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Operation True Promise / Iron Shield - Iran vs Israel

The magnitude of the pressure on Israel in 2024 had shown that the current situation was unsustainable. It was to overcome this impasse that Israel decided to attack the Iranian consulate. The idea behind the attack was that Iran would either respond or would not. If not, then the Zionist entity would have regained the previous balance, and if Iran responded, the war would expand and Gaza would be forgotten. The Israelis could not have predicted that the Iranian response could be both successful and manage to keep the war from expanding.

“In response to the crime of the Zionist regime in the attack on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, the IRGC air force hit certain targets in the territories of the Zionist regime with dozens of drones and missiles.” Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) stated on 13 April 2024. Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, quoting an informed source, reports that a batch of ballistic missiles was launched towards targets in Israel. Al Jazeera’s Hamdah Salhut reported many “active interceptions” of incoming attacks over the skies of Tel Aviv, and Al Jazeera’s cameras captured a number of flashes in the night sky above the city. In the early hours of 19 April 2024, Israel struck Iran as a retaliatory measure for Iran's 13/14 April attack on Israel using hundreds of drones and missiles. An Iranian military air base near Isfahan [32.78187, 51.81718] was reported to have been hit. Iran's Fars News Agency reported that an explosion had been heard in Qahjavarestan, located 22 kilometers (13 miles) away from Isfahan. Iran's air defenses were reported to have been activated in several provinces. Iran's nuclear facility at Isfahan was not reported to have been struck.

On 18 November 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed during his speech in the Knesset that Israel was behind the attack. The attack also included an attack on As-Suwayda in southern Syria. According to the publications, the IDF attacked using drones and air force fighter jets . The attack was carried out in stages. First, Israel destroyed radar systems in the Daraa region of southern Syria, to clear a safe corridor for the attacking aircraft and allow for effective fire. Three attack aircraft fired Blue Anchor missiles from Syrian territory at the defenses of the Isfahan nuclear facility. The booster rockets of the Blue Anchor missiles broke away over Iraq and fell south of Baghdad. The missile warhead continued to hit targets in Iran without the Israeli Air Force aircraft approaching Iranian airspace. The missile strike followed repeated warnings by Iran that any Israeli atatck would trigger a severe response. Iran's President Ebrahim Raeisi had warned earlier that week that any action would trigger an "extensive and painful response". Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in New York to attend a UN Security Council meeting, had warned the previous day that "in case of any illegal use of force by the Israeli regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate a bit to assert its inherent right to give a decisive and proper response to it to make the regime regret its actions. This is an unchangeable decision".

A mysterious Israeli weapon struck the defenses of the Natanz reactor without being detected by Iran. Western and Iranian officials said that the Israeli weapon that targeted Isfahan caused damage to Iranian air defenses without being detected, at a time when exclusive satellite images showed that no serious damage occurred to the Iranian air base, which was believed to be the main target behind the Israeli attack on Iran.

ABC reported that three missiles were fired from an Israeli fighter aircraft outside of Iran in this morning’s very limited strike. According to a senior US official quoted by ABC, the Israelis were targeting an air defense radar site near Isfahan that’s part of the protection of the Natanz nuclear facility. The official said the first assessment is that the strike took out the site, but assessment hadn’t been completed. John Ridge suggested that the IAF carried out a standoff attack from Syrian airspace with Sparrow, likely Blue Sparrow, air-launched ballistic missiles released from F-15Is. With a closer examination of crashed Israeli missiles found in Iraq, it has now been determined that they are Rafael ROCKS air-launched ballistic missiles. It shows that F-16I Sufa strike fighters were participants of the airstrike at Iran.

Anshel Pfeffer wrote in Haaretz 19 April 2024"Israel's lackluster strike on Isfahan is at most a temporary measure, a place-holder. And it was ordered by Netanyahu, who made a career out of talking up the Iranian threat but when the moment of truth came, he had nothing to say or offer... Benjamin Netanyahu wants this all wrapped up and put away by the time we sit down for the Passover seder Monday night – just some leftovers of chametz that can be put on a bonfire and rendered meaningless "as the soil of the earth." ... The far right is preparing a narrative portraying Netanyahu as a weak leader advised by a treacherous General Staff that failed on October 7 and was cowed by the "hostile" Joe Biden. The belated opening of Gaza to aid convoys, the scaling-down of the war there and the delay of a Rafah operation are all part of that narrative.... Surveys showed that a majority of Israelis were against a strike on Iran that would have led to an all-out war.... It's not just his notorious indecisiveness that has prevented him from speaking up. Finally, after decades of empty words, the moment of truth came and he had nothing to show. "

Former British Intelligence Director John Sawers considered that Israel had committed a strategic miscalculation in the Middle East, and that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was comfortable diverting attention from Gaza's humanitarian disasters. The former MI6 director said in an interview with CNN 21April 2024: “We are in a very tense time after the Israeli strike in Damascus and the heavy Iranian response. We must not forget that the Iranian response was a failure and disappointing, as only a small part of the barrage The missiles and drones were able to arrive and did not cause any damage to Israel at all, and I think that Prime Minister Netanyahu feels very comfortable at the present time. Three weeks ago we were talking about the disasters in Gaza and the almost failure of the Israeli attack there and the bombing of the humanitarian convoy, and he has changed the subject.”

He continued, saying: “We must understand that this shadow war between Israel and Iran has been going on for a number of years, and the last round of it was the Israeli strike in Damascus (targeting the Iranian consulate), which surprised many people, including the American administration, I think, and shocked the Iranians as well because it was an escalation.” By attacking a diplomatic mission building, even if it was being used as a headquarters for the Revolutionary Guards.”

He added, "I think that Israel committed a strategic miscalculation. They thought that they could live next to Gaza under the administration of Hamas, and October 7 showed that they could not do that. They live next to Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon, and they live next to Syria, in which Iran has a large foothold, and now I do not think that the Israeli security leaders who I worked with from Mossad, Shin Bet, and others would be willing to endure this endlessly, and they would say, “If not now, then when.” But I believe that the policy indicates steps forward rather than a major escalation .”

Military analysts estimate that Israel chose to remain silent and not officially announce that it was behind the attack on Iran to avoid any broad Iranian response deep inside Israel. The Iranian response would cause comprehensive destruction to the entire Israeli internal front, and drag the region into a regional war whose course and developments Tel Aviv does not know.

Israeli analysts agree that the Middle East region is going through a turning point and is heading towards a new historical era, but it will not be for the better. Tehran directly attacked Israel using hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, and the response came when a military target was attacked near the city of Isfahan, where there are also sites for Iran's nuclear program.

What is particularly important, according to estimates by Israeli military analysts, is who is responsible for the attack, as officials in the administration of US President Joe Biden explained that it was an Israeli action on Iranian territory, and the region appears to be closer than it was in the past to the danger of a large-scale regional war breaking out. In a reading of the attack attributed to Israel, Amos Harel, a military analyst in Haaretz newspaper, said that what is happening in Iran should be viewed as an attempt to shake the regional ship, after Israel fell into a strategic trap at all levels.

To prevent the Middle East from being dragged into a regional war, the military analyst believes that the international community will accelerate efforts to calm things down towards Israel and Iran, whose exchange of strikes has gone beyond the form of confrontation in the past, stressing that the regional situation is still dangerous. Harel estimated that the silence in Tel Aviv and the absence of an official account of the attack, despite the persistence of threats during the past days by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government , comes from an awareness of Iran’s increasing power, and an assessment that Israel fears a comprehensive confrontation while it is involved in the battlefields in Gaza and Lebanon.

The military analyst explained that Israel did not see the thwarting of the Iranian missile attack on it as the end of the final say and expected more decisive attacks deep within its territory in the event of a regional war breaking out. Therefore, the attack on Iranian sites was limited and focused on one site in Isfahan, without targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. The attack attributed to Israel appears to be a demonstration of capabilities and the transfer of messages from Tel Aviv to Tehran stating, according to Harel, “We are capable of causing serious damage to you,” and restoring deterrence in order not to motivate Iran to respond forcefully to the attack.

In addition to the direct response to the Iranian attack, the offensive operation in Iran, for which Israel had not claimed official responsibility, “expresses a degree of frustration about the regional strategic trap,” according to Harel, who believes that Israel faces security challenges and threats without being able to resolve and restore deterrence. Since the outbreak of the “ Aqsa Flood ” battle, the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza, and the fighting on the northern front with Hezbollah. He adds that Israel was unable to achieve the stated goals of undermining the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) militarily and politically and returning Israeli detainees.

Under the title “A deliberate attack, so that Iran does not respond,” Ron Ben Yishai, a military analyst on the Ynet website affiliated with the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, wrote an article in which he reviewed the repercussions of the attack attributed to Israel on Iranian sites on the region. In reading the nature and scale of the attack, Ben Yishai says, “Whoever carried it out, which included - according to reports - launching advanced weapons at targets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s air force , did so with the aim of avoiding another round of exchange of strikes, and allowing the Iranians to contain the attack and not respond.” By attacking Israel.

He added, "If Israel was the one who actually carried out the attack, it was likely that it was carried out intentionally so that the destruction would not be widespread, and that it would be consistent with the damage to the Israeli air base at Nevatim. This was done to allow the Iranians to contain the event without pressure from the governors and the Revolutionary Guards on the regime." To respond to the attack attributed to Israel.

According to reports, the attack, the Israeli military analyst says, “was successful,” noting that damage was caused to an air base belonging to the Revolutionary Guard northeast of Isfahan, while the Iranian air defense forces were able to intercept some weapons, while Israel “remains silent and does not officially confirm or deny its involvement.”

From the point of view of the military analyst for the Walla website, Amir Boukhbout, Iran, with its public attack on Israel last week, crossed the red lines and destroyed all tools, while the attack attributed to Israel indicates that Tel Aviv is returning the fight behind the scenes to limit the exchange of blows to avoid a regional war. Over the past week, the need for an Israeli military response to the Iranian attack has emerged in the political and security arena in Tel Aviv. Boukhbout says, "But the assessments of the security establishment and consultations with the political level, in light of American pressure, were clear that Israel would seek to deliver a message, and not carry out broad action, that would drag Iran into a direct and ongoing confrontation against Israel."

Therefore, in analyzing foreign reports about the secret and relatively silent operation, which included heavy drones attacking an Iranian military airport in response to an attack on an Israeli military airport in the Negev, the military analyst adds, “It seems to be a simple equation, which is an eye for an eye.” He pointed out that the limited Israeli action against targets in Iran aims to leave room for deniability for the Iranians and not be followed by a strong and broad reaction against Israel, in addition to pleasing the United States, and continuing to focus on the Gaza Strip as the main theater of the war.

The military analyst estimated that the Israeli army was looking for a way to respond to the Iranian attack without being drawn into a direct and ongoing confrontation, saying, “The attack on Iran suggests to Tehran that Israel is capable of striking it even without sending fighter planes to a distance of thousands of kilometers.” Amid this silence, the source of Israeli concern, Boukhbout says, “is the fact that Israeli intelligence did not properly assess the changing Iranian aggressiveness against the backdrop of the close relationship with Russia , which was a reaction to the assassination of a senior Iranian official.”

Another aspect of Israeli concern, according to the military analyst, is related to changing the rules of the game, which is that “the Iranians decided to highlight the war between the two countries and turn it into a direct confrontation.” He concluded by saying: “Now, in any difficult or sudden military action against Iranian interests throughout the Middle East, the Israeli security establishment will have to take into account the direct Iranian response, and this new equation. In Israel, a new player must be introduced into the equation to deter the regime of Ayatollah Khomeini.”

The G7 foreign ministers said on Friday that they are working to prevent escalation between Israel and Iran , after reports of an Israeli attack on the city of Isfahan, while US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the group is determined to impose sanctions on Tehran. The G7 foreign ministers said - in a statement - after their 3-day summit on the Italian island of Capri, that they would hold Iran accountable for what they described as its “malicious, destabilizing actions” in the Middle East. The G7 foreign ministers urged Israel and Iran to prevent escalation.

During a press conference by the US Secretary of State after the end of the G7 summit, Blinken denied his country's participation in the attack launched on the Iranian city of Isfahan, and called on Tel Aviv and Tehran to reduce the escalation. He added that the group confirmed its intention to impose sanctions on Iran and hold it accountable for its activities, which he described as “destabilizing” in the region.

International newspapers and websites discussed the repercussions of what they described as a limited retaliatory strike against Iran, and international support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, despite the United States’ use of its veto against full membership of Palestine in the United Nations. Regarding the escalation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, the Washington Post wrote that Israel launched a “limited and carefully designed retaliatory” strike against Iran to avoid escalation. It stated, based on expert analyses, "Israel's silence after the attack and Iran's downplaying of its importance suggest that both sides hope that the strikes exchanged so far will be sufficient to satisfy public opinion on both sides without the need for further retaliation."

The New York Times published an article stating, “The Israeli retaliatory strike indicates an attempt to withdraw from the danger zone - most likely - to return to the shadow war with Iran,” after the latest round of exchanged strikes brought the conflict between them into the open and raised fears of the outbreak of a wide-scale war. In the region, the newspaper adds.

While the Guardian newspaper saw in an article that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may benefit in the short term from what the article described as Iran’s calm response. The article added, "The nature of the attack cannot restore Israel to the level of deterrence it enjoyed before the attack by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas)," warning that the outbreak of a multi-front war is still a strong possibility.

Iran announced at dawn on Friday that explosions had occurred in the sky of the city of Isfahan, and confirmed that there had been no missile attack or damage to sensitive installations, while American media quoted officials as saying that Israel had carried out retaliatory strikes in response to the Iranian attack that targeted it last Saturday. Regarding the vote of 12 members of the UN Security Council in favor of full membership for the Palestinians in the United Nations, Le Monde newspaper wrote that the result reveals the extent of international support for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and confirms the importance of this option for achieving stability in the Middle East.

The French newspaper added that the result of the vote once again shows "the contradiction of the United States, which says it supports the two-state solution but at the same time prevents the Palestinians from achieving it." In the same context, the newspaper "The Times of Israel" quoted an American official as saying that Washington initially tried to persuade the Palestinian Authority to abandon its effort to obtain full membership in the United Nations, and then, after meeting with it, turned to the members of the Security Council to convince them to oppose the draft resolution or abstain from voting. The newspaper comments that "the result of the vote showed the failure of American efforts, which is symbolic evidence of Washington's international isolation on this issue."

Retired US Army Major General Mark McCarley said that the attack on Iran early Friday was a retaliatory measure and a warning message. McCarley said that Israel must maintain its vigilance if Iran decides to respond with another show of force. McCarley added that by targeting the Iranian city of Isfahan, Israel would likely be warning that it could easily bypass Iran's defenses. “I think there was a very deliberate thought process on the part of the Israeli war cabinet,” he said. It is noteworthy that the city of Isfahan is the largest center for nuclear research in Iran, and contains an important military base, in addition to the Isfahan Civil Airport. While Israel refused to comment on the targeting, an American official told Al Jazeera that Washington was aware of reports that Israel had launched a strike inside Iran.

Discussions on Israeli media channels focused on the controversy surrounding the strikes that Iran was subjected to and the possibilities for it to respond to them. Reserve Colonel Talia Lancry, former Vice President of the Israeli National Security Council, asked about the ambiguous situation that Israel is experiencing, saying to Channel 12, “We do not know where this situation will take us, and we do not know where things will go. Will there be a response from Iran? And where will it come from?” .

Channel 13 military affairs correspondent Or Heller says, "The attack is a message to the Iranians. On Saturday night, when Iran launched its attack, missiles and drones were launched from there, from the same base near Isfahan." He added that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant spoke with his American counterpart, expressing his hope "that the Iranians' hints of their desire to end this event are real, and give Israel the opportunity to return to focusing on the main issue, which is the Gaza Strip, the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), and the kidnapped men and women among us." The military affairs correspondent for Channel 13 also pointed out that there is a state of silence in the army and security services in Israel regarding press reports in the United States regarding the attack that occurred yesterday at dawn on Iran.

Channel 14's military affairs correspondent, Hillel Rozin-Biton, believes that the level of tension is decreasing in Iran and in Israel as well, noting that Israel's main mission is in Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip , and the situation with Lebanon must also be addressed, as he said.

Channel 13 referred to what Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir wrote on the X platform, where he wrote the word “ridicule!”, following reports of a limited Israeli strike inside Iran.

On 19 April 2024 satellite images published by CNN do not appear to show any extensive damage to Iran’s Isfahan air base, which was allegedly targeted last night by Israel. The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images were taken around 10:18 a.m. local time — five hours after the strike. "There does not appear to be any extensive damage at an air base purportedly targeted by an Israeli military strike, according to exclusive satellite images obtained by CNN from Umbra Space. The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images were taken around 10:18 a.m. local time. There does not appear to be any large craters in the ground and there are no apparent destroyed buildings. Additional visual satellite imagery will be needed to check for burn scars - which cannot be seen by SAR images -- around the complex.""

Iran's supreme leader met with military commanders in a curiously cramped small room 21 April 2024 thanking them for the attack on Israel. He tellingly says, "how many missiles were launched and how many of them hit their target is not the primary question, what really matters is that Iran demonstrated its will-power during that operation." Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei admired the Iranian Armed Forces for manifesting the country’s power and determination in the international arena by conducting the recent retaliatory operation against the Israeli regime. In a meeting with top military commanders on Sunday, Ayatollah Khamenei, the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Armed Forces, appreciated the military forces’ efforts and their success amid the recent developments.

The Leader said the armed forces displayed a good image of their capabilities and might and also an admirable image of the Iranian nation and could prove the manifestation of power of the Iranian nation in the international arena. The recent achievements of the Iranian Armed Forces created a sense of grandeur and magnificence of Iran in the eyes of the world and the international observers, the Leader stated. Ayatollah Khamenei noted that the issue of the number of missiles fired by Iran during the Operation True Promise or the percentage of the missiles having hit the targets, on which the other side has concentrated, is a “secondary and peripheral subject” while the main topic is the display of the Iranian nation and armed forces’ power in the global arena.

Lauding the armed forces for exercising prudence in their measures, the Leader said, “Various incidents come at a cost and have achievements. What is important is to reduce the costs with prudence and add to the achievements, and this is what the (Iranian) Armed Forces did very well in the recent developments.”

The Commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Ismail Qaani, confirmed 15 May 2024 that Operation “The True Promise” was carried out according to precise calculations. Brigadier General Qaani revealed: The United States and NATO harnessed all their capabilities to defend Israel and confront Operation True Promise , and 7 to 8 military ships were placed in the Black Sea alone with the aim of confronting it. He pointed out that more than 200 warplanes were flying over the area from the beginning of the night of the operation until its end. Brigadier General Qaani added: Operation “The True Promise” was carried out in an area considered the densest in the world in terms of air defenses. He continued: France, Germany, and Britain, who brought their planes on the night of Operation “True Promise,” should not think that the matter is over, stressing that the occupation entity, America, and the West as a whole are too small to stand before the resistance front, and this is not a slogan, but rather their recognition. The mutual attacks between Iran and Israel in the first two weeks of April radically changed the strategic landscape in the Middle East, according to an analysis published by the American magazine Foreign Affairs. The analysis, written by Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle Eastern studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, confirms that “the escalating rivalry between Iran and Israel will shape regional security and drive Middle East politics for the foreseeable future.”

Nasr says, “Each side views the other as an arch enemy that must be defeated by military means. If the dangerous competition between them is left unchecked, it will destabilize the region and may ultimately lead to a conflict that drags the United States into a costly war.” According to Foreign Affairs, it is now Washington's responsibility "to formulate a diplomatic strategy to calm the escalatory forces that precipitated a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel in April, and which could do so again."

While Iran and Israel are currently intent on returning to the “shadow war” that has characterized their conflict for years, recent direct attacks on each other’s territory have increased the risk of miscalculation. According to Nasr's analysis, "Washington and its allies wanted to avoid such an escalation, as the United States and its partners across Europe and the Middle East moved quickly to prevent the crisis from escalating into war immediately after the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus."

Arab and European diplomats, carrying messages from Washington, also spoke directly to Iranian officials, urging them not to respond at all, but they also stressed that “if a response occurs, it must be within a limited scope, so as not to lead to further escalation,” according to what This was stated in the analysis of "Foreign Affairs". After the Iranian response to Israel, Washington and its allies redirected their efforts, this time relying on Israel to mitigate its response, as diplomatic efforts succeeded in containing the crisis, according to the magazine, where the writer of the analysis says: “The crisis made clear that the highest priority for the United States is to prevent war in Gaza.” "From igniting a regional fire, and dragging Washington into another costly war in the Middle East."

According to the analysis, "the fact that is in Washington's favor is that Iran and Israel do not want to enter into a direct conflict, despite their recent show of force." He added: "Iran realizes that Israel is a nuclear state with superior conventional capabilities, and that war with Israel will ultimately mean war with the United States. While Israel realizes that a larger conflict with Tehran would force Hezbollah to launch more missiles at Israeli cities and military installations."

Not many people know about the relations between Israel and Iran, except for mutual threats and intense diplomatic exchanges. The truth is that relations between them were not always as fraught. However, Nasr wrote in his analysis: “If the fragile truce between Iran and Israel is to hold, Washington must remain deeply engaged, working closely with Israel to address security concerns, and building on the diplomatic progress it has made with Iran in recent weeks.” But at the same time, the possibility of another dangerous escalation in the region looms, according to a Foreign Affairs analysis, which indicates that “the Israeli incursion into Rafah may precipitate another confrontation if Iran and its allies feel forced to act, as the crisis worsens.” humanity there, or to prevent the annihilation of Hamas.”

A long-term ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could also set the stage for further conflict, according to the analysis, “because it would free Israel to focus on Hezbollah - which it has indicated it intends to do so - or target Iran again in Syria.” The analysis stated, “Iran and Israel are not ready to fight now, but if each continues to view the other as a threat that can only be confronted militarily, a future conflict becomes certain.”

Nasr wrote: “If Washington’s goal is to avoid involvement in a regional war, it must ensure regional stability. And use its full diplomatic power to work toward ending the war in Gaza, followed by a serious and sustainable pursuit of establishing a viable Palestinian state.” He continued: "This result is necessary to build a broader regional order that works to restrict the escalatory motives that are now driving the Iranian and Israeli decision-making process." The analysis indicated that "the end of the Gaza war should not be the beginning of another war in Lebanon. Israel and Hezbollah will have to restore the cold peace that they maintained since their war in 2006 until October 7th."

He said, "Success on this front is coupled with steps toward a political solution to the Palestinian issue, and the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as between Israel and the rest of the Arab world."

The analysis in Foreign Policy magazine revealed that the recent Iranian attack on Israel demonstrated unprecedented cooperation from Arab countries in confronting the common Iranian threat, despite continuing tensions due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially with the ongoing war in Gaza.

According to the analysis, “The bright side of the attacks between Israel and Iran is that Washington and Tehran talked behind the scenes, as their communication was the key to avoiding disaster.” “As it charts its next diplomatic course, the United States should take advantage of this openness to reduce the risk of greater war,” the analysis said.