Ukraine - Armored Fighting Vehicle (AFV) Modernization
By the end of 2022, Ukraine had received more than 1,200 AFVs and APCs from the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Greece, Canada and Spain.Russia has even been kind enough to provide Ukraine with arms to defend itself. Abandoned Russian equipment – including 448 AFVs and 195 APCs doubled Ukraine’s combat capability. These captured Russian weapons made Moscow the largest supplier of heavy weapons for Ukraine, well ahead of the U.S. or other allies in sheer numbers.
In the West and in the USSR there were completely different ideas about the role of BMP on the battlefield. In the Soviet Union, BMP was actually a kind of "consumable material", which is needed a lot, and it should be cheap. Whereas in the West, on the contrary, the concept of an expensive "heavy" BMP prevailed, which should not only protect the crew and the landing party, but also be repairable after being hit by the enemy.
On 05 January 2023, a joint Press Statement by President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz announced that "the United States intends to supply Ukraine with Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, and Germany intends to provide Ukraine with Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles. Both countries plan to train Ukrainian forces on the respective systems." DoD clarified on 06 January 2023, that, as part of of an additional security assistance package to Ukraine, this would include 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles with 500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 250,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced during a 04 January 2023 phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that France would supply Ukraine with French-made light AMX-10 RC armored combat vehicles.
The German government's 04 April 2022 approval of the transfer of the 56 Pbv-501s [ upgraded BMP-1] to Ukraine reportedly came after an earlier request from Czech authorities was denied. The need for Germany to authorize the deal is a product of the original sale to Sweden of these Soviet-era vehicles, which it had inherited from the East German military. The Swedish government then sold them to the Czech Republic. There are reports that they will need to be refurbished before they can return to service.
In July 2022, Slovenia sent 35 Yugoslav-era M-80A armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, the largest donation of weapons to Ukraine by Slovenia to date.
On 05 January 2023, US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz published a joint statement that the US Administration will ship Bradley armored vehicles to Ukraine, while Germany will ship Marder vehicles.
Germany will provide the Armed Forces with about 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles. Apart from the representatives of the post-communist Left Party and the right-wing populist "Alternative for Germany", representatives of all other parliamentary factions - both ruling parties and opposition parties - welcomed the decision of the German government to transfer several dozen Marder BMPs to Ukraine and, in addition to the one promised by the United States, battery of the Patriot air defense complex.
Many in Berlin believed that soon Germany and other NATO countries will start supplying the armed forces with Western-style tanks as well, and later, possibly, fighter jets.
At the government press conference on 06 January 2023, the chancellor's official representative, Steffen Hebestreit, said that it was planned to equip one Ukrainian battalion with German Marder BMPs, which will require approximately 40 such vehicles. Deliveries should be made in the current quarter. And the training of Ukrainian crews in Germany, which will last approximately eight weeks, will begin in the near future.
Gebeshreit could not answer the question from which stocks German AFVs will be transferred to Ukrainians - from the arsenals of the Bundeswehr, which currently number approximately 350 units of such equipment, or from the warehouses of the Rheinmetall manufacturing plant. Back in the summer of 2022, this concern offered to supply Ukraine with 100 such machines that were at its disposal. Then the German government refused. Meanwhile, 40 Marder BMPs have been sold to Greece, but the remaining 60 can be quickly canned.
How much it will cost to supply 40 such machines was initially unknown that one Marder AFV, depending on the modification, costs from 890,000 euros to 1,500,000. Steffen Gebestreit named three possible sources of funding. One of them is a special EU fund created to pay for arms supplies to Ukraine. From the arsenals of the Bundeswehr, he explained, these machines can be transferred free of charge. After all, the chancellor's representative added, "there is Ukraine's willingness to pay for the supply of some types of weapons."
Marder is not a new technique, it has been in service with the Bundeswehr for about half a century, but it has been constantly improved and modernized. The latest models, along with a 20 mm cannon and a machine gun, are also equipped with anti-tank guided missiles. The compact 25-ton vehicle, which develops a speed of up to 65 km/h, is able not only to safely deliver 9 infantrymen to advanced positions, but also to hit tanks and low-altitude targets, such as helicopters.
Until recently, official Berlin explained its refusal to supply tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine mainly with two arguments. Firstly, the desire to act only in coordination with the allies, and secondly, the need to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs.
The first condition can be considered fulfilled: the chancellor agreed to supply the Marder BMP with the presidents of the USA and France. But what about the second one? Why didn't Berlin think that Ukraine needed such military equipment until recently, but now it thinks otherwise? What has changed?
Answering this question from a DW correspondent, Steffen Gebeshreit referred to the so-called circular deliveries , in which European countries handed Ukraine old Soviet equipment that they had inherited, and in return received new Western equipment. According to him, stocks of such weapons and ammunition for them are running out.
In addition, the chancellor's representative added, "the military situation in Ukraine is changing, there are large-scale strikes by the Russian side that are destroying the infrastructure, so we reassess the situation in Ukraine every time and decide what the next steps should be, including taking into account the upcoming spring." Now, as he noted, the situation is rather "static", but "if the weather becomes better, if it warms up, then we anticipate the expansion of military operations."
Anton Hofreiter, chairman of the Bundestag Committee on European Affairs, a representative of the Green Party, which is part of the government coalition in Germany, however, believes that the decision on the Marder AFV is too late. "If we had provided these vehicles earlier, fewer Ukrainian soldiers would have died, as Western BMPs provide much more reliable protection for servicemen than the partially antediluvian equipment that was supplied to Ukraine as part of the so-called circular exchanges," he said on the morning of January 6. - In addition, In this case, Ukraine could liberate more territories captured by Russia, and protect the civilian population living there from Russian terror."
According to the deputy, the government of Germany - the country that is the main manufacturer of Leopard 2 tanks - should now promptly take the initiative of joint European supplies of such armored vehicles to Ukraine. Liberals, who are also part of the ruling coalition, actively support this idea. "The one who wants the end of this war must give Ukraine what it needs to win. Only the victory of Ukraine can restore peaceful order in Europe," the head of the youth organization of liberals, Franziska Brandmann, is convinced.
Carlo Masala, a professor from the Bundeswehr University in Munich, called the German government's decision correct, albeit belated: "If Ukraine had received the Marder BMP last summer, it would have already advanced further." At the same time, he noted, these deliveries open the door for others: "In a couple of months, we will probably be talking about combat planes and combat tanks."
The head of the Bundestag defense committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, insists that now, without waiting for a decision on Leopard 2 tanks, training of Ukrainian crews to work with such equipment should begin.
Can the Marder BMP change the course of the war? No, they can't, even together with the American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Thomas Wiegold believes: "This, of course, is not the number that Ukraine needs, so their number will not change the situation in any way, but these are the first combat armored vehicles that the West is sending. I think , which is already a significant change. Everything will depend on where Ukraine places these vehicles - most likely, in certain areas of the front where intense fighting is going on, and there they can play a decisive role."
Powerful western tanks are needed for a real breakthrough. "Without main battle tanks, you cannot move forward, you cannot ensure high mobility and full firepower, especially during the transition to the offensive. For defense, you can do without them, but if we are talking about an offensive with the aim of regaining territory, then you need main battle tanks." - Austrian military-political expert, former head of the Institute for Peacebuilding and Conflict Management of the National Defense Academy of Austria General Walter Feichtinger explained.
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