2023 Counteroffensive Force Goals
In July 2022, Valery Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, member of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, general, and Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, First Deputy Chairman of the Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Lieutenant General, posed the question: what exactly does the Armed Forces of Ukraine need as help from partners for the coming year 2023? The only way to radically change the strategic situation is, without a doubt, to launch several consecutive, and ideally simultaneous counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the 2023 campaign.
Provided that the center of gravity is defined as control over the Crimean peninsula, it is logical to assume planning for 2023 an operation or a series of operations to seize the peninsula. Such planning should provide, first of all, the availability of the necessary set of troops. The military units and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already operating on the 2,500 km front from Kherson to Kovel.
The preparation of an offensive campaign requires the creation of one or more operational (operational-strategic) groups consisting of ten to twenty combined military brigades - depending on the plan and ambitions of the Ukrainian command. In the current situation, this can be done exclusively by replacing the main types of weapons of already existing brigades with modern ones provided by Ukraine's partners. Separately, the need to obtain from partners an additional number of missiles and ammunition, artillery systems, missile systems, EW means, etc. should be highlighted.
A convincing example of the correctness of this approach in 2022 was the successful efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to physically transfer hostilities to the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. This included a series of successful missile strikes on the enemy's Crimean air bases, first of all, on the Saka airfield. The task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 2023 is to make these feelings sharper, more natural and quite tangible for the Russians and in other occupied territories, despite the significant distance from the goals.
The preparation of an offensive campaign requires the creation of one or more operational (operational-strategic) groups consisting of ten to twenty combined military brigades - depending on the plan and ambitions of the Ukrainian command. A Ukrainian tank brigade might have three or four battalions with, between them, a hundred or so tanks and several thousand troops.
In the current situation, this can be done exclusively by replacing the main types of weapons of already existing brigades with modern ones provided by Ukraine's partners. Separately, the need to obtain from partners an additional number of missiles and ammunition, artillery systems, missile systems, EW means, etc. should be highlighted. All this will require the consolidation of efforts of all partner countries of Ukraine, a long time and significant financial expenses.
Not only and not so much certain names are meant, such as, for example, the MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A missile for the Himars MLRS. A comprehensive approach to the re-equipment of artillery, missile forces, tactical aviation and the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of their power must be applied. The discussion should be about the creation or building of capabilities, and not exclusively about the amount of weapons and equipment for the brigades planned for re-equipment.
Simply put, Russia's advantage is precisely the impunity that physical distance provides. This is the true center of gravity of the enemy. The picture can radically change with appropriate planning and proper work with Ukraine's partner countries. A comprehensive, with a proper long-term vision, equipping and re-equipping the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapon systems of the appropriate range should become the dream game-changer. Only if the balance is equalized in terms of the reach of the means of destruction and, thus, the specified center of gravity of the enemy is shaken, it is possible to talk about a turning point in the course of the war.
Ukraine can consider the acquisition of relevant weapons systems from partners only as a solution for the transition period. From the first days of the large-scale aggression of the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian side has faced the acute problem of restoring and establishing its own design and production of high-tech weapons samples. And the tactical and technical requirements for such samples should already include appropriate parameters, in particular, regarding the range of application. There is no doubt that Ukraine's national efforts in this direction open up unlimited opportunities for international military-technical cooperation with partner countries.
In September 2022, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhnyi, and Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi penned a strategy paper in which they described Crimea as the “centre of gravity” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a territory that would perpetually enable Russia to threaten Ukraine. “Crimea was and remains the basis for lines of communication on the southern strategic flank of Russian aggression,” they wrote. “The territory of the peninsula allows for the deployment of significant groups of troops and supplies of material resources.
The generals also said Ukraine would require “ten to twenty combined military brigades – depending on the plan and ambitions of the Ukrainian command”. As Ukraine no longer had access to enough Soviet-era weaponry to equip these brigades, the generals said, “this can be done exclusively by replacing the main types of weapons of already existing brigades with modern ones provided by Ukraine’s partners”. In late January 2023, Western allies made a key decision to supply Ukraine with offensive weapons, pledging 258 main battle tanks and hundreds of armored fighting vehicles. But those tanks would equip only three brigades in a NATO army, and only about four dozen have been delivered.
Alexander Vindman, a retired United States Army lieutenant colonel, argued against the “incremental escalation” Ukraine and Russia are currently following. “By the summer, Ukraine is likely to begin targeting more of Russia’s military infrastructure in Crimea in preparation for a broader campaign to liberate the peninsula,” he wrote in February 2023, and the West was providing only enough weapons to keep Ukraine fighting, not winning.
General Mark Milley, commander of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, described the complete removal of Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, as a “very, very difficult military task”.
Ukraine might content itself with defanging Crimea, at least for a while. Zaluzhny said in December 2022 that the army planned to capture Melitopol, in the Zaporizhia region, in order to reach the shores of the Sea of Azov. From there, it could effectively cut off Russia from Crimea by firing on the Kerch bridge.
Rumors about an upcoming counteroffensive by Kiev circulated for months, fueled by Ukrainian and Western officials alike. On 07 April 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that Kiev’s attack could begin in the next few weeks. In March 2023 Ukrainian Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov predicted that it would start in April or May and could develop in several directions. But excessively wet weather with floods complicated military logistics and the movement of heavy equipment. And partners' delays in transferring weapons mean that much of this equipment was late in arriving in Ukraine.
General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Kiev would have an extremely hard time recapturing all its former territories from Russia. Mikhail Podoliak, an aide to Zelensky, made the additional claim that Kiev intends to seize Crimea within seven months, while also stating that Ukraine “must eradicate everything Russian” on the peninsula. It was reported that Washington is pushing the Zelensky regime to start regaining lost territory to strengthen its position for future negotiations.
Bild quoted a “leading” NATO official 21 March 2023 as stating that the alliance’s analysts expect the conflict to reach a climax in the spring and summer. The official expressed confidence that heavy weaponry being delivered to Ukraine will be brought to bear in several counteroffensives as early as May. “The coming six months will be a key period in the war not only for Ukraine, but also for the allies,” the unnamed source predicted.
While refusing to go into detail regarding planned operations, the official asserted that Ukrainian forces will focus their efforts on the regions of Zaporozhye and Lugansk. The main objective of the offensives will be to “sever the land bridge to Crimea,” the NATO source added. The official claimed that Ukraine is likely to mount counteroffensives in other regions as well, which will either be genuine or merely serve as distractions to preoccupy the Russian military. According to the Bild report, NATO is not ruling out a scenario in which Ukraine would attempt to retake Crimea, which joined Russia in 2014 following a referendum. “Kiev has the right to recapture all Ukrainian territory,” the official insisted.
Crimea is not off the table for Ukraine and the upcoming spring counteroffensive will show what decisions have been made by Kiev in this regard, Rep. Mikie Sherrill said on 07 April 2023. "As far as Crimea, certainly this is territory that Russia took back from Ukraine, and that is something that the Ukrainians regard… as their sovereign territory and they are making the decisions as to where they are going to move forward. I don't think Crimea is off the table," Sherrill said during an event hosted by The Washington Post.
Ukrainska Pravda reported on a meeting held at Bankova Street [where the Office of the President is located] at the beginning of April 2023. attests to how seriously Zelenskyy takes the need to win anything. More than ten people were invited by Yermak to the meeting, people who have shown their effectiveness during the full-scale war. Zelenskyy had decided that these tried and tested people should deal with the task of equipping new brigades for the counteroffensive, with each assigned to a specific brigade. The participants in the meeting were responsible for a quick response: the person put in charge was responsible for finding out what the crews need. It does not matter how or where, but the issues must be resolved.
Classified documents regarding US and NATO plans to prepare the Armed Forces of Ukraine for an offensive against Russian forces revealed 07 April 2023 the timing of the preparation, acquisition of equipment and ammunition for the spring counteroffensive of nine brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are trained and equipped by the United States and allies. According to the materials, 6 of them were supposed to be ready by March 31, another 3 - by April 30, data on 3 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which Ukraine itself is preparing, are not given.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken did not rule out that the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may begin in the coming weeks. He noted 07 April 2023 that "there are two goals for many friends and partners of Ukraine" - to do everything so that Kiev can retake territories, including through a counteroffensive, and also to help Ukraine build up its potential "in the medium and long term."
Trenches are being dug in Crimea in anticipation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the Russian army had no one to put in these trenches.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a statement on Telegram that the leak is a "Russian information operation" and does not reveal Kiev's "actual operational plans," the Financial Times reported on 09 April 2023. Podolyak said the documents provided only a "statistical analysis of supplies, possible operational and tactical plans, as well as a large volume of fictitious information."
If Russia had obtained these classified documents, it would not post them online, because this will make Russia lose the source or sources that had provided these documents. There is no reason for Russia to let its enemies know that it obtained this intelligence, because this will also make its enemies change plans, making the hard-won military intelligence useless.
Ukraine’s political and military leadership made it clear that it defines victory as reclaiming its 1991 borders, which Russia had recognised. The United Nations and all of Ukraine’s Western allies also recognise those borders, which include Crimea.
The investigation by Al Jazeera’s Sanad news verification and monitoring unit found that between February and March 2023, the Crimean border and surrounding areas were transformed into a fortified barrier ahead of an expected spring counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces.
In particular, an extensive network of trenches and defences was constructed and now extends across the border villages of Crimea. Construction and expansion of several significant military bases also took place during the same period, according to the images provided to Sanad by SkySat and Planet.com.
“None of the trenches in any of the photos are 100 percent complete. All indicate ongoing work, as the trench networks are not connected and lack complete communications trenches,” Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at security company Global Guardian, told Al Jazeera.
Two US officials told the Post that the Pentagon leadership “restricted the flow of intelligence” in response to the leak. One source described the measures as unusually strict, and a testament to “a high level of panic” among the top brass. Both US officials and their foreign partners were “stunned” and even “infuriated” by the level of detail provided in the documents, which exposed how the US “spies on friends and foes alike,” the report says, suggesting the files could stir diplomatic unease.
A senior Ukrainian official told the Post that the leak had caused anger in Kiev, as the files provided insight into information it wanted to keep secret from Russia – namely “vulnerabilities related to ammunition shortages and other battlefield data.”
Meanwhile, a European intelligence official reportedly expressed concerns that due to the disclosures, the US could cut back on intelligence sharing with allies. While some of the documents made public were supposed to be shielded from foreign nationals, others had been cleared for transfer to the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, composed of the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the US Army in Europe, commented on recent intelligence leaks that say Ukraine's air defenses are running low: "The Russians already knew all this".
After forming up to 50 thousand Ukrainian soldiers in six months, Kyiv is going to launch an attack on the Crimea. According to the plan of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for this purpose, a group of 10-20 fresh combined arms brigades will be trained at NATO training grounds. The peninsula had been turned into a “center of gravity” for the entire special operation of the Russian Federation. Simply because the main lines of communications on the southern strategic flank of the Russian grouping pass through Perekop and Chongar. In addition, significant stocks of material resources have been accumulated in Crimea for conducting military operations on the mainland of Ukraine. Finally, "in Crimea, the main base of the Black Sea Fleet and a network of airfields for delivering air strikes to almost the entire depth of the territory of Ukraine."
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine believed that planning an “operation or series of operations” to seize the peninsula should begin right now. The main condition for success, Zaluzhny is sure, is the creation of the “necessary set of troops” in addition to the total number of the current Ukrainian army, which is now operating “on a 2,500-kilometer front from Kherson to Kovel.”
In this very additional “set of troops”, which Kiev expects to send to the Crimea in about six months, the general wants to include from 10 to 20 fresh, but trained at NATO training grounds and well-equipped with Western models of weapons, combined arms brigades. If it comes true, then in a few months, Kiev will launch from 25,000 to 50,000 battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers and officers into a decisive offensive in a southerly direction.
Their equipment, Zaluzhny believes, should be carried out "exclusively by replacing the main types of weapons of existing brigades with modern ones provided by Ukraine's partners." And he adds: “Of course, we are talking about the supply by Ukrainian partners for the Armed Forces of Ukraine of weapons systems or certain types of ammunition with an appropriate range. This refers not only and not so much to certain names, such as, for example, the MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A missile for the Himars MLRS. An integrated approach should be taken to re-equip artillery, missile forces, tactical aviation and the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of their power.”
David Axe noted 08 August 2022 "It seems likely manpower, rather than hardware, is the main reason the Ukrainians haven't stood up more armored units. It's not totally clear exactly how many tank brigades the army has. Maybe six. Maybe five. Maybe fewer. The Ukrainian army has a habit of keeping undermanned ”practically non-existentant” units on paper and occasionally touting them in the media.... So observers should look for hard evidence of a brigade in combat before concluding that brigade is real. By that standard the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 17th Tank Brigades definitely exist.... The 5th and 14th Tank Brigades, by contrast ... might be mostly fictional. A Ukrainian tank brigade might have three or four battalions with, between them, a hundred or so tanks and several thousand troops. ...."
Western countries have prepared almost 60,000 Ukrainian troops to participate in the counteroffensive. General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, said this at a press conference in Brussels 15 June 2023 following a regular meeting of a group created by Western countries that coordinates the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. "In general, due to international efforts, almost 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained for the current [offensive] operation [of Kyiv]," the American commander said 15 June 2023.
The EU countries have completed the training of at least 24,000 Ukrainian soldiers and will continue to train even more soldiers, as well as supplying Kyiv with more and more advanced types of weapons and ammunition. This was stated 15 June 2023 by the head of the EU foreign service, Josep Borrell, upon his arrival as a specially invited person at a meeting of NATO defense ministers with representatives of the defense industry of the alliance.
The timeline from January through April 2023 detailed twelve Ukrainian brigades under construction and the weapons they have been or will be supplied. Nine brigades are said to be armed and trained by the US and NATO allies, and six are said to be ready by the end of March, while the rest will be in action by the end of April. The brigades are said to require 253 tanks, 381 mechanized vehicles, 480 motor vehicles and more.
New mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being formed in the Zaporozhye region against the background of the successes of the Russian forces. This was announced on 23 January 2023 by the chairman of the movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov. "In order to avoid the collapse of the Zaporozhye Front, the Zelensky regime is urgently forming new formations on the territory of the Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Among them are the 23rd and 33rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he wrote in his Telegram channel . According to Rogov, in the 23rd separate mechanized brigade "in just a couple of weeks, over one and a half thousand people were recruited."
The intensity of hostilities in the Zaporizhia direction increased sharply on January 20. As Rogov previously reported, the village of Kamenskoye on the banks of the Dnieper was liberated, four settlements in the nearest suburb of Orekhov were taken under operational control. On January 20, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that during the offensive operations of the units of the Eastern Military District, the settlement of Lobkove in the Zaporozhye region was liberated. Thus, according to Rogov, the Russian forces in the Zaporizhia direction advanced in a strip of tens of kilometers to a depth of hundreds of meters to eight kilometers. He specified that "the first echelons of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been hacked." The Ukrainian security forces left their positions and moved to the second, third line of defense.
By mid-April 2023, only four to seven battalions of Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized and 77th Air Mobile Brigades can be located inside the city to the west of the Artyomovsk railway line. Due to combat losses, as well as a shortage of medicine and ammunition, the actual number of soldiers in these units is significantly lower than usual, amounting to about 250-300 per battalion. There are also three to five battalions of the 125th Territorial Defense Brigade and four or five battalions of the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade to the west of the railway line. Taking into account foreign mercenaries, Ukrainian National Guard units, Territorial Defense forces, and military units, the total number of Ukrainian troops occupying the city might be slightly over 6,000.
The remaining forces, numbering about 30,000, are either dispersed in nearby suburbs (Khromov, Krasnoye, Stupochki, Bogdanovka, and Minkovka), or have withdrawn from Artyomovsk to the neighboring town of Chasov Yar for resupply and rearmament, and cannot be quickly thrown into a counterattack due to heavy losses and a lack of equipment.
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