Operation Days of Repentance 1 - Iranian Response
Yimi Tshuva - 26 October 2024
The "Days of Repentance" operation in Iran may not change the strategic balance between Israel and Iran, but it set an important precedent for a future attack on the nuclear facilities. Israel significantly damaged the air defense system and the ballistic missile production capacity and prepared the ground for further attacks. The immediate result of the Israeli attack on Iran is that Iran is now much more exposed to Israeli air attacks without any real ability to defend against them after Israel significantly attacked its air defense system.
In order to prevent an escalation in the conflict, the political echelon decided to give up on oil facilities and nuclear facilities - and focus on military goals only. The strength of the choice is in presenting the quality of the intelligence the IDF has on the Iranians, and conveying a strong message that indicates the IDF's capabilities in future strikes. The attack sharpened Israeli air superiority against the technology in Tehran's service.
Israel relayed a warning to Iran through several third parties ahead of its missile strike against the Islamic Republic on Saturday, Axios has reported, citing three anonymous sources. According to the media outlet, West Jerusalem indicated what type of targets it would attack, while cautioning Tehran against retaliating. Israel relayed a warning to Iran through several third parties ahead of its missile strike against the Islamic Republic, Axios reported, citing three anonymous sources. According to the media outlet, West Jerusalem indicated what type of targets it would attack, while cautioning Tehran against retaliating.
The coordinated explanatory effort evident in the media in the Islamic Republic dwarfed Israel's night attack on Iran • Only a few minutes after the first reports of the explosions, the Iranian media began an extensive media campaign: the Tasnim agency denied the reported injuries, and documents were circulated that supposedly show life in Tehran quickly returning to normal. The official Iranian media has been working since the beginning of the night attack in a concerted effort to downplay the importance of the events. The Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, led the line of denial regarding reports of damage to Revolutionary Guards bases in the Tehran area, denying them emphatically.
Within minutes of the start of the attack, the official and state media in Iran began a coordinated media campaign. They have released documents they claim show life in Tehran quickly returning to normal, in what appears to be an attempt to reassure the local population. The Iranian media insisted that the explosions heard throughout the city resulted solely from the activity of the air defense systems, and confidently claimed that all the missiles launched in the attack were successfully intercepted.
Referring to the "Zionist sources" claims about attacking military targets, the broadcaster emphasized that these have not yet been confirmed by official military officials. In an effort to emphasize the routine, the managers of the main airports in Tehran, "Khomeini" and "Mehr-Abad", were quoted, who claimed that the activity in them continues as usual. The head of information in the Iranian government even went above and beyond when he called on citizens to "refrain from participating in the media and rumor game of the Zionist regime", in what appears to be an attempt to prevent the spread of uncontrolled information on social networks.
In Tehran and elsewhere across the country, life mostly continued as normal, the first day of the working week in Iran. Traffic was normal in different areas of the capital and other affected cities. Some people, however, were caught up in the immediate effect of the sense of danger and uncertainty due to an attack on the country, which has not seen all-out war on its soil since neighboring Iraq invaded it in the 1980s.
Western intelligence sources estimate that the conservative wing in Iran, led by the "Revolutionary Guards", as well as Iran's affiliates in the Middle East will exert heavy pressure on Iran's supreme leader to respond to the Israeli attack in order to maintain its dignity and deterrent power. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered to hide the damage caused by the Israeli attack and to present "business as usual" to the outside in order to hide the Iranian embarrassment and humiliation after Iran had pledged before the Israeli attack to respond immediately with force to any Israeli attack.
Israel did not reveal the results of the attack, avoiding embarrassing Iran and mocking it, thus building the ladder by which Iran can climb down and not attack Israel. Sources familiar with the matter said that there was very significant damage to the S-300 battery radars placed around Tehran, and considerable damage to Iran's ballistic missile production system. An Israeli source said that sites Some of the Iranian industrial plants were damaged, but the examination of the damage is still ongoing.
But satellite images released after the Israeli attack on Iran showed direct hits on Iran's secret base in Parchin, about 30 kilometers east of Tehran. In recent years, the secret Iranian base has been called a "security facility", where research and development of missiles and suicide drones are carried out, among other things. In the past, the base was used to carry out experiments in the nuclear field.
It was reported in the "Washington Post" by a source familiar with the attack plan that it was designed so that the number of casualties would be as low as possible, and that its effect would be of a magnitude that would allow Iran to deny extensive damage, thus containing the attack. According to the source, the attack was on a larger scale than the one Israel carried out in Iran in April. A "Fox News" reporter reported that the Israeli attacks in Iran were intended to send a message of deterrence, and to keep the current conflict contained. The reporter also reported that he was told that Israel was prepared in case Iran responded with another missile attack.
The reporter of the French newspaper "Le Figaro" reported that Israel may have warned Iran before the attack. He quoted a source close to Iran who said that he received a message from an Iranian source, who predicted Israel's attack. The source said that in his view, Israel carried out the minimal attack it could carry out.
The Iranian General Staff announced in a statement that Israeli fighters used Iraqi airspace controlled by the US military while bombing Iranian territory. The statement said: "The Zionist enemy's fighters used part of the Iraqi airspace that is under the control of the terrorist American army and launched long-range missiles against targets in the provinces of Tehran, Islam and Khuzestan." He added: "The enemy used air-to-ground missiles carrying very light warheads that do not exceed a fifth of the warheads used in Iranian ballistic missiles." He continued: "As a result of this aggression, some air defense systems were damaged and suffered limited losses. Some of them were repaired and work is underway to repair others. Some missiles were intercepted and fighters were prevented from entering the country's airspace."
According to an Iranian report, the air defense systems intercepted a large part of the missiles, and some of them hit military installations. The report also claimed that the attack "did not reach the level of the Israeli threats", and did not affect Iranian capabilities. Tehran announced the death of two soldiers in the Iranian army, who belonged to the air defense system. The soldiers are Muhammad Mehdi Shahrahi and Hamza Jahandid, who had a rank equivalent to a sergeant. Mohammad Marandi, a conservative political analyst close to the government in Tehran, said that "we expect much more severe attacks and we are equipped to win the war against Israel.
The Iranian army published a statement in which it referred to the Israeli attack on its territory - and called for a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon: "Iran reserves the legal and legitimate right to respond in time". It was claimed "In some places the damage has been repaired". Regarding the question of Iran's response to the Israeli attack, a report was received on Sky News in Arabic which claims: "Iran conveyed a message through a foreign intermediary that it will not respond to the attack".
The Air Defense Base issued a statement on Saturday, saying that the criminal, illegitimate and fake regime of Israel in a move to escalate tensions launched attacks on some military sites in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam in the early hours of today. Iran’s air defenses intercepted and successfully confronted the acts of aggression, it said, adding that some limited damage was caused in some areas, the dimensions of which are being investigated. The statement urged people to maintain unity and calm and ignore rumors spread by the enemy media.
An "informed source" dismissed the Israeli regime’s claim that it has struck 20 spots across Iran. The informed source told Tasnim that the Israeli army’s claim that it has targeted 20 locations across Iran is untrue, noting that the number of locations targeted by the enemy is significantly lower than that. The source added that the action by the Zionists has been taken from outside the Iranian border and has caused limited damages. The source also confirmed a previous report from Tasnim that none of the military centers of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps in Tehran has been targeted. “The reports alleging that 100 Israeli military planes have had a role in the strike are also complete lies, as Israel is seeking to overplay its weak attack,” the source added.
The spokeswoman for the Iranian government claimed this morning that "the Israeli attack caused limited damage," and added: "We are proud of the capabilities of the air defense systems. The situation in the country remains normal." A resident of Tehran told news here that in the Iranian capital there is indeed a routine today. According to him, the businesses are open and the education frameworks are working. He added that "many expected a very significant attack by Israel" and that "since the attacks were targeted, many did not hear them during the night." A spokesman for the Tehran oil refining company said this morning that the company's facilities were not among the targets of Israel's airstrikes tonight. This was reported in "Iran International." "There was no attack on the refinery facilities, and production in the refinery units continues as usual," he told the media.
The Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and the Islamic Jihad condemned the Israeli attack on Iran , and considered it a blatant violation of Iran's sovereignty and an escalation targeting the security of the region. Hamas said that the Israeli attack on military sites in Iran was based on military and political cover from the US administration and some Western capitals. Hamas affirmed its solidarity with Iran in the face of what it described as Israeli arrogance, and praised Tehran's support for the Palestinian cause.
For its part, the Islamic Jihad Movement said that the Israeli attack on Iran is a serious threat to the security of Arab and Islamic countries, and comes in the context of international silence and Western complicity in the Israeli aggression in Gaza and Lebanon. PIJ stressed that the attack is trying to break the resistance in the region, noting that it will fail. For its part, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine affirmed its support for Iran's right to self-defense in the face of Israeli aggression. PFLP pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to exaggerate the results of the aggression against Iran to please his audience, stressing that the resistance will not be defeated.
According to Khabaronline news agency, Iran's reform front, in a statement condemning Israel's attack on Iran , did not consider it to the extent that it had been advertised for several weeks, and did not consider it to be the response to the spectacular operation of the promise of Sadegh2, and emphasized that the initiative is now in the hands of Iran's statesmen. According to ISNA, the text of the statement of Iran's reform front is as follows:
"The Saturday night attack by the unbridled Israeli regime on a number of Iranian military centers, although it caused damages and led to the martyrdom of several soldiers of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, was never to the extent that was advertised for several weeks, and the response to the spectacular operation was not as promised by Sadegh2. Therefore, at the level of public opinion, it is considered a failure for the Zionist occupation regime. This privileged position for Iran has been nothing but the result of Iran's military deterrence and the effective and efficient use of diplomatic tools by the current government."
The General Staff of the Armed Forces wrote in a statement in response to the Israeli attack: "The Islamic Republic of Iran, while reserving its right to respond legally and legitimately at the appropriate time, emphasized the establishment of a lasting ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon to prevent the killing of the helpless and oppressed people. "The Zionist enemy planes, in an open aggression and contrary to international laws, this morning, Saturday, November 5, using the space at the disposal of the American terrorist army in Iraq, one hundred kilometers from the borders of Iran, and from a distance, a number of long-range airborne missiles that have many warheads. About one-fifth of Iranian ballistic missile warheads were fired towards some border radars in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and around Tehran province.
"In this illegitimate and illegal action, with the readiness of the country's air defense, a significant number of missiles have been tracked and intercepted, and enemy planes have been prevented from entering the country's airspace. The Islamic Republic of Iran, while reserving its legal and legitimate right to respond at the appropriate time, emphasizes the establishment of a lasting ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon to prevent the killing of the helpless and oppressed people. The terrorist and criminal government of America, which plays a central role in supporting the criminal actions of the Zionist regime in disrupting the security of the region, is warned to prevent the spread of conflict and insecurity in the region and the killing of innocent people, especially in Gaza and Lebanon."
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in a meeting with thousands of respected families of security martyrs 27 October 2024, called these martyrs among the top martyrs of the path of justice. "Security is the foundation of all means and ways of progress of the country and the nation, and the value of the life preservers of security and the proud martyrs of this arena in " Police force, Basij, IRGC, army and intelligence collections", one should understand the importance and irreplaceable value of security." Ayatollah Khamenei called national power the only way to be safe in Iran and added: "To secure the country and society and progress Iran, we must be strong in all economic, scientific, defense, political, managerial and other aspects and become stronger every day."
Khamenei warned against either exaggerating or minimizing the impact of Israeli's October 26 retaliatory strikes against Iran. Khamenei described the strikes as a "miscalculation" by Israel. However, while he called on government officials to "understand the capability" Iran had, he stopped short of calling for an Iranian response that would extend the series of tit-for-tat strikes between the two archfoes. "Of course, they are exaggerating," he said in reference to Israel, which said it successfully carried out "targeted and precise" strikes on military sites. "Exaggerating them is wrong, but minimizing them is also wrong," Khamenei said, adding that Iran cannot just say that "it was nothing, it didn't matter."
"It is up to the authorities to determine how to convey the power and will of the Iranian people to the Israeli regime," he said, "and to take actions that serve the interests of this nation and country."
The IRGC announced that it is a criminal offense to send “images or news” related to the attack to outlets that it deems "Israel-affiliated" or "hostile”. Usually, Iran refers to Western media as hostile.
The advisor and assistant of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution said in a gathering of selected members of the National Elite Foundation: The authoritative defense of the country's airspace has once again shown the scientific ability and power of Iranian youth to the world. In this meeting, which lasted for more than two hours, Mohammad Mokhbar, advisor and assistant to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, emphasized the special role of the elites in speeding up the development of the country and creating a promising vision for the future of Iran, and added: What keeps the elites in the country It is possible for them to feel that they are effective in solving problems and challenges and that it is possible to implement their ideas for the development of the country.
Referring to the cowardly and criminal attack of the Zionist regime on our country and the success of the brave men of Iran's defense in repelling these attacks, the advisor and assistant of the supreme leader of the revolution said: "The elites have shown their scientific power to the world by protecting Iran's airspace." This success is the result of the presence of elite, scientific and brave youth in Iran's missile program and defense force.
Enumerating the signs of decline and decline of the occupied Jerusalem regime, he stated: The Zionists have violated all the red lines and international protocols. Zionists kill women and children, destroy people's houses, attack schools and hospitals and use weapons of mass destruction, all these atrocities stem from the weakness of this regime.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that his country had received "signals" before Israel's attack on Iranian military sites, a claim denied by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Iranian minister said, according to what was reported by the IRNA news agency: "We received signals, on Friday afternoon, that it is possible" that Israel will launch an attack on Iran, noting that "messages were exchanged with several parties before the attack, and we were in continuous coordination with our armed forces." Araghchi sent a letter to the UN Secretary-General and the President of the UN Security Council, "calling for an urgent meeting of the Security Council to take a decisive stance in condemning this aggression," in reference to the Israeli strikes, according to a statement issued by his ministry, and reported by France Presse.
Axios also reported , citing three informed sources, that Israel sent a message to Iran on Friday, before the retaliatory attack, warning the Iranians against responding. The Israeli message was conveyed to the Iranians through several third parties. One source said the Israelis had made clear to the Iranians in advance what they would generally target, and what they would not target. Two other sources said that Israel warned the Iranians against responding to the recent attack, and stressed that if Iran retaliated, Israel would carry out another, larger attack, especially if Israeli civilians were killed.
Netanyahu's office denied reports that Israel had warned Iran through third parties, and that it had given a general indication of what it would and would not target, according to The Times of Israel. The office said a report published on the Israeli Walla news site was "false and absurd." It added: "Israel did not notify Iran before the attack, neither about the timing, nor about the targets, nor about the scope of the attack."
The Zionist regime’s recent strike on Iran resulted in minor damages, all of which have been repaired, Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh said. Addressing an event at the National Defense University of Iran here, General Nasirzadeh said Iran repaired damage immediately by employing its domestic know-how and scientific power. He said foreign countries would have never helped Iran fix the damage if the Islamic Republic had not developed domestic capabilities.
Nasirzadeh, Minister of Defense and Support of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, who was present at the opening ceremony of the new academic year of non-Iranian students of the Higher National Defense University, among non-Iranian students and a number of foreign military dependents living in Tehran, referring to the verse He said: The Qur'an has advised us to prepare and become powerful by any means, that one of the powers is scientific power, and any country that has scientific power is superior to others.
He added: Sometimes this scientific power is used in the direction of evil through global arrogance, but if this scientific power is in the hands of believing and justice-seeking people, it will be used in the direction of the superiority of good and fight against oppression.
The Minister of Defense and Support of the Armed Forces, referring to the presence of the United States in the extreme points of the world, including in the South China Sea and the provocation of Taiwan, the straits and international waterways such as the Bab al-Mandab strait, as well as in the war between Russia and Ukraine, stated: these presences and interventions are in the direction of the unilateralism of the United States. in the world, therefore, justice-seeking countries, whether Muslim or non-Muslim, should focus on their commonalities and strengthen them by taking advantage of scientific power; Therefore, in these classrooms, study, research and brainstorm on commonalities and factors of convergence, which are many.
In another part of his speech, Amir Nasirzadeh pointed out that the Zionist regime has violated all the international laws that are apparently established for human rights and justice, and stated: In the recent aggression of the Zionist regime against the Islamic Republic of Iran, we suffered minor damage. which we repaired and replaced immediately by using our own scientific knowledge and power, while if this power due to science was in the hands of others, we would never have been allowed to do this.
Iranian official and unofficial media, specifically agencies close to the Revolutionary Guards , described the Israeli attack on the country as a failure and confirmed its frustration, which placed expectations regarding the next stage in the context of a kind of calm or de-escalation and stopping the cycle of response and counter-response between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Iran confirms that its air defense systems confronted all targeting attempts in the provinces of Tehran, the north of the country, Khuzestan in the southwest, and Ilam in the west of the country. Former Revolutionary Guards commander Hussein Kanaani Moqaddam believes that what the Israeli entity did at dawn today is much less than what Iran did in Operation “True Promise 2,” but this does not mean that Iran will not respond, stressing that it will respond to the Israeli attack with many times the attack it received. He told Al Jazeera Net that the United States is afraid, and this is what prompted it to say that it did not help Israel in this operation, but Iran was assured that Washington had a role, and therefore all of the United States’ bases in the region are now within the Iranian target bank.
Kanaani Moghaddam added that if it becomes clear that any of the regional countries' airspace is being used for this operation, the Islamic Republic will deal with those countries. The former leader of the Revolutionary Guards considered that what Israel did was not surprising, as it announced more than once that it would target nuclear sites and oil and gas sites, recalling the statement of their army spokesman who said that they would attack Iran with all their forces, and therefore if this is all their forces, this means that the entity is in a state of weakness and is on the verge of disappearing. He concluded that "the targeted sites are military headquarters that cannot be classified as important or sensitive, and the entity tried to target our defense systems, and focused its operation on targeting radar systems, and failed to do so."
So far, there is no comprehensive Iranian narrative about the nature of the Israeli attack, and information about the details is scarce with unofficial news circulating. In this context, political science professor Mustafa Najafi denied that any fighter jets entered Iranian airspace, adding that the attack was carried out by firing from outside Iranian territory. "It seems that Iran was aware of the time of the attack and was not surprised. The attack was not as widespread and dangerous as the Israeli authorities had previously threatened, but Iran does not ignore it easily and reserves the right to respond, considering that it is the first official attack by Israel on Iranian territory and a violation of the country's territorial integrity," he added in his interview with Al Jazeera Net.
Najafi did not see what could be interpreted as a lack of escalation between Iran and Israel at this stage, as he said that the attack could not mean the end of the direct conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv, but rather means "the beginning of a more direct conflict with more serious consequences." He concluded by saying that the direct conflict between the two parties has entered a new phase as of today, and it is unlikely to stop at this point.
For his part, Mansour Barati, a professor of politics specializing in Israeli affairs, noted that Iran was prepared for the attack, despite Israel’s attempt in the previous days to continue the psychological war and maintain the element of surprise, but conflicting news from the other side increased Iran’s readiness for different scenarios. In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, he described the scene as complex, as the Iranian media portrays the operations as small, while the army announced the martyrdom of two of its members. Barati added that the weakness of the Israeli operation creates several possibilities for us regarding the next stage. The response may not have ended, and he explained that by the possibility that the Israeli response will be at different levels, and Israel may be preparing for another level of response, such as the security level, and this is what the coming days will reveal.
He ruled out that Iran and Israel would go towards a comprehensive war at this stage, as Iran does not want war and Israel is preoccupied with Lebanon, but this does not necessarily mean that the cycle of response and counter-response between Iran and Israel will stop.
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