Ukraine - F-16 Impact
Russian planes didn’t have to fly over the actual Ukrainian positions as their heavy KAB bombs can glide for dozens of kilometres to precisely destroy the most fortified buildings. The KABs have become a “miracle weapon that brings results and practically has no countermeasures,” Deep State, a Telegram channel with links to the Ukrainian military, wrote in March 2024. The KABs secured the widely-publicised takeover of Avdiivka and several more eastern Ukrainian towns.
Deliveries of aging F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine will play into Russia's hands and improve its image, The Independent speculated. Russian President Vladimir Putin "would savor the image that destroying F-16s from NATO countries would bring," the UK media outlet noted. Russia’s Armed Forces will likely "destroy the F-16s on the ground with long-range missiles," the publication further predicted. It went on to underscore that Russia’s Su-35 fighter jet would be "one of the biggest threats" to the F-16s, and noted that sophisticated air surveillance radars would be used against them. Russia’s air defense systems would make it too risky for Ukraine to try to use the jets to support its troop movements on the front line, analysts cited by the outlet acknowledged.
F-16 fighter jets will change the course of the war very seriously, as they will help push back Russian aircraft and cover Ukrainian ground troops from the air. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said this 19 November 2023 on Ukrainian television. “I would like to argue with all the critics of this jets issue. The planes will change the course of the war and they will change it very seriously," he said. He noted that "these should not be aircraft with tactical and technical specifications significantly weaker than those of Russian ones," because Ukraine needs modern fighter jets that could gain air superiority over the enemy.
"I think that such aircraft systems -- and a multi-purpose aircraft is an aircraft system because it solves a number of tasks -- will be able to significantly influence the course of the war. [...] Using such aircraft systems as the F-16, we will be able to push back Russian aircraft and cover our ground troops from the air," he said.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said earlier that the fighter jets that Ukraine may soon receive would not change the course of the war. In his opinion, Ukraine needs to focus on ammunition, particularly long-range missiles.
Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu said 01 November 2023 that going by statistics Russian air defence systems will shoot down all F-16 fighter jets promised to Ukraine in a matter of 20 days. Speaking at a meeting in Moscow, Shoigu claimed a total of 1,400 air targets, including 37 Ukrainian planes and 6 ATACMS missiles, were shot down in air battles in October. "I would like to emphasise that 37 aircraft (that were shot down by Russian air defence in the past month) is almost twice the number of F-16 aircraft that are guaranteed to Ukraine. That is, with such work of our air defence system, it is about 20 days of work." He said Ukraine has run out of reserves, its soldiers are demoralised, and despite the supply of new NATO weapons, its army has been retreating.
The reputation of U.S. F-16 fighters is at risk of being severely damaged if Ukraine uses them in a special military operation zone, Military Watch Magazine wrote in an editorial. "Against the Russian Air Force there is a very high possibility that the class would have only very limited survivability due to its lack of stealth capabilities and its limited ability to engage top end heavyweight aircraft in the Russian fleet such as Su-35s, MiG-31s and Su-57s. Air to air engagements would likely be very one sided, and shooting down F-16s using its own fighters would add considerably to the prestige of the Russian Air Force and its defence sector... the United States has a great deal to lose from seeing its F-16s transferred to Ukraine, at a time when future orders for the class are already in question and the reputation of its air power is critical particularly in theatres such as East Asia." Alexandre Vautravers, editor-in-chief of the Swiss Military Review, said despite Russia's warning Moscow was unlikely to escalate the situation. "Every time a new weapon system has been given to Ukraine, we have heard a lot of rhetoric - but very little in the way of action from Russia," he told Al Jazeera. "I think the rhetoric today is not a sufficient deterrence."
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