Operation True Promise 2 - 01 October 2024
“In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and the martyr Nilforoshan, we struck at the heart of the occupied territories,” the IRGC said in a statement released 01 October 2024 about 30 minutes after the first missiles struck. “If the Zionist regime responds to our attack, our next strikes will be more destructive,” the statement added. Haniyeh was the leader of Hamas and was killed in Tehran in early August. Nasrallah was the long-time leader of Hezbollah and was killed in an Israeli airstrike last week. Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoshan was the IRGC deputy commander of operations who was meeting with Nasrallah when Israeli jets collapsed a building on their Beirut bunker.
The Iranian mission at the UN also made an announcement about the missile attack. "Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime – which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran – has been duly carried out. Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue,” the mission said in a statement posted on X.
The October 1 barrage was the second major Iranian attack on Israel in just five months. On April 13, 2024, Iran launched hundreds of suicide drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles in what it described as retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. While the IRGC’s April attacks involved a combination of suicide drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, the strikes on October 1 were exclusively carried out using ballistic missiles.
Iranian officials say the strikes were in response to two incidents: the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the Palestinian movement Hamas, during a visit to Tehran in July which is widely ascribed to Israel; and Israel's attack on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon on September 27, which resulted in the deaths of Hasan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, and Abbas Nilforoushan, a senior IRGC general.
Images released by the Islamic Republic showing the missiles being fired, along with videos and photographs of missile booster debris found in Israel and Jordan, confirm the use of either Fattah-1 or Kheybar Shekan missiles during the October 1 attack on Israel by the IRGC. For instance, a comparison of official images of the Fattah-1 missile with the booster remnants discovered in Israel reveals matching patterns, leaving little doubt that the Fattah-1 was indeed employed in the strikes.
In Islam, the concept of the "True Promise" refers to the Day of Judgment (Yawm al-Qiyamah). This day is a fundamental belief in Islamic eschatology, signifying the final judgment of all human beings by Allah (God). It is called the "True Promise" because it is a certainty that will inevitably occur, as promised by Allah in the Qur'an.
Key aspects of the "True Promise" include:
- Resurrection: All human beings will be resurrected from their graves to stand before Allah for judgment.
- Judgment: Everyone will be judged according to their deeds—good or bad—recorded throughout their lifetime.
- Recompense: Based on their deeds, individuals will either be rewarded with paradise (Jannah) or punished in hell (Jahannam).
- Certainty of the Promise: The Qur'an emphasizes the inevitability of this even.
- Surah Ar-Rum (30:60): "Indeed, the promise of Allah is the truth, but most of them do not know."
- Surah Al-Ahqaf (46:16): "This is the true promise which they were promised."
Muslims believe in this as an essential article of faith, as it reflects the divine justice of Allah, who will hold every soul accountable for its actions.
"We are in the midst of a campaign against Iran's axis of evil. These are days of great achievements and great challenges" Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced.
“The world is on fire and spiraling out of control,” Donald Teump said. “We have no leadership, no one running the country.” Trump said that U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were “nonexistent” and “completely absent,” respectively. “No one is in charge, and it’s not even clear who is more confused: Biden or Kamala. Neither has any idea what is even going on. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the Iranian missile attack was “preventable” and that it would not have happened if he were president.
The official Israeli radio said that more than 250 rockets hit Israel within half an hour. The Jerusalem Post reported 500 missiles, while Channel 9 mentioned 181, with reports of three injured. Another local media said that Iran attacked with 180 ballistic missiles. All Israeli civilians are in bomb shelters as rockets from Iran are fired at Israel. The Israeli military said missiles have been launched from Iran towards Israel. There have already been reports of air raid sirens going off in Tel Aviv and warning sirens are sounding in Jerusalem, according to the news agency. The Israeli Foreign Ministry said sirens were sounding throughout Israel.
IDF spokesman, Brigadier General Daniel Hagari : "At this stage, no additional threats from Iran are identified in the airspace. We have carried out quite a few interceptions, the shooting will have consequences." 19:55 | The shooting continued. You are asked to stay in the protected area until further notice. The explosions you hear originate from interceptions or falls. The air defense system detects and intercepts threats all the time.
Sad Footage showed the only casualty in Israel from tonight’s Iranian ballistic missile attack, a Palestinian man in the West Bank who was struck by the falling fuselage of one of the intercepted missiles.
The Israeli army announced that Iran launched missiles that reached Jerusalem, where sirens sounded in the city and its surroundings, shortly after an American warning to Israel that Iran was preparing to launch a missile attack. Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said that Washington informed them that it was monitoring preparations by Iran to launch missiles towards Israel soon, warning that any Iranian attack would have "dire consequences." Footage published on social media shows that the Iranian missiles successfully hit the Israeli Tel Nof Airbase near Tel Aviv.
IDF Spokesman, Brigadier General Daniel Hagari : "Dear citizens, a short time ago missiles were launched from Iran into the territory of the State of Israel. You are asked to be vigilant and act exactly according to the instructions of the Home Front Command. In the last few minutes the Home Front Command distributed messages to cell phones in certain areas with life-saving instructions, The instructions for entering a protected area. You must arrive safely in the most protected area, in the area where you are, you must enter the protected area and wait there until instructed otherwise."
"The air defense system is fully operational, detecting and intercepting threats wherever it is needed, even at these moments. Besides, the defense is not hermetic, and therefore the directives of the Home Front Command must be obeyed. You may hear explosions, originating from interceptions or falls. Since we are dealing with different types of threats, it is possible that the alerts They will operate in large areas.
"Continue to act responsibly and keep calm, as you have done so far, and be sure to act according to the instructions. We are strong and capable of this event as well. The IDF is doing and will do everything necessary to protect the citizens of the State of Israel, the IDF forces are prepared and ready to defend And in the attack at peak readiness, I will continue to appear here and update you on all developments."
Jordan's Public Security Directorate said in a statement that Royal Jordanian Air Force aircraft and air defense systems intercepted several missiles and drones that entered Jordanian airspace. Reuters also quoted witnesses as saying that "Iranian missiles were intercepted in Jordanian airspace while flying towards Jerusalem." The Jordanian army announced the reopening of the Kingdom's airspace to incoming and outgoing aircraft after Jordanian ground-based anti-aircraft and air force intercepted hundreds of missiles launched from Iran and shot them down inside five Jordanian governorate.
During the attack, extensive interceptions were carried out, with the Israeli air defense systems operating effectively in full cooperation - both in identification and in interceptions with the United States. ccording to Israeli media, the Iranian missiles did not harm the competence of the air force and security sources delivered news here that the force will operate in the Middle East tonight in a powerful way. After the attack, the political-security cabinet met in a bunker in Jerusalem - for the first time since the beginning of the war. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had warned the United States and Russia before carrying out the attack.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich commented on the massive missile launch: "Like Gaza, Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon, Iran will regret the moment." Minister Miki Zohar also said: "The stupid Iranian leader who made the most wrong decision in its history will pay a very heavy price. This is the beginning of the end of the damned Iranian regime."
The Pentagon said: "The attack was twice as powerful as the missile attack in April, two American warships fired about a dozen interceptor missiles. In the meantime, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller emphasized that Israel has the right to defend itself, but the United States will coordinate the response with it. In addition, Jake Sullivan, the American National Security Adviser clarified: "We are proud of the actions we carried out together with Israel. This attack will have serious consequences and we will work with Israel so that this will indeed be the case."
German Foreign Minister Annala Barbuk said: "I condemn the ongoing attack in the strongest terms. We strongly warned Iran against this dangerous escalation. Iran must stop the attack immediately. It is leading the region further into the abyss." The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned: "Iran is called on to stop the hostility against Israel and stop destabilizing actions in the region." Switzerland condemned as well.
The Wall Street Journal: In recent days, Israel sent messages through Arab countries to Iran: if you attack us, we may damage your nuclear and oil facilities.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement after the missile attack on occupied Palestine. Much-anticipated Iranian retaliation against Israel has begun as ballistic missiles were fired at the occupied Palestinian lands (Israeli regime) on Tuesday evening. In response to the martyrdom of martyr Ismail Haniyeh, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and martyr Nilforooshan, we targeted the heart of occupied lands, the statement reads. The IRGC further said that the attack was in line with the country’s right to legitimate self-defense as per the United Nations Charter, and in response to the regime's escalating crimes—backed by the United States—against the people of Lebanon and Gaza. The IRGC warned that if the Zionist regime reacts to Iran's operations, it will face crushing attacks.
The Iranian television published chants of praise as a sign of joy for the launch of the missiles and many took to the streets and celebrated. In addition, fireworks were set off in Beirut and Iraq also celebrated. It should be noted that according to the Revolutionary Guards, more than 400 missiles were launched. According to the Iranian news agency Shafaqna, over 20 Israeli F-35 fighter jets were destroyed in the Iranian attack. One initial damage assessment claimed that Israel’s Nevatim Air Base was so badly damaged by Iran’s missiles that it was now inoperable. At least 20 F-35 fighter jets are confirmed damaged or destroyed, as well as tanks, gas platforms, vehicle repair stations, and hangars. The narrative that the Iranian attack was a success is taking hold in the Arab world. There are celebrations all over the Middle East. This has strengthened the flagging morale of the Iranian regime.
Iranian PressTV reported that 80% of missiles fired at occupied territories hit targets. The Iranian Mehr News reported that for the first time, the IRGC destroyed the radar missile defense Arrow 2 and 3 with Fattah-2 hypersonic missiles. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said that it had started hitting important military targets with dozens of missiles. Video footages from different cities across Iran like the capital Tehran show that barrage of missiles were fired at against Zionist entity. Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz, Khorramabad, Arak etc. across Iran witnessed missiles launched in the sky. Video footage show that Iranian missiles raid down on Israeli targets one after another.
The New York Times reported, citing Israeli officials, that the Iranian attack would include drones and ballistic missiles launched towards Israel. The Wall Street Journal also quoted a Pentagon official as saying: "We have observed over the past day increased readiness and the movement of missile launchers by Iran." NBC quoted White House and Pentagon officials as expecting "Iran to attack military and government sites in Israel, not civilian sites." Israeli officials confirmed that the possible attack would be with ballistic missiles on three military air bases and an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv, within 12 hours. "We will deal with any air threat from Iran as we have done before and we are highly prepared. We have dealt with threats from Iran in the past and we will deal with them at this stage as well," Hagari added. But he noted that Israel "did not detect any air threat launched towards Israel from Iran."
The newspaper "Israel Today" reported that Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi held consultations with army leaders to assess the situation. A statement from the Israeli Defense Minister's office said that Galant discussed with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, preparations to repel the expected Iranian attack, according to the statement. Axios news website also quoted a senior Israeli official as saying that Israel believes that the Iranian attack on it will be carried out in the next few hours, and that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held security consultations regarding the expected attack. The Israeli official indicated that the warning of the expected Iranian attack reached Israel around noon local time.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth also said that there were efforts to make a call between Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin in anticipation of an Iranian attack. Channel 14 reported that the US embassy in Israel asked its employees to stay at home and prepare to enter shelters.
It is noteworthy that Iran had warned that the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary - General Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards' operations, in an Israeli raid in the southern suburbs of Beirut "will not pass without a response." Iranian officials also strongly condemned Nasrallah's assassination, while the Pentagon affirmed Washington 's steadfast support "in defending Israel in light of the threats posed by Iran and its proxy network."
Iran had seen its most important ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and a pillar of its regional deterrence, collapse within weeks, and has threatened Israel with retaliation, saying it cannot stand by and watch Israel destroy first Hamas in Gaza and then Hezbollah, The Times reported. The newspaper explained - in a report by Samer Al-Atrash - that Tehran's options are limited against its militarily superior enemy, which can strike anywhere in Iran, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that any Iranian action would be more like futile revenge and an attempt to restore Tehran's standing among its supporters, rather than a strategic threat to Israel.
The newspaper reviewed some possible scenarios for an Iranian response, such as launching missiles and drone attacks, similar to its launching of hundreds of missiles and drones in April at Israel after an airstrike destroyed its consulate in Syria. Iran may try to launch a similar attack, but Israel and its allies are on alert and may intercept another barrage, and this time Israel will seek punishment, especially since last time it showed Iran that it can do much more, the newspaper believes.
Despite what appears to be a severe defeat for Hezbollah and what Hamas is suffering in Gaza, Iran can still rely on the Houthis in Yemen and the Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, all of which have fired missiles at Israel over the past ten months, and Tehran will no doubt redouble its efforts to achieve even a symbolic victory, according to the newspaper. Iran may seek, according to the newspaper, to use its agents to launch attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets abroad, or to facilitate such attacks by its agents and allies, as it is believed to have done on several occasions, such as Hezbollah’s bombing of a synagogue in Argentina in 1994.
Iran hads in the past targeted ships in the Gulf, a key waterway for global oil supplies, to hurt the United States and Gulf states, and it may do so again to pressure Washington to rein in Israel, but the massive buildup of U.S. military ships in the region could deter it. Iran has sought to expand and develop its cyberwarfare activities in recent years, targeting the United States, Israel and even Britain, with limited success in such attacks. Such a move could again provoke a response from Israel, which is more adept at cyberwarfare after it disabled Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in 2021.
Following the Israeli escalation that followed the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah , and the expansion of the scope of the raids that reached the capital Beirut and targets in Syria and Hodeidah in Yemen, Iranian circles agreed that the region was heading towards a comprehensive war, but they are divided over Tehran’s entry into the battle and the nature of its possible response.
Between those who seek to anticipate the future of the region by reading between the lines of the rapid developments in it, and those who blame the axis of resistance for not dealing painful blows to the Israeli entity after transferring the war to the northern front, Mehdi Motahharnia, head of the Simorgh Parekh Institute for Future Studies, places these events within the framework of the modern world order.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Motahhar Nia believed that the active powers in the new world order see Iran and its allies as a stumbling block to their vision of the world, and that those countries agree on what is happening in the region as long as it is in the interest of their grand strategy and plans for the future of the world. Motahar Nia anticipates that competition in the new world order will be limited to three major powers: the United States, as it is the remnant of the old world order, a united Europe, and China . The researcher reads the ongoing war in Ukraine and the developments in the Middle East in the context of the Western will to implicate Russia and Iran and drain their energies in wars due to their policies that are against the current of the world order.
He linked the events of September 11, 2001, to Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa on October 7, 2023, and points out that Western powers are riding the wave of the two events to form a new world order, adding that “the successive developments over the past year, including the escalation of attacks on Iran’s allies and targeting its interests in the region, including assassinations, aim to drag Iran into a comprehensive battle.”
In Motahhar Nia's opinion, the military escalation in the region will continue in order to lure Iran into a battle after its success in foiling many Western and Israeli plans to drag it into war following October 7th. He expected Israel to undertake a dangerous escalation against the factions allied with Iran during the next stage to undermine their capabilities for fear that they will carry out harmful operations in the event of a war with Iran.
He concluded that the Western-Israeli axis is implementing a policy similar to the approach of the axis of resistance led by Iran, and that the two camps are betting on the feasibility of involving the other side in battles of attrition and asymmetric wars, explaining that the Western side wants to reap the fruits of the policy of exaggerating the Iranian threat that it launched more than two decades ago by fabricating the Tehran nuclear file.
For his part, Mohammad Mehdi Mazaheri, an academic and former advisor to the presidency of the Expediency Discernment Council, believes that “Western powers have given the green light to the Zionist entity to tamper with the Middle East region under the pretext of ensuring the security of settlements in occupied Palestine” and that Israel sees a comprehensive regional war as an opportunity to eliminate the threats facing it for decades.
Mazaheri believed that the unlimited Western support for the Israeli entity during the past year encouraged it to take crazy steps after it became certain that its Western allies did not leave it alone in confronting Iran and the resistance factions, stressing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is buying time through the recent escalation, hoping that his friend, Republican candidate Donald Trump, will win the 2024 US presidential election to gain his support to undermine the capabilities of his enemies. Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, he accused Western and Arab parties of colluding with Israel to undermine Iran's military and nuclear capabilities, warning that war advocates are pushing the region to the brink of the abyss by working to ignite the fire of all-out war.
Mazaheri advised activating Tehran's diplomacy to revive the nuclear agreement during the era of Democratic US President Joe Biden in exchange for containing Israeli recklessness, exploiting the issue of revenge for the blood of Ismail Haniyeh, the late Palestinian Prime Minister who was assassinated in Tehran, and waving the stick of revenge to deter some regional threats to lead the country to safety instead of falling into the trap of a comprehensive regional war.
For his part, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, former head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, believes that the ongoing escalation in the Middle East will lead to an unprecedented arms race, and that things may not go according to the will of Netanyahu and his Western protectors to impose a comprehensive war on Iran. Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, he said that the Israeli escalation will lead most countries in the region to increase their military budgets and discuss nuclear armament in national security councils in a manner commensurate with the threats posed by the ongoing escalation and Western support for it.
According to Falahat Pisheh, a professor of political science at Allameh Tabatabai University, the closer the US presidential elections scheduled for November 2024 get, the higher the level of tension in the Middle East will be, adding that Israel will not be able to eliminate the resistance factions through the current escalation. He added that the Iranian military doctrine will not allow a war to be launched as long as the country is not exposed to a military threat, adding that if Iranian territory is attacked, a regional war will become inevitable, and that the Iranian response will be very broad to block the enemy's path and prevent it from targeting Iranian infrastructure.
According to Falahat Pisheh, Tehran is determined not to repeat the mistakes of its allies in the axis of resistance in dealing with Israeli attacks, adding that if Hezbollah had rained missiles and drones on the occupied territories in response to the first attack on the southern suburb, things would not have reached the current escalation.
According to Falahatpisheh, the Western powers led by the United States are setting a trap for the axis of resistance by procrastinating over the ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon to buy time for Israel to pounce on its enemies. He stressed that Tehran will not be fooled by such a trick, and that the first bullet that penetrates Iranian sovereignty will be a declaration of war that justifies Iran striking before it receives a painful blow.
In response to a question about the red line that would open the door for Iran to engage in the battle if Israel crossed it, Falahatpisheh said that the martyrdom of Iranian advisers there as a result of Israeli attacks indicates Iran’s indirect participation in the confrontation, but the breach of Iranian sovereignty would complicate the scene more than it is. He expected that the war would reach its peak in the coming short period if the Western parties did not listen to the Iranian warnings calling for curbing Israel and containing its insane policy, stressing that if a comprehensive regional war broke out, its consequences would be dire and its results could not be predicted.
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