Russo-Ukraine War - 08 March 2022
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"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine in response to the appeal of the leaders of the "Donbass republics" for help. That attack is a blatant violation of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. Putin stressed that Moscow's plans did not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, the goal is the demilitarization and denazification of the country. As stated in the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian military does not strike at cities, but disable only the military infrastructure, so nothing threatens the civilian population.
Poland is ready to transfer its MiG-29 fighters to the Ramstein air base in Germany and give them at the disposal of the US government, the country's foreign ministry said in a statement. "The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America," the statement says. At the same time, Warsaw requests Washington to give it used aircraft with similar operational capabilities, being ready to immediately agree on the conditions of purchase of the planes, the ministry said. "The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein," the statement says.
Gasoline prices in the United States hit an all-time high, reaching $4.17 per gallon. The US imposed a ban on all imports of Russian oil and gas. The decision to ban the import of Russian oil and gas will hit the US itself, but Washington believes it must take this step, said US President Joe Biden. Biden urged the private sector not to inflate prices due to the consequences of sanctions against the Russian Federation, the authorities will fight speculators. The American leader also said that the United States should become an energy independent country, discussing with the EU the prospects for their rejection of oil and gas from the Russian Federation.
The UK said it will stop importing Russian oil and petroleum products by the end of 2022. London is also "exploring options to stop" Russian gas imports into the country. At the moment, the share of Russian gas in the kingdom is 4%.
Italy hopes to completely replace gas supplies from Russia in a maximum of 30 months. Minister of Ecological Modernization and Transformation of Italy Roberto Cingolani noted that "thanks to emergency measures" in the near future "15-16 billion cubic meters will be replaced by supplies from other sources."
President of the German Industrial Union Siegfried Russwurm spoke out against the embargo on the supply of energy resources from Russia. "The debate about a European embargo on energy from Russia is playing with fire," he said. "Such an embargo threatens Germany and the European Union more than the aggressor." "This import cannot be replaced overnight," Russwurm said.
According to the European Commission, gas supplies from Russia provide 40% of all gas consumption in the EU. Russia also provides 27% of EU oil imports and 46% of coal imports. The European Commission (EC) has proposed to the EU countries a plan to completely phase out coal, oil and gas from Russia, which should be implemented before 2030. This is stated in the published plan of the European Commission, which was called REPower EU. The EC also proposed to the EU countries a plan to reduce dependence on Russian gas supplies by 67% by the end of this year. The European Commission's plan emphasizes that energy prices in Europe have already become a "hot, growing problem." In addition, the EC will oblige all EU countries to fill their underground gas storage facilities by at least 90% by October 1 of each year.
A top Russian official warned that a Western ban on Russian oil imports could result in oil prices more than doubling to about $300 per barrel and prompt the closure of the main gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. In a statement on state television, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said it was “absolutely clear that a rejection of Russian oil would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global market”.
Ukrainian intelligence said a top Russian military officer has been killed in fighting near the city of Kharkiv and has released what it says are intercepted phone calls that appear to partly corroborate the death. If confirmed, Major General Vitaly Gerasimov would be the second top general to have been killed in fighting in Ukraine in recent weeks. In a statement on March 7, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate said Gerasimov, a chief of staff and first deputy commander with Russia's 41st Combined Arms Army, had been killed along with several other senior officers.
Matthew Chapman reported " Russian forces relaying the news back to their superiors were forced to use an unsecure phone line with a local sim card — that was promptly intercepted.... Era — the highly secure cryptophone system implemented last year by the Russian Ministry of Defense which is supposedly guaranteed to work "in all conditions" — is down. And the reason the system is down is that Russian forces on the front destroyed all of the nearby 3G and 4G cell towers required for the system to establish a connection."
American intelligence agencies believe that the Russian Federation underestimated the difficulties that could arise during the conduct of a special military operation in Ukraine. This statement was made by the Director of National Intelligence of the United States, Avril Haynes. “The invasion actually went according to the plan that we thought the Russian military would follow. Only they are facing much more resistance from the Ukrainians than they expected, they are having serious problems from a military point of view,” she said.
The Russian Aerospace Forces claimed to have shot down two Ukrainian MiG-29s and one Su-27. The Russian Armed Forces also disabled an airfield near Zhytomyr with high-precision weapons. In total, over the past day, bomber and attack aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces reportedly destroyed 158 military facilities on the territory of Ukraine. During the operation of the RF Armed Forces, 2,482 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine were destroyed.
Russian forces launched hundreds of missiles and artillery attacks, dropping powerful bombs on residential areas of Chernihiv, a city north of Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said. Mykolaiv in the south and Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, were also shelled. Ukrainian forces were also defending Odesa, Ukraine’s largest port city, from Russian ships. But the long Russian armored column threatening Kyiv remained stalled.
In Ukraine, the damage to transport infrastructure from hostilities was estimated at $10 billion. The Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov believes that most facilities can be repaired in a year, the restoration of complex and large facilities will take up to two years. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that Western countries will develop an analogue of the Marshall Plan for the restoration of Ukraine.
A Senior Defense Official stated in a Background Briefing : "In terms of situational awareness here, we continue to see Ukrainian resistance efforts slow down the Russians, particularly in the north. Near Kyiv, we still observe that Russian forces have not moved closer to the city center in the north and the northwest. They're -- still seem to be the closest they've been able to get is at Hostomel Airport. These are their advance ground elements that we're talking about. "Obviously, we see the -- the bombardment of Kyiv continue through long-range fires and we're certainly in no position to refute reports that there's some isolated fighting inside the city. We think these are recon elements, as well. So that -- they still haven't been able to -- to move any closer than the Hostomel Airport.
"To the east of Kyiv, we do see Russian forces now trying to make an advance. This is a -- this is a line of advance that we haven't -- haven't seen much of recently but we estimate that this line of advance -- this is a -- you all have seen reports of the violence in this town, Sumy.
"Well, just to the north of Sumy, there's been a Russian advance from the northeast, kind of skirting Chernihiv and skirting Kharkiv and kind of moving on -- on Kyiv from that direction. And we estimate that they're about 60 kilometers or so from the city. So they're still further away than the main advance coming down on the north...
"You know, we still continue to hear talk about the potential for a no-fly zone, and I think it's just important to remind that nearly all of -- of the country of Ukraine is in some way or another under the umbrella of Russian surface-to-air missile capabilities. Again, without quantifying that -- I'd rather not get into that level of detail, but the -- the -- much of the airspace of Ukraine, north and south, is under some umbrella of -- of Russian surface-to-air missile capability, and I think that's an important point to make.
"And even for all that, we still anticipate that the Russians have not achieved air superiority over the entire country, and that the -- that the Ukrainians still have at their disposal viable and effective air and missile defense, and they are still able to and are flying aircraft in that very contested airspace."
Former high-ranking State Department and Pentagon officials called on US President Joe Biden to create a "restricted no-fly zone over Ukraine." Excerpts from a corresponding letter from 27 former members of US administrations were distributed by the Politico newspaper . “President Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have said that neither the US nor NATO will engage in combat with Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine,” the authors of the document believe. “We are seeking to deploy US and NATO aircraft not in search of a confrontation with Russia , but to prevent and deter Russian bombardments that would lead to mass deaths of Ukrainians."
Ukraine says its forces have killed more than 11,000 Russian troops. Russia has confirmed about 500 losses. Neither side has disclosed Ukrainian casualties. At least 1,335 civilians have been killed or injured in Ukraine since 24 February. This was announced in Geneva by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
Ukrainian intelligence reported that mercenaries from Wagner's group are dying in the fight. The badges found on the killed soldiers are to be the proof. "By replenishing the reserves of the occupying forces, Russia is including mercenaries from private military companies in its combat operations. It is known that mercenaries from a private military company - the Wagner group, who are part of the aggressor's army - are already involved in combat operations in Ukraine," the statement said.
US intelligence agencies told Congress that they tentatively estimated that 2,000-4,000 Russian soldiers had been killed so far, but that Putin would persevere in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance. “We assess Putin feels aggrieved the west does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose,” the US director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, told the House intelligence committee.
Haines said US officials believe Putin “is unlikely to be deterred … and instead may escalate – essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament and neutrality to prevent it from further integrating with the US and Nato if it doesn’t reach some diplomatic negotiation”.
“We assess Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing, which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues and considerable logistical issues,” said Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines. She said Putin “perceives this is a war he cannot afford to lose” but his definition of victory may shift given the significant cost Russia is incurring.
CIA director, William Burns, predicted “an ugly next few weeks” in Ukraine, in which the Russian leader would escalate the war “with scant regard for civilian casualties”. Burns said “I fail to see – and our analysts fail to see – how he could sustain a puppet regime or a pro-Russian leadership that he tries to install in the face of what is a massive opposition from Ukrainian people”.
“The one thing I’m absolutely convinced of, and I think our analysts across the intelligence committee are absolutely convinced of, is the Ukrainians are going to continue to resist fiercely and effectively,” Burns told lawmakers.
Over 2 million refugees from Ukraine have already arrived in the European Union, up to half of them are children, and there will be even more. This was stated by European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson at a press conference in Strasbourg, which was broadcast online by the press service of the European Commission. "Already 2 million refugees from Ukraine have arrived. This is the same as the arrivals in 2015-2016 (during the most acute EU migration crisis from North Africa and the Middle East - TASS note). We do not borrow how many of them are children, but , according to what I saw at the checkpoints, up to half may be children. And there will be more, so we must do everything in our power," the European Commissioner said.
Moscow opened corridors to allow people to leave five Ukrainian cities: Cherhihiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol and the capital Kyiv, as well as Sumy. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that civilians will start leaving Sumy and Irpin. Earlier, Russia had announced plans for another ceasefire and opening of “humanitarian corridors” to let civilians in besieged Ukrainian cities evacuate in the direction of their choice. This came after Ukraine rejected an earlier Russian plan that proposed evacuation routes mostly to Russia and its ally, Belarus.
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