmanned aircraft hit 46 military facilities of Ukraine. Among them: 11 anti-aircraft missile systems, including the S-300 division, one installation of a multiple launch rocket system, three command posts, one electronic warfare station, seven ammunition depots and 18 places of accumulation of military equipment," he said.
Operational-tactical, army and unmanned aircraft hit 29 Ukrainian military facilities, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Also, Russian aviation and air defense shot down one Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter in the air near the village of Belki, as well as five drones. - In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 182 Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters, 177 UAVs and 1,393 tanks have been destroyed.
Su-25 attack aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed warehouses with weapons and ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at night. "The crews of the Su-25 attack aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed warehouses with weapons and ammunition. Flights for combat use were carried out at night," the Russian Defense Ministry said.
US officials told the New York Times that Russia’s military has lost more than 7,000 soldiers in its three-week invasion of Ukraine. The officials cautioned that the number is inexact, and compiled through analysis of news media, Ukrainian figures, Russian figures, satellite imagery and perusal of video images of Russian tanks and troops that have come under fire.
Ukraine’s defence ministry said that Russia has lost some 14,000 servicemen, including about 200 in the past 24 hours. It also said that Ukrainian forces destroyed 444 Russian tanks, 1435 armoured vehicles, 86 planes, 108 helicopters, 11 drones and three ships. It said the figures were approximate and their verification was “complicated” by the high intensity of the fighting. Ukraine’s Air Force said that it has shot down three Russian Su-30M bombers, one Su-34 bomber and one plane that yet had to be identified. It also said that two helicopters and one drone were shot down, while air defence forces shot down one more Su-34 bomber and one more helicopter.
Human Rights Watch said the Mariupol theatre hit during an alleged Russian attack was sheltering at least 500 civilians. In satellite imagery of the theater from March 14, the Russian word for “children” clearly appears written twice in large Cyrillic script in front and behind the theater. Some 130 civilians had so far been rescued from the bombed-out theatre in Mariupol, according to a Ukrainian parliamentarian. “Good news that we need so urgently. The air raid shelter under the theatre of Mariupol has stood up to it. Around 130 people have already been saved,” Olga Stefanishyna stated. “After a terrible night of uncertainty, on the morning of the 22nd day of the war finally good news from Mariupol! The bomb shelter has held,” wrote member of parliament Serhiy Taruta.
Residents of the Kherson region of Ukraine liberated by Russian troops, bordering Crimea, are planned to be paid pensions and salaries in rubles, said the head of the republic, Sergei Aksyonov. “There is practically a humanitarian catastrophe in the Kherson region, which borders us. Kyiv abandoned people. I know that the authorized authorities are dealing, among other things, with the payment of pensions and salaries, so that this happens in rubles. Now the process is proceeding gradually, we don’t have the hryvnia, but money is needed," Aksyonov said.
Russia will not stop or suspend the special operation in Ukraine until the agreement is initialed as a result of the dialogue, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko believes. "As soon as the treaty is initialed, which is being developed on the basis of the negotiations that are underway in Belarus. As soon as the foreign ministers initial this treaty, a ceasefire is possible. But I am absolutely convinced that Russia will not stop or suspend the operation until the treaty was initialed," he said.
A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky could take place after the completion of work on the agreement, possibly within the next few weeks, Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President's Office, said. "As soon as work on the agreement is completed, we will start organizing a meeting," he said, stressing that "this will happen within the next weeks."
The Kremlin said that the report in the Financial Times about a supposed 15-point draft peace plan with Ukraine was false. Replying to a reporter's question if Russia and Ukraine were close to sign a peace deal, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, said: “No, the work continues [on the matter].”
The two countries disagreed on the exact model of neutrality, with the Ukraine side saying that it had rejected Russia's proposal of Sweden's or Austria's neutrality, as the model must be "Ukrainian-style." Chinese experts thought Washington was attempting to make the negotiations last longer, which will cause more costs and losses for Russia. Russia's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said that Ukraine had proposed the Austrian and Swedish models of a "neutral and demilitarized state, albeit with its own army and navy," Russian media reported. However, the model was rejected by Ukrainian top negotiator Mikhailo Podolyak, as the model must have "legally verified security guarantees."
For Ukraine, avoiding the repetition of today's crisis is the lesson it learned, especially considering the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 on Security Assurance (in which the US, the UK and Russia promised to offer security assurance to Ukraine in exchange for Kiev agreeing to give up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal) failed to work. Ukrainian-style neutrality would require the US, the other major Western countries and regions, and Russia to provide more explicit and detailed security guarantees, including clarification of future threats to territorial and sovereign integrity.
Russia is pretending to negotiate with Ukraine, while pursuing the invasion of its neighbor in line with a brutal strategy it has used elsewhere, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has said. “Unfortunately we’re still facing the same Russian logic – making maximalist demands, wanting Ukraine to surrender and intensifying siege warfare”.
“Just as in and Aleppo (in Syria), there are three typical elements – indiscriminate bombardment, so-called humanitarian “corridors” designed to allow them to accuse the other side of failing to respect them, and talks with no objective other than pretending that they are negotiating.”
About 3.2 million people have fled Ukraine, according to data released by the United Nations. While the numbers arriving in the front-line states – Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova – have slowed in recent days, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he expected a “bigger wave” next week.
While fighting in Mariupol continues, residents have evacuated through the district controlled by the forces of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk. A statement from the city council said that about 30,000 residents had managed to escape so far since Monday, but more than 350,000 remained.
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