Operation True Promise 2 - Aftermath & Interlude
Tensions in the Middle East spiralled in the 48 hours after Israel began what it describes as a "limited, localised and targeted" ground operation in Lebanon and Iran responded by firing at least 180 missiles at Israel in its biggest-ever assault on its arch-enemy. Israel vowed retaliation to an attack by Iran during which Tehran fired around 200 missiles towards Israeli territory. “"We will respond. We can locate important targets and we can hit them precisely and powerfully," an Israeli military chief said. After the US pledged support for Israel in the wake of Iran’s attack, President Joe Biden ruled out supporting an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. The US will try to align perspectives with Israel on an appropriate response over the coming days, a senior official said.
Many missiles did indeed successfully penetrate the Israeli air defenses, however, despite the victorious reports of the Iranian media about the destruction of dozens of F-35 fighters and armored vehicles, there is no objective data on the destruction of important strategic IDF facilities or even on the number of dead or injured people. Israel's response rhetoric and its real actions, most likely will also be extremely limited due to the lack of serious damage after the Iranian strike.
US President Joe Biden said that he does not support Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. He told reporters this 02 October 2024 when asked if he would support such an Israeli strike, reports CNN. "The answer is no," Biden said, adding that the United States would discuss with Israel how it could respond to Iran's missile attack. He also noted that, most likely, he will talk to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "relatively soon". The US president noted that all members of the Group of Seven, with whom he spoke during a telephone conversation earlier on Wednesday, agreed that Israel should "respond proportionately".
The Secretary General of the United Nations (UN) António Guterres on October 2 articulated that he strongly condemns Iran's missile attack on Israel, which happened the day before. Guterres said this at a meeting of the UN Security Council regarding the situation in the Middle East. "As I did in connection with the attack by Iran in April - and as it should have been obvious yesterday in the context of the condemnation I expressed - I again strongly condemn yesterday's large-scale missile strike by Iran against Israel," the official said.
TankerTrackers.com repored 03 October 2024 that the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) appeared to be fearing an imminent attack by Israel. Their empty VLCC supertankers vacated the country's largest oil terminal, Kharg Island, yesterday. Crude oil loadings continued, but all of the extra vacant shipping capacity has been removed from the anchorage of Kharg Island. This is the first time anything like this was seen since the 2018 sanctions round.
Traders are concerned that an Israeli reaction to Iran's Operation True Promise 2 may target Iran's oil infrastructure, which exports around 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. The rapid escalation in the Middle East has awakened the oil market, which had been stable until recently despite the ongoing wars in the region and had not experienced any major supply disruptions. The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to $76.03 per barrel before settling at $73.90. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, closed up 0.4% at $70.10 per barrel.
A strike may also bring the area closer to a worst-case scenario for the oil market, in which OPEC output would be hampered and Tehran would close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical petroleum chokepoint, driving prices into the triple digits. According to Ben Hoff, global head of commodity strategy at Société Générale, "It's like a game of Jenga, where the question really becomes, once you're at the seventh or eighth block, which one is it going to be that just ends up being a little bit too much, and the whole thing collapses on itself?"
Harold Hamm, the founder of Continental Resources and a financier to Donald Trump's presidential campaign, warned that the US was "unusually vulnerable" to a Middle East oil shock, blaming Joe Biden's policies for leaving the US shale patch in "weakened condition". Hunter Kornfeind, an oil market analyst at Rapidan Energy Group, stated that out of all developed nations, the US is "most prepared" for a "significant disruption in the Middle East."
However, this does not mean consumers will not be affected. While the US became a net petroleum exporter in 2020, it is still a net importer of crude oil, which is commonly utilized in refineries, according to the Energy Information Administration. Higher global oil market prices will raise prices for refined goods like gasoline and diesel for American consumers. The most significant of the consequences is set to be the election. If fuel costs increase before Americans vote for a new leader, "that will be immediately felt at the pump, and that’s what American voters care about more than anything else in terms of daily pricing," said Henning Gloystein, practice leader of energy, climate, and resources at Eurasia Group. He noted that rising gasoline costs in the coming weeks would be a "bad situation" for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris' electoral prospects.
Operation True Promise 2 - 04 October 2024
U.S. President Joe Biden said 04 October 2024 that Israel had not yet decided how it will respond to Iran’s missile attack against it, adding that the Israelis should consider not hitting Iran’s oil fields. "The Israelis have not concluded what they are going to do in terms of a strike. That's under discussion," Biden told reporters at a White House news briefing, adding he expected to speak with Israeli officials once they decide. "If I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields," the president said.
"No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None. None. None. And I think Bibi should remember that. And whether he’s trying to influence the election, I don’t know, but I’m not counting on that.... I’m assuming when they make their judgment of how they’re going to respond, we will then have a discussion.... They’re not going to make a decision immediately. And so, we’re going to wait to see what they — when they want to talk....
"The Israelis have every right to respond to the vicious attacks on them not just from the Iranians but from the — everyone from Hezbollah to the Houthis to — anyway. And — but the fact is that they have to be very much more careful about dealing with civilian casualties."
Israeli retaliation is likely to be more severe this time. Media reports citing Israeli officials said the country could strike strategic sites inside Iran, including energy facilities. A possible Israeli strike on an oil or gas facility in energy-rich Iran would be optically spectacular, but not strategically damaging, said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies.
Hitting a nuclear facility, Nadimi told Radio Farda, would be riskier and require a large attack, considering that Iran's key nuclear infrastructure is deep underground. Strikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, which Israel and the United States have reportedly rehearsed, could push Tehran to weaponize its nuclear program, experts have warned. "Regardless of [Israel's] target, such a blow is bound to compel Tehran to retaliate, triggering a ballistic missile ping-pong that could push the entire region into an abyss," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
It was "really hard to tell" if Israel will use the anniversary of Hamas' October 7 attacks to retaliate, a top US State Department official told CNN on 04 October 2024. "We hope and expect to see some wisdom as well as strength, but as you guys know, no guarantees," the official said when asked by CNN if Israel has assured the US that Iran's nuclear sites are off the table. "I think in some ways they would want to avoid the seventh, so in my estimation, if there is anything it would likely be before or after," the senior State Department official said.
Tehran will strike Israeli refineries, gas fields if Israel attack Iran, deputy commander in the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ali Fadavi, said on 04 October 2024. "If the occupiers [Israel] make a mistake [by attacking Iran], we will strike at all their energy sources ... all oil refineries and gas fields," Fadavi was quoted as saying by the Mehr news agency. Iran is a large country with many economic centers, while Israel has only three power plants and several refineries that Iran can hit at the same time, Fadavi added.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in turn said that Tehran does not intend to continue to strike Tel Aviv, but if Israel takes any action against Iran, the response will be tougher. "We do not intend to continue the attacks. If Israel takes any more steps against Iran, our actions will be tougher, and we will definitely respond. Our response will be proportionate and absolutely calculated," Araghchi told a press conference in Lebanon, as quoted by the Tasnim news agency.
Operation True Promise 2 - 10 October 2024
Gulf States called on Washington 10 October 2024 to prevent an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities. The countries that approached the United States are concerned that their own oil facilities could be targeted by Tehran. In addition, countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, are refusing to allow Israeli aircraft to fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran. Representatives of the states have informed the United States of this. Israel has promised to respond to Tehran after Iran's shelling of Israeli territory on October 1. The United States and other Western countries fear that Israel's retaliatory actions could lead to a larger war in the region. Tehran itself asked neighboring countries to use their influence on Washington, amid growing concerns about possible Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities.
Operation True Promise 2 - 12 October 2024
Kan News reported 12 October 2024 that it is estimated that Israel will react against Iranian targets that are defined as military targets, but Israel and the United States were still divided about the targets of the attack and when. Israeli and foreign sources reported Sinwar is not interested in a deal at this time.
There was a growing expectation that Israel will react against Iranian targets that are defined as military targets - this was reported today (Saturday) in the Shabbat news at Khan 11. Israeli sources told Kan News that there are differences of opinion between Washington and Jerusalem regarding the target of the attack and its timing. However, the sources noted that Israel and the United States continue to be fully coordinated in preparation for the response. Defense Minister Gallant had not yet received the green light from Netanyahu to go to Washington. The trip has not yet been approved by the cabinet, a condition placed on Galant by Netanyahu to go to the United States.
In the meantime, the behind-the-scenes attempts to advance the contacts for the release of the abductees continue. Senior Israeli officials recently met with the mediators to advance the negotiations. However, no progress was made. Three Israeli and foreign sources told Kan News that the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, has not yet returned an answer regarding the negotiations, and is not interested in it at this time - when Israel has not yet attacked Iran, and is immersed in fighting in Lebanon.
The United States agreed in principle to transfer to Israel a THAAD type air defense system battery to intercept ballistic missiles and aerial threats. The transfer of the system, according to an Israeli source, will be done at the request of Israel from the United States in order to project regional power and a strong alliance between the two countries. The details have not been finalized between the two countries. The Americans have not yet approved the transfer of the system to Israel, so there is no estimate of when the battery will arrive in Israel.
As part of the preparations for an Israeli response to the Iranian attack - the US will send Israel air defense batteries to intercept ballistic missiles, news first published in the TVN12 "Weekend News". This is the first time in the war that the US has given Israel the defense batteries. The defense systems will be operated by American soldiers on Israeli territory. This is a move that was practiced in the past - and now it will be implemented. The goal is to prepare together with the Americans for an Iranian response - which is expected to come into effect if Israel attacks Iran.
Tehran conveyed a message to Israel through European countries that it will turn a blind eye and not react as it has threatened, if the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack is limited. This was reported by the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awast from diplomatic sources. According to the same diplomatic sources quoted in the newspaper, the danger lies in the second part of the Iranian message to Israel, according to which Iran will have no choice but to cross the red lines if it were to be an Israeli attack that would have an impact that would damage the oil facilities or the nuclear facilities in the country.
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