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It is a very hot summer world-wide, but it is 
nowhere as hot as in Russian-occupied Crimea. 
Must be such a blast to be over there.

Russo-Ukraine War - July 2023

A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine in response to the appeal of the leaders of the "Donbass republics" for help. That attack is a blatant violation of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. Putin stressed that Moscow's goal is the demilitarization and denazification of the country. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

Kiev’s goal is to push south toward the Black Sea and sever the land bridge to Crimea – cutting off Russia’s ground access to Kherson Region – or at least advance far enough to bring the strategically key peninsula within artillery range. Russia has relied on Crimea as the base for its Black Sea fleet and a key supply hub for its forces in Donbass.

Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense, explained January 24, 2023 why spring and early summer will be decisive. "We see the replacement of commanders - Gerasimov became the commander. He assumed the full power. Second, they finished the first stage of mobilization. During this period, the creation of mobilization reserves and formation of divisions took place, their preparation took place. Now they have all started to advance or to the border with Ukraine - these are the Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov, Voronezh regions - entered the temporarily occupied territory. Troops were regrouped. They are preparing for a powerful offensive," he said on the air of a national telethon, answering the question why the spring and early summer will be decisive.

Skibitsky said that Russia can raise 500,000 soldiers for a war with Ukraine, but there is a problem with this. "There is a problem. We saw it on the example of Belarus. The second mechanized division of the First Tank Army was being trained on the territory of Belarus. According to their plans, it should be ready for combat use on December 1. But there was one problem - people were caught up, but there is no equipment. All the equipment of this division was destroyed on the territory of Ukraine since February last year. The capacity of the landfills themselves on the territory of the Russian Federation - according to our estimates, they can accommodate no more than 200,000. Because of this, they began to actively use Belarus. Now, according to various estimates, about 100,000-150,000 are in test areas," the intelligence representative added.

Republicans charge that Biden’s support of Zelensky can only come from Zelensky’s knowledge of Jjoe Biden, and not just because he was taking care of Biden’s son. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) insinuated 05 July 2023 that President Volodymyr Zelensky himself “knows” about alleged kickbacks from Ukrainian oligarchs as part of a “bribery scheme” with President Joe Biden. Comer, who had previously called Ukraine an “adversary,” then implied Zelensky was essentially extorting Biden for military aid by using Burisma as leverage against the president. Comer suggested that Biden’s support for Ukraine in its war with Russia was due to his son Hunter’s previous work with Ukrainian energy company Burisma.

"I am concerned about the amount of money we’re giving Ukraine and the fact that there’s no real oversight, there’s no inspector general, there’s no good accounting of this money and you wonder, is it because Joe Biden’s scared?” Comer wondered. “I mean he has a lot of explaining to do about this Burisma deal.” Comer continued “This Burisma deal is not over ... And more evidence is coming in every day like what we found with the IRS form 1023 where he was alleged to have taken a bribe over the Burisma stuff, Joe Biden was alleged to have taken a $5 million bribe, so we’re continuing to dig into this, we’re following the money..."

On 07 July 2023, US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs Colin Cole said that the UAF is advancing at a slower pace than hoped in the United States, but it is too early to judge the results. The American television channel CNN reported in early July that Western countries were nervous because the advance of Ukrainian troops was measured in meters, not kilometers. The slow pace of the counteroffensive means Western support could wane if the conflict drags on, CNN noted.

UK Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace insisted 12 July 2023 Ukraine was pressing forward and is reaching lines of Russian troops without “much behind them”. Wallace declared Russia is “not as strong as we think it is“ as he insisted Ukraine is making crucial gains in its counter-offensive. The popular Defence Secretary did however concede the Ukrainian counter-offensive is not going as swiftly as Western allies had hoped. The Defence Secretary said: “The main line of defence in some parts, the Ukrainians are 300 metres away. And instead of there being lots of Russians behind those lines, there isn’t much behind them.

“Senior U.S. officials,” the New York Times reported 14 July 2023, have “privately expressed frustration that some Ukrainian commanders... fearing increased casualties among their ranks” have recently “reverted to old habits — decades of Soviet-style training in artillery barrages — rather than sticking with the Western tactics and pressing harder to breach the Russian defenses.” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, asked an equally salient question of his US counterparts: “Why don’t they come and do it themselves?”

The New York Times reported 15 July 2023 Ukrainian troops had lost as much as 20 percent of the weaponry they used in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive against Russia. The report, which cites US and European officials, said the losses include tanks supplied by Western nations. The report adds that the situation improved somewhat after Ukraine focused more on using long-range missiles to wear down Russian forces. The report goes on to say that the counteroffensive had in places ground to a halt.

Ukraine's deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said on 16 July 2023 that Ukrainian forces are advancing south of Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region. She added that the fighting has been fierce, and the positions of the two warring sides shift several times a day.

Randy Mott noted 17 July 2023 that the math does not work due to the extent of the lines from satellite photos and the number of Russians available. Recent information shows units pulled to the front line from behind the "zero line" (name used by the Russians). Russian reserves have also been pulled to the front to counter Ukrainian advances. Those advances are still made without the bulk of the Ukraine assembled offensive mobile strike force of ten or more brigades. The Chechen "Tik Tok" unit was also pulled up to face advances by Ukraine in Klishchiivka, retreating shortly after being engaged. The same Chechens dispatched to chase Prirozhin's Wagoner group after it hit Rostov. This indicates that there are relatively few available units back in reserve at this point.

Ukrainians had drawn the Russians into moving up artillery closer to the front by their advances, placing Russian artillery under devasting drone, HIMARS and 155mm strikes. So the "defense in depth" plan appeared to have been abandoned before it actually started.

Lacking the manpower to cover large areas of the lines, Russians seemed to have opted to engage Ukrainian units to at least try to dictate where the battles would occur: waiting in defense would spread the troops too thin to be effective. Ukrainians have been effective at staging "feints," like the 47th Mechanized assault early on, that convinced the Russians to deploy reserves.

The empircal evidence of this was that the front line ("zero") was to be manned by "mobliks" or conscripts as a disposable screen. But the combat reports now show more veteran units engaged on the frontline (that is a relative term since those units are now heavily reinforced with conscripts to make up for heavy looses). Reports from Rusisan generals indicate that units were down to 20-30% strength at one point and have been flushed out to 70% average strength by conscripts.

The Ukrainians to preserve their troops and equipment have set up Rusians in "kill boxes" on the front and taken out artillery that would normally be much furfther in the rear. This has led to very high artillery losses for the Russians.

Mott concluded that as of July 17, the Russian defense is now very "brittle," meaning that it is overloaded on the "zero" line and taking heavy losses. The continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian infantry and artillery units will hollow out the defense beofre the break-through attack occurs.

The UK Ministry of Defence reported 19 July 2023 that since the start of July 2023, there has highly likely been an increase in fighting around the lower reaches of the Dnipro River. As well as intense combat on the eastern bank around the small Ukrainian bridgehead near the ruined Antonivsky Bridge, small units of Russian and Ukrainian troops have also been contesting islands in the Dnipro delta. Both sides were using small, fast motorboats, and Ukraine has successfully used tactical one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles to destroy some Russian boats. Russia faced a dilemma in deciding whether to respond to these threats by strengthening its Dnipro Group of Forces at the expense of the stretched units facing the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

US officials were reportedly concerned that Ukraine was not making enough progress in its much-lauded counteroffensive, the Washington Post reported on 18 July 2023 citing anonymous sources. According to the outlet, Washington is urging Kiev to commit to a decisive breakthrough as Ukrainian commanders have yet to employ the large-scale offensive tactics they were taught by Western instructors. An unnamed US official explained to the Washington Post that the West had trained Ukrainian forces in integrated offensive maneuvers, as well as provided mine-clearing equipment, and stressed that it was “paramount” that Kiev’s troops quickly apply those capabilities to breach Russia’s defenses.

Western officials reportedly criticized Ukraine’s military for embracing an attrition-based approach aimed at firing artillery and missiles at command, transport and logistics sites at the rear of Russian positions instead of using Western-style “combined arms” operations that involve large-scale maneuvers featuring tanks, armored vehicles, infantry, artillery, and air power, the outlet said.

The Washington Post also noted that Kiev has so far only fielded “four of a dozen trained brigades in the current campaign.” Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have pointed out that Ukrainian commanders have chosen to embrace more low-profile advances involving groups of 15 to 50 soldiers in order to preserve manpower. Kiev’s attempts to breach Russian defenses had so far been met with “overwhelming artillery, anti tank missiles, loitering munitions and helicopter fire” which have caused significant losses. Russia’s extensive use of drones has also presented a challenge that “not even American forces – for all their combat experience in recent decades – have faced on this scale,” the Post said.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have pointed out that Ukrainian commanders had chosen to embrace more low-profile advances involving groups of 15 to 50 soldiers in order to preserve manpower. The Washington Post also noted that Kiev has so far only fielded “four of a dozen trained brigades in the current campaign.”

Kiev’s attempts to breach Russian defenses have so far been met with “overwhelming artillery, anti tank missiles, loitering munitions and helicopter fire” which have caused significant losses. Russia’s extensive use of drones has also presented a challenge that “not even American forces – for all their combat experience in recent decades – have faced on this scale,” the Post said.

The slow pace of Ukraine's counteroffensive in the ongoing NATO-Russia proxy war led to increasingly louder demands from Kiev asking the US and NATO to send F-16 fighters to the country to give its ground forces some semblance of air support. US officials have privately questioned whether adding the multi-role fighters to the battlefield would improve Kiev’s position, given the dense Russian air defense network which would be able to target enemy fighters even more readily than NATO-delivered drones, rockets and missiles.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) during the counter-offensive are mainly due to minefields. This statement was made on 18 July 2023 by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CNS) of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley. "The Ukrainian losses in this offensive are due not so much to Russian air power as to minefields," Milley said at a Pentagon press conference following a regular meeting of a Western-created multilateral contact group that coordinates the supply of weapons and military equipment to Kiev. This meeting was held via video link.

"So it's about minefields. The problem that needs to be solved now is minefields, not the air force," the general said, commenting on the lack of military aviation in Kiev. According to Milli, the West is actively supplying Ukraine with mine-clearing equipment and the like in order to provide Kyiv with the ability to conduct a counteroffensive. "I am sure that they (AFU - TASS note) can achieve this. Especially if they use the tactics and skills that they were instilled in, and also conduct these operations at night, which will deprive the Russians of the ability to use air power," the American military leader argued.

He suggested that it was too early to assess the counter-offensive and say that it had bogged down. "It's far from a failure, in my opinion. I think it's too early to draw conclusions of this kind," Milley said. "I think there is still a lot of fighting ahead. And I will repeat what was said earlier: it will be a long, difficult, bloody matter. Let's see how it will eventually turn out in terms of confronting the Ukrainians against the Russians".

Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Initiative grain agreement as of 17 July 2023 for two reasons. First, Moscow believed it was unfair that Ukrainian farms have been able to sell their products abroad while Russian agricultural exports are being blocked by sanctions. Russia also wantws its agricultural bank to be allowed back into the SWIFT international payment system, and it wanted to pressure the US and its allies into backing off on some sanctions. Moscow's second reason concerned the frontline situation. While Ukraine's counteroffensive was going slowly, it appeared to be gaining ground and there were signs the fighting could drag on. The additional weapons NATO members had promised Ukraine and the cluster bombs that the US is providing will help hold back Russian forces.

Russia's demands inclulded:

• removal of all obstacles for Russian banks and financial institutions serving the supply of food and fertilizers, including their immediate connection to the international SWIFT system;
• withdrawal from sanctions of deliveries of Russian grain and fertilizers to world markets;
• unblocking Russian assets related to the agricultural sector;
• resumption of deliveries of spare parts and components for agricultural machinery and the fertilizer industry to Russia;
• resolving all issues with the insurance of Russian ships and export deliveries;
• ensuring unhindered supplies of fertilizers from Russia and raw materials for their production;
• restoration of the work of the ammonia pipeline Tolyatti - Odessa.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Russia’s exit from a deal allowing Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea worsens the global food security outlook and risks adding to food inflation, especially for low-income countries. “The discontinuation of the initiative impacts the food supply to countries that rely heavily on shipments from Ukraine, in particular in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia,” the IMF said. “It worsens the food security outlook and risks adding to global food inflation, especially for low-income countries.”

Russia’s defence ministry said Moscow would consider all vessels heading to Ukrainian ports as potential carriers of military cargoes, days after the collapse of the grain deal, which Russia had repeatedly criticised in recent weeks. “Accordingly, the flag countries of such ships will be considered involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime,” the ministry said in a statement.

Turkiye's role could be changing. Ankara had been serving as an intermediary between Russia and the West despite being a NATO member. President Recep Tayyip Erdoganangered Russia with his recent decision to back Sweden's membership in NATO, and allowing Azov battalion commanders to return to Ukraine from exile in Turkiye. Moscow accused Ankara of breaking the agreement that permitted the former prisoners of war, who were captured after the fall of Mariupol, to live in Turkey for the remainder of the conflict.

Ukraine's inability to export grain will have a negative impact in Africa, where many countries are already suffering from food instability. This will damage Russia's reputation in the region, which it considers strategically important. That could make Moscow reconsider its decision. Putin blamed Western countries he said “completely distorted” the expired Black Sea grain deal, but said 19 July 2023 Russia would “immediately” return to the deal if all its conditions for doing so were met.

Failure to comply with Russian conditions under the grain deal is arrogance and impudence, said President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with members of the government 19 July 2023. "Just outright arrogance and impudence. Promises and empty chatter. And they only compromised themselves with this. The authority of the UN secretariat leadership , which actually acted as a guarantor of the grain deal, was undermined," he said. "We extended this deal again and again and showed simply miracles of endurance and patience, tolerance," the Russian leader stressed. According to him, Moscow expected that foreign colleagues would eventually begin to fulfill all obligations and agreements in full, but in fact no one was going to do this. Western countries, on the contrary, did everything to derail the initiative, despite the sincere efforts of the UN staff, the president said.

Despite the burden of sanctions, Russia managed to export over 15 million tons of grain, as well as a large amount of mineral fertilizers by November 2022. More than 90% of deliveries went to countries in Africa and Southeast Asia, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov told journalists at the time. The Russian Federation supplied 4.9 million tons of wheat to foreign markets in May; five million tons in April; and 5.2 million tons in March. Among buyers of Russian grain are Egypt, Yemen, Brazil, Bangladesh, Oman, Mexico, Mozambique, Tunisia, Senegal, Tanzania and Rwanda, to name but a few. In 2022, Russia updated the record for gross grain harvest: a total of 157.676 million tons was harvested, 29.9% more than in 2021. In 2023, the grain harvest in the Russian Federation is expected to be 123 million tons, including 78 million tons of wheat.

A group of prominent military experts visited the front lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region and in the Donbass . One of them, a researcher at the British Institute for International Strategic Studies Franz-Stefan Gadyi, published his findings on the social network "Twitter" on 18 July 2023.

"By and large this is an infantryman’s fight (squad, platoon & company level) supported by artillery along most of the frontline. This has several implications: 1st: Progress is measured by yards/meters and not km/miles given reduced mobility. Mechanized formations are rarely deployed due to lack of enablers for maneuver. This includes insufficient quantities of de-mining equipment, air defenses, ATGMs etc. Ukrainian forces have still not mastered combined arms operations at scale. Operations are more sequential than synchronized. This creates various problems for the offense & IMO is the main cause for slow progress.

"Ukrainian forces by default have switched to a strategy of attrition relying on sequential fires rather than maneuver. This is the reason why cluster munitions are critical to extend current fire rates into the fall: weakening Russian defenses to a degree that enables maneuver. Minefields are a problem as most observers know. They confine maneuver space & slow advances. But much more impactful than the minefields per se on Ukraine’s ability to break through Russian defenses is ????s inability to conduct complex combined arms operations at scale. Lack of a comprehensive combined arms approach at scale makes Ukrainian forces more vulnerable to Russian ATGMs, artillery etc. while advancing. So it's not just about equipment. There’s simply no systematic pulling apart of the Russian defensive system...

"Ukraine’s approach in this counteroffensive has been first and foremost direct assaults on Russian positions supported by a rudimentary deep battle approach. And no, these direct assaults are not mere probing attacks. ... The character of this offensive will only likely change if there is a more systematic approach to breaking through Russian defenses, perhaps paired with or causing a severe degradation of Russian morale, that will lead to a sudden or gradual collapse of Russian defenses."

According to Western observers, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have achieved superiority in counter-battery combat. The Russians allegedly do not have enough radars to detect firing points, and the range of artillery systems is inferior to Western ones. In turn, the researcher Franz-Stefan Gadi clarifies: if Ukraine has achieved fire superiority in cannon artillery, then Russia retains an advantage in the MLRS.

Having lost about 20 percent of the equipment, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine changed tactics. Now dominated by infantry attacks carried out by squad, platoon or company with artillery support. There are groups of 15-50 people. Among them are sappers, as well as MANPADS operators who are trying to counter the helicopters. A senior fellow at the American Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, Rob Lee, who also visited the war zone, notes that this minimizes losses. "But the advance is slower, there are fewer opportunities for a quick breakthrough," he states.

The interlocutors of the FT correspondent also said that many inexperienced fighters were not ready for complex operations, despite Western training. They also recall that the first days of the UAF offensive were chaotic and in several cases the Ukrainian military mistakenly opened fire on their own.

Igor Girkin, the prominent Russian hardliner who accused President Vladimir Putin of weakness and indecision in Ukraine was detained 21 July 2023 on charges of extremism, a signal the Kremlin has toughened its approach with hawkish critics after last month's abortive rebellion by the Wagner mercenary company. Also known as Igor Strelkov, the retired security officer led Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and also was implicated by the Netherlands in the downing of a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet that year. He had argued that a total mobilisation is needed for Russia to achieve victory and recently criticised Putin as a “nonentity".

Erik Zimerman noted that in mid-July Ukrainian company-sized assaults of Infantry on BMPS without tank support reached the Russian lines and were destroyed by Russian artillery, drones, and anti-tank weapons [including ATGMs] hitting them from above and the flanks. The attacks lacked appropriate tactics, driving in linear column into an envelopment within entrenched positions. BMPS carry squads (6-10 troops) to the combat line. Troops disembarked from some of the vehicles, but did not disembark fast enough; not surprising given the Russian small arms fire from trenches and artillery from above.

Combined arms tactics would entail a fast assault by a determined company of infantry to seize and hold at leastpaart of the trench system. This would make the armored vehicles safer[ATGM gunners would keep their heads down in the face of small arms fire], while the heavier weapons from the BMPs would support the infantry (firing into the Russian trenchworks). But this requires considerable training to overcome natural reluctance to attmpt such valor, and only some of the best and most experience soldiers in would be expected to effectively attempt such actions. In the this case, the company, and its armored ride were completely destroyed in terms of combat effectiveness.

Russian forces "much earlier in the war learned that these narrow thrusts were essentially suicidal. This is why for example, the ongoing Russian offensive around the Svatove front is about 13 kilometers wide. Narrow thrusts are essentially self ambushing. If extremely successful and fast, causing chaos in the rear echelons, it can of course succeed and cause a wider collapse in the front but it is a very high risk gamble that thus far has not paid off..."

Representatives of the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) compiled a report criticizing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) for the poor use of combat skills acquired during training in the West, the authors of the document saw the main problem in the actions of the officers. The Bild newspaper reported 24 July 2023 on the report, which is marked "for official use only". According to the tabloid, the document has a separate chapter that describes the conclusions from observations of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "Some military units are divided into too small components, and it turns out that each of them carries out some actions, but there is no single combat," the publication cites an excerpt from this report.

Because of this, the likelihood of hitting one's own is growing, the newspaper writes. In addition, there are no elements of combat that allow you to establish fire superiority at a decisive moment. Bild notes that Western training, technical superiority, or superiority in manpower will not help with this kind of combat.

The authors of the Bundeswehr report explain the current situation primarily not by individual mistakes, but by "Ukrainian military doctrine." The more experience a soldier has received in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the higher his rank, the less he learns the principles of the training he received in the West, the newspaper notes. The article describes the state of affairs using the example of young Ukrainian soldiers: they learn the material, but when they find themselves in Ukraine, they follow the orders of officers who are not able to act according to the Western model. According to Bild, based on the Bundeswehr report, "Ukrainian officers cancel out the successes" that soldiers achieve during their training in the West.

The Ukrainian armed forces were losing a large number of troops, including those who have completed six months of training in NATO countries, due to the inexperience of commanders and the growing role of reservists. Colonel of the Armed Forces of Austria Markus Reisner stated this on 25 July 2023 in an interview with N-TV. “Many of the soldiers who underwent six months of training in NATO are no longer there. I recently spoke with a Ukrainian comrade: in a neighboring unit, a 47-year-old reservist became their commander. Out of inexperience, he sent a platoon of his soldiers to the minefields. Only half returned,” gave the military example. Reisner also stated the failure of the first phase of the UAF counteroffensive. Among other factors complicating the offensive actions of the Ukrainian army and leading to losses in its ranks, the colonel noted the defense in depth of the RF Armed Forces, the presence of good means of electronic warfare and reconnaissance, as well as the insufficient equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, especially aviation and ground-to-ground missiles.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive was developing extremely slowly. In most directions, it was not even possible to reach the first line of defense. “America would never attempt to defeat a prepared defense without air superiority, but they [Ukrainians] don’t have air superiority,” John Nagl, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and professor at the U.S. Army War College, observed. “It’s impossible to overstate how important air superiority is for fighting a ground fight at a reasonable cost in casualties.”

British newspaper Financial Times on 27 July 2023 reported that according to earlier estimates of American and Ukrainian officials in the media, since the beginning of the offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already lost 20% of the equipment provided to them by NATO countries. High initial losses have been reduced by the fact that the Ukrainian military is now advancing in small groups on foot, counting on the cover of its artillery, which is also trying to clear minefields in front of them. As the commander of the 78th Air Assault Regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the call sign Sultan told the newspaper, even special forces units designed to carry out reconnaissance and sabotage behind enemy lines are now used "like ordinary infantry".

This labor-intensive strategy raised questions in Western capitals about whether Ukraine can stick with it long enough or achieve a military breakthrough that would force Moscow to the negotiating table. There were also concerns about how quickly Ukraine is running out of dwindling stocks of artillery shells, as well as giving Russia more time to dig in and prepare fresh forces," writes FT correspondent Christopher Miller, who is on the front lines in the Artyomovsk region. "However, in the short term, this tactic has reduced Ukrainian losses."

The priority is the Zaporozhye sector of the front. There, for seven weeks, Ukraine had been pressing on three points. In the area of the Kakhovskoye reservoir, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were trampling under Pyatikhatki. Heavy defensive battles continue in the Orekhovsky direction, but there was no serious advance of the Ukrainian infantry. The same is true on the so-called Vremievsky ledge on the border with the DPR.

Near Donetsk, the Russian army was gradually encircling Avdiivka and is fighting in the street in Maryinka. According to the Ministry of Defense, in recent days, troops had been operating near the settlements of Veseleye, Bogdanovka, Predtechino, Belaya Gora and Dyleevka. Near Artemovsk / Bahmut, the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied some heights near Kleshcheevka, which allowed them to enter the village from the southwest. There were fights, no one controlled the entire settlement.

Russians were moving forward on a broad front from Kremennaya to the border with the Belgorod Region. In the Krasnolimansky direction, they made serious progress by imposing a battle on the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the settlement of Torskoye. Near Kupyansk, advanced units reached the outskirts of the city and took control of the Molchanovo railway station, which is important for logistics. In the Kremennaya-Svatovo sector, Russian troops crossed the Zherebets River and occupied the heights on the western bank, expanding and deepening a bridgehead of about 35 square kilometers. Moscow had concentrated at least 100,000 soldiers in the Kupyansk and Krasnolimansk directions.

On 26 July 2023 Ukrainian troops began the main stage of the counteroffensive. This statement was made by The New York Times , citing two US Department of Defense officials. The main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now concentrated in the southwestern direction, including those units that were previously held in reserve. “Ukrainian officials have told US officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast,” the NYT reported, citing two Pentagon officials. Many of the newly deployed soldiers were trained and equipped by Ukraine’s Western backers, according to the report.

The newspaper also cited interviews on Wednesday with Ukrainian forces who claimed they were “steadily pushing Russian troops back.” However, their progress has been “incremental, with no major breakthroughs. They have been slowed by minefields, and some said the biggest obstacles were withering artillery fire and airstrikes.”

The report dovetailed with a statement earlier on Wednesday by the Russian Defense Ministry, which said the Ukrainian army had launched a “massive” assault with three battalions backed by tanks. Russian forces repelled the attack, preventing Kiev’s units from breaching their defensive lines near the village of Orekhov in the Zaporozhye Region. The ministry added that Ukraine had lost 22 tanks, ten infantry fighting vehicles and more than 100 troops in the battle. Ukrainian officials told Washington that the operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, the NYT said, adding, “Officials at the White House and Pentagon said that they were watching the increased activity with keen interest.” As one senior official told the newspaper, “This is the big test.”

Moscow-based military expert and retired Russian Army colonel Anatoly Matviychuk remained “skeptical," first of all due to the UAF’s “very low system of fire support for troops.” “Secondly is the complete absence of the UAF’s presence in the air, with the Russian Air Force controlling the enemy throughout the entire depth of its operational area. I think that this ‘offensive’ may have some temporary tactical successes … but I do not foresee any changes at the frontline. And everything will most likely end the way Ukraine’s ‘first’ advance wrapped up,” he pointed out. “Most importantly, our aviation has practically shifted to systematic combat actions in the entire Russian special military operation zone … That is, we are currently conducting a so-called active defense to weaken the enemy by launching attacks,” the expert concluded.

Georgetown University professor Sean McFate, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, told the newspaper USA Today 27 July 2023 that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky had begun to lose credibility – Kiev’s “main asset” – with Western benefactors. He claimed that Zelensky has locked himself into a position in which he “can’t win, but can’t afford to lose, either.”

“NATO is experiencing donor fatigue and disappointment with Zelensky’s bluster,” said McFate, a US Army veteran who also has consulted for the Pentagon and the CIA. He added that continuing to send billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry to Ukraine on expectations that Zelensky’s regime can win the conflict is “the definition of strategic insanity.”

Air Force veteran Steven Myers, an entrepreneur who has advised the US State Department on foreign policy, told USA Today that a stalemate was the most likely outcome because, contrary to the Western political and media narrative, Russian President Vladimir Putin never intended a war of conquest. While NATO members have argued that Ukraine must be supported because Putin planned to conquer Kiev and move westward, Myers suggested that Russia has proven otherwise. Russian military tactics during the conflict have been “completely inconsistent with conquest,” Myers said. Rather, he added, Putin’s only real agenda was to keep Ukraine out of NATO. “Strategically, this war was lost by both sides before it started. It will end in stalemate, which I think was Putin’s intent from the get-go.”

All attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) to re-launch their counteroffensive have been halted and the enemy has been pushed back, suffering heavy losses, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on 27 July 2023 speaking at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg.

The scenario of freezing the conflict in Ukraine became more likely as the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine approached failure, wrote the American edition of The Hill 28 July 2023. “Military experts <…> fear that the operation of the Ukrainian army will end by the end of this year without a major victory. This will bring the war closer to freezing in its current positions,” the article said. According to foreign policy researcher Michael O'Hanlon,expressed doubt about Ukraine’s argument that it is carefully probing Russian lines for weaknesses and will achieve breakthroughs once holes and soft spots have been found. O’Hanlon projected that the Armed Forces of Ukraine advances will lead to the creation of new fortifications on more favorable lines for Moscow. A stalemate in hostilities is not beneficial to Ukraine, because it only strengthens Russia's position in new territories, analysts concluded.

A bipartisan majority of seven-in-ten voters favor the US continuing to provide significant military aid to Ukraine to help in their ongoing war with Russia, according to an in-depth study by the Program for Public Consultation together with the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Continuing to provide military aid to Ukraine, including military equipment, ammunition, training and intelligence, was favored by 69%, including 55% of Republicans, 87% of Democrats and 58% of independents. The sample was large enough to enable analysis of attitudes in very Republican and very Democratic districts based on Cook PVI ratings. In both very red and very blue congressional districts, equally large majorities (71%) favored continuing military aid.

President Vladimir Putin spoke on the eve of the activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction. He reported that the enemy was not successful. All attempts at a counteroffensive have been halted, Ukrainian troops have been driven back.