Op True Promise / Iron Shield - 18 April 2024 - Still Waiting
Iran launched an attack on Israel using hundreds of drones and winged ballistic missiles, in response to a strike on April 1 that targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing seven members of the Revolutionary Guard, including two senior officers, and was attributed to Israel. With the help of the United States and other allies, Israeli air defenses were able to intercept the majority of these missiles and drones. Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend marked the first time, after decades of hidden war, that Tehran attempted to attack the country directly, launching more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel.
Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel in an unprecedented attack in response to the destruction of the Iranian consulate building in Damascus on April 1, which resulted in the killing of 7 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard , including prominent General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. Iran launched about 350 missiles and drones towards Israel, of which Tel Aviv claimed to have intercepted 99%, while Tehran said that half of the missiles successfully hit Israeli targets. Although Israel confirmed that it shot down the vast majority of the drones and missiles, it pledged to “respond” to the attack. This is the first attack launched by Iran directly from its territory on Israel, and not through groups loyal to it, including Hezbollah in Lebanon.
On April 13th and the morning of April 14th, Iran launched a significant attack on Israel, deploying over 300 drones and missiles, marking its first direct assault from Iranian territory. The majority, over 98%, of these projectiles were intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the United States. Despite the interception efforts, some Iranian ballistic missiles breached the defenses, resulting in casualties and damage to a military base in southern Israel. The attack was in retaliation for an airstrike on Iran's consulate in Syria, which claimed the lives of seven Iranian military officials. Tensions remain heightened, although Iran had declared the cessation of its operation against Israel. Tehran calibrated this strike as an easily anticipated “Goldilocks” response meant to leave room for an off-ramp toward de-escalation.
Israel was considering its options to respond to the direct Iranian attack that targeted it on Saturday night, amid assurances from military commanders that “they have no choice but to respond.” Iran's retaliatory operation against the Israeli regime on April 14, 2024, intensified the Israeli need for secrecy. Hagari had tried to explain away Israel's strategic failure and the erosion of its deterrent force against the Islamic Republic of Iran. It may not be an exaggeration to say that the claim of "99% interception of Iran's missiles and drones" in the very first hours of Operation True Promise was the most misleading statement that Hagari had put forth during the nearly 200 days since the start of the Gaza war.
This claim can be easily verified by quantitatively examining the number of missiles and drones used by Iran in the retaliatory operation on April 14. According to Western media, the total number of Iranian missiles and drones in this operation was between 320 and 350. Accepting Hagari's claim would mean that only 3 Iranian missiles or drones hit the targets, but even international and some Israeli media have reported the impact of Iranian missiles in at least 6 locations in the occupied territories. These six locations include the Ramon base, the Nevatim base, the Arad region, the surrounding areas of West Jerusalem, Umm al-Fahm, and the occupied Golan Heights. Additionally, the number of impacts based on online videos is much higher than Hagari's claim - in just one of the videos, which is dedicated to the Nevatim base, 7 impacts are depicted.
Saturday's incident was characterized, according to the analysis, by "unprecedented cooperation" from Arab and Gulf countries in repelling the attack. Jordan intercepted a number of drones and missiles and allowed the United States and other countries to use its airspace, according to the Wall Street Journal , while the UAE and Saudi Arabia shared intelligence information regarding the planned attack, according to the same newspaper. Although Jordanian officials downplayed the importance of their role in repelling the Iranian attack, describing it as a matter of self-defense, Foreign Policy noted that “the importance of the moment was not lost on many in Israel, which fought four wars with Jordan before signing the peace treaty in 1994.”
According to Foreign Policy, this response constituted the first important test for an emerging, albeit unstable, alliance in the Middle East against Iran, even as Israel’s war in Gaza sparked great popular anger in the region. Aaron David Miller, the former chief American negotiator in the Middle East at the State Department, told the magazine: “What the Gulf states did from April 13 to 14 indicates that, no matter how committed their people are to the Palestinian issue, they are still prepared to take care of their national interests first.” "This is what is important, not that the cooperation happened, but that it happened under counterintuitive circumstances," he added.
The analysis by Foreign Policy magazine stated that the Iranian attack on Israel demonstrated unprecedented cooperation from Arab countries in confronting the common Iranian threat, despite the continuing tensions due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially with the ongoing war in Gaza.
The analysis highlighted the opportunities offered by this cooperation in order to form a strategic alliance against Iran and normalize relations between Israel and the Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, with American mediation. However, he pointed out the obstacles and restrictions that may prevent this, especially in light of the war in Gaza and the weakness of some Arab countries in confronting Iran without American security guarantees.
The Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have always tried to avoid taking a position on American geopolitical rivalries in recent years, but when the turn came to the conflict between Israel and Iran, it became difficult to maintain a balanced or neutral position. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have always tried to avoid taking a position on American geopolitical rivalries in recent years. They remained largely neutral in the Ukraine war and built relations with China, but the situation centered on the conflict between Israel and Iran. It becomes difficult to maintain a balanced or neutral stance.
The news-site reported that the confrontation between Israel and Iran revealed the difficulty of the UAE and Saudi Arabia maintaining a “delicate balance” between Iran, their main competitor in the region, on the one hand, and the United States, their most important security ally, and Israel, on the other hand. It pointed out that in light of the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which is strongly supported by the United States, “the Gulf states are likely to find themselves faced with two options: either allow American forces to launch attacks from bases in their countries and risk Iranian retaliation, or appease Tehran and remain on the sidelines.” “As it has done significantly since the October 7 attacks that threw the Middle East into a state of turmoil.”
Since the Iranian attack on Israel, the UAE had called for restraint and the need to work to achieve stability through diplomacy. As for Saudi Arabia, the newspaper indicated that its position is “more complex,” in light of the efforts aimed at concluding a normalization agreement with Israel that guarantees the Kingdom access to security commitments from the United States and its support in its nuclear program, efforts whose momentum had declined with the war in Gaza.
On the other hand, former American officials warned against exaggerating the cooperation of Arab countries in repelling the Iranian attack, noting that it may have “stemned from pragmatism and not from altruism.” Former advisor to the US Department of Defense, Bilal Saab, told Foreign Policy: “I do not want to belittle what the Jordanians did, but most of these accounts were local and had to do with protecting their skies,” noting that the country also receives significant funding from the Ministry of Defense to train and equip its armed forces.
Although the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia had agreed to share intelligence information about the Iranian attack with the United States, Saudi officials downplayed their country's participation in the operation. Sources denied to Al-Arabiya channel that the Kingdom was participating in intercepting the Iranian bombing, which confirms the precise line that Riyadh is taking, according to Foreign Policy.
Saab stated that in the absence of security guarantees and clear pledges by the United States to provide protection, the Gulf states will likely remain conservative and reluctant to enter into a direct confrontation with Iran or escalate the situation with it. Miller shares this view, saying: “I think this was a promising sign of things that may develop and mature, but the restrictions are still very severe.” Miller added, "The Gaza issue has not disappeared. The Israeli-Palestinian side of this has not disappeared," adding, "Above all, I think the issue of weakness will make many countries think carefully before demarcating any alliance that appears to be strategically directed against Iran."
In a related context, the Gulf states are working hard to try to contain the escalation between Israel and Tehran, in an attempt to protect their security and their ambitious economic policies, which are especially threatened by the recent military escalation, according to analysts who spoke to Agence France-Presse. Andreas Craig, an expert on Middle East affairs at King's College London, said in his interview with the agency that the Gulf countries share "a general awareness that conflict is harmful to business, and that avoiding conflict has now become necessary, no matter the cost."
Aside from its relationship with the countries of the region, the Foreign Policy analysis stated that Saturday’s attack once again highlighted the threats facing Israel, which is keen to take advantage of this moment to further isolate Iran, at a time when its Western partners have become more frustrated with the tactics of its forces in Gaza. And the resulting worsening humanitarian crisis there. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said on Sunday: “We have an opportunity here to establish a strategic alliance against this dangerous threat from Iran, which threatens to place nuclear explosives on the heads of these missiles.”
For his part, Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz said on Tuesday that his country was launching a “diplomatic attack,” sending letters to 32 countries and contacting dozens of foreign ministers, calling for imposing more sanctions on Iran and classifying the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. The White House announced on Tuesday that the United States would impose new sanctions on Iran, indicating that it "expects" other allies of Washington to follow suit soon. Indeed, on Wednesday, European Union leaders decided to tighten sanctions on Iran, condemning the Iranian attack, reaffirmed their commitment to Israel's security and called on all parties, including Lebanon, to prevent further tensions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Wednesday that his country "reserves the right to protect itself" in the face of international pressure on his government to avoid a response against Iran that threatens to drag the region into further escalation in the midst of the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Joel Rubin, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the administration of former US President Barack Obama, said: “The Gaza war put Israel’s diplomatic relations under pressure in the region, but not under direct pressure, as would be the case if it responded militarily to Iran.” Which could lead to the area being ignited.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said that after carrying out strikes against Israel in retaliation for the Tel Aviv regime’s terrorist attack on its diplomatic premises in Syria, Iran informed the US that it is not after tensions in the region. Speaking early on Thursday upon his arrival in New York to attend a United Nations Security Council session on Palestine, Amirabdollahian said Tehran had informed Washington of its decision to punish Israel in line with the international law and legitimate right to self-defense following Israel's attacks against the consular section of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus and the killing of its military advisers earlier this month.
Following Israel's airstrikes, Iran told the UN secretary general that the Security Council must fulfill its duty to counter the regime's measures. After the retaliatory response -- dubbed Operation True Promise -- on Sunday, Iran sent another message to the US through diplomatic channels to explicitly announce that it does not seek an escalation of tensions in the region, he added. The top Iranian diplomat warned that Israel's behavior can lead to more tensions in the region. Before the military operation against Israel, Iran told the US that it had no plan to hit American bases and interests in the region unless Washington carried out any measure to support the Tel Aviv regime's aggression, Amirabdollahian explained, according to Press TV.
Commander of the IRGC's Nuclear Facilities Protection and Security Command Brigadier General Ahmad Haqtalab warned of potential revisions to Iran's nuclear policies if Israel continues to threaten attacks on its nuclear sites. "If Israel attempts to use the threat of attacking nuclear facilities to put pressure on Iran, a revision of the nuclear doctrine and a departure from the previously announced considerations is likely," stated the commander.
Haghtalab highlighted Israel's history of sabotage and terrorist acts against Iran's nuclear industry alongside its ongoing threats. "Although according to international protocols and standards and the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency, all countries are advised to refrain from attacking nuclear facilities, the Islamic Republic of Iran has always been prepared to confront these threats from the beginning," he asserted.
Referring to the recent criminal act of the Zionist regime in attacking the consular section of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Syria, which violated all international laws and regulations, General Haqtalab stated that it was not expected that the regime would again make the futile attempt to threaten an attack on our country's nuclear facilities. “By the grace of God…, we are prepared to confront any threat from the Zionist regime,” he added.
“The nuclear facilities of the Zionist enemy have been identified, and we have the necessary information about all the targets, and in other words, our fingers are on the trigger of powerful missiles to destroy the specified targets in response to their possible action,” General Haqtalab noted, emphasizing the full readiness of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He stressed that if the Zionist regime took action against Iranian nuclear facilities, it would certainly face a reaction, and in retaliation, the nuclear facilities of the regime would be targeted and attacked with advanced weapons.
“If the fake Zionist regime wants to use the threat of attacking our country's nuclear facilities as an instrumental means to put pressure on Iran, a revision of the nuclear doctrine and policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a departure from the previously announced considerations is likely and conceivable,” he said. Emphasizing that the era of "hit and run" is over, as stated by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, General Haqtalab said, “If the Zionist regime commits an act of aggression against Iran, the type of response will be with the prudence of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they can be sure that the blow they receive will be recorded in history like the ‘True Promise’ operation”. Concluding, Haqtalab reassured the Iranian people of the safeguarding measures in place, asserting the complete security of Iran's nuclear facilities under the protection of its armed forces.
US President Joe Biden announced that the United States and its allies imposed sanctions on Iran due to its attack on Israel. Biden said: “Less than a week ago, Iran launched one of the largest missileand drone attacks the world has ever seen against Israel . The United States, in cooperation with our allies and partners, defended Israel. We helped repel this attack, and today we hold Iran responsible and impose new sanctions and controls on Iran.”
“The sanctions target leaders and entities associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the Iranian Ministry of Defense, and the Iranian government’s missile and drone program, which enabled this ‘brazen’ attack,” Biden added. “As I discussed with my fellow G7 leaders the morning after the attack, we are committed to action.” Collectively to increase economic pressure on Iran, our allies and partners have issued or will issue additional sanctions and measures to restrict Iran's destabilizing military programs.
He continued: “During my administration, the United States imposed sanctions on more than 600 individuals and entities, including Iran and its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. And we will continue to do so. I have directed my team, including the Treasury Department, to continue imposing sanctions that further weaken Iran’s military industries.” Biden concluded: “Let it be clear to all those who enable or support Iranian attacks, the United States is committed to the security of Israel. We are committed to the security of our personnel and partners in the region. We will not hesitate to take all necessary measures to hold you accountable.”
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