Operation Southern Spear - Venezuela Operations - 2025
US President Donald Trump confirmed on 15 October 2025 that he had authorized CIA operations on Venezuelan soil. The decision would allow intelligence operatives to carry out lethal operations against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose government Trump accused of running “narco-terrorist” cartels and flooding the US with cocaine and fentanyl. The authorization specifically granted the CIA the power to carry out sabotage, cyberwarfare, and targeted lethal actions against regime infrastructure and leadership figures, operating either unilaterally or in coordination with broader military efforts. Administration officials, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, justified the move as a necessary step to dismantle what they labeled a "narcoterrorist" state run by the Cartel de los Soles.
While the President opted for covert action as the primary mechanism for regime change—avoiding an immediate full-scale ground invasion—this decision was framed by an aggressive overt military campaign that had already begun weeks earlier. The military pressure intensified significantly in November 2025 with the formal commencement of "Operation Southern Spear." On November 13, 2025, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group arrived in the Caribbean to support the operation, representing the largest U.S. military projection in the region since the invasion of Panama in 1989. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the deployment was intended to cut off the financial lifelines of the Maduro regime by physically interdicting drug routes in both the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. This naval blockade effectively served as the anvil to the CIA's hammer, squeezing the Venezuelan government from the outside while covert operatives worked to destabilize it from within.
Despite the aggressive kinetic actions, the strategy also included a diplomatic off-ramp. On November 19, 2025, reports surfaced that the White House had reopened back-channel negotiations with Caracas. These discussions reportedly involved high-level intermediaries and centered on a proposal where Maduro would agree to step down following a transition period in exchange for security guarantees. This diplomatic track suggested that the lethal covert action and military posturing were largely designed as leverage to force a negotiated surrender rather than to commit the United States to a protracted conventional war in South America.
President Gustavo Petro backed a proposal for Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to hand power to a transitional authority that would organise new elections while receiving guarantees against prosecution. Colombian Foreign Minister Rosa Villavicencio told Bloomberg such assurances could enable a smooth handover as Washington escalated pressure after designating the Cartel de los Soles a terrorist group effective Nov. 24 which could justify US military action. Reports of CIA covert operations inside Venezuela deepened concern as Maduro warned the US to abandon its “criminal ambitions” while Trump said he would “probably talk” to Maduro yet refused to rule out force.
US-Venezuela tensions approached a breaking point with back-channel communications between Washington and Caracas virtually silent, according to two sources familiar with US Venezuela policy speaking with POLITICO National Security Daily - November 20, 2025. Maduro's attempts at peaceful resolution appeared futile as diplomatic options narrowed. Trump effectively set a deadline by designating the Cartel de los Soles (criminal networks linked to Venezuela's military) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization effective 24 November 2025. Venezuela made no offer meeting US demands for Maduro's immediate departure. The New York Times had reported Trump rejected a proposal for Maduro to step down in 2-3 years, but sources said this offer was made months ago and any deal keeping Maduro in power remained unacceptable.
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated Trump "is always willing to hear people out" but military options remain available. Though US strikes aren't guaranteed, the ongoing military buildup increased pressure for decisive action. "The administration needs to find a win, because you can't use this amount of force and then go home without an outcome," said Frank Mora, former US ambassador to the OAS. "Time is running out."
US President Donald Trump said 17 November 2025 he was open to speaking with Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and would not rule out deploying US troops, while also saying he'd be "OK" with launching anti-drug strikes inside Mexico – remarks that heightened tensions amid the major US military buildup in the region. "At a certain period of time, I'll be talking to him," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked if he would speak to Maduro, while adding that the Venezuelan president "has not been good to the United States". Asked if he would rule out US troops on the ground in Venezuela, Trump replied: "No I don't rule out that, I don't rule out anything." He added "We just have to take care of Venezuela. They dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country from prisons."
"Operation Southern Spear" is a new U.S. military mission announced on 13 November 2025, by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The operation's stated purpose is to "remove narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere" and secure the U.S. homeland from illicit drug trafficking. It is being led by U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) and a new, dedicated task force, Joint Task Force Southern Spear. Secretary Hegseth stated the mission was "ordered" by President Donald Trump.
The US Senate rejected a resolution to block President Donald Trump from attacking Venezuela without congressional authorization on 06 November 2025. A majority was needed for approval, but only 49 senators backed the resolution, and 51 voted against. The resolution stated that "Congress has the sole power to declare war." "Congress has not declared war upon, nor enacted a specific statutory authorization for use of military force against, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, nor any transnational criminal organizations," the resolution noted.
The last reported location [as of 04 November 2025] of the USS Gerald R. Ford was off the coast of Morocco, near the Strait of Gibraltar. The aircraft carrier was ordered to head to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility in the Caribbean to support counter-narcotics efforts, and after transiting the Strait of Gibraltar, some reports claim it had remained in a position just west of Morocco since 04 November 2025. Howard Altman reported in Thear Zone : "the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has not moved significantly from a position just west of Morocco in North Africa, the Navy confirmed" 06 November 2025.
The Automatic Identification System (AIS) is used by the military primarily as a maritime domain awareness (MDA) tool for monitoring vessel movements and ensuring security. While mandatory for large commercial and passenger ships, many smaller vessels (including some military, fishing, and recreational boats) are not required to carry AIS, or may switch it off for security or operational reasons, making them "invisible" to the system. The Ford strike group activated AIS during transit of the Strait of Gibraltar, but had been sailing without AIS transmissions dince departing Croatia. The "holding" off Morocco is an artifact of AIS being switched back off, not the actual location of the strike group.
Sources told CNN on 06 November 2025 that Trump officials told lawmakers on 05 November 2025 that the US was not currently planning to launch strikes inside Venezuela and does NOT have a legal justification that would support attacks against any land targets right now. CNN's Zachary Cohen reported "Lawmakers were told during the classified session that the opinion produced by DOJ's Office of Legal Counsel to justify strikes against suspected drug boats, first reported by CNN last month, does not permit strikes inside Venezuela itself or any other territories, per four sources.... The Trump admin is seeking a separate legal opinion from DOJ that would provide a justification for launching strikes against land targets without needing to ask Congress to authorize military force, a US official said."
The Miami Herald newspaper reported 01 November 2025, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the United States may launch air strikes against targets in Venezuela in the coming hours or days. At the same time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called this report fake. The United States is deploying a troop contingent to the Caribbean, which, according to preliminary data, could number approximately 16,000 troops, US media reported, citing Pentagon data.
"The Trump administration has identified targets in Venezuela, including military installations used for drug smuggling. If President Trump decides to launch airstrikes, these targets would send a clear signal to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro that it's time for him to go," the Wall Street Journal reported 31 October 2025. The White House was said to have identified ports, maritime facilities and airports as possible targets.
But on 01 November 2025 Trump denied he was considering strikes inside Venezuela, appearing to contradict his own comments from last week and amid intensifying expectations that Washington may soon expand drug-trafficking-related operations. When asked by reporters on Air Force One if media reports that he was considering strikes within Venezuela were true, Trump said: “No.” At that time, the American force was clearly insufficient to conduct a full-fledged military operation to overthrow the Venezuelan government. Venezuela had a fairly large and well-armed army by regional standards, equipped with modern aircraft and air defense systems. Furthermore, this Latin American country had a massive Bolivarian militia, which was essentially a people's militia.
According to an exclusive report by Sasha Ingber on Substack, a U.S. source has revealed new details about the Trump administration's deliberations on Venezuela. The administration reportedly believed that deposing President Nicolas Maduro would both reduce drug trafficking into the U.S. and, by enabling the lifting of sanctions, "open up the largest economy in South America." The Trump administration discussed the possibility of a negotiated stepping down of Nicolás Maduro as Venezuelan president while maintaining his personal security guarantees, The Atlantic reported, citing sources involved in contacts with Caracas officials. According to their data, the Venezuelan leader is considering the option of "comfortable exile" if the United States removes the reward for his arrest, grants amnesty, and helps negotiate admission to a third country. "If there's enough pressure and enough sweet terms, anything can be discussed with Maduro," said a source who spoke with officials from both sides. Proponents of this scenario believe that a managed transition of power would avoid bloodshed and preserve the unity of Venezuela's political elite.
If President Trump authorizes an operation, the source stated, "the plan right now is for targeted special operations missions like Grenada," referencing Operation Urgent Fury in 1983. Furthermore, the report claimed the administration wanted to capture a drug boat, after having already destroyed at least 15. The source expressed concern that officials are "looking for intelligence to support a policy decision that has already been decided," comparing the situation to the "2003 run up to Iraq."
The New York Times reported that the US administration has developed a number of options for action in Venezuela, but Donald Trump has not yet decided on how to proceed or whether to proceed at all. According to officials, the president is reluctant to approve operations that could put US troops at risk or end in failure.
According to The New York Times, three scenarios for military intervention in Venezuela:
- The first option involves airstrikes against military targets , some of which are allegedly linked to drug trafficking, in order to deprive the Venezuelan army of support for Maduro. US air forces could strike key military targets in Venezuela. Through this, it was planned to destroy Maduro's confidence in security and force him to flee. Sources in Washington believed Madurot's insecurity may prompt him to leave the country or agree to negotiations. The U.S. had allegedly been mapping infrastructure targets (government, civilian, and criminal) tied to drug trafficking. A special operations command vessel, operating under commercial cover, left Ponce, Puerto Rico. This vessel is said to be capable of launching 150 operators (Delta Force or Seal Team Six) along with helicopters from the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment. However, some analysts are concerned that such an action could cause public reaction and further unite the population around Maduro. Critics of this approach warn that it could backfire, rallying supporters around the embattled leader.
- The second approach entails the US deploying a special forces unit, the CAG or NSWDG, "Delta" troops or the famous SEAL Team 6 unit, to forcibly capture or eliminate Maduro. Under this option, the Trump administration would attempt to circumvent prohibitions on assassinating foreign leaders by claiming that Maduro is, first and foremost, the head of a narco-terrorist group. This is a continuation of the arguments the US uses to justify airstrikes on vessels it claims are involved in drug smuggling.
- A third option involves a far more complex plan: sending military forces to seize airfields and at least some of Venezuela's oil fields and infrastructure. The third scenario involves a large-scale military operation - American paratroopers taking control of Venezuela's airfields and oil fields. Through this, the US aims to establish control over the country's economic resources and logistical routes. However, the NYT writes that this option is the most dangerous for the US military and could lead to significant losses, especially if implemented in urban environments like Caracas.
Trump aides asked the Justice Department for additional guidance that could provide legal justification for any military action beyond the current campaign to destroy drug-smuggling vessels without providing evidence. Such guidance could include legal justification for targeting Maduro without requiring congressional authorization for the use of military force, let alone a declaration of war. While the guidance was still being drafted, some administration officials expected it to identify Maduro and his senior security officials as key figures in the Cartel of the Suns, which was designated a terrorist organization in the United States. The Justice Department was expected to argue that this designation makes Maduro a legitimate target, despite long-standing U.S. legal prohibitions on assassinating national leaders.
Donald Trump was reportd by the Times to be in no hurry to make decisions that put American soldiers at risk. Therefore, the plans include the use of drones and long-range weapons. According to sources, these options could be implemented through the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, which could arrive in the Caribbean Sea in mid-November with more than 75 military aircraft and about 5,000 military personnel. According to the newspaper, Trump was delaying a final decision until this air carrier reached the Venezuelan coast. The president suppodedy had not yet made a clear decision on military actions, as he did not desire an operation with a high probability of failure. However, his advisors emphasized the need to take decisive action against Maduro's regime.
The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States CELAC at its 2014 summit in Havana formally declared the region a “Zone of Peace,” a foundational agreement committing its 33 member nations to peaceful conflict resolution and the eradication of foreign military bases. This declaration is a cornerstone of the region’s contemporary geopolitical identity, representing a collective effort to overcome a long history of foreign interventions and to consolidate its sovereignty. In a significant shift from its historical alignment with Washington, Colombia’s Foreign Ministry, under the administration of President Gustavo Petro, reaffirmed its commitment to the principles of the Zone of Peace.
CELAC convened an emergency virtual meeting of foreign ministers on September 1, 2025, in response to major U.S. military/naval deployments in the southern Caribbean near Venezuela. Rosa Villavicencio, Foreign Minister of Colombia — which was holding the pro-tem presidency of CELAC at the time — speaking for CELAC in its emergency meeting, stated: “There is a need to keep Latin America as a land of peace, free from any intervention and in strict adherence to United Nations declarations and to the preservation of peace and sovereignty.... We reject the logic of intervention, we reaffirm the Charter of the United Nations, we demand that all legitimate concerns be addressed through diplomatic and multilateral channels, and we offer our platforms to facilitate Latin American and Caribbean solutions to the challenges of our common home.”
The decision by many European and Latin American leaders to skip the 4th EU-CELAC Summit in Santa Marta, Colombia (scheduled for November 9-10, 2025) was influenced by concerns about the stance of Donald Trump and US policy in the region. Key leaders who were confirmed to be absent included Ursula von der Leyen [President of the European Commission], Friedrich Merz [Chancellor of Germany], Emmanuel Macron [President of France], Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, Claudia Sheinbaum [President of Mexico], Javier Milei [President of Argentina] along with leaders from countries such as Chile and Peru were reported to be absent.
Multiple outlets (Bloomberg, Financial Times, Euronews) report that European officials were “wary of upsetting” Trump due to his recent actions: sanctions against Colombian President Gustavo Petro, authorizing U.S. military operations in the Caribbean, and public accusations of drug-trafficking ties.
In the “Santa Marta Declaration” [the final joint statement] issued at the IV CELAC–EU Summit, “Leaders reaffirmed their adherence to the principles and purposes of the Charter of the United Nations, in particular the sovereign equality of states and respect for territorial integrity and political independence, and reiterated their opposition to the threat or use of force and to any action not in accordance with international law and the Charter of the United Nations.” The document “makes criticisms” (though not naming by country) of recent military-actions in the Caribbean, concerns over narco-trafficking operations, and the legitimacy of electoral processes in certain states.
Brazil reinforced its northeastern border with 10,000 troops due to regional instability, particularly concerns about the situation with Venezuela and the ongoing border dispute with Guyana. Separately, Argentina has also increased its border security presence with Brazil in response to the fallout from a large-scale operation against organized crime in Rio de Janeiro, aimed at preventing the movement of criminals into its territory. Brazil continues to implement long-term border security strategies, including the use of the Integrated Border Monitoring System (SISFRON). The Caribbean Sea once again became a stumbling block in US-UK relations. London halted intelligence sharing with Washington amid the attacks on Venezuelan boats. The British, who had territories in the region, were trying to distance themselves from US President Donald Trump's policies, comments American political scientist Malek Dudakov.
"Intelligence cooperation between the two countries has already declined significantly in recent times. [The UK's foreign intelligence agency] MI6 isn't providing the Americans with all the information it has on the Ukrainian trail. Meanwhile, the White House is threatening to dismantle the Five Eyes organization, which unites the intelligence services of the US and Anglosphere countries. And it's accusing Britain of having ties to China." — the expert notes in his post on the Telegram channel 12 November 2025.
In the same Caribbean, the Chinese recently purchased an abandoned American base on the islands of Antigua and Barbuda, Dudakov points out. The US feared that Chinese intelligence services will monitor them from the British colony. The Chinese are building a second port and an airfield on the islands.
Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs said 06 November 2025 "We are now witnessing something incredible happening in the Caribbean that would have been unthinkable just 10 years ago. Russian warships arrived in the waters of Venezuela not to enter the port, but to declare their geopolitical intentions. It's not just about the demonstration of military equipment or naval maneuvers - we are witnessing a fundamental restructuring of forces in the hemisphere, which the United States took for granted," said Sachs. It is not apparent whereof Sach spoke as there were no recent reports of Russian warships in the region. In July 2024, three Russian naval vessels, including the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the oil tanker Akademik Pashin, visited the port of La Guaira, Venezuela, as part of military cooperation exercises and as a demonstration of Russian naval power in the Western Hemisphere. This followed a previous stop in Havana, Cuba, and included drills in the Atlantic Ocean. The Chinese naval hospital ship CNS Silk Road Ark, deployed on the Harmony 2025 mission in early September 2025, called at Nicaragua's Port of Corinto for a five-day technical stop.
On 12 November 2025, the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Russia and Venezuela entered into force after both chambers of the Russian Parliament urged the international community to condemn the “provocative actions of the United States” against Venezuela. On 27 October 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the law ratifying the agreement, which has also been ratified by President Maduro. The document expands bilateral cooperation in areas related to energy, mining, transportation, communications, security, and the fight against terrorism and extremism. Russian Affairs Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on 11 November 2025 denied reports that Venezuela had requested military assistance from Moscow. “No, we have not received any request,” he said, adding that Russia “is prepared to fully meet the mutually enshrined obligations in the agreement with our Venezuelan friends.”
The Western Hemisphere was a primary arena for U.S.-China strategic competition. Recent analysis indicates China continues to expand its economic and political influence in Latin America through trade, infrastructure projects, and legal agreements. In response, some U.S. strategists are advocating for a "continental fortress" approach, focusing on consolidating U.S. influence and security in the Western Hemisphere as a foundation for projecting power globally, particularly to counter China. The U.S.-Russia relationship is widely described as adversarial, with significant friction over the established international order. A key area of tension is arms control; Russia has suspended its participation in the New START treaty (though both sides are still observing its limits), and there has been discussion from both nations about resuming nuclear testing, which challenges long-standing norms.
The phrase "Paper Tiger" (a translation of the Chinese zhilaohu) has a long history in geopolitics. It was famously used by Mao Zedong to describe the United States, arguing it was an opponent that appeared powerful but was actually ineffectual. The term has been used by various figures since—including recently by both President Trump and Vladimir Putin to describe each other's countries. The U.S. maintains a robust, though unofficial, defense relationship governed by the Taiwan Relations Act. This includes significant Foreign Military Sales (totaling over $28 billion between 2015-2025) and training to help Taiwan counter "gray zone" tactics and maintain its self-defense. This policy is often referred to as "strategic ambiguity."
The Monroe Doctrine declared in 1823 warned European powers to stay out of the Western Hemisphere. In late October 2025, Maduro reportedly sought “expanded military cooperation” with Russia, China and Iran to counter “the escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela.” On 31 Octobr3 2025 the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia stated: "We support the leadership of Venezuela in defending its national sovereignty, taking into account the dynamics of the international regional situation. We stand ready to respond appropriately to the requests of our partners in light of emerging threats."
Radical scenarios cannot be ruled out, in which the situation could develop as if it were the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. If, for example, in response to the delivery of American systems to Ukraine, Russia could decides to deploy similar systems in Venezuela. If Washington declined to take action, it will be interpreted as a lack of resolve and fear of Caracas' allies, primarily Moscow.
The US's refusal to carry out its threats would be perceived internationally as a sign of weakness. This is why, observers noted, the situation around Caracas had reached a stage where any move by the US administration is interpreted as strategically significant. Phil Ganson, a senior analyst at the non-governmental International Crisis Group and a longtime Venezuelan resident, emphasized, it will be a "triumph for Maduro" if the US turns back the USS Ford striek group. "After that, he could forever say: 'I fought back against the United States, I fought back against the empire, and the empire retreated,'" Ganson emphasized.
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