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Ground Forces - Modernization

“Freedom must be armed better than tyranny,” President Volodymyr Zelensky observed. One of the characteristics of the Ukrainian war has been that the country's military has been receiving a barrage of foreign weapons as the war has progressed. They did not have much time to train their troops in the use of weapons.

This war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods. Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valerii Zaluzhnyi said this in an interview with The Economist 02 November 2023. "It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods. They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat," he said.

He wrote about this in a sensational article by The Economist entitled “Modern trench warfare and how to win it.” He noted that the full-scale invasion of a terrorist state provoked the beginning of the largest unprecedented security crisis on a global scale since the end of World War II. According to Zaluzhnyi, technology will play a decisive role. At the same time, he said that the current battlefield reminded him of a major conflict that happened a century ago. "Just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate… There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough," he said.

The statements also excited Republicans in the US Congress. They again draw the attention of the Biden administration to the fact that “Zelensky’s goals do not correspond to reality.” The assessment of a senior Ukrainian general that the conflict with Russia has reached a dead end, writes Politico, inflames partisan passions in Congress. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny's "stunning confession" is echoing on Capitol Hill, where Republicans say his comments are a reason to rethink how much American support for Kiev is possible.

Zaluzhnyi noted that Ukraine would need something new to break the stalemate. "The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other," he added.

Zaluzhny himself in a separate essay for The Economist: “Ukraine’s armed forces need key military capabilities and technologies to break out of this kind of war. The most important of them is aviation.”

1. The Commander-in-Chief said first of all, of course, Ukraine needed to improve air power. “Basic weapons such as missiles and projectiles remain necessary. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces need key military capabilities and technologies to break out of this kind of war. The most important of these is aviation. Control of the skies is essential for large-scale ground operations,” Zaluzhny wrote in an essay for The Economist. He noted that at the beginning of the war, Ukraine had 120 combat aircraft, of which only a third could be used. At the same time, the Russian Air Force, as Zaluzhny emphasized, suffered huge losses, and Ukrainian forces destroyed more than 550 enemy air defense systems, but the Russian Federation maintains a significant advantage and continues to create new attack squadrons. “This advantage made it difficult for us to advance. Russian air defense systems are increasingly preventing our planes from flying. Our defense is doing the same with the Russian Federation. Thus, Russian drones have taken over most of the role of manned aircraft in terms of reconnaissance and air strikes,” the general explained. Zaluzhny noted that drones should also be part of the response to the actions of the Russian Federation. Thus, Ukraine needs to launch massive strikes using decoys and attack drones in order to overload Russian air defense systems.
2. Second he said that Ukraine needed to improve counter-battery warfare with the means that are available from partners. Zaluzhny pointed out counter-battery fire is defeating enemy artillery. In this war, as in most past wars, artillery, rocket and rocket fire accounts for 60-80% of all combat missions, the general added. “When we first received Western weapons last year, we were able to detect and strike Russian artillery. But the effectiveness of weapons like the Excalibur, a US GPS-guided projectile, has declined sharply due to improvements in Russian electronic warfare,” he explained. Meanwhile, Russia's own counter-battery fire has improved, Zaluzhny said. This is largely due to the use of Lancet loitering munitions, which work in conjunction with reconnaissance drones, as well as the increased production of precision projectiles that can be aimed by ground spotters. He noted that Ukraine has currently managed to achieve parity with the Russian Federation due to a smaller amount of more accurate firepower, but this may not last long. “We need to build our local GPS fields using ground-based antennas, not just satellites, to make our precision-guided munitions more accurate in the face of Russian interference. We need to make greater use of kamikaze drones to strike Russian artillery. And we need our partners to send us better artillery and reconnaissance equipment capable of detecting Russian equipment,” Zaluzhny explained.
3. Third priority for the Defense Forces is electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, such as jamming communications and navigation signals. “EW is the key to winning the drone war. Over the past decade, Russia has modernized its electronic warfare forces, creating a new branch of the military and creating 60 new types of equipment. In this area, it surpasses us: 65% of our jamming platforms at the beginning of the war were produced in Soviet times,” said the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine has already created many of its own electronic defense systems that can prevent jamming, but it also needs greater access to electronic intelligence from Ukrainian allies.
4. Fourth - mine-explosive technologies, which will make it possible to pass deep Russian minefields. Even Western supplies, such as Norwegian mine-clearing tanks, have proven insufficient given the scale of Russian minefields, which stretch 20 kilometers in places, he said. “Technology is the answer,” Zaluzhny said. "Currently, the enemy’s minefields in particularly important directions are dense and reach a depth of 15–20 km. Their cover is provided by reconnaissance UAVs, which effectively detect our detachments (groups) of barriers and direct fire weapons at them. If our troops successfully mine passages into the cost zone, the enemy quickly restores minefields in these areas using such remote mining engineering systems as "Agriculture"."
5. And fifth is mobilization, which is also extremely necessary to increase reserves. Zaluzhny noted that Ukraine’s ability to prepare reserves on its territory is limited, and there are also problems in the legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities. “We are introducing a unified register of conscripts, we must expand the category of citizens who can be called up for training or mobilization. We are also introducing “combat training,” which involves placing mobilized and trained personnel in experienced combat units for their training,” said the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Summing up, he emphasized that Russia should not be underestimated, because although the enemy suffered heavy losses and used up a lot of ammunition, the Russian Federation “will have superiority in weapons, equipment, missiles and ammunition for a considerable time.” It should be noted that the above components do not in any way neutralize the role and place of missiles and ammunition, artillery systems, missile systems, electronic warfare equipment, and other types of weapons and military equipment provided by partners. They only complement them in the context of increasing the capabilities of the defense forces thanks to new technological solutions and innovative approaches on the way out of a positional crisis into a collision.

In February 2022, a Ukrainian military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated: "Russia has also begun arming up and digging in for a coming offensive. The Ukrainian military estimates that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armoured vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for a new wave of attacks."

Kyiv’s backers had delivered 471 new tanks since the start of the war, with a further 286 still to arrive as of 06 July 2023, according to the Ukraine Support Tracker database maintained by Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Combined with a tally of equipment lost or captured by the open source intelligence group Oryx, widely considered to be conservative, the figures indicated that Ukraine’s tank fleet had grown since the start of the invasion last year [frm just under 1,000 to about 1,500], even as Russia’s had halved [from 3,400 to 1,400]. The gap also narrowed in terms of artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems, although by much smaller margins.

Parliamentary testimony given to the legislature’s defense committee by UK Chief of the Defense Staff Tony Radakin on 04 July 2023 noted: “Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army... Last year it fired 10 million artillery shells but at best can produce 1 million shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 tanks a year.”

From 1991 until the end of 2021, Ukraine imported few major arms. As a result of military aid from the USA and many European states following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine became the 3rd biggest importer of major arms during 2022 (after Qatar and India) “Even if the conflict in Ukraine dies down – and nobody can predict whether that will happen – Ukraine is going to need a military that can defend the territory it clawed back” from Russia, US Under Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl told members of the House Armed Services Committee on 28 February 2023. “We do not know the course and trajectory of the conflict.... The conflict may end six months from now, or it may end two years from now or three years from now.” The Ukrainian government has declared that the only outcome it will accept is retaking all lands it claims sovereignty over. It also wants Moscow to pay war reparations and for the Russian leadership to stand trial before an international court.

According to a report published on 13March 2023 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in 2022 Ukraine became the world's third largest arms importer. Between 1991 and 2021, it purchased insignificant amounts of basic weapons, but now, due to military assistance provided to Kiev by the United States and European states, the country has risen in the list of top importers. At the end of last year, it took the third place after Qatar and India. Ukraine received more than 117,000 weapons and weapons from Western countries. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

In Ukraine, as someone said, the "zoo" is a kaleidoscope, a variety of samples of armored personnel carriers, artillery, and other types of weapons. Many foreign observers note that one of the strongest impressions they have was how quickly Ukrainians were able to master technology, and also that they can use this technology more effectively than the manufacturers of this technology anticipated. And in Ukraine, anyone will tell you that you can get service in Ukrainian garages no worse than at a certified maintenance station.

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi told The Economist magazine 16 December 2022. "I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs (infantry fighting vehicles), 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd," he said. (The Economist noted those figures alone are “bigger than the total armored forces of most European armies.”) Open-source military tracking site Oryx reported that while Ukraine had lost over 300 tanks and 200 armored vehicles in the war, Russia had lost over 1,500 tanks since it invaded its western neighbor.

Ukraine is assembling an armored division of tanks and IFVs that will be capable of liberating all its territory including Crimea by this summer, former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe Ben Hodges said 21 January 2023. “Ukraine will continue building up an armored force – a division or more – that is trained and prepared to serve as the breakthrough formation for the next major offensive phase of the campaign. I’d anticipate that it’ll be at least three months before they’re able to do that. It will be built around Ukrainian armor that they already have or have captured, but Western tanks, IFVs, and artillery will be key to making it lethal. I can’t be confident of the delivery of tanks to complement the IFVs that are now being delivered, but it does seem that the dam is about to finally break on Western tanks.”

Undoubtedly, military equipment and weapons provided to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by partners played an important, and sometimes leading, role in repelling and deterring Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. But Afghanistan was an example when modern weapons and equipment failed to make a difference for people who did not want to fight for their country. Instead, the Ukrainian army had shown mass heroism combined with high professionalism, while the entire Ukrainian nation had shown remarkable resilience.

NATO member states have provided Kiev with scores of heavy weapons since December 2021, including 440 tanks and 1,510 infantry fighting vehicles, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said on 20 February 2023. According to officials, Ukraine has also received 1,170 anti-air and 655 artillery systems, as well as 9,800 rockets for mobile multiple rocket launchers. “Most of the military equipment supplied by the West has been destroyed by the Russian forces,” the SVR claimed.

Mechanized and armored force, which make a basis of the Army, execute tasks of holding the occupied areas, lines and positions tasks of enemy's impacts repelling, of penetrating enemy's defence lines, of defeating the enemy forces, of capturing the important areas, lines and objects, operate in structure of marine and landing troops. Mechanized and armored forces consist of mechanized and armoured divisions and brigades. Formations and units of mechanized and armored forces are equipped by: T-64, T-72, T-80, T-84 tanks; BTR-60, BTR-70, BTR-80 armoured personnel-carriers; BMP-1, BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles; other types of armaments.

Answering a question in an interview with ZN.UA why Germany, one of the world's largest arms exporters, is refusing to supply Ukraine with weapons, German Ambassador to Ukraine Anka Feldguzen referred to the historical background and peculiarities of German upbringing. "For Germany, historically Eastern Europe is a special part of the world, we were all brought up with the idea that German soldiers, German weapons will never be here," said the German ambassador. Feldgusen noted that it was difficult to find a majority in the Bundestag "to change the mindset about weapons for the region."

The flow of Western weapons from Ukrainian partners began before February 24, 2022, precisely because of the growing threat from Russia. The preventive strengthening of the Ukrainian army was to increase the price that Russia would have to pay for aggression. The volume of supply and quality of weapons from Western partners really changed the balance on the battlefield. From painful losses, the aggressor army already moved to shameful defeats. On the other hand, no one initially expected the real amount of obligations that Kyiv’s allies would have to assume.

In April 2022, Kyiv’s allies united into the Advisory Group on Defence of Ukraine, now widely known at the place of the first meeting — Ramstein. At regular meetings in the “Ramstein” format, current problems and requests of the Ukrainian Defence Forces are discussed, plans are drawn up: what, when, and in what quantity can be provided by Western partners.

In January 2023, it was reported that in the new tranche of American aid, a special focus is put on transferring armoured vehicles to Ukraine. As in the previous stages, this is the response of the partners to the practical needs and requests of Ukraine.

In a December interview, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi said, “I know that I can defeat the enemy. But I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 howitzers. Then, in my opinion, it is quite realistic to reach the borders as of February 23.”

The US announced that it would give Ukraine 50 of its Bradley IFVs with 500 TOW anti-tank missiles, 100 M113 armoured personnel carriers, 55 MRAP armoured vehicles, and 138 HMMWV transporters. In early January 2023, Germany announced the transfer of the Marder IFVs to Ukraine. France joined the partners by promising to share their rather particular AMX-10 RC “wheeled tanks.”

Tanks and armoured vehicles have already been delivered to Ukraine before, in particular, American M113 armoured personnel carriers. In addition, our country received over 300 ?-72 tanks and their analogues and Soviet planes, including 18 Su-25, from allies. Almost all Soviet tanks that remained in service with neighbouring countries were handed over to us. Today, on the other hand, the discussion is already about Ukraine receiving Western tanks, which, experts hope, will be able to ensure a qualitative advantage on the battlefield like HIMARS did back in the day.

On January 11, Poland was the first to announce the decision to transfer 14 modern Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Germany also stated that it was ready to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but only when other NATO members agree to it. According to Sky News, in addition, the Armed Forces can count on British Challenger 2 main battle tanks.

The reduction in the military stocks of Western countries helping Ukraine should not be viewed only negatively, since the equipment transferred to Kyiv fulfills its main task, helping to weaken the Russian Armed Forces. This statement was made on 18 February 2023 in Munich at a security conference by the head of the British government, Rishi Sunak.

“If you are a European country and you have military equipment in your warehouses, ask yourself what it is designed to protect you from, what is its purpose. And if some of this equipment from the arsenals now helped to disable a Russian tank, would it would not be exactly what it was in the warehouse for and what it should have been used for?" said the Prime Minister. "So I do not think that the depletion of military reserves should always be considered a problem and considered strictly in a negative way, because with this they were created for a purpose. So even when our arsenals are depleted, if they contribute to the weakening of the Russian military, this helps to strengthen our security."

Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin also said in March 2023 that the United States pledged to provide Kiev with more than 8.5 thousand Javelin ATGMs, over 1.6 thousand Stinger MANPADS, 232 howitzers and more than 2 million artillery ammunition. In addition, Washington is transferring to Ukraine 38 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, as well as ammunition for them, a Patriot air defense battery, eight NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems and other air defense systems.

US and NATO officials started emerging from the woodwork in July and August to explain why the Ukrainian military’s much-touted counteroffensive was failing to achieve results, blaming Kiev’s “tactics” and assuring the problem had nothing to do with weapons. Now, arms manufacturers seem to have found a new excuse.

Ukrainian grunts’ limited training time using advanced NATO heavy weapons, and improper use of some of the hardware is responsible for high breakdown rates, a report in US business media citing defense officials and representatives of major Western arms makers has suggested.

Citing the example of the Panzerhaubitze 2000, a 155 mm German-made self-propelled howitzer, the outlet pointed out that Ukrainian artillerymen get just five weeks of training to use the heavy gun, compared to four months Bundeswehr soldiers get.

Lack of maintenance is another problem, with weapons systems’ makers assuring that the systems would work fine if maintained properly and on time. “If they take care of the electronics, it works,” Armin Papperger, CEO of Panzerhaubitze 2000-maker Rheinmetall, assured, commenting on reports of his company's howitzers catching fire or needing to be loaded manually after the failure of their automatic systems.

Overusing of equipment to its breaking point is another problem, according to the report, with one Ukrainian soldier operating a AHS Krab, a Polish-made 155 mm self-propelled tracked howitzer, saying his Crab was used so much that its barrel tore off.

Major Western weapons giants including Rheinmetall, Lockheed Martin, and BAE Systems have enjoyed skyrocketing profits and record production feeding deliveries of weapons systems to Ukraine, admitting that they see Ukraine as a testing ground for their products.

A Ukrainian commander in charge of artillery said the more sophisticated Western howitzers in service with Ukraine’s military are capricious when it comes to repairs, with over 30 percent out of action and in the shop at any one time, compared to about 15 percent for the older, simpler systems like the M777, a British-made towed howitzer, with the tradeoff being that the latter is slower to deploy and more vulnerable to Russian strikes.

Some of the West’s modern heavy weapons are not suitable for the Ukraine conflict because their design has been shaped by decades of fighting involving much weaker opponents, the Wall Street Journal reported on 28 Septembe 2023. “A lot of Western armor doesn’t work here because it had been created not for an all-out war but for conflicts of low or medium intensity,” a Ukrainian promoter of drone warfare named Taras Chmut told the outlet. “If you throw it into a mass offensive, it just doesn’t perform.”

His opinion was one of several cited by the WSJ, as it argued that the prevalence of cheap drones in Ukraine has affected the fighting so much that NATO-promoted approaches simply cannot work there. The US and its allies have trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops over the years. This summer, they expected the Ukrainians to put their skills and Western weapons to use and breach Russian defensive lines in the south of the front line, according to media reports.

The kind of combined-arms maneuvers Washington advocated “may no longer be possible in principle,” the WSJ suggested. Drones swiftly detect any significant force, calling in fire. And kamikaze variants are capable of disabling much more expensive weapon systems. Chmut, whose Come Back Alive foundation raises funds to procure drones for the Ukrainian military, said Western nations would be better off providing a larger quantity of cheaper, simpler systems.

Similar Ukrainian complaints about NATO’s assumptions were published by Le Monde on 27 Septembe 2023. The French newspaper interviewed frontline troops about the benefit – or lack thereof – of the training they received from foreign backers. One anecdote mentioned by Le Monde claimed that a German-trained recruit had to be sent back, because he only knew how to operate a column formation. Kiev stopped using these after suffering heavy losses in the initial push against Russia in June.

“I repeatedly told them that the NATO manuals didn’t apply to Ukraine,” a soldier said of his training in England. “Their reply was that that’s how it was, everything was predetermined.”

“Our soldiers are more experienced than the ones who are supposed to train them. Many of them have been fighting for ten years,” another one said. “We are a long way away from NATO standards.”

Kiev blamed a shortage of Western support in relation to its summer counteroffensive for its underwhelming results so far. US officials cited by the media argued that Kiev unnecessarily wasted resources, refusing to concentrate forces for a decisive strike, and was too averse to incurring casualties.

During Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the leaders of most countries crossed a number of “red lines” that they themselves established. One of these “red lines” is a ban on the use of Western weapons to strike military targets on Russian territory. Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Advisor to the Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Andriy Veselovsky spoke about this on the FREEDOM TV channel 10 June 2024.

“Recently, a lot has changed in this matter. Let me remind you that for most political leaders of world countries, at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the “red line” was Crimea, in particular the Crimean Bridge. There was an unspoken ban that Ukraine could not launch fire strikes on these targets. The situation began to change after a series of first successful attacks on the bridge. The understanding has come that this is Ukrainian territory and it needs to be liberated,” the expert said.

According to him, for a long time, Ukraine’s partners were held back by the myth created by Russian propaganda about the power of Russia, its army, etc. “Everyone was very afraid of the terrible Russian Federation. And they thought that after the invasion of Ukraine there would be nothing left of Ukraine. It turned out not. And the Russian army turned out to be not the second army in the world. Therefore, everything else can be questioned. Soon the Crimean Bridge lost its sacredness,” commented Veselovsky.

He added that the use of Western weapons to strike military targets on the territory of the Russian Federation will significantly facilitate the work of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). “I think that the first targets of Ukrainian fire strikes will be the Russian armed forces, weapons and air defense systems in Crimea. And also airfields from which planes fly to bomb Ukraine. And note that at present our partners perceive this as part of routine military activity, as a reflection of aggression. At the same time, everyone understands that Ukraine will not allow itself to hit any residential or public facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation. And this is trust and reputation,” summed up Andriy Veselovsky.

US DOD Inspector General Robert P. Storch announced 13 June 2024 that “The use of Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) is a critical component of U.S. policy in crises,” said IG Storch. “Compliance with applicable policies for valuing defense articles provided under PDA is of the utmost importance. While the DoD has already acknowledged some difficulties in this area, improperly valuing defense articles provided under PDA risks undermining confidence in how the DoD reports the using PDA for Ukraine and other partners.”

In June 2023, the DoD acknowledged a $6.2 billion error stemming from its overvaluation of PDA provided to the Government of Ukraine (GoU). From the first 37 PDA Execute Orders, the OIG selected a nonstatistical sample of general equipment (GE) and operating materials and supplies (OM&S) defense articles. The audit team reviewed revaluation data for about 2,300 pieces of GE of defense articles subject to depreciation, such as Humvees, radar systems, tanks, and armored personnel carriers, and similar data for nearly 23,000,000 pieces of OM&S, such as ammunition and missiles that are expended, and not subject to depreciation. The DoD OIG determined that based on its sample review, the DoD overvalued defense articles provided to the GoU by an additional $1.9 billion, comprised of $653 million for GE and $1.25 billion for OM&S. Combined with the previously acknowledged $6.2 billion error, the total of overvalued defense articles provided through PDA is $8.1 billion.

“The identification of an additional $1.9 billion in overvalued defense articles in our sample, on top of the previously announced $6.2 billion, shows that the DoD and its Components failed to fully implement the updated policies associated with the DoD Comptroller’s instructions in the spring of 2023,” added IG Storch.

During 2024 Ukrainian engineers developed more than 200 different ground-based robotic systems that are being used in the war against Russia. The robots conduct reconnaissance, fight, mine territories, deliver ammunition to the front line, evacuate the wounded, and replace Ukrainian Defenders. Soldiers and manufacturers are convinced - this is the beginning of a new era - robot warfare.