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Venezuela - Shaping Operations

In U.S. military doctrine, "shaping operations" are activities conducted continuously during "Phase Zero" (peacetime) to influence the environment, build partner capacity, and set conditions favorable for potential future operations or to prevent conflicts from escalating into full-scale warfare. Shaping operations are designed to "shape perceptions and influence the behavior of both adversaries and allies". They aim to create and preserve conditions for success in any potential future decisive operations, thereby dictating the time and place for engagement and providing the commander with more options. The ultimate goal is to promote stability, deter aggression, and prevent conflict.

Phase Zero is a doctrinal concept referring to the environment of "relative peace" before a major crisis or conflict erupts. It is part of the U.S. military's five-phase planning construct (which typically moves from Phase 0 to Phase 4: Stabilize/Phase 5: Enable Civil Authority).

A coalition of 108 U.S. civil rights and advocacy organizations demanded a congressional investigation into the series of lethal maritime assaults authorized by the Trump administration in the Caribbean between September and October 2025. In a letter sent 18 October 2025 to leaders of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees, the groups denounce unlawful extrajudicial killings carried out under the guise of anti-narcotics operations.

The letter cites five separate U.S. military strikes on small vessels. The first incident, on September 2, left 11 people dead after a U.S. warship repeatedly rammed a boat. Subsequent strikes on September 15, 16, October 3, and October 14 killed 13 more people in total. None of the victims have been publicly identified, and U.S. officials have not provided evidence proving they were combatants. President Trump later bragged about the operation, stating that three boats had been destroyed rather than two.

The organizations argued that the administration violated both U.S. constitutional limits and international law, noting there is no proof the targeted vessels posed any threat or were armed. They criticize the White House for bypassing standard interdiction and arrest procedures in favor of lethal force, and for deploying naval assets to the Caribbean without congressional approval.

Administration officials have defended the killings as part of a broader campaign against “narcoterrorists,” but have failed to present any legal justification or strategy. Secretary Rubio vowed during recent trips to Mexico and Ecuador that the U.S. would keep hunting suspects and using force.

The letter also linked these foreign actions to rising domestic militarization, pointing to National Guard and military deployments in major U.S. cities to police protests and crime. Critics warn this reflects a dangerous expansion of executive power and military involvement in civilian affairs.

The signatories argue that these Caribbean strikes are part of a failed escalation of the War on Drugs, which has funneled trillions into militarized enforcement while fueling violence and human rights abuses. Despite harsher drug policies, U.S. overdose deaths surged 60% between 2018 and 2022, driven by synthetic opioids like fentanyl. Meanwhile, funding for addiction treatment and public health has been slashed.

1. Tensions reached a boiling point in early September 2025 when the U.S. military conducted its first lethal strike on September 2 against a speedboat in international waters, which Trump claimed was operated by Tren de Aragua members carrying drugs from Venezuela, resulting in the deaths of 11 individuals. Maduro vehemently denounced the action as an unprovoked attack on civilians, accusing the U.S. of fabricating evidence — such as AI-generated videos—and mobilizing 25,000 troops along borders while activating militias and declaring a state of maximum readiness. Trump responded by warning that Venezuelan aircraft overflying U.S. vessels would be shot down, and reports emerged of internal White House debates, with hawks like Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushing for further aggression while others explored backchannel diplomacy through envoy Richard Grenell. Despite Trump's public rhetoric, some softer measures persisted, such as allowing Chevron to continue limited oil operations in Venezuela and coordinating deportation flights, suggesting a mix of pressure and pragmatic engagement.

   Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in an interview on September 3 that he watched the video live and that those under his command knew “exactly who was in that boat, we knew exactly what they were doing, and we knew exactly who they represented, and that was Tren de Aragua,” referring to a Venezuelan gang. Hegseth went on to say that “this is a deadly serious mission” for the Trump administration and that the operation “won’t stop with just this strike, anyone else trafficking in those waters who we know is a designated narcoterrorist will face the same fate.”

2. On September 15, 2025, the Venezuela situation escalated further as Trump announced a second U.S. strike in the southern Caribbean, killing three "male terrorists" aboard another vessel allegedly transporting narcotics from Venezuela to the U.S., marking the latest in a series of kinetic operations that have drawn widespread condemnation. Maduro, speaking earlier that day in Caracas, labeled the strikes as aggressive attempts to provoke a "major war" for regime change and oil, urging de-escalation and offering cooperation on anti-drug efforts, while lashing out at Rubio for seeking to "stain Trump's hands with blood." The announcement, posted on Truth Social with video footage, has intensified fears of broader conflict, with Trump cryptically stating "we'll see what happens" when asked about potential strikes inside Venezuela, fueling speculation about inland targets as part of a wider campaign to dismantle Maduro's alleged cartel ties. U.S. intelligence maintains that these operations target confirmed narcoterrorists, though details on drugs seized or weapons used remain scarce, and legal experts question the strikes' compliance with international law given the lack of imminent threats or congressional authorization.

3. The third fatal attack on a vessel allegedly smuggling drugs came 19 September 2025. Trump posted on social media that the strike had killed three people who were affiliated with a designated terrorist organisation. On October 3, the US government confirmed that four people had been killed when its forces destroyed a boat allegedly involved in drug trafficking on the high seas not far from Venezuela. On 14 October 2025, the US killed six people on board a boat in international waters near the Venezuelan coast, Trump confirmed on social media. In his post, he wrote, “Intelligence confirmed the vessel was trafficking narcotics, was associated with illicit narcoterrorist networks, and was transiting along a known route for smuggling.”

4. On October 3, the US government confirmed that four people had been killed when its forces destroyed a boat allegedly involved in drug trafficking on the high seas not far from Venezuela.

5. October 14n, the US killed six people on board a boat in international waters near the Venezuelan coast, Trump confirmed on social media. In his post, he wrote, “Intelligence confirmed the vessel was trafficking narcotics, was associated with illicit narcoterrorist networks, and was transiting along a known route for smuggling.”

6. On 16 October 2025, the United States military carried out another strike on an alleged Venezuela drug smuggling vessel. Officials did not offer additional details about the incident, in which they said there were some survivors — unlike the previous boat bombings. The US had carried out at least six strikes on boats in Venezuelan waters since the start of September, killing some 27 people, after allegations that they were carrying narcotics. The admiral overseeing the Trump administration’s controversial campaign in the Caribbean Sea announced his early departure Admiral Alvin Holsey of the Southern Command would be retiring at the end of the year, less than a year into the post, which is usually three years long.

   Trump said two surviving “narcoterrorists” from a semi-submersible vessel destroyed by the US military in the Caribbean will be sent to their home countries of Ecuador and Colombia. “It was my great honor to destroy a very large DRUG-CARRYING SUBMARINE that was navigating towards the United States on a well known narcotrafficking transit route,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. US military actions against vessels in the region hadkilled at least 29 people.

7. On 17 October 2025, a seventh strike came shortly thereafter. While the Trump administration had linked previous attacks to Venezuela, it identified the three people killed in the seventh strike as members of the National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian rebel group.

8. On 22 October 2025 a strike launched by the US military killed two people on an alleged drug-trafficking vessel in the Pacific Ocean, US War Secretary Pete Hegseth said. The latest strike, bringing the death toll to at least 34 from attacks that began last month, marked an expansion of what US President Donald Trump described as an "armed conflict" with South America's drug cartels that had, until now, targeted vessels in the Caribbean.

9. On 22 October 2025, War Secretry Hegseth revealed the military had struck another vessel in the eastern Pacific, with three more people killed. “The vessel was known by our intelligence to be involved in illicit narcotics smuggling, was transiting along a known narco-trafficking route and was carrying narcotics,” Hegseth said, without providing evidence. There had now been at least nine strikes in total, bringing the total known death toll to 37. Trump touted what he called a great success in the US military’s efforts against alleged Venezuelan “drug boats,” claiming that the flow of narcotics coming in by sea has fallen to “like 5% of what they were a year ago.” Trump teased land strikes amid stand-off with Venezuela. He added that “land is going to be next,” without providing further details on when and where US attacks could fall.

10. On 23 October 2025 six people were been killed in a US strike on a boat in the Caribbean Sea, in what War Secretary Pete Hegseth has described as an anti-drug smuggling operation. The Department of War carried out a “lethal kinetic strike” on a Tren de Aragua (TdA) vessel in neutral waters overnight, Hegseth wrote on X the next day. TdA is a transnational criminal organization from Venezuela. “If you are a narco-terrorist smuggling drugs in our hemisphere, we will treat you like we treat Al-Qaeda,” he added, promising to continue to “hunt down” and “kill” more alleged traffickers.

11. On 27 October 2025 the Department of War carried out three lethal kinetic strikes on four vessels operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations (DTO) trafficking narcotics in the Eastern Pacific. The four vessels were known by our intelligence apparatus, transiting along known narco-trafficking routes, and carrying narcotics. Eight male narco-terrorists were aboard the vessels during the first strike. Four male narco-terrorists were aboard the vessel during the second strike. Three male narco-terrorists were aboard the vessel during the third strike. A total of 14 narco-terrorists were killed during the three strikes, with one survivor. All strikes were in international waters with no U.S. forces harmed. Regarding the survivor, USSOUTHCOM immediately initiated Search and Rescue (SAR) standard protocols; Mexican SAR authorities accepted the case and assumed responsibility for coordinating the rescue.

12. One announcement on October 28 reported four strikes in one day, resulting in 14 deaths.
13. November 4, 2025: The U.S. military struck another vessel in the eastern Pacific, killing two people on board.
14. November 6, 2025: War Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the 17th known strike, killing three people aboard a vessel in the Caribbean, bringing campaign's death toll to at least 70.
15. November 10, 2025: War Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US military targeted two vessels in the eastern Pacific Ocean the previous day, killing six people, bringing campaign's death toll to at least 76. “These vessels were known by our intelligence to be associated with illicit narcotics smuggling, were carrying narcotics, and were transiting along a known narco-trafficking transit route in the Eastern Pacific,” he wrote in a social media post. “Both strikes were conducted in international waters, and three male narco-terrorists were aboard each vessel. All six were killed. No US forces were harmed.”

The lethal strikes conducted by the U.S. military, which differ from the U.S. Coast Guard's traditional, nonlethal interdiction and apprehension operations. The Coast Guard also conducts numerous, record-breaking drug seizures and offloads throughout the year, but these typically involve a different protocol of law enforcement rather than direct military strikes.