Ukraine - F-16 - Aircraft - 2023
The Dutch Cabinet will look into supplying F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if the Kyiv government asks for it. During a parliamentary debate on 19 January 2023, Minister Wopke Hoekstra of Foreign Affairs said the Cabinet would look at such a request with an "open mind."
The Netherlands is ready to consider the possibility of supplying F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if a corresponding request is received from Kyiv. This was stated by Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra, whose words are quoted on 20 January 2023 by the RTL TV channel. According to the minister, the Netherlands "may consider the possibility of supplying F-16s," if the Ukrainian side asks for it. The corresponding proposal was made during the debates in the Dutch parliament by the deputy of the party "Democrats-66" Syurd Syurdsma. In this context, Hoekstra stressed that the Netherlands sends only what Ukraine requests.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on NATO countries 25 January 2023 to "unlock" the supply of long-range missiles and military aircraft to Kiev. White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby indicated such a delivery was not presently in the works.
Yuriy Sak, the adviser to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, expressed his confidence in a phone conversation with Reuters that the West would eventually send F-16s and other military aircraft to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian authorities will convince the NATO member countries to hand over Western-made fighter jets to them after obtaining an agreement on the supply of tanks to Kyiv. Yuriy Sak, adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, stated this in an interview with Reuters January 25, 2023.
"The next big hurdle will be fighter jets," he said. "If we get them, the advantage on the battlefield will be huge <...>, and it's not just about the F-16: we need fourth-generation aircraft... At first they didn't want to give us heavy artillery - then they gave us. Then they didn't want to give HIMARS systems - now they gave us. They didn't want to give us tanks, now they give us tanks. With the exception of nuclear weapons, we can get anything," Sak added.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said on 25 January 2023 that the European Union was preparing to supply Kiev with F-16 Falcon fighter jets made in the United States. The jets are just the latest advanced weapon NATO has given to Ukraine to use against Russian forces, including main battle tanks and other armored vehicles. Kuleba claimed on his Facebook* page what he said was an exchange with an unnamed "European colleague," who told him they were "working on it" when he asked about when Ukraine was getting F-16s. Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra told the country's parliament that the government would take a request for F-16s from Ukraine with "an open mind." However, Prime Minister Mark Rutte has said the issue is out of the question for the moment.
Poland is ready to transfer its F-16 fighters to Ukraine in "full coordination" with NATO countries, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said. President Joe Biden said 30 January 2023 that the U.S. won't be providing F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, appearing to reject a key request from the country as it fends off Russian aggression.
The US Department of Defense officially announced 22 February 2024 that the first F-16 fighters from Denmark will be transferred to Ukraine in the summer of 2024 , confirming previously reported information that the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 will end just in time for the summer. The Danish Ministry of Defense also released a similar statement, citing a joint statement by the “aviation coalition” led by Denmark, the Netherlands and the United States.
The US and its Western allies are working to achieve initial operating capability for the Ukrainian Air Force on F-16 fighter aircraft by the end of 2024, as confirmed by Assistant Secretary of Defense International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander. The initiative includes pilot training and infrastructure to maintain the aircraft as part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group's efforts to coordinate military aid. Wallander 24 January 2024 said "Ukrainian pilots are being trained and are working through the -- the training program. We are working as a coalition on ai- -- we are aiming to provide an initial operating capability for Ukraine with its F-16 program in 2024, which would entail trained pilots, the platforms, but in addition, trained maintainers and sustainers, infrastructure, and spare parts, ammunition."
Some Pentagon officials were skeptical of US President Joe Biden's words that Washington would not supply F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv, The Washington Post reported 31 January 2023. "President Biden's blunt refusal to comply with Ukraine's F-16 [delivery] request was met with skepticism at the Pentagon, where some officials, citing the administration's [US] manner of reversing [their position] after initially refusing to respond to Kyiv's other requests foresee the potential approval [of the F-16 transfer] or the option of US allies providing [Kyiv] aircraft with the administration's permission," the newspaper wrote.
A U.S. defense official said that while the Pentagon's F-16 plans are unlikely to change any time soon, there is a possibility of a scenario similar to the Abrams tank delivery to Kyiv. Initially, representatives of the Washington administration called it inappropriate to transfer these tanks to Ukraine due to the fact that it would be difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to service them.
Another source of The Washington Post acknowledged that there is growing frustration in the Pentagon among those who want to do more to help Ukraine, but their aspirations are blocked by supporters of a more cautious approach on this issue. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin did not want to approve sending Abrams tanks and Patriot missile defense systems to Kyiv, but the president ultimately decided to provide them to Kyiv.
A group of American lawmakers called on US President Joe Biden to begin deliveries of F-16 fighter-bombers to Ukraine or to facilitate the transfer of similar aircraft to Kyiv. This was reported on 17 February 2023 by the Politico newspaper. "The provision of these aircraft is necessary to help Ukraine protect its airspace, especially in light of the resumption of offensive operations by Russia and the expected intensification of large-scale battles," the letter says, excerpts from which were published by the publication. The message to the American president was signed by five members of the House of Representatives of the US Congress. Three of them are Democrats, two are Republicans.
Legislators believe that the F-16 or similar aircraft would allow the Ukrainian military, in particular, to hit Russian missiles and drones, provide cover for ground forces, and fight for air superiority. As Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said in an interview in the newspapers of the Funke editorial group , Kiev has no promises to supply fighter jets from any country yet.
A group of US senators sent a letter 14 March 2023 to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin demanding that they explore the possibility of sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. "This would be a significant contribution that could have a decisive impact on the battlefield," said the letter, which was signed by eight members of the US Senate from both the Republican and Democratic parties. "We are now at a turning point in the conflict. It is imperative that the US continue to carefully analyze the assistance it can provide in order for Kiev to defeat Russia on the battlefield," the politicians said. They are waiting for a response from Austin no later than March 17th.
Denmark will agree to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine only jointly with other countries, but not unilaterally. The corresponding statement was made by the country's Acting Minister of Defense Troels Lund Poulsen on TV 2 on 11 April 2023. "We will do this together with other countries. We will also have a dialogue with the Americans on this topic. But, according to my estimates, we will be able to come to a decision in a short time," Poulsen said, adding that the allies would find him before the start of the summer holidays. According to a survey conducted by the Voxmeter sociological institute commissioned by the Ritzaus Bureau agency , 40% of respondents were in favor of transferring Danish aircraft to Ukraine, provided that this is done jointly with other countries. 34% of the respondents were against, and 25% could not decide on an answer.
Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has asked the United States to provide F-15 and F-16 fighter jets for its war against Russia. Shmyhal met with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on 12 April 2023. Austin said, "We'll continue to swiftly deliver security assistance through procurements and from our own stocks as well." He also said, "I'm confident that we will meet Ukraine's defense needs through this spring and beyond." Shmyhal thanked the US for its "steady and continuous military support" and said, "We will win this war. But to achieve it faster and with fewer casualties, Ukraine still needs intensive military support." He then called on the US to supply the fighter jets, as well as long-range missiles. So far, Washington has not agreed to provide them to Ukraine.
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said Washington was simply unable to provide enough F-16 fighter jets to assist Ukraine's counteroffensive, citing the time and money needed to supply the weapons. Milley said on 18 May 2023 "just do a quick math drill here. Ten F-16s are $2 billion, so the Russians have hundreds of fourth- and fifth-generation airframes. So if they're going to try to match the Russians one for one, or even, you know, two-to-one, you're talking about a large number of aircraft. That's going to take years to train the pilots, years to do the maintenance and sustainment, years to generate that degree of financial support to do that. You're talking way more billions of dollars than has already been generated."
Kyiv expected to receive 40 to 50 F-16 fighters from Western countries. This was reported on 16 May 2023 by the publication Politico, citing Yuriy Sak, adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. According to him, Kyiv intends to form three or four squadrons of these fighters to protect the sky. Now Ukraine has "nothing to stop" Russian planes, he argued. The New York Times reported on 17 May 2023 that four NATO members - the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and Norway - were ready to supply Kyiv with at least 125 combat-ready F-16s, according to British think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"Everyone understands that the topic is ripe for discussion. Nobody says it's impossible. Compared to three months ago, when we were still trying to get tanks, today everyone is talking about a coalition of fighters - this is a very promising sign. We We understand that our air defense will not be complete without F-16 fighters," Sak told the publication. Sak added that while the UK, Italy, France and Germany do not have F-16s to offer Kyiv, they can call on the US and Turkey to do so.
US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated 20 May 2023 " all the nations that are supporting Ukraine to think about post-war and long-term because whenever this war ends, however, it ends, Ukraine is still going to have security needs. They're still going to have a long border with Russia. They're still going to need to be able to defend themselves. And so we are willing to continue to have those discussions with Ukraine going forward". Assistant to the President for National Security Jake Sullivan said that the United States, when supplying F-16 fighters, does not support Kiev's attacks on targets on Russian territory.
There is "no alternative" to sending F-16 multirole fighter jets if Kiev is to stand any hope of not losing, given that their stocks of Western-delivered stocks of Soviet-made jets like the MiG-29 are running out, and the country needs an aircraft that's in plentiful supply to launch its long-range Storm Shadow missiles, an analysis by the major German media outlet Stern concluded. According to the publication, the F-16 should also help Ukraine "gradually convert" its "entire air defense and air force to Western and NATO standards," with the former process already underway.
The German publication expects F-16s "and the corresponding long-range weapons" to provide Kiev with the ability to ramp up strikes deep inside Russia, and to target important infrastructure like the Crimean Bridge. The outlet admitted that sending the planes to Ukraine won't be without risks, with the Russians likely to "try to stem the fighter jets' offensives using long-range surface-to-air or air-to-air missiles."
The Netherlands will supply F-16s to Ukraine, but it's unclear how many would be available and when. Ukrainian President Volodymyr met Prime Minister Mark Rutte in the Netherlands after the US had approved the transfer of Dutch and Danish F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine's air force. Rutte said that the Netherlands has 42 F-16s available in all, although it is not yet clear how many will be donated. Both Denmark and the Netherlands confirmed 20 August 2023 that the transfer of planes would take place when the conditions were right. The confirmation comes as Ukrainian pilots start training to operate F-16 fighter jets, with the process likely to take at least six months.
The promises of Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is a political step to calm the Ukrainian side. Even with the fulfillment of the intentions for deliveries declared by European countries, these fighters are "not the military armada" that can change the course of the Russian special military operation (SVO), Alexander Mikhailov, head of the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, said in an interview with TASS 21 August 2023. The expert drew attention to the promises of Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine after the completion of the training of pilots of its armed forces and the fulfillment of other conditions. He recalled that talks about the transfer of the F-16 have been going on since November last year, but "not a single plane has yet flown to Ukraine." According to the expert, one should not expect a quick transition to real actions even now.
"We are talking about literally a few dozen fighters. Moreover, they were created in the 80s. The fighters are almost 30 years old. They are already decommissioned from the Danish and Dutch Armed Forces. Their aviation resource has been exhausted. And although they can still be lifted into the air and even try to lead them some air battles or use them for air strikes, however, in any case, this is not the kind of military armada that can really change the situation in the airspace of the NVO zone," the agency's interlocutor emphasized.
According to the analyst, it is worth considering all these promises as a "political step." "We need to somehow reassure Ukraine, we need to somehow reassure our European partners. These are the next promises made, now they will stretch this process for several months, they will show stories about how they train Ukrainian pilots. But the future of these aircraft is clear, they will be shot down in "Ukrainian skies," Mikhailov continued, "The Russian military knows perfectly well how to deal with such targets. To do this, there is a line of medium and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems from the Buk-M2, Buk-M3 complexes, and then the entire line of S "-300. All these complexes are guaranteed to destroy this target. Yes, these are supersonic fighters, but there is nothing supernatural in these fourth-generation fighters for our air defense systems."
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo confirmed 20 September 2023 that the country's Ministry of Defense is studying the possibility of sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. “We have asked the Ministry of Defense to check whether our aircraft have reached the end of their service life,” De Croo was quoted as saying by VRT News on Wednesday evening . “We must consider all options. If they are still useful in some way, then we should definitely study it,” the prime minister said. “Maybe Ukraine uses Belgian planes only for training. Then the requirements are different,” he added.
Belgium will not send their F-16's to Ukraine, Lieutenant Frédéric Goetynck said 04 September 2023. "These planes have already flown for so many hours that their structure was worn out. You can't send fighter jets to Ukraine, which you wouldn't use yourself," he added. “It’s not that we don’t want to, but when our planes are retired, they’re worn out. These planes will already have flown so many hours that their structure is simply worn out”, said Goetynck. “You can’t send planes to Ukraine that you wouldn’t use yourself”, he added.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo had already indicated in February 2023 that Brussels would not be supplying combat aircraft to Ukraine, and this was confirmed in May by Belgian Defence Minister Ludivine Dedonder. While De Croo stressed the necessity of these aircraft for the national army and NATO, Dedonder said that the country could not send its F-16s to Ukraine because they were “at the end of their life cycle”, even if the US gave the green light for delivery.
According to the optimistic scenario, international partners could supply the first batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine as early as in the first half of 2024. This was stated 19 October 2023 by Ukraine’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, who spoke on the air of a morning show on 1+1, Ukrinform reported. “As soon as pilot training is completed while Ukraine is preparing the relevant infrastructure to this end, the jets will arrive in Ukraine. That is, the only obstacles to the F-16 appearing in the Ukrainian sky are pilot training and infrastructure preparation. The optimistic scenario, I believe, is the first half next year,” the minister said.
The Netherlands will make at least 18 F-16 fighter aircraft available to Ukraine. Minister of Defence Kajsa Ollongren informed the Netherlands House of Representatives of this 27 December 2023. The Netherlands committed itself to doing so during a visit by Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy earlier this year. Now that the cabinet has decided to ready the F-16s, personnel and budget can be allocated to prepare for the delivery. This new decision was preceded by the undertaking to deliver F-16s to the European F-16 training centre in Romania. This centre was ceremonially opened last month by the Dutch and Romanian ministers of defence.
Ollongren explained that the F-16s will improve Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian attacks. This is of major importance because there seems to be no end in sight to Russia’s ongoing aggression. Dutch support for Ukraine will therefore continue unabated.
To prevent undesirable end use, a licence is required for the export of military technology and equipment. This requirement also applies to the F-16s in question. The Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs will therefore assess the aircraft in terms of the European Union’s criteria for arms exports. The Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation will decide whether to grant an export licence on the basis of that assessment. In addition to this licensing, a number of criteria must be met before the aircraft can actually be delivered. These criteria include trained Ukrainian personnel and suitable infrastructure in Ukraine, for example. Before being transferred to Ukraine, all aircraft will be inspected and, if necessary, modified. Furthermore, some of the aircraft require an overhaul.
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