Op True Promise / Iron Shield - 14 April 2024 - The Day After
"We're now in the prelude to World War III precisely when humanity should rebuild its economy towards the rapid goal of decarbonization," Colombian President Gustavo Petro said, adding that the ordeal was predictable. "The United Nations must meet urgently and must immediately commit to peace." Palestinians across Gaza celebrated Iran’s retaliatory Operation True Promise [arabic = "waad haqiqi", also reported as “Operation Honest Promise”] against Israel as Iranian missiles and drones hit Israeli targets. Inaction, lower-grade strikes, or being content with military action through the “axis of resistance” of aligned groups across the region would be viewed as too costly for Iran both locally and abroad.
Political researcher Salah al-Din Khadi expected the Islamic Republic to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if its lands are exposed to a hybrid Israeli-American-Western attack, which would pave the way for it to move quickly towards manufacturing an atomic bomb, adding that this hypothesis may urge other parties to contain the Iranian-Israeli tension. During the next stage, he does not rule out Tel Aviv launching a counterattack on Iran.
Iran retaliated against Israel over the deadly attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria early this month. Iran said the retaliatory attack targeted the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert that was used to launch the Israeli strikes on the Iranian consulate in Syria, and major Israeli intelligence centers in the Jabal al-Sheikh heights at the border near Syria that was behind the deadly attack on the Iranian consulate. Hundreds of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles were used in the attack. It was conducted in several stages from multiple directions in order to suppress and overwhelm Israel’s missile shields. Tehran says the attack has achieved all its objectives. This was the first time Iran directly attacked the Israeli-occupied territories.
Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri said that Iran had the capability to launch a missile and drone strike “tens of times” greater than the Sunday morning operation against Israel, but refrained from a massive attack and confined it to a punitive operation. “Their (Israeli) population and economic centers were not hit, so that the criminal and aggressive Zionist army would realize that their action won’t remain unanswered. We are definitely prepared to defend our soil and interests,” Major General Baqeri said.
The commander noted the punitive mission “Operation True Promise” in retaliation for the Israeli airstrike on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus has ended. “A considerable number of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles have been used in this operation with well-thought-out tactics and proper planning, as neither the Iron Dome nor the Zionist regime’s missile defense shield could take any significant action against this operation. The operation’s purposes have been fulfilled,” the top commander said. He stated that the mission has been accomplished and has obtained the desirable results.
Iranian news channel Press TV reported on Sunday that none of the hypersonic missiles fired towards "Israel" overnight were intercepted by the Iron Dome. Last night, the broadcaster reported that seven hypersonic missiles were fired from Iranian soil. Some of the missiles reportedly struck "Israel's" Nevatim Air Force base, which is one of "Israel's" largest airports and is the main base for F-35 fighter jets. According to reports, the attack involved 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles, and 110 surface-to-surface missiles launched from Iran. Analysts identified specific Iranian-developed weaponry, such as the Paveh 351 cruise missile, which possesses a range exceeding 1,200 miles, allowing it to reach "Israel" from Iranian territory. The Iranian response, last night, was identical to what was stated to Al Jazeera Net last May by Ali Abdi , a military expert close to the Revolutionary Guards , under the title “ Escalation of mutual threats... What is Tehran’s plan to respond to any possible Israeli attack? ”, where it was used. Dozens of drones and missiles in the first direct attack on Israel since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1989.
Military expert Ali Abdi believes that the recent Iranian attack has challenged all the defense systems of Israel, the United States, NATO and European countries, led by Britain and France. He described the military confrontation in the skies of the Levant last night as "global between second- and third-class Iranian military industries, on the one hand, and the latest Western military industries, on the other hand."
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the Iranian expert explained that he was certain that "Iranian missiles are capable of penetrating radars and hitting targets deep inside Israel without drones, despite the Zionist, American and Western willingness to confront them." He added that his country's response fell short of the expectations of military circles, as Tehran did not use the latest military industries such as hypersonic missiles and those that he described as "amazing and super-effective" and had not yet revealed, he said.
Regarding the impact of the Iranian operation, the same spokesman believes that it “was relatively successful in directing a blow to the Zionist entity and delivering a message of fire to Tel Aviv and its regional and Western allies, but it failed to avenge the blood that was spilled on the road to Jerusalem, whether in Iran or among its allies in the axis of resistance.” He added, "The option of real revenge is through imposing new rules of engagement initiated by the recent operation, and any potential Israeli response may justify Tehran's implementation of its retaliatory operations." He concluded that the participation of some Western and regional countries in confronting Iranian missiles and missiles demonstrated that they had chosen to side with the occupation in the upcoming potential confrontations, warning that the side that was able to launch hundreds of missiles and missiles within hours is also capable of launching thousands of them simultaneously.
For his part, political researcher Salah al-Din Khadi said that the Revolutionary Guards’ control of the Israeli ship “MSC Aris” near the Strait of Hormuz, prior to the attack, aims to send a clear pre-emptive message to the American and British sides that any retaliatory response to the Iranian operation will endanger the security of the Strait. . Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the researcher believed that his country deliberately did not strike targets in major Israeli cities, and that “the limited-scale operation aims to restore Iran’s deterrent power against Israel,” adding that Tehran’s targeting of the occupied Syrian Golan and military targets in the Negev Desert aims to contain developments and prevent Provoking the Israeli side more than it is.
Iranian official television said that half of the missiles launched “successfully” hit Israeli targets, Iranian "authentic" reports about the Iranian missiles that have hit the Israeli targets indicate that the retaliatory operation launched by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has been considerably more successful than expected, IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami said. “The operation has been carried out more successfully than expected. The information on the missiles hitting the targets are not complete yet, but part of the impacts about which we have accurate, documented and ground reports illustrate that the operation has been accomplished with greater-than-expected success,” the commander added, “We carried a limited operation, which was commensurate with the Zionist regime’s evil acts. It could have been more widespread, but we confined the operation to that section of the Zionist regime’s facilities that had been used for attacking our embassy (in Damascus),” the general explained.
Israel reported that 99% [ome sources reported 97%] of the Iranian projectiles were intercepted by its military and allies, yet it admitted damage at Nevatim Air Base. There were no fatalities however.
Israel will respond to the Iranian missile and drone attack when the time is right, war cabinet Minister Benny Gantz said in a statement on April 14, calling on the country to strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to weather the unprecedented overnight attack. “This event is not over – the strategic alliance and the regional cooperation system that we built and stood its significant test need to be strengthened precisely now. Israel proved yesterday that it is an anchor of military and technological power, and an anchor of security in the Middle East,” Gantz said in a statement. “Faced with the threat of Iran – we will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran, in the way and at the time that suits us. And most importantly – in the face of the desire of our enemies to harm us, we will unite and become stronger,” Gantz added.
US President Joe Biden condemned the Iranian attacks on Israel, and said that he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , indicating that he would discuss with the leaders of the Group of Seven a unified response to the Iranian attack. Biden explained that his conversation with Netanyahu emphasized the “unwavering American commitment” to Israel’s security, saying - in a statement - that I will meet with my fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a unified diplomatic response to the Iranian attack. The American website Axios also quoted a White House official as saying that Biden informed Netanyahu that Washington would oppose any Israeli attack against Iran.
The American official said that Netanyahu told Biden that he understood why Washington did not participate or support an attack against Iran, pointing out that Biden informed Netanyahu that the efforts of the United States, Israel and other countries “thwarted” the Iranian attack. In turn, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office said that Netanyahu is speaking with Biden, after meetings of the war cabinet and the mini-security ministerial council to discuss the Iranian attack. Netanyahu held a phone conversation with Biden, coinciding with another phone call between Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin , in the second call between the two ministers within 24 hours.
The Israeli Mini Ministerial Council for Security and Political Affairs (Cabinet) authorized Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and Minister Benny Gantz to make decisions to respond to the Iranian attack, according to the official Israeli Broadcasting Authority. The broadcasting authority explained that the authorization decision came after the cabinet held a meeting in a fortified area at the Israeli Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv, coinciding with Iran’s start of an attack on Saturday evening using missiles and drones on Israel. In response to the bombing of the headquarters of its diplomatic mission in the Syrian capital, Damascus. The broadcasting organization added - later - that Israel requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to condemn Iran and “declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization” after the attack, following Israeli officials vowing in the past few days that if Iran attacks Israel from its territory, the response will be in inside Iran in the next few days.
Dr. Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst - Australian Strategic Policy Institute, noted "these drones are likely the first wave, and are likely to be coordinated with timed launches of cruise missiles and then ballistic missiles so that all these Iranian attack waves arrive in a coordinated and simultaneous manner over their targets. In that way, the Iranians have the best chance of overwhelming Israeli integrated air and missile defence networks. I highly doubt the Iranian response will just be the drones. Also, cyber attacks are likely. Secondly, Israel may not wait for this likely coordinated attack to reach Israel before retaliating. It would make sense for Israel to try to disrupt the Iranian attack as it happens to limit the effectiveness of the attack.... any Israeli response is likely to include strikes on Iran's #nuclear related facilities to set back Iranian efforts to get nuclear weapons. Israel is rightly concerned that Iran is very close to getting enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a bomb - within a matter of days - and Israel would be unwise to leave that capability in place."
Israeli analyzes and assessments unanimously agreed that the Iranian attack with drones deep inside Israel should turn on a red light for decision makers in the Israeli security establishment, despite what they described as an “impressive achievement” achieved by the Israeli defense system in cooperation with America . Israeli analyzes agreed that Iran crossed and broke the barrier of fear and attacked Israel from Iranian territory for the first time since the Islamic Revolution . This reflects the collapse of Israeli deterrence, and Tehran’s daring to challenge Tel Aviv and place it in a state of emergency and psychological warfare, since the targeting of the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the assassination of leaders. Among the Revolutionary Guards , the most prominent of whom is the commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, Hassan Mahdawi.
Despite the decline in deterrence and Iran’s daring to attack Israel, readings by Israeli analysts indicate that the unprecedented Iranian attack, and its interception by Israeli defense systems in cooperation with America and regional countries, reflects an “operational success,” as it could constitute an opportunity to form an American-Israeli-Arab alliance. Against Iran. According to analysts' estimates, the Israeli army is not in a hurry at the present time to respond to the Iranian attack, although this may harm the ability to deter, and analysts agreed that the attack in Iran could exacerbate the situation and drag the region into a regional war, especially after That Tehran was able to attack Israel and set a worrying precedent.
Under the title “Netanyahu waited with victory celebrations... a miserable failure of deterrence against Iran,” the Walla newsroom editor, Ariel Schmiedeberg, wrote an article in which he strongly criticized Netanyahu’s performance in dealing with the Iranian threat, saying: “Despite The defense system was completed, but Iran succeeded in confusing us over the course of two weeks and bombing the Israeli depth.” On the other hand, Schmidberg says, “There is also a catastrophic failure regarding the ability of Israel and the United States to create deterrence against Iran, which has shown tremendous strength and unprecedented courage, and this is evidence of the collapse of the balance of terror. Also, the balance of terror against Hezbollah in Lebanon was not completely balanced.” “This is what Israel fears.”
The author of the article recommended that the Israeli elites wait and postpone shouts of joy and victory celebrations, saying: “We have not won yet. Israel is still far from achieving the goals and winning, and the families of the kidnapped people and tens of thousands of residents of the north and south who are still displaced from their homes and move as refugees in their country attest to this.” 6 months ago.
On the military side and anticipation of the Israeli response, the military analyst, Amir Bouhbut, believes that Israel faces the dilemma of “containing the attack or responding with an attack in Iran and risking escalation and dragging the region into a regional war?” As a result, the military analyst says, “senior officials in the IDF General Staff will be asked to evaluate Iran’s possible responses, and they will also have to receive a series of recommendations, whether to respond forcefully and exact a price from the IRGC’s military bases and locations or choose to assassinate security personnel.” "Iranians." Bouhbut believes that the chiefs of staff will also have to think about whether they will be content with a limited operation, whereby Israeli Air Force pilots carry out a mission at a distance of 1,500 kilometers, to strike a symbolic Iranian target, such as a government building, weapons depots, oil wells and even Iranian ships that have arrived. Sailing in the sea.
As for the third option, the military analyst estimates, based on the statements of the Israeli army spokesman and Security Minister Yoav Gallant, that Israel will not rush to respond, and will carefully study the degree of response at the time it deems appropriate, noting that Israeli estimates agree that Iran aims to destroy the air bases. The Israeli army has superiority in the Middle East.
In the context of criticizing Netanyahu’s performance during the Iranian threats and the drone attack that extended deep into Israel, the Israeli writer, Carmela Cohen Shlomi, described Netanyahu as a “coward” because he neglected Israel during the Iranian attack, as the US President, Joe Biden, took charge of it, who caught it and brought it back to its senses. “After difficult hours during which the citizens of Israel were searching for someone to explain to them what was happening,” Cohen wrote in an article on the website “Zaman Yisrael”: “A pale and sweaty old man appeared on the screen and was wandering near the headquarters of the Ministry of Security in Tel Aviv, and asked: Is there 7 shekels ($2)? "I need to go to a friend's hideout."
With these words, the Israeli writer described Netanyahu and summarized his approach to managing Israel’s affairs during the state of emergency, saying: “He destroyed everything and still keeps a draft of a speech that ends with the phrase, ‘Together we will win,’ to employ Iranian attacks in order to circumvent the protests and promote that Israel is in danger.” The writer and political analyst, Ben Caspit, seemed more clear when he said in his article in the newspaper “Maariv” that the Iranian attack with drones and missiles on Israel was the lowest point reached by the Netanyahu government, which continues to achieve failures and failures even in the field of national security. According to Ben Caspit's view, Israel was subjected to a heavy and unprecedented public insult by Iran, saying, "The Israeli deterrence that prevented Iran from attacking us directly has collapsed, and joint international deterrence efforts have also collapsed. The Iranians have broken the barrier of fear. From now on, Iran Against Israel, openly.”
Indicating the features of the response that may be delayed and will be unannounced, Ben Caspit says: “As expected, Biden tried to bring Netanyahu down from the tree and avoid a quick and strict reaction, and it seems that he has succeeded in doing so, at least so far.” The political analyst believes that the fact that Israel opened its airspace and resumed flights at Ben Gurion Airport “means that the possibility of an immediate Israeli response, which was promised by those close to Netanyahu, has become slim, and that the automatic need to teach the Iranians a harsh lesson and impose a heavy price on them now stands before the strategic reality” complex in the Middle East.
According to The New York Times, U.S. President Joe Biden dissuaded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from greenlighting an immediate retaliatory strike against Iran after the attack. The report said that several members of Israel’s war cabinet had been in favor of launching a retaliatory attack against Iran before the call. In addition, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the U.S. was not seeking “a wider war in the region” after it assisted Israel to defend against the Iranian attack. “We don’t seek an escalation,” Kirby said, noting that President Biden told Netanyahu during their call last night that the U.S. will continue to support Israel’s “right to self-defense.”
Israel was preparing for several days of confrontation with Tehran amid the Iranian drone attack launched against the Jewish state, Israeli media reported. The Israeli armed forces recorded more than 100 drones launched from Iran towards Israel on Saturday evening, the Kan broadcaster reported. Israel is also checking information about the possible launch of cruise missiles from Iran, the report added. The Iranian military previously confirmed that missiles would be a part of their attack.
US forces joined efforts to down the explosive-laden drones launched by Iran. US President Joe Biden pledged that his support for Israel's defense against Tehran and its proxies was "ironclad." He also said after a call with Netanyahu overnight Saturday that he would speak with G7 leaders on Sunday to coordinate a "united diplomatic response."
The UK, Canada, France, Spain, Argentina, the Netherlands, Denmark, Mexico and Norway were among the nations that condemned Saturday night's attack. Some criticized Iran's destabilizing move and others acknowledged Israel's right to defend itself. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said, "Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard... The UK will continue to stand up for Israel's security and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq. Alongside our allies, we are urgently working to stabilize the situation and prevent further escalation. No one wants to see more bloodshed."
“It seems that Iranian leaders are determined to take action, but also [be] seen to take action,” David Des Roches, an associate professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera. “What that indicates to me is that there are considerations of pride and prestige that are divorced from strategy and tactical utility that may indicate a more dangerous era than we thought,” In Tehran, hundreds of supporters of the government gathered in the middle of the night to celebrate the strikes according to state media. They gathered at Palestine Square and outside the UK embassy.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior aide to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, said Iran’s overnight missile and drone attacks that targeted deep inside the Israeli-occupied territories crushed the myth of invincibility that has surrounded the Israeli regime since world wars. “... this decisive and crushing move of defense broke up the fake grandeur of the Zionists and exposed the world’s belated crusaders,” he said while likening Israel and its Western supporters to Crusaders who sought to take control of the Holy Land more than 10 centuries ago.
“We sent a message early this morning to the White House and stated that this was a limited operation with minimum force only to secure our rights on legitimate defense and to punish the Israeli regime,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said. “Being limited in legitimate defense and punishing the Zionist regime means that we did not define any civilian targets in our response,” he added. “Our armed forces did not target any economic or population location, even in the attack on the military base where the Zionist regime's operation center against the Islamic Republic of Iran embassy in Damascus was located, the necessary care was taken to deal with and respond to the Zionist regime.”
Iran warned of a decisive and much stronger response if Israel or its supporters demonstrate reckless behavior in reaction to its retaliatory strike on Israel. General Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard, said on Iranian state TV that Tehran had entered a "new equation" in which any Israeli attack on its "interests, assets, officials, or citizens would be reciprocated from its own territory." General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, warned Iran's "response will be much larger than tonight's military action if Israel retaliates against Iran." As if to underline the government's position, a mural in Tehran's Palestine Square was unveiled overnight, with the phrase "The next slap will be fiercer" written in both Persian and Hebrew.
The commander of the Iranian Army cautioned the US to refrain from backing the Zionist regime which has been hit by Iran in a retaliatory operation, warning that all American military bases in the region will be deemed to be operational targets should Washington step in. Army Commander Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi noted the Iran decided to launch the punitive operation against the Israeli regime following increasing public demand from the Iranian nation for retaliation and after the international organizations’ failure to punish the Zionist regime in accordance with Article 7 of the UN Charter. He then cautioned the Israeli regime that it will have to face yet “harsher punishment” if it insists on the continuation of its aggressive measures. The Army chief finally warned the US authorities that their intervention in support of the Zionist regime will jeopardize all American bases and interests in the region, because Iran will then consider the US bases, particularly those used as sources of threat against the Islamic Republic, as operational targets.
Iranians appeared to be worried about the threat of the escalating conflict and preparing for potential Israeli attacks on Iranian cities. DW's Persian department observed multiple social media posts showing long lines at gas stations, with Iranians anticipating a sudden increase in gas prices. Supermarkets were filled with people buying up essential items such as rice and bread, and Iran's currency, the rial, briefly plunged to a record low against the US dollar on the open market, according to foreign exchange monitoring site Bonbast.
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