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Russo-Ukraine War - 12 March 2022

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On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine in response to the appeal of the leaders of the "Donbass republics" for help. That attack is a blatant violation of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. Putin stressed that Moscow's plans did not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, the goal is the demilitarization and denazification of the country. As stated in the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian military does not strike at cities, but disable only the military infrastructure, so nothing threatens the civilian population.

It is reported that director of FSB 5th department Sergey Beseda and his deputy are under house arrest. They are charged with embezzlement and "low quality intelligence data" he provided. Beseda hugely exaggerated pro-Russian sentiments and lied to Putin regarding the prospects of invasion. Putin's assumptions were wrong. He launched the invasion expecting no resistance. The 5th Department of FSB, which worked on Ukraine, reported to Putin that in Ukraine everyone would switch to Russia upon arrival. They told Putin whatever he wanted to hear.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, thousands of images showing Russian soldiers and vehicles have emerged online. Some of these images shocked viewers when they saw the flag of the Soviet Union waving on some Russian military equipment. For residents of Ukraine, a former part of the Soviet Union, the flag may represent an expression of a desire to repress them. After all, the Donbas republics are called “people’s republics” – the same terminology that the Soviets used in controlling foreign states within their empire.

Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a “thug” and denigrated the Ukrainian government. “Remember that Zelensky is a thug,” Cawthorn said. “Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and it is incredibly evil and it has been pushing woke ideologies. It really is the new woke world empire.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky during communication with foreign media : "About 1,300 military people died in our country, and in Russia - more than 12 thousand. One to ten. I'm not happy that 12 thousand of them died. This is not my vision of the world." According to preliminary estimates, since the beginning of a full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia has already lost 362 tanks and more than 1,200 armored fighting vehicles. “If there are hundreds of thousands of people, who are now being mobilized by Russia, and they come with hundreds or thousands of tanks, they will take Kyiv. We understand that,” said Zelensky, who also noted that Russia was sending new troops to Ukraine after suffering what he said were Moscow's biggest losses in decades.

Zelenskyy demanded the release of the mayor of the southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol. The Ukrainian parliament earlier said civic leader Ivan Fedorov was seen being taken away by Russian soldiers occupying the city. Fedorov had reportedly refused to cooperate with the occupying forces. Zelenskyy confirmed the abduction, calling Fedorov "a mayor who bravely defends Ukraine and the members of his community." He said it revealed Russian weakness, and was a crime against democracy.

“We don’t rule out a diplomatic solution to this war,” says Poland’s Ambassador to the US Magierowski, but the ball’s in Putin’s court. But, he adds, “Russia is losing this war right now... Maybe the military solution and defeating the Russian army in Ukraine is the way out.”

Despite initial fears, Russia has not achieved air supremacy in Ukraine; neither have its aircraft destroyed the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Analysts tried to explain why the Russian Air Force has not been properly employed. According to RUSI, “an initial analysis of the possible reasons for this identified potential Russian difficulties with deconfliction between ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, a lack of precision-guided munitions and limited numbers of pilots with the requisite expertise to conduct precise strikes in support of initial ground operations due to low average VKS flying hours.”

Russian troops could target supplies of Western weapons in Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. Ryabkov told Channel One Russia, a popular Russian-controlled TV channel, that they "warned the United States that the orchestrated pumping of weapons from a number of countries is not just a dangerous move, it is a move that turns these convoys into legitimate targets." The spokesman added that Russia had warned "about the consequences of the thoughtless transfer to Ukraine of weapons like man-portable air defence systems, anti-tank missile systems and so on." He added that Washington has not taken the warning seriously.

The Russian military acknowledged that civilians are facing increasing hardship in Ukraine, but blamed Kyiv and far-right Ukrainian militias for the deterioration. "Unfortunately, the humanitarian situation in Ukraine is rapidly getting worse, and in some cities it has reached catastrophic levels," Russian general Mikhail Mizintsev told reporters during a daily briefing. Mizintsev blamed Ukrainian authorities for "criminal and treacherous acts" which force civilians in cities besieged by Russia to live without heat, electricity, fresh water, medicine, and food.

Bill Browder noted "There are two objective data points that Putin is flailing in Ukraine. First is him starting to arrest his own people in a sign of scapegoating and desperation. The second is the call out to foreign mercenaries to replace his dead soldiers." Tim O'Brien noted "Putin is keeping Russia’s stock exchange closed all of next week because that’s more comfy than admitting that his Ukraine war and sanctions caused the Russian market to implode.”

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reported that Russians are trying to organize a sham separatist ‘referendum’ in Kherson, mimicking what they did in eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014. "Following 2014 playbook, Russians now desperately try to organize a sham ‘referendum’ for a fake ‘people’s republic’ in Kherson. Given zero popular support, it will be fully staged. Severe sanctions against Russia must follow if they proceed. Kherson is & will always be Ukraine."

Damien Symon reported "As Russia's operations slow down around Kyiv, tempo in southern Ukraine appears to be increasing... No major changes have been noted on the Kyiv fronts in recent days. In the south, Russian forces have been pushing north from the town of Nova Kakhovka towards the town of Kryvyi Rih. Ukrainian forces have been able to limit Russian advances."

Russian forces appeared to make progress from northeast Ukraine in their slow fight to reach Kyiv while heavy shelling continued elsewhere in the country. The bulk of Russian ground forces now lie about 25 kilometers (16 miles) from the center of the Ukrainian capital, according to British intelligence. "Elements of the large Russian column north of Kyiv have dispersed," the UK Defense Ministry said. "This is likely to support a Russian attempt to reduce its vulnerability to Ukrainian counter attacks, which have taken a significant toll on Russian forces." Elsewhere in Ukraine the cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remained encircled and continued to come under artillery bombardment, according to the UK ministry.

Around 70% of the Luhansk region is now occupied by Russian troops, according to Serhiy Haidai, the governor of Luhansk Oblast. Areas that remained under the control of Kyiv faced an artillery bombardment, resulting in the deaths of dozens of civilians, while many more have been wounded. The eastern Ukrainian town of Volnovakha has been destroyed but the city remains under Ukrainian control and fighting is ongoing to prevent a Russian encirclement, Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said. While the Ukrainian forces said they have almost destroyed a Russian battalion near Mariupol, the city remains under heavy Russian bombardment – including on civilian infrastructure.

Efforts by Russian forces to launch an offensive to the northeast of the capital Kyiv have been "partially successful," the Ukrainian military said. Russian units were attempting to blockade the city of Chernihiv from the southwest, and, as part of their efforts, are attempting to capture the towns of Shestovytsya and Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske.

Russia’s permanent UN representative, Vasily Nebenzya, described the alleged biological weapons plot in detail, warning that bats, birds and even insects could soon be spreading “dangerous pathogens” across Europe. Washington, Kyiv as well as the United Nations have denied the existence of biological weapons laboratories in the country. Britain’s ambassador to the UN, Barbara Woodward, said Russia had used the Security Council to utter "a series of wild, completely baseless and irresponsible conspiracy theories".