Ukraine - F-16 Requirements
Among the planes that could potentially help Ukraine, the F-16 and Gripen were the most discussed. The F-16 requires far more runway than the Gripen, which can operate from roads, rendering the F-16 vulnerable to an attack from a neighboring country. Getting the Gripen from Swedish and Czech stocks to Ukraine would be ideal - Czechia can use it as an incentive to get the US to prioritize them for F-35s, and Sweden will get to replace the early Gripen with the Gripen-E and probably give a good boost to the Tempest program as it becomes more important to replace even the E variant sooner rather than later. But the Czechs and Hungarians only have 14 Gripens each which includes trainers so they only have 24 single seat combat variants in total so Sweden would need to shoulder the majority of Gripen transfers.
There are around 20 times as many F-16s in the world than Gripen, and used F-16s that can be supplied in 3-6 months are a much better short-term answer for Ukraine. The US has about 700 F16s in storage at Monthan AFB in Arizona. There are not a lot of excess Gripens that can go to Ukraine it would take many years before they finally started getting squadrons put together. Ukraine could receive significant numbers of f-16s long before they could receive a similar number of Gripens. And from a logistical standpoint, that means that much greater availability of spare parts. Not to mention training, add-ons, enhancements and so forth.
In June 2021 Lockheed Martin, the world's largest defense contractor, offered Ukraine a new F-16 Block 70/72 multirole combat aircraft as it looked to modernize its air force. Ukraine wanted to buy new or used fighter jets to replace the fleet of aging Soviet-made aircraft. Ukrainian Air Force had a fleet of Soviet-designed Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker interceptors and MiG-29 Fulcrum aircraft.
According to Lockheed Martin, the company can provide Ukraine with new fighters or modernize secondhand combat aircraft. As noted by the company, the F-16 is the world's most successful, combat-proven 4th generation fighter. To date, 4,588 F-16s have been produced and there are approximately 3,000 operational F-16s are in service today in 25 countries.
In concert with the U.S. Air Force and multiple F-16 Foreign Military Sales customers, Lockheed Martin has certified more than 3,300 carriage and release configurations for greater that 180 weapon and store types. The company's experience as a weapon integrator has enabled the F-16 to be one of the most versatile multirole fighters ever.
The five nations have chosen the newest F-16 Block 70/72 version for these reasons and more. Block 70/72 F-16 production began in Greenville, South Carolina, on Nov. 11, 2019. The Greenville production start coincides with the significant, growing demand for new production F-16s around the globe.
New-production F-16s include advanced capabilities, such as the APG-83 AESA Rradar, modernized cockpit with new safety features, advanced weapons, conformal fuel tanks, an improved performance engine, and an industry-leading extended structural service life of 12,000 hours. But most importantly, new F-16s also include the proven, life-saving Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System (Auto GCAS), which ensures pilots come home safe. The company also offers a package of modernization of secondhand fighters, in order to bring their combat capabilities to Block 70/72 configuration.
The F-16 considered the most suitable Western fighter for Ukraine due to the sheer numbers in which it is available as well as its lower operational costs and maintenance needs than alternatives. Although Britain and France do not operate the F-16, and Norway, the Netherlands and some other European operators are phasing out the F-16 to replace them with the F-35. F-16 user countries include Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, South Korea, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and the USA, so there is a diverse supply of spare arts and maintenance expertise.
The Ukrainian obsession with the F-16 is due in no small measure to the fact that it is the only Western fighter that can be made available in large numbers in a relatively short timeframe. Other fighters currently in production could not be delivered in large numbers until the 2030 timeframe. While other models [eg, the Swedish Gripen] may be better suited to Ukraine's requirements, the best in the enemy of the good enough.
The "Boneyard" at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Tucson, Arizona, is home to almost half of the F-16s ever built - around 2.000 out of 4.500. Most [but not all] of the F-16s in storage use mechanically scanned array radars, which are susceptible to jamming and which the Soviet tactical combat fleet began to move away from as early as 1981. They also lack high off boresight targeting capabilities provided by the new AIM-9X air to air missile and helmet mounted sights. Significant investments of time and money could be needed to modernize these old airframes to the F-16V standard with up to date avionics and weaponry, but even without these modifications the stored F-16s would provide a robust air-to-ground capability. When F-16s are delivered to Ukraine, they will probably not be the latest versions but rather older versions from the Belgian, Dutch, Danish or Norwegian military reserves.
Ukraine needs about 200 fighter jets to protect the sky, according to Yuriy Ignat, the spokesman of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is important that they must be multi-purpose, and the morally and physically outdated Soviet-type aircraft that were currently in service must be replaced.
The spokesman noted that Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe, so it needs the protection of the sky not only in wartime, but also in peacetime. "At present, the aviation group of the Russian Federation exceeds the number of combat vehicles in the Ukrainian aviation by 5-6 times. For example, at the moment we have 11 brigades: one training brigade, three transport brigades, one assault brigade, one bomber brigade and five fighter brigades. And the newest aircraft in the Armed Forces - the Su-27, entered service in 1991.
"Plus, we are inferior in technology. Therefore, the need is serious. It is necessary to create up to 5 tactical aviation brigades with one type of Western-style multi-purpose aircraft. What type it will be, is currently being determined..., - notes Ignat. "It is clear that we will not be able to get all at once, but a phased transition to a new multi-purpose aircraft is a requirement of time.
"Further - the formation of aviation brigades - up to five, each of them can include up to 3 squadrons. A country like Ukraine, one of the largest in Europe, needs exactly this number of aircraft, and this will already be a complete rearmament and replacement of old Soviet equipment ", Ignat noted.
Ignat said that as part of assistance with fighter jets, Ukraine is initially expecting the delivery of 24 Western-style aircraft. These are two battalions of combat aircraft, each of which will consist of 12 units. "Currently, the most likely candidate for replacing the old Soviet aircraft is the F-16 , because there are certain objective reasons for this. And this is not a one-man decision, there are ongoing consultations with partners." It should be understood that Ukraine will not be able to immediately count on these aircraft on the battlefield. Ignat notes that "our pilots and ground crews need at least six months of training".
Ignat explained that "This fighter has a wide range of means of attack: it can strike both ground targets (ammunition and fuel and lubricant warehouses, fortifications, enemy armored vehicles), and hit all types of aerodynamic targets (missiles, airplanes, helicopters and drones kamikaze). When Ukraine gains superiority in the air, he continued, it will be able to more successfully conduct ground operations, for example, to de-occupy our territories."
Ukrainian Defense Express reported that Ukraine will need 180 F-16 fighters to "close the sky". Five brigades will be formed. Each will have three squadrons of 12 aircraft. The cost of such a quantity of equipment of the modern version of F-16 Block 70/72 can cost $ 29.25 billion. The spokesman for the Air Force Command, Yuriy Ihnat, said that reliable protection requires "at least 5 brigades, with three squadrons in each: this would be the number of aircraft that would be able to protect the airspace together with the air defense systems of such a huge country as Ukraine".
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Kyiv needs about 160 F-16 fighters. On 30 August 2023, the representative of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat , stated that 60 F-16s would be enough for the Ukrainian military to carry out combat missions to counter air strikes. At the same time, the country's authorities have previously stated that they will need 128 F-16s to completely re-equip their air forces from Soviet fighters to Western ones.
“Today we have agreements on 50-60 aircraft,” he said in an interview with the Portuguese television company RTP. “They will not be delivered all at once. And in total we need somewhere around 160 [F-16s] to make it a powerful air fleet , which would not give Russia the opportunity to dominate the sky." He explained this by the need to ensure air defense, as well as control over the Black Sea shipping.
Ukraine is working on obtaining 120-130 F-16 aircraft. "This is the package that will make it possible to create a powerful air strike fist, and, accordingly, to carry out an attack on aviation - these are aircraft, helicopters of the enemy, but these are also strikes on ground targets. This is very important. Therefore, at the moment, a very large number is needed to carry out such a complex of measures against both Russian aviation and ground targets, and, accordingly, to neutralize certain types of missiles and launchers. In other words, this is a big targeted task," said General of the Army of Ukraine, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (2005-2010) Mykola Malomuzh.
The action plan for the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine includes the preparation of infrastructure. Malomuzh told about this on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel 29 August 2023. According to him, the partner countries help Ukraine in the preparation of not only the flight crew, but also engineering and technical personnel, as well as in the preparation of support systems and runways.
"I won't reveal secrets, but we already have ready-made canvases, they just need to be refined a little and marked accordingly. And therefore this process can be accelerated. But the fact that everything is done in parallel, and not in stages - this situation indicates that the training of pilots, the transfer of aircraft, and the preparation of the entire infrastructure, and the entire component of support and coordination, will be everywhere. Why so long. Many say, why 6 months from the start of studies? Because all elements must be involved comprehensively. These are big forces, big funds, big standardization," said Malomuzh.
Western countries can supply Ukraine with up to 200 American F-16 fighters, Igor Korotchenko, a Russian military expert and editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, expressed this opinion to TASS 27 August 2023. "The total number of vehicles that can be assembled around the world and delivered is more than 100 units, about 200. It is clear [that] not all of them will be delivered, not all of them are combat-ready, but three conditions are trained pilots, a basing system and a technical services, the airfield network and weapons - they are key in terms of analyzing the possible consequences and Russia's response to this," he said.
The expert believes that the supply of F-16s can give an advantage to the Armed Forces of Ukraine only if these conditions are met. According to him, effective training of flight personnel, even retraining, requires more than half a year. Regarding the basing system, the military expert noted that the presence of an airfield network is a critical point for such complex equipment as the F-16. "And the third factor is what weapons these F-16s will receive. This is probably the key question: what will be the launch range and what nomenclature," he said.
If the planes are equipped with American JASSM cruise missiles, this will lead to a big escalation, Korotchenko noted. "We need to take a tough stance here. I support the words of [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov, who said that we should consider the F-16, including as carriers of tactical nuclear weapons. react in some way - in my opinion, this is a bad situation for us," the expert added.
The United States in the matter of deliveries of fighters adhere to the tactics of stages, he said. "In order for deliveries to increase, but not instantly, but in stages, so that there is some kind of discussion period. They kind of teach us that this is inevitable, we must respond to this calmly, since it will not be immediately in time, and even not everyone decided which weapons will be supplied and which not. This is such a tactic on purpose so as not to provoke a sharp response from Russia to the fact of these supplies. Therefore, for us this is a serious question from the point of view, firstly, how to respond and what kind of logic of actions we needs to be done," he explained.
The single-engine aircraft, also known as the Fighting Falcon or the Viper, has been featured in countless Hollywood action movies and video games. The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Norway pledged to supply a total of 85 F-16s by 2028 as they receive far more advanced F-35 fighter jets from Washington. It’s enough for four squadrons – but is far from the 120 aircraft Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked the West for as of July 2024 to counter the 300 Russian planes.
Prior to the 2022 Russian invasion, Ukraine was seeking Western fighter to replace its aging stock of Soviet aircraft. The F-16 was on their shopping list. Following Ukraine's victory over Putin's 2022 invasion, the country will require a large number of modern fighters to dissuade Russia from future aggression.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said that Kyiv needs 48 F-16 fighters to reach the 1991 borders. "4 squadrons of F-16s (48 aircraft) is exactly what we need to liberate our country from the aggressor," the agency said on Twitter 26 May 2023. Denmark and the Netherlands will lead a European coalition to train Ukrainian pilots to use F-16 fighters.
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