Operation Days of Repentance - Intelligence Leak - October 2024
The alarms over "leaks" of secret materials about Israel's impending attack turned out to be a smokescreen. For some reason, Israel had delayed retaliation against Iran's ineffectual 01 October missile attack. Clearly part of the delay entailed haggling with the USA about how hard to strike what targets. Quite possibly another dialog was ongoing between Iran and Israel, with the latter possibly offering to reduce the scope of retaliation in return for the release of hostages held by Hamas. There were several weeks of negotiations on "where to hit / where not to hit" and mantras of "nobody wants a world war."
The term "chicken-feed" is used to describe the intellingence tradecraft practice of releasing misleading disinforamtion, salted with small tidbits of actual classified information, added to enhance the credibility of the disinformation. The 18 October 2024 "leak" of two pages of intelligence on Israeli attack planning seemed designed to persuade Iran of the serousness of the Israeli attack threat. It is not evident that this disclosure would have any impact on Israeli planning.
Middle East Spectator states that it is "an open-source news aggregator by independent journalists, not tied to any government entity or organization". The Telegram channel in question mainly publishes pro-Iranian propaganda content, and the profile of the Twitter account operated by that Telegram channel explicitly states that its operators are located in Iran. On 18 October 2024 at approximately 01:15 AM Tehran time, an acquaintance received, through an anonymous source on Telegram who refused to identify himself, two highly classified U.S. intelligence documents, regarding preparations by the Zionist regime for an attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Middle East Spectator claimed to have received them from a source within an American intelligence agency.
CNN reported on one of three sources familiar with the matter, who confirmed the documents' authenticity. Senior American officials expressed great concern over the leak of two American intelligence documents that dealt with Israeli preparations for an attack on Iran which were published by a Telegram account identified with Iran. The US Department of Defense and the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the leaked documents but did not deny their authenticity. The timing of the leak occurred as Israel was completing its preparations for retaliatory action in Iran, in response to the missile attack of October 1 and was seen as an attempt to influence or disrupt it.
During remarks 22 October 2024 at a Latino roundtable in Miami, Former President Trump spoke about the leak of U.S. intelligence documents. " A bad thing happened today, you probably heard. The press isn't covering it very much which is just incredible. Possibly our defense department or somebody. Anyway, it was leaked. The entire military plan of Israel, the military plan, the plans they have at the highest level. It was leaked. Highly confidential information, it was leaked, they have no idea who did it. Can you imagine you are fighting a war, can you imagine anything like that? They leaked all the information about the way that Israel going to fight and how they are going to fight and where they are going to go. Who did that? Can you imagine somebody doing that? That is the energy, maybe that is the enemy from within as I talked about. We have an enemy from within. They hate to talk about it. So we just can't stand for this incompetence anymore. We are incompetently run country."
Trump claimed that a leak of highly confidential documents severely compromised Israel’s wartime strategy in a Truth Social post. "U.S. leaked highly confidential Documents from Israel. May have come from Defense Department. Israel has been seriously damaged and compromised by this. Wartime strategy and data. Probably came from Defense Department. MUST FIND THE LEAKER! Israel no longer wants to share documents with U.S., and who can blame them!"
Trump later complained the leask included "information about the way that Israel will fight, even the Israeli game plan to the enemy, who could imagine this? Who can imagine this? I would say Israel is not too happy about that."
Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) wrote a letter to President Biden 22 October 2024 "Officials in your administration have repeatedly leaked information clearly designed to pressure Israel to curb its righteous campaign against Iran and its terrorist proxies over the last year.... In each instance, these leaks are providing aid to Israel’s—and America’s— enemy about likely Israeli attack plans and limiting Israeli freedom of action. Given this track record I am deeply concerned as to whether your administration will adequately address this serious security breach. "
Cotton wrote on twitter "The Biden-Harris administration can’t be trusted to investigate these leaks on their own. Today I demanded regular updates on the investigation to both the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence."
Speaking alongside Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) on Martha MacCallum’s Fox News program, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said of leaked U.S. intelligence documents about an impending Israeli attack on Iran that it is “both a federal crime to leak that information, and it’s also an act of treason.” Rubio said “It’s aiding an enemy of the United States—a government in Iran that basically says ‘death to America,’ ‘death to Israel’ every week”. Rubio said “We need to know who did this, and they need to be punished”.
Cotton told MacCallum that “without confirming or denying the information that was in this leak, we shouldn’t be surprised that we’ve seen from this administration more than a year’s worth of leaks hostile to Israel... From the very top to the very bottom, they’re packed with people who are hostile to Israel and sympathetic to Iran and its terror networks .... “From Kamala Harris, who puts more pressure on Israel than she does on Iran, or her own national security advisor, who associates with known Iranian influence agents in the administration at the State Department, at the Pentagon,” Cotton added. “So we’ve seen this pattern for a year. After this election, though, it’s going to stop.”
Senator Roger Wicker wrote "Last year, I called for suspending Ariane Tabatabai’s security clearance for her role in an Iranian info op. Amazingly, she’s still in her job. The latest apparent leak to an Iranian Telegram channel reflects the Biden-Harris administration's tolerance of insider threats.
On 23 October 2024 former U.S. Ambassador to Poland, RNC Finance Committee co-chair, Republican fundraiser and entrepreneur Georgette Mosbacher appeared on Fox Business “the FBI confirmed the investigation of a possible leak of classified documents. These documents showed Israel's plans for retaliation against Iran, no wonder Benjamin Netanyahu is not sharing information with the U.S. in my view. …. I tell you as ambassador when it came to classified material it was so closely held that this is clearly the deep state and there is no reason why that they haven't figured out by now who it was that leaked that. There are only a handful people who look at the classified material … we’re not talking about a thousand people were talking about a handful of people.”
Robert Charles O'Brien Jr. is an American attorney who served as the National Security Advisor from 2019 to 2021. He was the fourth and final person to hold the position during the presidency of Donald Trump. O'Brien told Fox "I think it was much more likely a leak. You have everything from Rob Maley who was Obama and Biden's lead negotiator, their lieutenants, one of which is still sitting in the Pentagon. I think we have been compromised in many ways by Iran."
Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., joins 'Fox & Friends' discussed the ongoing investigation into the leak of classified documents on Israel's plan to attack Iran. "I think it was much more likely a leak. You have everything from Rob Maley who was Obama and Biden's lead negotiator, their lieutenants, one of which is still sitting in the Pentagon. I think we have been compromised in many ways by Iran."
Robert Charles O'Brien Jr. is an American attorney who served as the National Security Advisor from 2019 to 2021. He was the fourth and final person to hold the position during the presidency of Donald Trump. O'Brien told Fox "This is a very dangerous situation, we've got people who are sympathetic to Iran currently in this administration -- they got the means to do it so if they want, but we'll investigate on it and want to find a leaker to find out who it is."
Former ambassador-at-large Nathan Sales discussed the U.S. intelligence leak that may have compromised Israel's plans to attack Iran on 'The Story' 23 October 2024. "... certainly this administration we've seen a pattern of damaging, highly sensitive information being strategically leaked to the press to undermine Israel at key points throughout its war against Hamas in Gaza and also against Hezbollah. But the sort of leak is a sort of thing that is going to further erode [trust]. And if you're Israel, this is a sort of thing that's going to cause you to lose any confidence in the Biden White House. So whoever leaked this, the irony is you've actually made Jerusalem less likely to heed the counsel of Washington because you've increased the amount of distrust between the two allies. … Unfortunately under President Biden and Vice President Harris' leadership, the trust has started to erode and elements of the administration seem to feel that they are empowered to continually leak damaging, harmful information."
There is no indication that Israel will delay an expected strike on Iran, despite leaked US intelligence documents revealing details of its preparations, the War Zone has reported, citing an anonymous American official. The London Times newspaper had claimed that Israel has been forced to postpone its retaliation to the missile barrage launched by Iran on October 1, after details of the Jewish state’s plans found its way to the public. The War Zone quoted an unnamed US official as insisting that “we have no indication that Israel is delaying any action because of the document leak.”
The report came after The Times, citing an anonymous “intelligence source with knowledge of Israeli deliberations,” claimed earlier in the day that the “leak of the American documents delayed the [Israeli] attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components.” “There will be a retaliation, but it has taken longer than it was supposed to take,” the source added. According to the British newspaper, “Israel is concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack,” which has supposedly forced it to “develop an alternative plan.”
The documents included a report by the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency of the US Department of Defense, which was distributed within the US intelligence community, and which detailed operations carried out in recent days at several bases of the Israeli Air Force. The transfer of advanced weaponry, according to the report, was intended for an attack on Iran. The report also states that according to intelligence obtained through signals intelligence, the Israeli Air Force conducted an exercise in which fighter jets and UAVs took part as a possible preparation for an attack on Iran. NIMAST is presumably referring to the old NIMA campus in St. Louis. The IS02 Rocks missile is publicly known.
Golden Horizon [He = Ofek Zahav] is not a publicly known system, or it could be the designation for a known system. In 1996 Raphael's team was awarded the Eliyahu Golomb Israel Security Award for Development of a communication pod for the "Golden Spear" air-to-ground missile. Golden Horizon may refer to a missile from the Sparrow series used as targets for defense systems, but capable of offensive use. The Silver Sparrow missile is 8.3 meters long with a range of 2,000 kilometers and a pre-launch weight of 3,100 kilograms. Designed to simulate Iranian Shahab-3 class ballistic missiles with a 1,500-2,000 km range, after launch, it behaves like a ballistic missile, ascending to high altitudes before striking its target. Unlike Israel’s F-15-launched single-stage Black and Blue Sparrows used to test existing Arrow-2 interceptors, the larger Silver Sparrow is planned for launch from C-130 military transport aircraft.
One document, was entitled "Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Strike on Iran and Conducts a Second Large-Force Employment Exercise, 15-16 October 2024". The document has two dissemination caveats, which mainly contain the ususal stuff, presumably the upper one from the multi-page document from which this page was extracted, the lower one for thtis page itself.
TOP SECRET/TK/FGI ISR//RSEN/NOFORN
TS//TK//RSEN/REL TO USA, FVEYThe term RSEN [RISK SENSITIVE] is used to protect especially sensitive imaging capabilities and exploitation techniques.
"The Israeli Air Force (AF) continued air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) handling, covert UAV operations, and conducted a second large force employment exercise [LFE] from 15 through 18 October 2024, according to imagery analysis. The IAF has handled at least 16 Golden Horizon ALBMs and at least 40 IS02 (Rocks) ALBMs since 8 October, according to imagery analysis. The IAF continued ALBM handing at Hatserim Airfield on 15 October 2004. The IAF placed concealment screens over six F-15I hardened aircraft shelter (HAS) entrances on an alert apron on 16 October, which indicated ALBM handling occurred in the HAS area. We cannot differentiate if this activity is related to IS02 (Rocks) or Golden Horizon ALBMs: however, three possible Golden Horizon ALBM-associated dollies arrived in a separated HAS adjacent to the F-15I alert HAS complex. We did not observe increased personnel at the ALBM handling area at Hatserim Airfield on 16 October.The other document, "Israel: Defense Forces Continue Key Munitions Preparations and Covert UAV Activity Almost Certainly for a Strike on Iran" was dated 16 October 2024."The IAF likely handled air-to-surface missiles (ASM) at Ramat David Airfield and Ramon Airfield from 15 through 16 October. The IAF handled one probable unidentified ASM at Ramat David Airfield on 15 October. One unidentified ASM was in front of hardened aircraft bunker typically associated with precision-guided munitions generation. At Ramon Airfield, one munitions cart probably outfited with missile handling equipment arrived within the ALBM area on 16 October, indicating ALBM handing likely occurred.
"The IAF continued to conduct UAV flight activity at Ramon Airfield from 15 through 16 October. The IAF opened the RA-01 operations hanger screen and the gate to the RA-01 operations area, indicating an RA-01 airframe was transiting to or from the operations area at 17312 15 October. On 16 October, NGA observed personnel and ground equipment arrive within the RA-01 operations area, indicating pre or post-flight activity occurred.
"The IAF conducted an LFE exercise on 15 October, the second LFE exercise since 13 October, likely to practice air-to-air refueling and combat search and rescue with a large number of aircraft. The LFE exercise included at least three KC-707 tankers, one G-550 Gulfstream airborne early warning aircraft, and possibly fighter aircraft, according to SIGINT reporting. The KC-707 tankers and G-550 Gulfstream aircraft involved in the LFE exercise is a similar package to what the SAF used to conduct long-range strikes in Yemen on 29 September 2024, according to imagery analysis."
"The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity on 16 October almost certainly for a strike on Iran. We cannot definitively predict the scale and scope of a strike on Iran, and such a strike can occur with no further GEOINT warning.
"The Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued long-range air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) handling on 16 October. The IAF has handled at least 16 Golden Horizon ALBMs and at least 40 1502 Rocks since 8 October, according to imagery analysis. The IAF also maintained the readiness of aerial refueling and support aircraft and likely conducted an aerial refueling exercise on 15 October.
"All Israeli mid and upper-tier air defense systems remained deployed.
"The Israeli Navy continued to disperse from Haifa, and the IAF continued to partially disperse aircraft at Ovda airfield.
"The IAF continued covert UAV operations on 16 October. Israel's covert UAVs enable long-range, covert surveillance in Iran and throughout the region.
"We did not observe any Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) activity on 16 October. Israel likely dispersed MRBMs on 1 October, and we lack indications that the dispersal has concluded. MRBM dispersal is almost certainly defensive; we have not observed indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon.
"Informed sources" claimed that Israel postponed its response to Iran after the leak of secret American documents, referring to what was published by accounts on the Telegram platform. The informed intelligence source also explained that the delay in the Israeli response was due to the need to change some strategies, according to the British newspaper, The Times. The US investigation will also look into how the documents were obtained, whether they were intentionally leaked by a member of the U.S. intelligence community or whether they were obtained in some other way, such as by hacking or piracy, an official said. The investigation will also look into whether other intelligence information was compromised.
While the British newspaper "The Times" reported that Israel postponed its strike on Iran due to the leak of American intelligence documents, an Israeli security official denied that the postponement of the attack was due to those documents. According to a report by Mahmoud Al-Kan broadcast by Al Jazeera, a channel on the Telegram application leaked documents attributed to the US Department of Defense ( the Pentagon ), in which they indicate the monitoring of Israeli movements in which aircraft are loaded with specific types of missiles, and espionage and refueling maneuvers are carried out.
A leaked page indicates that Israel moved the munitions on October 16, almost certainly to prepare for a strike on Iran. The document specifies the types of weapons to be trained on, including air-launched ballistic missiles, which allow fighter jets to strike long-range missiles without having to enter an adversary's airspace and be exposed to its radar and air defenses. The document indicates that satellite imagery analysis showed that 16 Golden Horizon missiles were transferred. The Times suggests that this name could refer to the Blue Sparrow missiles, which have a range of 2,000 kilometers. There were also 40 Israeli-developed Rocks missiles, the exact range of which is unknown. At the Hatzarim base, the document explained that the IAF covered 6 fortified shelters for F-15 fighter jets, which means that they were equipped with missiles. It also shows that air-to-ground missile training took place at the Ramat David and Ramon bases, where there was secret training on the use of drones.
According to Al Jazeera’s report, based on this data, experts can draw up scenarios, including: Israel seeks in its plan to use fighter jets to fly long distances, and refuel from “KC-707” aircraft, while early warning aircraft monitor any movements that threaten the aircraft during the flight. To minimize aviation losses, airborne ballistic missiles will be launched from distances beyond the range of Iranian air defense systems to target fixed or moving targets.
According to The Times, Israel is concerned that the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns and components of the attack, which prompted Israel to postpone and develop alternative strategies, which led to the response taking longer than it should have. However, the Israeli Army Radio quoted a senior security official denying what was stated in the Times newspaper, and saying that there was no connection between the leak of documents from the Pentagon and the choice of timing for the attack on Iran, as no final date had been set for carrying out the attack in any case and it had been postponed.
Writer and former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas explained, in a 22 October 2024 news analysis in Haaretz newspaper, that there are certainly more documents, whether about the confrontations between Israel and Iran, or Russia and Ukraine, or China and Taiwan. Benkas said that the news was initially met, as usual, with skepticism from the media, who warned that “we cannot confirm the authenticity and credibility of these documents.” Benkas noted that the intentional leak of national security information is a criminal offense, unlike the unintentional leak. However, he added that the leak can sometimes constitute treason, depending on the subject, circumstances, sensitivity of the information, the method used to obtain it, and the intended recipient, even if it is indirect.
According to the analysis, a leak is rarely a one-off, isolated event, whether it involves national security, politics, or inside corporate securities information. Each leak has several key elements: the nature of the content, how it was gathered, the context, its significance, the identity of the leaker or leakers, whether it was intentional, and the implications. Pinkas elaborated on the main types of leaks based on a book by University of Washington researcher Richard Kilpwich titled “The Role of News Leaks in Governance and Journalists’ Secrecy Law, 1795-2005.” Kilbwich identifies the main types of leaks as those intended to influence policy, shape one's image, implicate another person, or improve relations with the media.
Benkas believes that this leak could be a combination of all of these types, adding that one thing seems clear: the platform chosen to publish the two secret documents suggests - most likely - that it was not a deliberate American leak to pressure Israel or alert Iran. He said there were other, more sophisticated ways and better outlets to do this, accusing the Middle East Spectator channel on Telegram of being pro-Iranian despite claiming to be “independent and unbiased, seeking a multipolar world. It is primarily focused on Iran and the axis of resistance.”
The American documents, based on satellite images taken on October 15-16, detail Israeli preparations for a possible strike in response to Iran’s launch of 181 ballistic missiles at Israel on the first day of the same month. According to Pinkas, the very recent date of the two documents is consistent with US assessments of the timing of the Israeli strike, and partial details of Israeli air force training and munitions movement. The documents were available to share within the "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance, which includes the United States, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and Australia.
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