Solitudinem fecerunt,
pacem appelunt
Publius Gaius Cornelius Tacitus
Syria - Russian Intervention - 2023
"We have had the most significant escalation in hostilities since 2019," David Carden, the United Nations (UN) deputy regional humanitarian coordinator for Syria, said. The Assad regime is trying to take advantage of the current international focus on Israel and Gaza to intensify its attacks, believing that it will have more space to maneuver. Along with other Arab leaders, the Syrian government has condemned ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza. But, it may also see an opportunity to better sell its own narrative, that it is responding to terrorism in the same manner as Israel.
Most of the around 4.5 million people living in opposition-held areas in northern Syria rely on humanitarian aid, with many living in camps. The UN's Pinheiro said that the presence of the militant group Hezbollah in Syria also had an impact on that. Hezbollah, a Shiite political party and militant group, is based in Lebanon but has been fighting on behalf of the Assad regime, which is allied with one of Hezbollah's main backers, Iran. Pinheiro noted that recent Israeli airstrikes that disabled Syrian airports in Aleppo and Damascus also had an impact on the deliveries of humanitarian aid. Israel ostensibly hit the Syrian airports to prevent more fighters or weapons reaching Hezbollah in Syria.
The current spike in violence in Syria seems to have started on October 5, with an attack on a graduation ceremony at a military academy in the city of Homs, central districts of which are still controlled by Assad. Drones laden with explosives attacked a courtyard where families had gathered for the ceremony. Up to 120 were killed, with many more injured. The drones had likely come from nearby opposition-held areas and the attack was considered notable because of the way the drones had been used, and because it was the first major breach of Syrian government security in several years.
Paulo Pinheiro Chair of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, reported 24 October 2023: "we are witnessing the largest escalation of hostilities in Syria in four years. Yet again there appears to be total disregard for civilians lives in what are often tit for tat reprisals. This month alone Syrian forces retaliated after an attack on a graduation ceremony at the Homs Military Academy that killed and injured scores. In just four days of ground shelling over greater Idlib some two hundred civilians were killed and injured, and medical facilities, schools and markets impacted yet again. Tens of thousands are again displaced and on the run.
"In apparent retaliation for an attack that injured two members of Turkish security forces in Ankara on 1 October, Turkiye reportedly responded with heavy bombardments on SDF-held Hasakeh, destroying and damaging power and water stations, affecting hundreds of thousands of civilians. ... reported airstrikes by Israel on Damascus and Aleppo international airports, the second such attacks this month, put them temporarily out of action and may have yet again impacted the delivery of humanitarian aid....
" The Syrian Army and the Russian Airforce launched numerous attacks on the earthquake-impacted northwest Syria, killing and injuring civilians. Assassinations, kidnapping and arbitrary detention are on the rise in southern Syria. The killing of scores of civilians, many shot dead at point blank range, occurred in the desert of Central Syria. In north-eastern Syria we documented cases of torture and deaths in SDF custody, while more than 49,000 people, mainly women and children, still languish in inhumane conditions in Al Hawl and Al Rawj camps. Since then, the situation in Syria has worsened.
"Syria remains the world’s largest refugee crisis, with more than seven million Syrians having fled the country and more than six million displaced inside. Syrians abroad want to return home if they can be safe, and if they can access their homes. At the moment many cannot. They also need sustainable livelihoods. The living conditions of the Syrian people continue to deteriorate alarmingly."
The Druze have their own local armed factions. This includes groups like the Men of Dignity Movement, who fought the extremist "Islamic State" group. Over the years, Sweida has been able to win limited forms of autonomy from Damascus. The balance of forces in Sweida is not in favor of Assad's security forces.
For two weeks in August 2023, anti-government protests in Syria had been gaining momentum. Some say a new revolution is starting in the war-torn country, while others say it's all about people wanting to feed their families. In Sweida province, home to most of the country's Druze minority, roads to Damascus have been blocked, government offices closed and the obligatory portraits of Assad removed from buildings. Protests have spread throughout the province. The protests have become more political, with increasing calls from inside Sweida for action on the UN Security Council's Resolution 2254, which basically requires a transfer of power from Assad to a new government.
On August 15, the Syrian government removed state subsidies from fuel prices, which led to the price of gasoline more than doubling. At the same time, the government announced it was doubling civil servant's salaries. However, the gap between what Syrians were earning and what essential goods cost was already high, and the salary increase was too little, too late. Taxi and bus drivers refused to work, shops closed and food prices increased between 30% and 100% almost overnight. The protests began shortly after.
"Syrians have suffered a lot, but what happened in the past won't prevent them from demonstrating again if they are unable to feed their kids," Haid Haid, a consulting fellow for the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told DW. "It's safe to say that the economic factor was the main driver, but it's also political because the economic situation can be blamed on the government."
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