Russia - Ammunition Hunger
Bloomberg published an article 25 October 2024 citing figures from South Korean intelligence documents on military cooperation between the DPRK and the Russian Federation. They claim that since August 2023, the volume of deliveries from North Korea to Russia of 122-mm and 152-mm rounds for barrel artillery has reached 8 million units . Thus, the scale of the quantities claimed is comparable to the annual consumption of comparable ammunition by the entire Soviet artillery at the height of the Great Patriotic War ! The declared volume of completed deliveries of operational-tactical missiles is about 100 units. This is also a lot. Bloomberg also writes, citing South Korean intelligence, which itself refers to Ukrainian intelligence agencies, that "recently" allegedly 60% of the artillery ammunition used by the Russian army was produced in the DPRK . Another 10% was produced in Iran. And 30% was actually Russian.
On 20 August 2024, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi said that now the Russian army spends up to 45,000 ammunition every day, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine spends three times less. Syrsky announced this on the air of the telethon. From August 6 to 14, Russia spent 400,625 artillery ammunition in battles, which is an average of 44,500 per day. Instead, the Armed Forces used 131,461 shells, or 14,600 per day.
Accordingly, according to Sirsky, the ratio of ammunition consumption in July-August this year was 3:1, which indicates an improvement in the situation, if compared with January-May (then the ratio was 7:1, or about 70 thousand to 10 thousand spent shells per day). Statistics of the Ukrainian General Staff show that last year in October-December, Russia spent more than 30,000 artillery ammunition every day, and Ukraine - up to 10,000. Even earlier, in August-September 2023, the Russian Federation launched about 20,000 shells every day, and the Armed Forces - about 13,000.
Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu on 21 March 2024 visited enterprises of the military-industrial complex (DIC) in the Nizhny Novgorod region to check the progress of the state defense order. Shoigu also inspected the production of artillery and tank shells of various calibers, the range of production of which had increased.
“Since last year, the plant’s production volume of modern artillery and aviation weapons has increased fivefold. Such results were achieved thanks to the reactivation of production facilities at the enterprise, technical re-equipment and modernization of production lines for the production of shells with modern high-tech equipment,” said the Russian Ministry of Defense.
To achieve this, the total number of personnel of the enterprise has increased since 2022, increasing by more than 1.1 thousand people. More than 45 thousand square meters were reconstructed, modernized and put into operation. m of production space. Most parts of the plant operate around the clock on a three-shift work schedule with increased wages.
The Russian Defense Minister also inspected the production of ammunition for the Giatsint artillery complex. The head of the enterprise reported to him about the expansion of the plant's production capacity and the installation of new equipment in the workshop for the production of ammunition for artillery systems of 122 mm and 152 mm calibers.
He noted that serious changes had occurred at the enterprises after the previous inspection: the volume of production of components for artillery ammunition was increased by 22 times over the year . In addition, taking into account the commissioning of new facilities, enterprises are performing work ahead of production schedule.
According to Shoigu, the list of manufactured artillery shells has also been expanded, and the volume of production of modern artillery and aviation weapons has increased fivefold compared to 2023. The Russian defense department emphasized that such results were achieved thanks to the reactivation of production facilities and the modernization of production lines with modern equipment, as well as technical re-equipment.
Some 152-mm and 122-mm shells produced by the DPRK appeared in service with Russian artillerymen 20 October 2023. Previously, Western publications had repeatedly stated that North Korea has begun supplying weapons and ammunition for the needs of the Russian Armed Forces. Apparently, the ammunition is fresh, manufactured in the 2000s.
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik said North Korea has sent about 6,700 containers of weapons to Russia, accelerating the pace of deliveries since the summit in September. The containers are estimated to hold about 3 million 152 mm shells. And this is more than all the countries in the world have supplied to Ukraine in two years of conducting the SVO.
North Korea is supplying munitions to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine in return for satellite technology, South Korea said 01 November 2023. Pyongyang has supplied Moscow with more than one million artillery shells since early August, Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported. In return, Russia is assumed to be providing technology and know-how to North Korea, which is making a third effort to launch a satellite following two failures.
South Korean lawmaker Yoo Sang-bum said that Pyongyang has sent around 10 arms shipments to Russia by air, as well as via naval shipments between a North Korean east coast port and Russian ports, as the United States has previously claimed. More than one million artillery shells were transported by sea, originating from the port of Najin and reaching the Russian ports of Dunai and Vostochny, according to NIS. From there, they were conveyed by train to Ukraine, near the Toretsk ammunition depot.
It was estimated that these deliveries will keep Russian forces in Ukraine supplied for two months. Meanwhile, the West is struggling to keep pace in supplying Ukraine’s forces with ammunition. “North Korea is running its munition factories to full capacity to meet demand for military supplies to Russia and even mobilising residents and civilian factories to make ammunition boxes for exports,” Yoo said.
European sources reported in October 2023 that North Korea could send Russia up to 350,000 projectiles, which can be fired both by Russian artillery systems and by those transferred by North Korea and which will soon be deployed to the frontline. Western partners, who promised to deliver a million rounds to Ukraine, have so far been able to send fewer than 300,000, he adds. Russian and North Korean dictators, Putin and Kim, met in September in the Russian Far East. Recently, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov visited Pyongyang, following Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu, which made his second visit to the North Korean capital after the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine.
The Kremlin said on 17 October 2023 there was "no proof" North Korea was supplying Russia with weapons, after the US released images said to be of arms shipments from North Korea. "They report this all the time, without providing any proof," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies. On Friday 13 October 2023, the White House said North Korea had already delivered over 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Russia in recent weeks. They were meant to be used in the war in Ukraine. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in Russia for several days in September 2023, where he met President Vladimir Putin who spoke of "possibilities for military cooperation. The visit and consequent statements ignited Western fears over a potential arms deal.
Western publications continued to publish materials indicating the beginning of supplies of ammunition and weapons from the DPRK to Russia. Thus, based on the analysis of satellite images, the media report that the Russian cargo ships "Angara" and "Maria" , associated with military logistics, picked up cargo from the North Korean port of Rajin and delivered it to the port of the Russian coastal city of Danube .
According to the RUSI analysis., it is noted that both ships had not previously sailed on this route between North Korea and Russia before the start of high-level negotiations between the leaders of the two countries. In addition, both vessels turned off their automatic identification system (AIS) signals during transit.
Around the same time, at an ammunition depot near Tikhoretsk , near the Ukrainian border, ammunition storage pits were quickly expanded, into which trains with containers began to be unloaded, the color and size of which matched the cargo that arrived in the Danube from Rajin. Satellite images of freight trains on the border between Russia and the DPRK had previously been published , and an unprecedented increase in freight traffic between the countries has also been reported.
In war, there will always be a shortage of everything except body bags. Fighters are forced to adapt to painful economy. For them, the shortage of ammunition is the price of life. In war, artillery is seldom silent, so they need to be regularly resupplied with shells. During the first six months of the Russo-Ukraine War, the ammunition consumption of the Russian army was extremely alarming, reaching 2.5 times that of the Stalingrad battle during the Great Patriotic War. The ammunition reserves of most countries may not have considered such a large consumption and loss.
As early as World War II, the German army, which fought with the US and Soviet troops at the same time, believed that although the Soviet artillery fire was fierc, the most threatening thing was the American artillery, which could accurately hit the German army in the shortest time. Although it is reported that the Russian military industry can produce 160,000 rounds of artillery shells per month, and it is likely to continue to increase production capacity, it is obviously still unable to meet the consumption of the Russian army on the front line.
There are complex logistics and distribution systems. This is not the strong point of the Russian army. Whether it is various vehicles, loading and unloading, or overall scheduling, the Russian army is not good at it.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu promised 01 April 2023 to increase the supply of ammunition to Russian forces in Ukraine during a visit to the headquarters of Moscow's troops fighting in the country. In video published by the ministry on Telegram, Shoigu is shown presiding over a meeting with senior military officers, including General Valery Gerasimov, Russia's most senior soldier.
In the footage, Shoigu is shown telling colleagues that Russia would take steps to boost the supply of munitions to troops at the front. He says: "the volume of supplies of the most demanded ammunition has been determined. Necessary measures are being taken to increase them". Shoigu has in recent months come under bitter criticism from hardline advocates of Russia's campaign in Ukraine – including Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group – who have accused him of failing to supply sufficient munitions to troops on the frontline.
article titled "Russia's Ammunition Shortage Raises Questions About How Long the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Can Last" on the website of the US "Wall Street Journal" on the 22 November 2022 stated that Russia has been consuming its own equipment, ammunition and weapons at a rapid rate. Raising questions about the effectiveness and duration of its continued military operations against Ukraine. Both sides have suffered significant loss of life and material since the conflict erupted in February, and Western and Ukrainian officials and military analysts say there are signs that Russian military stockpiles of some key weapons systems, including missiles, are being depleted. reduce. And Moscow cannot use its entire stockpile of precision munitions, some of which must be kept in reserve for emergencies, including to deter NATO forces.
The report believed that Russia, one of the largest producers of military equipment in the world, was forced to turn to external suppliers, which once again shows that the Russian military industry is difficult to meet the requirements. Russian "Izvestia" reported on the 23 November that Russian Prime Minister Mishustin said at a meeting of the Russian Armed Forces Demand Guarantee Coordination Committee meeting on the 22nd that the task of guaranteeing military supplies has been formulated, approved and implemented.
Russia drove itself into ammunition hunger [boepripasny golod]. The peak of ammunition consumption by the Russian army was between May and June. At this time, the Russian army launched a fierce attack in the Donbass area, firing 10 times as many shells as the Ukrainian army every day. On average, 50,000 shells were used a day. Nearly 4 million rounds of shells were consumed in just one month. Since July, the Russian army has reduced its shelling. Some observations show that the artillery fire consumption of the Russian army was reduced by more than 70%.
In the Battle of Stalingrad, the Soviet Union and Germany invested more than 2 million troops, more than 2,000 tanks, more than 2,300 aircraft, and 25,000 cannons and mortars. During the entire Battle of Stalingrad, the Soviet army consumed a total of 9,500 wagons of ammunition, 6.3 million rounds of artillery shells, weighing 80,000 tons, and an average projectile weight of 13 kilograms. This is the result of including small and medium-caliber artillery shells. Because 13 kg is roughly equivalent to the weight of a 76/85 mm cannon shell.
If a single projectile weighed 26 kilograms, the Russian army would use 7.7 million rounds, or 200,000 tons of shells. This figure should be relatively close to the real situation of the Russo-Ukrainian war, that is, an average of 38,000 shells were fired every day. The Ukrainian army consumed 5,000 to 6,000 rounds of shells per day.
In the summer offensive in August 1951, the U.S. military organized an attack on the highlands in the Dayu Mountain and Baishi Mountain areas, using 126 105mm-155mm heavy howitzers and firing 360,000 shells in 9 days. On average, each gun needs to fire 2,860 rounds, and more than 300 rounds are fired every day. This high consumption of ammunition is known as "Van Fleet's ammunition" in history, that is, more than 100 guns fired 40,000 rounds of shells per day for 9 days.
Russia has millions of rounds of ammunition in its inventory that it accidentally blows up because of "cigarette butts" every year. In the past 10 years, there have been several large-scale ammunition depot explosions in Russia every year. For example, the No. 24 ammunition depot was exploded in Novgorod (Gorky City) four years ago, and one "balanced account" provided enough ammunition for 400,000 troops to fight for two months.
Russia had a strong background left by the Soviet Union. In 1986, the Warsaw organization’s ammunition reserve survey report showed that the entire Soviet Union and Eastern European camps had a total of 6 million tons of artillery ammunition reserves. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, Russia inherited nearly 5.5 million tons. In recent years More than 4 million tons of ammunition have been destroyed successively, and the Russian army may have stored 1.5 million tons of artillery shells before the start of the Russo-Ukraine War.
The Russian army even used artillery shells produced in 1974 on the battlefield, but they did not fail. The Ukrainian army seized a batch of 115mm shells used by the Russian T-62 tank on the Kherson battlefield. The T-62 tank is the first tank in the world to use a large-caliber smoothbore gun and a tail-stabilized long-rod armor-piercing shell. The inscriptions on the seized shells show that there are BM-5 fin-stabilized shell-piercing shells, produced in 1978. There is also the OF-37 fin-stabilized grenade, produced in 1974. This shows that old-fashioned shells can be stored for a long time.
According to the dynamics of the use of ammunition, by early 2023 a decline in their use by the Russian army by several times is noticeable. The Russian occupation troops are experiencing a shortage of ammunition, since the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation cannot fully provide their replenishment. By November 2022 Western experts calculated that the Russian army fired from 40,000 to 60,000 shells of various calibers on the Armed Forces of Ukraine per day. During relatively calm periods, this figure drops to about 24,000.
Such large-scale spending is explained by the fact that the Russian command protected the infantry. Russian soldiers trained to attack only when artillery and army aviation of the RF Armed Forces leave only a mess of fragments of steel and concrete from enemy fortifications.
Ukrainian Military expert Valery Ryabykh said 17 March 2023 the use of ammunition by the Russian troops today was about 15,000 shells per day, they had to abandon the tactics of saturation fire. “Now the use of ammunition by the Russian occupation forces has been significantly reduced - by several times. At the beginning of a full-scale aggression, the use of somewhere in the region of 70-80 thousand ammunition per day was observed. And just the main means of supporting the infantry was the use of so-called fire shafts, when everything was completely destroyed on a vast area due to the widespread use of artillery ammunition. Now the Russian occupation troops cannot afford this. We can talk about the use of about 15 thousand ammunition per day, and this number varies up or down depending on specific actions in a particular area, ”Ryabykh noted.
“At the moment, the aggressor state does not have enough industrial sites to ensure the replenishment of the necessary amount of ammunition from the wheels. The defense industry of the Russian Federation does not allow replenishing the amount of ammunition that is spent every day. And this, of course, is the result of an ill-conceived plan for this so-called “special operation”, which was designed for a short time. And now the aggressor country is driving itself into an ammunition hunger, ”Ryabykh summed up.
Yevgeny Prigozhin repeatedly accused the Russian defence ministry in February 2023 of deliberately starving his fighters of munitions in what he called a treasonous attempt to destroy the mercenary group. The increasingly vitriolic owner of the Russian mercenary firm the Wagner Group hit out at Russia’s military elite by publishing a grim image of dozens of his fighters he said were killed after being deprived of ammunition while battling Ukrainian troops. Prigozhin – founder of the Wagner private military company that is fighting on Moscow’s behalf in Ukraine – took a bitter public feud with the top army brass to a new level on Wednesday with the grisly photograph of corpses piled high, while laying blame for their deaths squarely with the top army brass. “This is one of the places where the bodies of those who have died are gathered,” Prigozhin told a prominent Russian military blogger in an interview. “These are guys who died yesterday because of so-called [artillery] ‘shell hunger’. Mothers, wives and children will get their bodies. There should be five times less [dead]. Who is guilty that they died? The guilty ones are those who should have resolved the question of us getting enough ammo.”
The Russian defense industry is developing at a very fast pace, it will produce three times more ammunition than they can supply to Ukraine. This was announced on 25 March 2023 by Russian President Vladimir Putin in an interview with journalist Pavel Zarubin on the air of the Rossiya-24 TV channel. "Russian production, the military-industrial complex of Russia is developing at a very fast pace, at a pace that many did not expect," the head of state stated. Speaking about the volume of weapons production in NATO countries that supply weapons to Ukraine, the president noted that over the same period of time, "Russian industry itself will produce three times more ammunition." "Even more than three times," he stressed.
The President drew attention to the fact that in one day Ukraine uses about a third of the volume of shells that are produced in the United States per month. "In the leading NATO countries, let's say, in the United States, based on the sources that we have, about 14-15 thousand shells of this caliber are produced monthly," the head of state said. "The Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to the calculations of our military, use up to 5,000 shells per day of hostilities," he said.
As Putin noted, according to Russian data, the United States "is planning to produce 42,000 next year, and 75,000 in 2025." shells. “We don’t know what will happen in 2025, but now, this year, 14-15 [thousand] despite the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine spend up to 5 thousand per day of hostilities,” he added.
The modernization of Russian defense enterprises made it possible to significantly increase the production of ammunition, by the end of the year the production of individual samples will increase by seven to eight times, the Russian Ministry of Defense said 28 March 2023 following a working visit by head of department Sergei Shoigu to the Chelyabinsk and Kirov regions. In addition, Shoigu set the task of increasing the production of the entire range of products in accordance with the schedule for the management of factories, the specialized bodies of the military administration and the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
On 28 March 2023, the head of the Russian military department, Sergei Shoigu, checked how the defense industry enterprises in the Chelyabinsk and Kirov regions fulfill contracts under the state defense order. The minister, in particular, assessed the production capacities involved in the production of products necessary to ensure the special operation. The heads of the enterprises reported to Shoigu on the implementation of the state defense order, the implementation of projects for the modernization and expansion of production capacities, and the increase in labor productivity. The results were claimed to be pretty high. Ammunition output had already been increased.
By one estimate, until the beginning of 2022, the production of 152-caliber shells in Russia was 1,7 million pieces per year (slightly more than 141 thousand pieces per month). In 2022, Russia almost doubled the output, to 3,3 million units per year (275 thousand per month), and already in January, Sergei Shoigu announced that by the end of 2023, the output would rise by another 5 times, to 416 million units per year.
The Russian army experienced "shell hunger" in the Ukraine war. During the summer 2022 offensive in the Donbass, the Russian Armed Forces spent too much ammunition: the army experienced an acute shortage of personnel, which it tried to offset with powerful artillery fire in the hope of capturing Ukrainian positions with small forces. This led to a rapid depletion of reserves. In the summer 2022, the RF Armed Forces spent up to 60,000 shells per day, in winter the "shooting" dropped to 10,000 per dsy. The production of shells in Russia was growing, but it was not publicly known exactly at what pace. Before the war, the country produced about 2,000 shells a day, so in order to overcome the shortage (while maintaining tactics based on a large consumption of ammunition), it was necessary to increase production by an order of magnitude.
In the summer of 2023, Russia may face the so-called "shell hunger" if it does not adjust before that time. Colonel Piotr Chernik, a Ukrainian military analyst, spoke about this on the air of Apostrophe TV. He said that by the beginning of the war, the Russians had stocks of more than a wide variety of shells - 122 and 152 millimeters in the first place - somewhere in the range from 15 to 20 million. They have already unequivocally used most of this or the Ukrainians knocked out their ammunition. Russian industry can operate at a rate of 125,000 shells per month, approximately 4,000-4,500, maximum five shells per day. Last summer, the barrages ranged from 45 to 60 thousand, it used to be up to 80 thousand a day, and now it’s barely 15.
In terms of accuracy, Ukrainian forces were at least ten times ahead of their enemy: for ten volleys of Russians - nine do not reach the exact target. For ten Ukrainian shots - nine are accurate.
Sergei Chemezov, director general of the state corporation Rostec, said 27 January 2023 that reports that Russia lacked shells and missiles are not true. He stressed that the country has increased the production of ammunition "by several orders of magnitude." Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov, in an interview with RIA Novosti, called unreliable Western media publications that Russian troops are experiencing a shortage of shells and missiles.
“The talk that our enemies are having today about Russia allegedly running out of missiles, shells, and something else is complete nonsense,” Chemezov said. He emphasized that, by order of the Ministry of Defense, the production of ammunition was increased "several times", and "for some types it has been increased by several orders of magnitude." At the same time, the head of Rostec admitted that during a military special operation in Ukraine , a large amount of ammunition of all types is consumed - cartridges, artillery and tank shells, as well as missiles.
There is no shell shortage in the Russian Armed Forces and there never will be: the country produces many times more large-caliber shells than some competitors. This was reported on 17 January 2023 by RIA Novosti with reference to an informed source. “There is no shell shortage in the Russian army and is not expected, including taking into account the existing stock of ammunition. The Russian monthly volume of production of the entire range of large-caliber shells is many times greater than the same indicator for the production of 155-mm shells in the United States , ”the agency’s interlocutor said. He added that the increase in the production of ammunition will continue.
President Vladimir Putin demanded to increase production volumes and reduce production time at the enterprises of the country's military-industrial complex (DIC) in the shortest possible time. The head of state stated this on September 20 during a meeting with the heads of defense industry plants. “It is necessary to increase production capabilities in the shortest possible time, maximize equipment utilization, optimize technological cycles and, without compromising quality, reduce production time,” Putin said.
On September 5, 2022, The New York Times published an article in which, citing US intelligence, it was reported that Russia was buying millions of artillery shells and missiles from North Korea. According to journalists, this indicates that “global sanctions have severely limited supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to rogue states for military supplies.” The disclosure came days after Russia received the first shipments of Iranian-made drones, some of which US officials said had mechanical problems. US government officials said Russia's decision to turn to Iran , and now North Korea, was a sign that sanctions and export controls imposed by the United States and Europe are hurting Moscow.
“Wide economic sanctions, at least so far, have not harmed Russia <…> failed to undermine the power of President Putin. But US officials said that when it came to Russia's ability to rebuild its military, the economic actions of Europe and the United States were effective. American and European sanctions have blocked Russia's ability to buy weapons or electronics for the production of these weapons, ”the journalists noted.
As Russia appeared to be running low on ammunition from the war in Ukraine, the U.S. suggested that Russia may send delegation to North Korea, seeking to offer food to Pyongyang, in exchange for weapons. The White House revealed that Russia was seeking to acquire more munitions from North Korea to bolster its war against Ukraine. In a press briefing on 30 March 2023 U.S. local time, the National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Vladimir Putin would likely send food to the regime in exchange for munitions.
Noting that they had new information that Russia was actively seeking to acquire additional munitions from North Korea, he said Moscow is also seeking to send a delegation to Pyongyang. He added that any arms deal between North Korea and Russia would violate a series of UN Security Council resolutions.
On North Korea's recent statements that they will not provide or sell arms to Russia, Kirby said the U.S. is continuing to monitor the situation closely. His comments came soon after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Slovakian national Ashot Mkrtychev for trying to arrange the sale of more than two dozen types of North Korean weapons and munitions to Russia. U.S Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said schemes like this show that Vladimir Putin is now turning to suppliers like North Korea and Iran as a last resort.
By April 2023, although the daily consumption of shells by the Russian army was likely to be less than 20,000 rounds, which is far less than the consumption of 70,000 to 80,000 rounds per day at the peak last year, it was still much higher than that of the Ukrainian army. 7,000 rounds, and the monthly consumption is about 90,000 rounds. And as the Ukrainian army was about to start the "spring counteroffensive", it is expected that the consumption of shells by the Russian and Ukrainian armies will increase significantly.
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